The rally has only started. Wyckoff accumulation + fundamentalsAs we expected American Dollar rallied last week. The price forms Wyckoff accumulation on a daily chart. It makes sense to look for new entries when the short-term oscillator gets oversold. I got so many questions last week about DXY and most of them were like – ‘Why do you expect a rally if US data is so weak?’. Well, the dollar is not just a currency, it is a safe haven. Besides, it is undervalued, unlike gold. We still have a lot of risks related to coronavirus and its impact on the economy. It can trigger a significant rally in DX. Besides, there is a strong setup in this market:
The weekly pinch-paunch indicator is 58 (a sign of trend change)
The valuation model – undervalued
COT – bullish
Intermarket forecast – bullish
Seasonal – bottom at the beginning of October
With that in mind, we want to look for and take buy signals using any trading entries.
Dollar_index
Is It Bitcoin Time? Dollar Index at 2020 LowThe Federal Reserve’s decision to let inflation run while keeping interest rates low is helping boost crypto, Darius Sit, managing partner of QCP Capital, told CoinDesk.
“The market was looking to the Powell speech to see if there’d be any hawkish indications – clear plans to end liquidity injection and cheap money,” Sit said. “There was no sign of hawkishness so the party has resumed.”
Sit noted the continued decline of the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of global currencies. The index continues to drop, down 0.12% Monday and hitting fresh lows for 2020.
We are close to entry point in dollar. ExplainedWe have discussed previously a potential rally in the American dollar. Now we are getting really close to the potential entry. However, accumulation is weak. That means it will take another week or two to get a signal. Accumulation builds momentum. That’s why it is so important. We have very strong fundamental setup for DXY rally:
COT – commercials are heavily long
Evaluation model – the dollar is undervalued
COTSI Index – very high
Intermarket forecast – upside.
We need a technical signal to confirm the coming rally. It always takes some time to get one once we have a fundamental setup. So, likely we will see a bit more of a rally coming in a few sessions, followed by a pullback. It will give the dollar enough time to build momentum and form a signal to go long.
Dollar potential entries. ExplainedWe discussed bullish fundamental setup, but still no entry. There is a clear trendline on a daily chart. Breaking above is an entry. The most conservative traders can wait till DXY breaks and hold above 7 days high. It has been a long time since the dollar did that. So, breaking and holding above is sign bulls have got the strength to reverse a trend. The most aggressive traders can enter once and if higher low will be formed before breaking the trendline. But this trade is too risky for me. This market has a good fundamental setup and you can use any entry technique to pick up a trade.
Silver ... another wave up brewingSilver ... another wave up brewing. See my chart and notice pricing is going up in the last few bars in the 4h against a negative red ROC. Since ROC indiactor (top chart) is lagging. It it'll print the green ROC on a green most of all times.
I'm in AGQ for a small position and short day trading play.
Dollar Index REVERSEHello, Traders!
With the beginning of the new week, DXY shows some reversal signs. For the past 2 weeks, this index has found solid support above 93.
On a local 4H Timeframe Support and Resistance zones are created, so we need to pay close attention when index is near those levels.
If the breakout occurs, the FIRST target is 94.5 level.
Good Luck!
DXY Rebound.Hey, I am back with another Forex idea, this time looking at DXY, dollar index currency.
I expect DXY to rebound from the are of 94.65 - to 95.00 at least to 96.30 - 96.50, this does not mean, that dollar will be in uptrend, just this week and the half or whole next week will dollar see a rise.
So long USD, because it's really oversold at strong bounce area.
Good luck with trading!