EURUSD bearish RSI Divergence and Double topComing week will be interesting for DYX pairs, most of them are in bearish RSI divergence. EURUSD in the manner is in bearish divergence in addition to formed a potential double top in H4 time frame. Break of the up trendline will give a nice risk reward opportunity for coming week. If you dig more there might be much more promising dollar pairs with bearish RSI divergence setup formed for next week up on the rise of dollar end of last week. Happy trading !!!!
Dollar_index
Is this the end of US Dollar's Bear Run?DXY experienced such a roller coaster day yesterday, starting from a Draghi's hawkish speech which push Euro even higher to Trump's statement saying he is expecting a strong dollar, which helps DXY to gain temporary bullish momentum.
If I see from the chart here, Trump's statement has helped pushing DXY to break over 78.6% fibo extension line (89.17 level), hitting the ceiling at 61.8% retracement (89.56 level) and is now retracing back to 89.17 level. At this point, it is really hard to predict if this is really the end of bear's run for US dollar. From daily chart, I can see bottoming tail, which indicates a strong rejection to the downside. Long term wise EMA(200), I'm still bearish on US Dollar. It is now interesting to see how DXY reacts to 89.17.
To add on, RSI(14) forms a hidden divergence which indicates a downtrend continuation now. It is interesting to see:
1) If there is any reversal price action around 89.17, short term wise will be bullish for DXY at least until it hits 89.56
2) Otherwise, the bear will still continue to push DXY even lower.
The deceptive US DollarThe DXY has found some support following a recent dramatic fall. This seems more like a retracement in a primary downtrend rather than a reversal and I wouldn't go long at this point unless:
1. it breaks through the major resistance line and stays above it AND
2. breaks through and stays above the supply zone
EURUSD - Heavily bearish hidden with all the positive dataThis is my "personal views" please do not take my view as trading advice unless you are willing to lose it all.
I usually consider myself finding contrarian trends right before they settle in. I am sensing EURUSD is testing the resistance line after the breakout back in October. Earlier this was tested in November but failed to go above.
If we can stay below 1.2350 - 1.24 for the rest of this and next month then I can see a strong pullback first near 1.15 then a retracement to sub 1.19-1.20 area before giving up to all the way 1.07-1.05 where the weekly gap is still open.
This trend may complete by year end but I think this year is of USD Bulls and a bad start is to shake the confidence of the retail traders only.
3-4 Interest rate rise is given this year and Tax change shall take the $DXY, USDJPY nearly 5-10% from current levels and EURUSD should correct 10-15% and give up entire gains of 2017
Weekly Resistance 1.22-1.23EURUSD is probably heading towards the weekly structure zone 1.24-1.25 this year.
That's what my weekly chart's analysis shows
But, before it'll reach there, it will have to face a weekly resistance zone that includes 2 harmonic trading patterns.
1.22-1.23 includes a Butterfly and an AB=CD pattern
Read more about EURUSD, this pattern and other FX pairs in this week's newsletter (#WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter)
US INDEX - GLOBAL FORECAST 2018Hello Traders!
Accurately suppose, that the "Flat" model and Bull's "Cumulation Balance", will be on US index the whole 2018 year.
So... Based on intermarket correlation, it gives the opportunity for downtrend on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and uptrend for USDJPY, USDCAD,USDCHF.
Best regards, team traders ''Powerful Traders".
Long term look at the Dollar IndexA deviation in trend from the interest rate expectations pushed the index lower throughout 2017. The hawkish outlook of the fed & already high interest rate (compared to other major central banks) haven't stopped a push lower.
Always good to keep a look at the dollar index before making trades involving it.
Technicals
The fairly recent break below the 200DMA gave expectations for a continuation of the 2017 bearish sentiment.
Price currently sitting around an area that has acted as a good pivot point all the way back to 1999
.382 retrace off 2008 lows acted as support in september 2017
Dollar Index DXY short bias, monthly downtrendDollar Index DXY has a short bias, monthly downtrend with new supply zone created overhead, shorts at daily and weekly supply imbalances around 91 and higher. There is a void to be filled if monthly lows around 91 are broken. Most USD cross pairs are filling that void already and breaking lower. Shorts as well at daily and weekly supply zones on USDCZK, USDPLN, USDSEK, USDSGD, USDCLP, USDRON, and a few more.
Dollar is completing H&S top, suggesting next step lowerFrom past week DXY index was completing the right shoulder, today price finally broke the neckline. Still time to close but the massive engulfing candle looks like we will get a clear neckline break of the H&S. Let see if the Dollar hit the low of 90 in 2018.