DXY DOLLAR INDEX At the current time of typing this the dxy seems to have found some temporary support. it may gather enough momentum to test the upside channel trendline however we would need to see at least a daily/strong bullish h4 close above the resistance to confirm it is now a support for this index. alternatively if we break below the current zone there is definite scope for price to hit the daily pink trendline.
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DXY dollar strength should continueThe strengthening of the dollar should continue now that the possibility of a government shutdown is behind us. We should see the dollar reach the 89.40 area. If we can hold there price will continue to around 90.00. The key figure to watch with this rally will be Thursday's CPI inflation data. We should see an on par or better than expected figure but if not. Expect price to show it and for the DXY to turn south and break the 88.50 area and even possibly the 88.20 area for a new low.
Trade idea becomes invalid if price doesn't hold the 88.90 area on the small pullback coming.
As always do your own due diligence and homework when it comes to trading. Have a plan and stick to it.
Keep calm and forex
Dollar moving towards weekly structure zoneThe Dollar Index's correction move continues today as DXY is getting hammered after failing to hold above the Fast MA (support)
A double bottom scenario inside the PRZ of the bullish pattern in now in focus as DXY is about to re-test a weekly structure zone and the weekly uptrend line
EURUSD bearish RSI Divergence and Double topComing week will be interesting for DYX pairs, most of them are in bearish RSI divergence. EURUSD in the manner is in bearish divergence in addition to formed a potential double top in H4 time frame. Break of the up trendline will give a nice risk reward opportunity for coming week. If you dig more there might be much more promising dollar pairs with bearish RSI divergence setup formed for next week up on the rise of dollar end of last week. Happy trading !!!!
Is this the end of US Dollar's Bear Run?DXY experienced such a roller coaster day yesterday, starting from a Draghi's hawkish speech which push Euro even higher to Trump's statement saying he is expecting a strong dollar, which helps DXY to gain temporary bullish momentum.
If I see from the chart here, Trump's statement has helped pushing DXY to break over 78.6% fibo extension line (89.17 level), hitting the ceiling at 61.8% retracement (89.56 level) and is now retracing back to 89.17 level. At this point, it is really hard to predict if this is really the end of bear's run for US dollar. From daily chart, I can see bottoming tail, which indicates a strong rejection to the downside. Long term wise EMA(200), I'm still bearish on US Dollar. It is now interesting to see how DXY reacts to 89.17.
To add on, RSI(14) forms a hidden divergence which indicates a downtrend continuation now. It is interesting to see:
1) If there is any reversal price action around 89.17, short term wise will be bullish for DXY at least until it hits 89.56
2) Otherwise, the bear will still continue to push DXY even lower.
The deceptive US DollarThe DXY has found some support following a recent dramatic fall. This seems more like a retracement in a primary downtrend rather than a reversal and I wouldn't go long at this point unless:
1. it breaks through the major resistance line and stays above it AND
2. breaks through and stays above the supply zone
EURUSD - Heavily bearish hidden with all the positive dataThis is my "personal views" please do not take my view as trading advice unless you are willing to lose it all.
I usually consider myself finding contrarian trends right before they settle in. I am sensing EURUSD is testing the resistance line after the breakout back in October. Earlier this was tested in November but failed to go above.
If we can stay below 1.2350 - 1.24 for the rest of this and next month then I can see a strong pullback first near 1.15 then a retracement to sub 1.19-1.20 area before giving up to all the way 1.07-1.05 where the weekly gap is still open.
This trend may complete by year end but I think this year is of USD Bulls and a bad start is to shake the confidence of the retail traders only.
3-4 Interest rate rise is given this year and Tax change shall take the $DXY, USDJPY nearly 5-10% from current levels and EURUSD should correct 10-15% and give up entire gains of 2017
Weekly Resistance 1.22-1.23EURUSD is probably heading towards the weekly structure zone 1.24-1.25 this year.
That's what my weekly chart's analysis shows
But, before it'll reach there, it will have to face a weekly resistance zone that includes 2 harmonic trading patterns.
1.22-1.23 includes a Butterfly and an AB=CD pattern
Read more about EURUSD, this pattern and other FX pairs in this week's newsletter (#WeeklyMarketsAnalysis on Twitter)