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Dollar_index

dxy after federal Fund ratehi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ... One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of the year. July FOMC meeting The FOMC meets on 25-26 July and a 25-basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate is inevitable. The ‘skip’ from the last meeting foreshadowed a hike in July – and potentially another in September. Markets unanimously expect a July hike and Federal Reserve officials haven’t pushed back. Since the June FOMC meeting, and in view of favourable inflation prints and softer employment data, markets no longer anticipate a September hike. While that may prove right, they might be getting ahead of themselves. One month’s data doesn’t make a trend. Further, core inflation remains too high for the Fed and labour markets are still quite resilient. Expectations of a US recession or hard landing continue to fade – ‘soft landing’ is the buzzword of the day. More data will come in after the July FOMC meeting and data dependence will shape the September decision. Perhaps the Jackson Hole symposium in August will shed some light on Fed thinking. The key challenge for the July meeting will be communications. Regardless of the September outlook, the Fed has won its months-long struggle, convincing markets that, at least for now, the FOMC is on hold for the rest of 2023. The July meeting should be wary of any statements that might imperil this victory. Foreign exchange outlook Predicting exchange rates is a fool’s errand. With that disclaimer, what is the dollar’s outlook for the remainder of the year? The dollar is off its peak from last autumn, but it remains strong (Figure 1). The dollar’s upside may be limited as the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Improving inflation may inject a downward bias to note and bond yields. However, the downside may also be limited given anticipation that the FFR, after peaking, will be on hold for the rest of 2023 and services price will be sticky. Figure 1. Dollar remains strong despite falling from peak Source: Federal Reserve; through June 2023 A soft landing scenario would comport with muted dollar sentiment and modest volatility, unlike a sharp risk-off or risk-on environment. Decent dollar selling could emerge when markets perceive with certainty the Fed will start embarking on rate cuts, but that isn’t priced in at this juncture until early next year. The base case faces two-sided risks. If US inflation comes down more sharply than anticipated, major financial instability emerges or the economy sharply stagnates, the Fed could begin cutting rates earlier than expected, yields could fall and the dollar tumble. On the upside, more inflation persistence or greater than expected vigour in the US economy could sustain demand, as could a heightening in geopolitical risks. Of course, the dollar will also be impacted by what is happening abroad. Markets are discounting two more European Central Bank hikes this year – though there is increased debate about a September hike. The euro area economy has already stagnated and the outlook is for continued weakness. Absent further inflationary impulse, this weakness will curb the ECB’s hiking appetite and limit euro appreciation. The Japanese yen’s course will be sensitive to finance ministry concerns about yen weakness and yield curve control policy expectations. Further yen weakness will be limited by market concerns over official jawboning or intervention. Meanwhile, markets expected a quick abandonment of YCC after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down earlier this year, but his successor Kazuo Ueda has taken a cautious approach. However, YCC adjustment seems more a question of when than if. Altering YCC could significantly boost the yen. There may be modest renminbi upside against the dollar. It’s a managed currency, and opaquely so. It has depreciated against the dollar by some 4% this year, mainly reflecting divergent monetary policy stances in the US and China. Capital inflow to China has sharply ebbed over the last year. The authorities are resisting depreciation, though not through formal People’s Bank of China intervention, and increasingly signalling stronger aversion to renminbi weakness. . The Chinese growth surge expected after reopening has fallen short of expectations given strong headwinds. The PBoC has only run slightly more accommodative policies and the fiscal authorities have so far eschewed significant stimulus given the economy’s high indebtedness. The renminbi will remain soft overall, unless authorities embark unexpectedly on stepped up fiscal stimulus – a topic increasingly debated. With the UK facing continued inflation challenges, the Bank of England may need to stick with relatively high rates, undergirding sterling. One quarter of the dollar’s trade-weighted basket consists of the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Mexico moved preemptively to raise interest rates ahead of the Fed, hiking by nearly six percentage points since early 2022, and Banco de México is holding rates high, given elevated inflation. The peso took off this year, rising by 16%. Further upside is limited. The Canadian dollar through ups and downs has been fairly flat this year. The picture facing emerging market currencies varies. But good performers that raised policy rates preemptively relative to the Fed, such as Brazil, have experienced good capital inflows this year. Putting it all together, the dollar may trade narrowly with a softening bias for the rest of 2023. Next year may prove more interesting. Mark Sobel is US Chair of OMFIF. source passage : Federal Reserve
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
DOLLAR / DXY - Day-Trading Market Idea Price Action - Smart Money Concepts - Institutional Trading.. My Trading Analysis 4H: Price has not created new high, possible retracement to see IF price will continue uptrend at previous Higher Low or Break Structure. 1H: Price FAILED to create new high as well. We see a BOS on the line chart... indicating a possible reversal / retracement. 15M: (Entry Confirmation): Would like to see price Break structure here while taking out the lows and continue down to next POI. Will go over this on stream today.
TVC:DXYShort
by nonstopkev888
Will US Dollar fall to 2021 lows? The US dollar has recently fallen below its Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 100, an essential technical indicator for many traders. Based on this recent movement, there is a growing concern among experts that the US dollar could potentially drop to its 2021 lows. This noteworthy development requires careful consideration, particularly for those relying heavily on the US dollar in their trading strategies. Considering the US dollar's potential downward trajectory, I encourage you to explore the possibility of diversifying your currency holdings. Holding other foreign currencies could prove beneficial, as they may not be as susceptible to the impending drop in the US dollar's value. It is essential to approach this situation cautiously and conduct thorough research before making decisions. Analyze the trends, consult with fellow traders, and seek advice from trusted sources to ensure you are well informed about the potential risks and rewards. In light of these circumstances, I urge you to consider the following call to action: 1. Evaluate your current currency portfolio: Assess how much your trading strategy relies on the US dollar and consider diversifying your holdings to include other foreign currencies. 2. Stay updated on market trends: Regularly monitor the market and closely monitor the US dollar's performance. This will enable you to make informed decisions and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. 3. Seek expert advice: Consult with experienced traders or financial advisors specializing in forex trading. Their insights and recommendations can provide valuable guidance during uncertain times. Remember, the purpose of this email is not to instill panic but to bring your attention to a potential market development that could impact your trading decisions. By remaining cautious and proactive, you can better navigate the volatile currency market and potentially mitigate potential losses.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Dollar indexDollar index: As you know DXY determines pairs related to USD (which means all markets). 2 days ago, I had an analysis regarding dollar index. I don't know I published it or not (I guess not). But so far it exactly followed my analysis. I expected a high in dollar index (external liquidity sweep) and then a huge low to sweep internal liquidity which happened today. There is a nice order block (demand zone) which I have marked. I expect a reaction from this zone. if it breaks this zone I have marked another zone below this zone which I expect a reaction too. As you know, positive reaction in dollar index means negatvve reaction on EURUSD. So for the next move, I expect a positive reaction to the order block in dollar index, and negative reaction to the order block in EURUSD which will be my next analysis.
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalsForAll
Arguments of a week's size. Hi! We have some important signs for the dollar index that don't bode well for the crypto market! This is the 1 WEEK CHART. This is a high degree of reliability. In fact, what we saw on last week's hourly chart has already developed into a persistent reversal. 1: Ishimoku. The green Kumo cloud has halted Bitcoin's fall. In fact its lower boundary Senkou B has not been tested. Kijun-sen also does not show resistance to the candlestick, and usually turns out to be the next support later... 2. EMA100 area is a support in the weekly chart. This is a very good signal for the continuation of USD strengthening trend! 3. The volatility has stopped falling and the first red shortening bar appeared. I'm sure in a few weeks there will also be the first black cross signifying a squeeze before an upside shot. 4. Stochastic has reversed and is flying up. 5. This is a Heikin Ashi chart and it is more sensitive to a trend reversal than normal Japanese candlesticks. You can see how we started this week. Conclusion. Remember, Bitcoin is still private money (even if influential funds buy it for investment purposes). Bitcoin has no monetary authority, it plays on the open market against fiat currencies (primarily the dollar), which are managed by powerful financial institutions. This new weekly green candle is the result of a +0.25% increase in the Fed's key rate. Dollar borrowing has become expensive. Why should there be free liquidity available in the market to inject into high risk assets? Or do you believe that private hands around the world will outbid the Fed? No, I do not believe that this weak sideways move of Bitcoin in November-December was a consolidation. Now the curses will come ))) P.S. If I'm wrong, that's my problem. You can watch this chart and decide your’s opinion. I don't want to change your mind at all. I am only pointing out my thoughts. But I would like people to think better.
TVC:DXYLong
by averkie_skila
3
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
DXY - Ready to skyrocket buying!This is DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) MONTHLY ANAYLSIS.. DXY Imminent Skyrocket Price is buying from Panic Zone (0 -382%) INSIDE MONTHLY DEMAND ZONE (PREVIOUSLY SUPPLY ZONE) We expect price BREAK 0% AREA (WEEKLY SUPPLY ZONE) and continue buying to TP1 A AND TP 2 B AREAS. TRIGGER: WAIT PRICE BREAK 0% AREA (104.620) When it's triggered, I suggest to open BUY POSITIONS on USD parallel pairs (USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF) and SELL POSITIONS on opposite (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD) BULLISH INTERNAL CYCLE - WEEKLY ANALYSIS. - TP 1 - AREA A: 50 - 61.8 % (109.719 - 110.923) - TP 2 - AREA B: 100 % (114.819) - FINAL DESTINATION: MONTHLY SUPPLY ZONE (RED AREA ABOVE)
TVC:DXYLong
by imktads
Dollar Index ($DXY): Technical Analysis$DollarIndex could trigger a 3 or 5 wave swing on daily chart, and if this happens, the first Target should be around 106/107 area. That said, the trend remains bullish and the index should be bought on any correction. The technical structure on intraday chart is also very interesting, and it might be useful to develop it in our updates below as well. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! 🚀 Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
TVC:DXYLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
DXYIt's not financial advice. It's just my prediction about the future of the DXY index Just see and Think about it. I think it's so interesting analysis to imagine the future of DXY. So Let's go ************************************ In the first level let me tell you more about the relationship between DXY and the cryptocurrency market. It is a known fact that the crypto price movements are deeply correlated with the DXY Index since its inception. While the DXY index gets stranger, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many other assets tend to fall. Besides, if the cryptos manifest their strength, then the dollar’s strength tends to fall ************************************ Hello Guys. How are you doing? I hope you feel great and always be happy and successful. Today, I want to show you something strange that will happen in the market. as you see in this chart, we are in Parallel Channel and whenever the index touches the top of the channel, we expect to react. it's the third time I expect the DXY index to go up from here. But it takes time. maybe more than 4 Months. ************************************ by the way, I should say that at the first level, we should go up to the 106 Level and stay there. after that, we will expect to go up level by level. the next levels are: 110-117-125 and maybe 132 who knows !!! maybe 132 is closer to us than we think. ************************************ Please be patient and think about that. ************************************ Please SHARE this analysis with your friends and also, FOLLOW me. It can help you to be the first one that sees the analysis after publishing. wish you health and wealth Sincerely Yours
TVC:DXYLong
by ho3einmnd