DXY Shorts from the daily supply at 104.200 back down.The dollar has broken significant structure to the downside, leaving a clean, unmitigated daily supply zone with an imbalance that adds validity to this point of interest. Once price reaches this level, I'll likely refine the zone and wait for a CHOCH on the lower timeframe.
If price moves down first, I’ll watch for it to enter the newly created 3-hour demand zone, which swept previous higher-timeframe structure. This could propel the dollar up to the supply zone.
Confluences for DXY Shorts:
Strong bearish momentum on the higher timeframe, breaking previous structure.
Significant liquidity to the downside.
A solid daily supply zone caused this move, with an imbalance below.
This pro-trend trade aligns with my other pairs.
P.S. I expect Monday to start slow, with consolidation before either zone is mitigated. We'll make our move from there.
Dollarbearish
DXY currently bearish ? (REACTION FROM 104.400)My DXY bias this week is to generally expect a greater downside. I anticipate a small retracement back up before making a new low. Given the recent significant news and the incident involving Donald Trump, we should be cautious and avoid trading at market open, as a major move or spike is likely due to its impact on the US economy.
Once the market settles, we will assess and adapt to the most probable scenarios. There's an 18-hour demand zone currently in play, and if price continues to drop, I expect a bullish reaction from the 21-hour demand zone.
DXY bearish case scenario. I have published my bullish case scenario for DXY in my previous analysis. Now I'm looking at 4h and 8h timeframe and noticed M pattern with bearish divergence in 4h and rising wedge + double top with double top with bearish divergence. If this scenario plays out, it means as I mentioned in my previous analysis BTC bottomed at 17.5K on 18.06.2022 and starts its rally and last 5th wave.
LONG AUDUSD ON PULLBACKLOOKING AT THE 4 HR CHART I WOULD CONSIDER A LONG POSITION ON THE PULLBACK. ALTERNATIVELY IF WE BLOW THROUGH THE .618 FIB LEVEL, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A PULLBACK TO THAT LEVEL TO MAKE AN ENTRY.
WHITE LINES ON LONG TRADE REPRESENT ALTERNATE ENTRIES TO SCALE INTO THE TRADE AND MULTIPLE TP LEVELS.
8 Good Reasons To Short USDFive world-class investors that are bearish on USD...
1) Ray Dalio
“You can’t continue to run deficits, sell debt or print money rather than be productive and sustain that over a period of time. If we don’t work together to do the sound things, to be productive, to earn more than we spend, to build the stability of our currency and build a good balance sheet, we are going to decline."
www.marketwatch.com
2) Stephen Roach
"The US dollar could collapse by the end of 2021 and the economy can expect a more than 50% chance of a double-dip recession" “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit” “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”
markets.businessinsider.com
3) Hugh Hendry
“When I look at the world of macro, I think it’s telling us that we need a lower print on the dollar itself.” “I think we need the Treasury, and not the Fed, to step up to the plate and tell the world ‘we’re going to target 70 or 60 on the dollar index.’ That would change the world.”
www.cnbc.com
4) Warren Buffet
"The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net." "If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door." "If we have the same policies, the dollar will go down."
moneyweek.com
5) Ulf Lindahl
will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade, and “is the beginning of a very large move.”
www.reuters.com
Note: Analysts from Citi, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock are also bearish on USD
www.aljazeera.com
markets.businessinsider.com
www.reuters.com
Trading Simple: major trendline breakout! Keep your analysis clean and simple. Vision wise it gives you a better understanding and clear trading plan.
A technical break should bring a long way down for UJ to test support areas. Illustrated are the possible target levels.
Fundamentally:
USD Dollar finally starts feeling the hit of the FED's decisions
Markets worldwide are in a critical situation
People are feeling scared
Gold broke major resistance areas and it is already on a bull run.
Wait for a pullback to enter this trade!
Best of luck.
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