DXY (dollar index) Out lookMy bias for the dollar is that it may start to slow down and experience some pullbacks, likely to fill the imbalances below and capture some liquidity. However, I also see Scenario A playing out, which could push the price upward and continue the bullish trend.
Given the current market conditions, I expect these retracements, which also align with my outlook for EU and GU.
Confluences supporting my bullish bias on the dollar:
- The DXY has been very bullish and has broken significant structure to the upside.
- The DXY has surpassed the key psychological level of 105.00.
- There is still a lot of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken.
- Clean demand zones are in place, reinforcing my bullish outlook.
P.S. Be cautious and watch for the major red news on Wednesday, specifically the CPI event, as it will provide key insight for the forecast. I expect the dollar to retrace ahead of the news, but once it's released, I anticipate the dollar will shoot back up.
Dollarbulls
(DXY) Dollar - Break out pending from its consolidationThe DXY is currently in a consolidation phase, and I expect it to break out soon. Regardless of the direction, we have marked points of interest (POIs) that will help us capitalize on trading opportunities.
- Scenario 1: Price Breaks Upwards
If the price breaks above the consolidation, I anticipate it will fill the imbalance and tap into the supply zones marked on the 30-minute and 8-hour charts.
- Scenario 2: Price Breaks Downwards
If the price moves down, I expect it to mitigate the 16-hour demand zone. This zone appears to be a strong buy setup, likely pushing the dollar back up. There’s also an imbalance above this demand zone that needs to be filled.
Overall, I am favoring an upward move, as this aligns with my bearish outlook on GOLD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD.
DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) Shorts from 107.000My view on the dollar is relevant to all major pairs I trade, including GOLD, GBPUSD (GU), and EURUSD (EU). This week, we are approaching a strong high point with a previous Wyckoff distribution on a higher timeframe, now entering a significant supply level on the 9-hour chart. I anticipate a reaction at this level followed by a temporary decline in the dollar.
I expect the dollar to drop at least to the newly established 12-hour demand zone, where I foresee a bullish continuation. This supports the broader bullish trajectory of the dollar, aiming towards tapping into a 2-month supply zone where a major bearish reaction is expected.
Therefore, if I anticipate the dollar to initially rise and then drop, I also expect EURUSD and GBPUSD to continue their downward trends accordingly.
Note that this is my current bias, and I will adjust it based on evolving market trends. It's essential to consider various zones and scenarios for a comprehensive analysis."
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DXY (Dollar Index) Longs from 102.200 back upThe dollar index is presently responding to my 14hr supply zone, leading to a visible bearish reaction. Given that this supply is part of a 2-day supply, I anticipate price to move upward to further mitigate this supply, potentially triggering a more stronger bearish response.
With the breakout from consolidation, I anticipate clearer price action. I will be monitoring for price to reach a 10hr demand zone that has previously resulted in a BOS on the higher timeframe. Upon reaching this point of interest (POI), I will then be on the lookout for an accumulation to unfold.
Confluences for Dollar buys are as follows.
- Market trend is overall bullish on the higher timeframe
- Price has broken structure to the upside on the HTF.
- Price is currently reacting off a supply to trigger the pullback towards our demand
- Theres lots of liquidity and imbalances that need to get taken above as well.
- 10hr demand zone lies within the 0.78 fib range and it caused the BOS to happen
P.S. While I don't engage in direct trading of the dollar, I utilise it for confluence, especially since this pair significantly impacts the others I monitor. There's a possibility of a short-lived bullish trend if the 2-day supply zone doesn't hold. However, given the initial reaction, a downward movement seems likely.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD, LET'S CATCH THESE PIPS!
DXY D1 - Awaiting breakout of consolidationDXY D1 - For the last 2/3 weeks we haven't seen an awful amount of movement from the dollar and many other pairs that have yet to cause or given a definitive breakout to show currency bias/direction.
I think this week will mostly be keeping an eye on the introduction of volume, headlines and everything else to follow which may give us an indication of what we should look to buy and what we should look to sell.
DXY D1 - Long expectation.DXY D1
Whilst we have a bullish sequence here on the D1, the H4 looks to be showing a bearish breakout. As we always say, higher TF takes precedence. Not only this, we have fundamentals and risk sentiment backing USD bid.
I'd like to see DXY get off the ground a little more before jumping into these USD*** longs or ***USD shorts.
DXY Flag w/Bullish DivergenceAppears to be a very large flag-type formation with hidden bullish divergence on the RSI.
The RSI is moving lower and lower into oversold territory while the price is steadily gaining.
This is suggestive of building strength within DXY as DXY has held onto all of it's gains since the end of May 2021.
I'm calling one more dip before the rally but this is really the last good chance to get a good entry presuming I'm right because the outline suggests we're about to say goodbye to 92 for an extended period of time.
Failed Breakout Attempts. DXY bulls getting tired?The yellow trendline is drawn from the January 2016 high.
DXY bulls have been rejected a total of four times over the past few sessions, as shown by the red arrows on the chart.
Bearish divergence on the 4 hour chart may indicate bulls are losing momentum, at least in the short term....
Additional trendlines are drawn from recent swing highs / lows and seem to provide strong suppoort / resistance. As long as the price remains below the yellow line, I will remain bearish on the USD.
Gold looks ready to take advantage of any USD weakness after bouncing off channel support to break through trendline resistance. Perhaps a change in risk sentiment.... USDJPY and SPY both look like they're ready to fall.
Long term charts of USD pairs support DXY bulls? EURUSDThis is a major test for USD bulls. This TL has been holding since 1985. You can see the price dipped below Nov 2016 which preceded the EUR rally of 2017.
If this TL is broken, I expect a big follow through. Breakouts of other USD pairs on the monthly chart add some conviction that this is possible.
Brexit in the UK, pending recession in Germany, riots in France... They always throw a nice narrative in.
Not a lot of fundamental reasons to buy EUR, same as 2017.... Just a technical bounce imo...
EUR bulls are going to have to step up to the plate sometime soon.
Long term charts of USD pairs support DXY bulls? USDJPYPrice clearly broke out from this massive falling wedge last summer.
You can see January's "Yen Flash Crash" looks like an attempt to move price back inside the wedge. Price has broken out once again after bouncing off the Monthly 200 MA.
A similar break above a smaller wedge in 2014 resulted in a 2000 pip move to the upside.
This is just one of a handful of major USD pairs displaying a bullish technical setup for DXY, which is leading me to believe the dollar is situated to move higher.
If the Fed can create trillions of dollars to give to the banks for assets it will never be able to liquidate in order to inflate the stock market, nothing is stopping the big banks from from buying up the dollar.
After ending QT and Trump running the highest US deficits in history, the possibility of interest rate cuts and more QE the dollar still rises....
The Eve of RiskOur Second Idea on Tradingview
=> Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions.
=>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April.
=>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play.
=>We are choosing Gold as the perfect asset class to trade this as we expect some mild profit taking from Dollarbulls
=>Gold long @1227| TP1 1260 | TP2 1305 | STP LOSS 1208
=>In the background we also have EZ and US inflation numbers mid week, both expected inline providing further pull factors to Gold
=>Good Luck all