Dollar General (DG) Upside PotentialA few months away from earnings, but getting close to mitigating June 2017 sell off.
Dollargeneral
Dollar General ($DG) Plunges 29% on Economic Pressures Dollar General shares (NYSE: NYSE:DG ) took a dramatic 29% nosedive on Thursday, following a dismal earnings report that highlighted both external challenges and internal missteps. The discount retailer, which serves primarily rural and low-income communities, slashed its full-year sales and profit forecasts, underscoring the struggles of its core customer base in a tightening economic environment. But the challenges facing Dollar General are not solely external; a series of internal issues has also contributed to the retailer’s steep decline.
Earnings Miss: A Dual Struggle with Customer Hardship and Operational Challenges
Dollar General’s latest earnings report showed a disappointing performance, missing Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines. For the second fiscal quarter, the company reported earnings per share of $1.70, falling short of the $1.79 anticipated by analysts. Revenue came in at $10.21 billion, also missing expectations of $10.37 billion. The company’s net income dropped to $374 million, or $1.70 per share, down from $469 million, or $2.13 per share, a year earlier, despite a 4.2% increase in sales year-over-year.
CEO Todd Vasos acknowledged the impact of economic conditions on Dollar General's core customers, stating, “While we believe the softer sales trends are partially attributable to a core customer who feels financially constrained, we know the importance of controlling what we can control.” Yet, he admitted that the company must do more to improve its stores and manage its inventory better.
Guidance Slashed: A Bleak Forecast for Fiscal 2024
The retailer’s outlook for fiscal 2024 reflects a cautious approach to the uncertain economic landscape. Dollar General now expects same-store sales to increase between just 1.0% and 1.6%, down from its previous estimate of 2% to 2.7%. The company also slashed its earnings per share forecast to a range of $5.50 to $6.20, from a prior range of $6.80 to $7.55. These cuts signal the company’s concerns over continued weakness in consumer spending and its ability to navigate the competitive pressures.
The retailer's challenges are compounded by stiff competition from giants like Walmart and Target, which have been aggressively cutting prices and winning over budget-conscious shoppers. Even online platforms like Temu, run by China’s PDD Holdings, are offering low-cost alternatives to the non-essential items that have traditionally driven sales at Dollar General.
Operational Shortcomings and Market Share Loss
Beyond the macroeconomic pressures, Dollar General (NYSE: NYSE:DG ) is grappling with internal problems that have exacerbated its struggles. The company has acknowledged the need for better inventory management and store improvements to curb losses and boost customer experience. Analysts point to a lack of strategic agility in an increasingly competitive discount retail environment, where rivals like Dollar Tree, Walmart, and Target are capturing more of the price-sensitive market.
Michael Montani, an analyst at Evercore ISI, highlighted the challenge Dollar General (NYSE: NYSE:DG ) faces in maintaining market share. "Dollar General's results show the challenge of maintaining market share with Walmart winning in a slower growth environment," Montani noted. Walmart and Target have recently raised their full-year profit forecasts, benefiting from price cuts that have attracted more customers.
The Path Forward: Can Dollar General Turn It Around?
While Dollar General’s situation appears grim, it’s not without hope. The company still managed to advance some of its operational goals and saw positive traffic growth, indicating that there is potential for recovery if the retailer can address its weaknesses. However, analysts remain cautious about the short-term outlook, especially given the current economic pressures on lower-income consumers and the intensifying competition.
The retailer’s future depends heavily on its ability to execute a more refined strategy that includes better inventory management, store enhancements, and possibly more competitive pricing. Dollar General must find a way to regain its footing and convince both customers and investors that it can adapt to the shifting landscape.
A Critical Moment for Dollar General
Dollar General’s sharp decline reflects a broader story of economic strain and operational missteps. As its core customers feel the pinch of a challenging economy, and as competition heats up, the company finds itself at a critical crossroads. The path to recovery will not be easy, but with strategic adjustments and a focus on operational improvements, Dollar General (NYSE: NYSE:DG ) may yet find a way to bounce back in the fiercely competitive discount retail market. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the retailer can overcome its current challenges or if further difficulties lie ahead.
Dollar General | DG | Long at $90.00Dollar General NYSE:DG took a massive hit this morning after revising their future earnings guidance. The economy is showing many signs of a recession, and this is a clear warning. From a technical analysis perspective, it has retouched my "crash" simple moving average and may dip further into the $80's in the near-term. But, like many overall strong companies that suddenly plummet, I view this as a future opportunity given the strength of NYSE:DG as a business (holistically). Dollar General is the only grocery and home goods store around in many rural locations. So, while there is doom and gloom in the near-term, Dollar General is in a personal buy zone at $90.00. I view this as a starter position, though, with the potential for future declines/opportunities for additional share accumulation in the near-term.
Target #1 = $100.00
Target #2 = $122.00
Target #3 = $200.00+ (very-long term outlook...)
DG, Incoming series of Price Growth in order! SEED.MONTHLY DATA:
HISTOGRAM WAVE (top indicator) Down shift (3rd one since inception) finally re-appeared after waiting eons. Buyers are now positioning at the current discounted price range. Last time a wave down shift appeared was 6 years ago on June 2017! This is a huge hint already to SEED on this stock.
Price perfectly bounce on a 1.0 FIB LEVEL touch on monthly data. Support is solid at the current price range.
Net positive Volume last few days keeps ascending surpassing average numbers. As of this writing volume has surged 10%
Expected Earnings result will come on August 31 and it's expected to beat previous Q1 numbers by a significant %.
TAYOR
Spotted at 167.0
Safeguard capital always.
Immediate buy on DG. Thank you as always for tuning in to my technical analysis of $NYSE:DG.
Please feel free to like, comment, and share! May God bless you and your family this upcoming week!
Dollar General $DG - Cash Secured Put Trade IdeaOn Wed Nov 22 2023 I entered a cash secured put trade on NYSE:DG
I did this for several reasons:
Price closed above the 50MA on daily candles.
Price broke out of the horizontal support.
Price closed above a medium/long term diaginal support.
Moving averages are crossing over and sloping upwards.
Price is oversold as the stock has fallen by approximately -62% from its October 2022 high.
The stock volatility was at 94% giving th edge to option sellers, yet we are still 15 days away from NYSE:DG earnings.
Earnings are another example why I think the price of my put will expire OTM and I will get to keep this inflated premium. You see the bar for NYSE:DG earnings as set by the analysts is pretty low, with the estimates of EPS: $1.197 and Revenue: $9.648B, both I believe could be low targets for NYSE:DG based on their historic and last quarter results.
There is also an unfilled bullish gap from a technical perspective above the current price at around the $138.44-$157.60 level.
I sold a DEC 15 $115 PUT for a premium of $2.95 per contract. My thoughts are that the contracts will expire worthless and that I will be able to keep the premium. If the volatility drops from the current levels I will realize my profits faster. Depending on how much profit gets captured from the option I might exit early before earnings and lock in profits without increasing my risk due to the upcoming earnings, as we know during earnings its a coin toss and anything can happen.
This is my first post idea on TradingView, hope this was helpful for the readers. If so, follow me for more ideas on stock and option trading.
Enjoy the weekend and good luck next week!
DG Daily Levels Match Up Almost Perfectly with Fibonacci LevelsDG
Replay of DG's Price Movement & Volume -13 October 2023
Dollar General (DG) gapped up and was up 9.16% on the day. DG's volume was nearly 3 x's the amount it was over the last 2.5 weeks.
Daily Levels & Fibonacci Levels
*The .38 retracement level on the daily is in confluence with the 116 daily level on the chart. The .50 fibonacci retracement level aligns with the 120 daily level. Also, the .618 (the reversal fib retracement level), is in confluence with the 124.85 daily level. I like when I see levels line up nearly perfectly with fib retracement levels 😃
Dollar General (DG) | Short-term OpportunityHi,
A leading American discount retailer, Dollar General operates over 19,000 stores in 47 states, selling branded and private-label products across a wide variety of categories.
In fiscal 2022, 80% of net sales came from consumables (including paper and cleaning products, packaged and perishable food, tobacco, and health and beauty items), 11% from seasonal merchandise (such as toys, greeting cards, decorations, and gardening supplies), 6% from home products (for example, kitchen supplies, small appliances, and cookware), and 3% from apparel.
Stores average roughly 7,500 square feet, and about 75% of Dollar General locations are in towns of 20,000 or fewer people.
The firm emphasizes value, with most of its items sold at everyday low prices of $5 or less.
Technically speaking it has reached inside an interesting area. A few criteria matching with each other and probably it is worth to take a shot, from the shown box - $90 to $119, should be technically okay.
Criteria are simple:
1. The long trendline
2. All-time Fibo level 62%
3. The round number, psychological number, $100
Target around $140 - $150
Good luck,
Vaido
DG IS GETTING ROASTEDThere's nothing stopping this name right now. Looks pretty tragic for the bulls.
BUT, this stock will eventually rebound. Consider more accumulation strategies on this stock at some point. Slowly, trepidatiously, and over time. buy low, sell high.
Dollar General to close it's gap?Dollar General - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 173.33 (stop at 167.33)
We are trading at oversold extremes.
In our opinion this stock is undervalued.
We have a Gap open at 01/06/2023 from 201 to 179.
The bias is to break to the upside.
173.09 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent high at 173.09 should result in a further move higher.
Our profit targets will be 188.33 and 191.33
Resistance: 173.09 / 179.20 / 200.00
Support: 166.00 / 161.00 / 155.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Dollar General has more downside and reversal zone identifiedThis idea is based on Wyckoff's method for determining price objectives using the Point & Figure count of the distribution ranges. We can see a complex distribution range existing of 2 different types of distribution patterns at the top.
The yellow range is based on Wyckoff's distribution schematic 1 and the white range is showing a type 2 distribution schematic.
If we take count the ranges separately, this yields a potential reversal zone between 108.50 and 89.50 dollar per share.
All other information is on the chart.
Good luck,
NQDecipher
Dollar General to see an uptrend?Dollar General - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 222.52 (stop at 216.52)
The primary trend remains bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
Short term momentum is bullish.
A break of the recent high at 222.21 should result in a further move higher.
The bias is to break to the upside.
Our profit targets will be 237.52 and 240.52
Resistance: 222.21 / 227.00 / 232.00
Support: 218.00 / 212.50 / 210.50
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Dollar General to breakdown?Dollar General - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 212.47 (stop at 220.62)
Daily signals are bearish.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
A clear break of 215 and we would look for further losses to 200.
Our outlook is bearish.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
Our profit targets will be 193.53 and 190.53
Resistance: 218.50 / 222.21 / 225.00
Support: 212.59 / 205.00 / 200.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Dollar General entering buy zoneBased off volume profile, it looks as if DG might be bouncing back pretty soon. After this ER dump, I expect it slowly sell off to around the 165-150 range, where i’ll be buying.
Entered a couple of DG august contracts today, and looking to buy more at anything below 160.
DG Long Term SupportA few days late to see this but in line with my thesis on Consumer Staples being the next sector to perform in the market NYSE:DG hit a long term 50% retracement level support around 175. I would be looking at this to retest the high in terms of price action. Unfortunately even at this level the dividend yield is rather low (0.79%).
Bullish Divergence On The MACDGood Morning! In my opinion, Dollar General ( DG ) will have a nice move up if it can complete the bullish cross on the MACD. There is very strong bullish divergence happening on the 4 hour timeframe. There is also some bullish divergence happening on the daily. If we can hold above -4.45 on the daily MACD this could be a great swing opportunity as well.
What are your thoughts?
I hope you all have a great trading day :)!
Dollar General/ DG GREAT BUY Surprisingly enough this company is stellar when you look at the financials. Its Cash Cycle is under 30 days with absolutely NO ACCOUNTS RECIEVABLE!!! its been growing its revenue around 10% each year, management has been buying back shares to increase shareholder equity, its dividends are squat :( , but they are gunning for Five and Below/ FIVE s market by opening POP Shelfs in the 'Burbs. If the POP Shelfs are able to take hold then I could see this company keeping par with its 10% revenue growth rate for the next 10 years. For the past decade the GPM has not dipped below 30%. the Return on Equity (for the value investors like myself) has been steadily growing with the last years being 25.5% with a 10 year average of 20%. And with COVID-19 still keeping people out of work and unemployment moderate to high I can see more households stretching the dollar which will grow this company's Revenue. As the families effected will be looking for the bargain stores to save their capital. The Company has ZERO short term debt, but they have no treasury shares. :( so, they have no equity out of the market and i think this particular reason is why i think its more of a "B+" investment rather than a A+ investment. If you're a conservative investor the D/E Ratio for the past year was .43, so that's not bad! with only 4% of their operating income going toward paying off interest on long term debt as compared to the moderate 15%. :) so when they buy their shares back its possible they might be retiring them. the Current Ratio has been a strong 1.5-1.7 for the past decade with a few exceptions, and their retained earnings pool has been steadily growing. Currently its trading under value with a fair market value of 196.xx with Ben Grahams formula putting it around 294.xx. I would love to see the price drop below 185.xx before buying so that way one can maximize their return on investment. If you're a growth investor or value investor this is a great company a solid B+ or A- to build a portfolio on. I would love to see this ABCD pattern complete as a great entry.
DG: What Next?I expect this next week for Dollar General to be an overall green one, but with very little movement. DG has been struggling to maintain its price above the 200 MA, currently resting above it by a thin margin, and last week found resistance at the 50 MA, which ironically was at our $205 price target for last week. Worst case scenario, DG falls to test its proven support around ~$191~. Either way, I expect a retry to surpass the $205 mark in the coming weeks. Only time will tell. **NFA
**DLTR** I feel like Charlie from Its Always SunnyBut in all seriousness this chart looks really good, and It it follows these resistances and supports it could lead up to ATH. The Pivots line up perfect with the convergence of the lines. If the EMAS cross the 200 EMA then I will enter a Long position
$DG- I love this long, but is now the right time?$DG has generated alot of cash for me and for options contract buyers its a great long exp buy. Obviously Equity buyers included in this. Right now we are sitting at a major resistance , and if we break my first PT would be $225.35. After that we are working through ATMs but thats how stocks work at ATM. you never know. One thing to watch is $SPY . $DG moves along side $SPY and if we break to the downside I will be watching for a divergence from SPY to see If the pullback is real or not. If DG hovers while SPY dumps then when the market bounces it should present a nice buying opportunity. I will be signaling these in our group this week, and hopefully posting some more videos on these tickers in particular. So right now I am hoping for a gap up, over resistance and then a retest to send us on our way. ATM highs can be scary, but if the volume is higher then we could see a nice push! Thanks for listening!
☹ You Walk In, Only To Discover Everything Is Not 1 Dollar! (DG)🤔 Dollar General parallel impulse channel identified, We currently sit near Resistance.
I'm leaning towards a short on this one. We will show the next key levels to play on a lower timeframe to show you where we will be taking a short position. 165.38 is a key area of old Resistance that we could see be tested as new support. If this were to happen, we would be looking at roughly a 13% move.
Will share lower timeframe analysis below. 😁
Best of luck. 🎲🎲
🥇MLT | MAJOR LEAGUE TRADER
