Get started

Dollarindex

XAUUSD - 1hr | Wyckoff EventSimple Trading: Distribution Phase First, we can see that gold has started to consolidate. Once we see this, we look back at previous candles to identify the patterns in this phase: (1) preliminary resistance (2) the last buy (3) a retest to confirm support (4) confirm resistance without making a higher high. (5) Higher high (typically a FAKEOUT) We are waiting for the price to confirm the last step (6) to complete the pattern. If the price falls to SUPPORT, creating a LOWER LOWER, the Distribution Phase is complete. Expect gold turn to remain bearish. Falling as low as 2815.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDShort
by nikdobii
1
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level. However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend. With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
9
DXY weekly Perspective 23.02.25DXY Analysis & Bias for This Week My outlook for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, which aligns with my bias for bullish moves on pairs like GU, EU, and Gold. Since price has already broken structure to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to mitigate the newly formed 14-hour supply zone before continuing lower. While price may react bullishly from the 3-hour or 2-hour demand zones I’ve marked, the overall momentum still favors the downside, as seen from the strength of recent bearish candlesticks. Plan of Action: 📌 Once price reaches the 14-hour supply zone, I will wait for lower timeframe confirmations before taking action. 📌 I will also check for any corresponding demand zones on my other pairs to ensure alignment across the board.
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
Will We See the Euro Trading Below Par?CME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) #Microfutures Since the US election last November, the Euro currency has lost ground against the US dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate sliding from 1.08 to as low as 1.02. A combination of new policies from the Trump administration aims to strengthen the dollar. Recent efforts to end the geopolitical crisis will not support the euro. On the contrary, they could push the European common currency below the critical 1-dollar level. Quick Review of the EUR/USD Price Trend The euro has swung widely against central bank policies and geopolitical events: • 2020: The Fed implemented massive stimulus measures in response to the pandemic. Lowering interest rates and increasing money supply reduced the value of the USD • 2021: The faster vaccine rollout and quicker reopening of the US economy boosted economic growth and investor sentiment towards the USD • 2022: (1) The Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation, making the USD more attractive to investors compared to the Euro. (2) Europe faced an energy crisis due to its dependence on Russian gas. This crisis led to economic uncertainty and weakened the euro. (3) Ongoing geopolitical tensions created economic instability in Europe, further weakening the euro against the USD • Q4 2022 and 2023: European Central Bank abandoned its long-held zero-rate policy in September 2022. It raised rates eight times to 4.00%. These actions narrowed the interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, and helped the euro rebound • 2024: The EUR/USD moved mainly sideways in the range of 1.06 and 1.12. Fed easing and rebounds of US inflation contributed to the mild volatility. • Q4 2024 to Current. Dollar ascended quickly after the election win of Donald Trump. Investors expect strong dollar with the support of the new America First policies Ukraine Peace Talks and Possible Outcomes On February 12th, Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to immediately start negotiations to end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 18th, US and Russian officials held peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to create a high-level team to lead the Ukraine peace talks. Neither Ukraine nor the EU participated in the meeting. How the peace talks would progress remain highly uncertain. Using Game Theory, we could break them down into two mutually exclusive and collectively inclusive outcomes: • Peace: US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU sign a peace agreement to end the conflict and ensure long-lasting peace. Whether it will be a fair treaty is a hotly debated topic. • No-Peace: Peace talks break down. The 3-year-long conflict continues. This could last for years but eventually will lead to a win/loss outcome or a draw. From an investing perspective, “No-Peace” is equivalent to “Risk On”. It may imply higher gold prices, higher energy costs and lower equity value. Meanwhile, “Peace” means “Risk Off”. We may see declining gold, lower oil and gas, and rising stock prices. However, it would be difficult to pick the price direction if we can’t predict the outcome. Peace or No Peace – A Steep Cost for Europe For better or worse, the recent events are a wakeup call to European countries. The US had defense spending totaling $967 billion in 2024, which is 3.49% of its GDP. For a comparison, the total defense spending for EU member states reached $358 billion in 2024. This represents around 1.9% of the EU's GDP • The US accounted for 73% of the defense spending in the 32 countries in NATO • Since 2022, the US contributed to 2/3 of all the financial aids sending to Ukraine The US administration intends to cut its financial support. Europe will have to increase defense spending dramatically. In a worst case, a complete breakdown in Cross-Atlantic relations could see the US exiting NATO and all US troops withdrawing from Europe. How much is the spending gap? In 2024, Russia had defense budget of $462 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP. Ukraine had defense budget of $40 billion, or 22% of its GDP. • EU plus Ukraine spent $64 billion less than Russia in defense budget. In my opinion, in a Peace scenario and with reduced US involvement, the EU defense budget must surpass that of Russia to ensure Ukraine to stay on top. I find this to be 2.5% of GDP. This means a 32% increase or $471 billion in total defense spending. For No-Peace, the EU will be fighting an active war. NATO will need to maintain a standing army of 1 million troops and rebuild an entire defense industry. In this scenario, I feel that the defense budget needs to double 5% of GDP. budget to raise a large army and rebuild an entire defense industry. This means a 163% increase or $942 billion in total defense spending. If the above numbers sound outrageous, Israel, a country constantly fighting for its survival, will serve as a good refence point. In 2024, Israel's defense spending amounted to 117.5 billion Israeli shekels (around $32.5 billion USD), which is 6.7% of its GDP. The EU has an estimated GDP growth at 0.9% in 2024 and a forecast growth of 1.5% in 2025. The defense budget increase will cause mandatory cuts in non-defense spending. The combined effect will be negative, pushing GDP growth into a negative territory. In my opinion, re-arming Europe is critical to its survival. However, defense buildup comes at a steep cost. The expectations of lower GDP growth will push the value of Euro currency lower, likely below the 1-dollar critical level. Commitment of Traders shows diminishing bullish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 11th, total Open Interest (OI) for CME Euro FX Futures is 622,873 contracts. “Asset Manager” (i.e., hedge funds) own 338,182 in Long, 177,937 in Short and 35,597 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.9:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 1,014 while increasing short positions by 2,249. • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on the Euro. Trade Setup with Micro Euro/USD Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the CME Micro Euro/USD Futures ($M6E). M6E contracts have a notional value of 12,500 euro. With February 19th settlement price of 1.0435, each March contract (M6EH5) has a notional value of $13,044. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $260. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March M6E contract and the euro drops to $0.99. A short futures position would gain $668.75 (= (1.0435 – 0.99) x $12500). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +257% (= 668.75 / 260). The risk of shorting euro futures is rising euro. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set a stop-loss at 1.06 when entering the short order at 1.0435. If euro rebounds, the maximum loss would be $206.25 ( = (1.06 – 1.0435) *12500). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Daily DXY The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently indicating the likely direction after closing below 106.965. I anticipate a move back to the 107.200-250 range before continuing its bearish swing. Several confluences support this, including the reversal point, an ascending trendline, a descending trendline, a rejection candlestick, the daily 0.382 Fibonacci level, the 4-hour 0.5 Fibonacci level, and a 4-hour order block. My target for the DXY is 106.083. As for gold, it has reached a new all-time high of 2954.944. I expect a pullback before it heads higher, potentially towards the 3000 level. 4hr DXY Chart 1hr DXY Chart 30m Gold Chart
TVC:DXYShort
by ChartStrategist
1
xauusd video analysis for the weekXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025 This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns. 1. Fundamental Drivers A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold. B. Monetary Policy and Inflation Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices. Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold. C. Central Bank Demand Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand. 2. Technical Analysis A. Short-Term Signals (February–March) Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound. Key Levels: Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary). Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier). 2. Key Technical Levels Support Levels: Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally. Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024. Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets. Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level. 3. Momentum Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory. Moving Averages (MA): 50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support. 200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength. Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart. 4. Chart Patterns and Trends Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure. Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920. Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest. 5. Scenarios for the Week Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000. Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist. Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850. Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively. Bullish Targets/ Resistance 2890 2906 2928 2934 2959 2972 2987 3023 Bearish/Support 2872 2857 2841 2807 2781
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
5
Gold(XAUUSD Bullish Breakout with Upside Potential Towards 2,940This chart shows a bullish structure in gold (XAUUSD) on the 15-minute timeframe. 1. **Break of Structure (BOS)** – There was a BOS to the upside, confirming bullish momentum. 2. **Change of Character (ChoCH)** – Multiple ChoCH events indicate a shift in sentiment before the breakout. 3. **Liquidity & Equal Highs (EQH)** – A weak high is marked around 2,940, suggesting a possible liquidity grab. 4. **Demand Zone & Trendline Support** – The price rebounded from a key demand zone and trendline support, fueling the breakout. 5. **Current Price Action** – Gold is currently in a minor pullback around 2,911 after a strong bullish push. The next potential target is near the 2,940 resistance. If the price holds above the 2,904–2,911 support zone, further upside is expected toward 2,940. A failure to hold could lead to a retest of lower demand zones.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
2
USDX, DXYUSDX price is approaching the support zone of 106.45-105.36. If the price fails to break through the main support zone of 105.36, it is expected that there is a chance that the price will rebound. On the contrary, if the price can break through the level of 105.36, it will have a negative impact on the dollar. 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Serana2324
SHORT! US Dollar.....For nowUSD is in a clear wave 2 down for many reasons. - Tariffs speculation - Inflation data higher than expected - US M2 money supply increase - US manufacturing output drops and Retail sales drop Moreover, the dollar for now is bearish until reversals in the aforementioned list of causes for its recent decline. Primarily, look for the FED to hold off on any future rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury Yields(Bond Sell off) rising recently is an indication that the market does not expect any FED rate cuts happening anytime soon. This could spur demand for the US Dollar as other Central Banks globally look to continue to cut rates (i.e. ECB and BOE).
TVC:DXYShort
by UCHE9121
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Momentum: Key Buy Zone & Targets Identify gold (XAU/USD) analysis on the 1-hour chart indicates a strong bullish trend with a clear buying opportunity. Here are the key observations: **Analysis & Key Levels:** 1. **Uptrend Formation:** - The price is consistently making higher highs and higher lows. - A trendline is supporting the move, confirming bullish momentum. 2. **Support & Buying Zone:** - The chart highlights a **possible buy zone** around 2,930–2,920. - This area coincides with a prior resistance-turned-support, making it an ideal re-entry for buyers. 3. **Resistance & Target Levels:** - **1st target:** Around **2,943** – a short-term resistance level. - **2nd target:** Around **2,960–2,970**, indicating a higher timeframe resistance where price might slow down. **Trading Plan:** - A potential buy entry could be near the **support zone (2,930–2,920)** if price pulls back. - If the price remains above the trendline, the bullish move is likely to continue toward 2,943 and potentially 2,970. - A break below the trendline could invalidate the bullish move, leading to a deeper correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
3
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan (Day/Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 108.500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 105.500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. 💠Fundamental Analysis Weakening US Economy: The US economy's growth is slowing down, which could lead to a decline in the dollar's value. Falling Interest Rates: The US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar. 💠Macroeconomic Analysis The US economy's growth, inflation rates, and employment numbers influence the dollar's strength. Global economic trends, such as trade tensions and geopolitical events, also impact the dollar's value. 💠COT Data Analysis Net Short Positions: Institutional traders and large banks have increased their net short positions in the DXY Dollar Index, indicating a bearish sentiment. COT Ratio: The COT ratio has fallen to 1.2, indicating a bearish trend. 💠Market Sentimental Analysis Bearish Sentiment: 55% of client accounts are short on this market, indicating a bearish sentiment. Option Skew: The 25-delta put option skew has increased to 15, indicating a bearish sentiment. 💠Positioning Data Analysis Institutional Traders: Institutional traders and large banks are positioning themselves for a bearish trend, with some predicting a decline to 105.50. Corporate Traders: Corporate traders are also monitoring the index's performance, considering factors like interest rates and global economic trends. 💠Overall Outlook Bearish Trend: The DXY Dollar Index is experiencing a bearish trend, with a potential decline to 105.50. Key Support Levels: 106.57, 105.50. 💠Technical Analysis Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is indicating a bearish trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has fallen to 40, indicating oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands: The lower band breakout indicates a bearish trend. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FXOPEN:DXYShort
by Thief_Trader
5