Dollar Index (DXY): Trading Plan For Next Week Explained 💲
Dollar Index is coiling around a solid rising trend line.
We can see a nice consolidation on a 4H time frame.
To buy the market with a confirmation,
look for a bulilsh breakout of 104.3 resistance.
4H candle close above that will confirm a violation.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated then at least to 104.65
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of a trend line may trigger a bearish continuation.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Dollarindex
Dollar Surges as German PMI Data Triggers Reversal SignalsThe dollar index has surged strongly following today's release of the German Flash Manufacturing PMI, revealing a contraction in industry expansion with a reading of 42.3. This unexpected downturn not only affects the Euro but also casts implications on GBP pairs. The disappointing figures have sparked concerns among investors, potentially exerting downward pressure on both cross pairs against the USD and paving the way for a correction that could boost the Dollar's value.
From a technical standpoint, the USD appears to be rebounding, finding support at the dynamic trendline of the uptrend. This coincides with the convergence of the 200 Moving Average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing low, suggesting a significant level of support for the currency. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory, indicating a potential reversal in price direction. Traders are closely watching for signs of a correction and subsequent increase in the Dollar's strength.
In light of these technical indicators, attention is turning to the possibility of employing a cross Moving RSI average strategy with a 70-30 trigger as confirmation.
This strategy, which is detailed in an educational post linked below, could provide further insight into market movements and assist traders in navigating the current landscape of uncertainty.
As market participants analyze the implications of the German PMI data and monitor technical signals, the trajectory of the Dollar index remains uncertain. However, with the potential for a correction in the cross pairs against the USD and the technical indicators suggesting a rebound, traders are advised to stay vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the forex market.
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 1 March 2024DOLLAR_INDX, H4
The Dollar Index maintains a steady position as the US Core PCE Price Index registers a decline to 2.4% on a yearly basis in January, in line with market projections. Despite the dip, the impact on the Dollar's performance against other currencies is limited, as attention turns to additional economic indicators, including disappointing Initial Jobless Claims and Chicago PMI figures.
The Dollar Index is trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has
illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 61, suggesting the index might extend its
gains since the RSI stays above the midline.
Resistance level: 104.50, 104.95
Support level: 103.70, 102.90
Eur/Usd Review - Cad CPI Change of SentimentHello traders welcome back to another detailed analysis of the Eurusd currency pair. This week was bullish and quite volatile. Cad inflation news on tuesday was a catalyst in my opnion for a chnage of sentiment in the currency markets. At the very least, it sparked decent volume and a selloff in the USD.
Leave a rocket if you enjoyed the video and comment for more analysis.
Ascending Broadening Wedge in DXY - Up or Down?As seen in the chart, there is a "Ascending Broadening Wedge" pattern in the DXY. This is normally a bearish pattern with a trend reversal. Therefore, we have two options in front of us.
1) The first option is for the wedge to have one more leg to the upper resistance line. This can happen when the minor bearish trend line is broken to the upside.
2) The second option is a break of the wedge lower support line, which could start a new downtrend in the DXY.
We will find out next week which one will materialise.
Eur/Usd Friday Today we can observe the end of the week. Price action was uncertain this during London session. At NY open 1hr candle we recieved a candle closure above the consolidation from London session. This suggests a breakout to the upside as we mirror clean traffic candles to the left and head towards 1.08534.
If not, then it is friday and the weekly candle may pull back down into the range to end the week. At that we would be heading back towards 1.0805 with the next 4hr candle.
Manufacturing Data turns Manic 👹Welcome back traders to another Top-Down Analysis for Eur/Usd.
We can observe an increase on EU that began on Tuesday of this week. As the week has progressed we have slowly climbed up to the next Daily Level 1.088. Better than expected numbers for EURO manufacturing data has provided a nice boost of bullish momenutm and continuation for the Eurusd to the upside. However, we've now filled the clean traffic range on the 1hr/4hr timeframes that extended from 1.080. In the coming session I am anticipating a selloff away from the Daily level 1.088. We may retest the high that we've created at 1.087 but things are looking a bit manic. Either way we must remain flexible with our bias when executing Intra-day.
Dollar Index Could Be Topping HereThe DX price is right in a resistance zone as noted with the rectangle and also with the two price tops circled in black. We also have a spiking weekly candle.
To increase the odds, it would be good for DX to close down below 103.80 tomorrow, Friday, February 9, 2024. The current price is 104.01.
Another confirmation of lower DX prices would be a close below the trend line.
Lower DX prices would imply gold stocks,, gold, silver and other commodities going up; also, stocks often benefit from a lower dollar.
DXY(US Dollar),🔴Can grab the sell-side liquidity?🔴
As you can see the price consolidating for a while and we should see what happens next.
By looking at the chart, we can figure out the price created the sell-side liquidity that formed as equal lows that can be smart money targets. In that case, I don't want to see the price go higher than the key level (107.675).
In addition, there is the hourly bearish FVG that can keep the price and act as a resistance.
So if the price can close below the liquidity void (104.280), we can expect to see a lower price.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️20/02/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
Dollar Index testing key supportFollowing today’s US data releases, the dollar index has now reached the top of a key support area between 104.00 to 104.27. This area converges with the high from December and point of origin of this week's breakout. The DXY will need to stay above this pivotal area to maintain its bullish bias. Failure to do so would be a bearish outlook, particular when you consider how strong inflation data was on Tuesday. The line in the sand for me is at 103.90, the low of this week. Any move below that would invalidate the short-term bullish technical picture as it will create a lower low.
Assuming that the above support area will continue to hold, the Dollar Index may rise above 105.00 initially ahead of 105.65 next, with the latter being an old support area.
US dollar weakens as retail sales drop
The US dollar was already lower on the session and then fell further in response to the mixed data releases from the US, with retail sales looking particular weak. But I reckon it is far too early to talk about the top for the dollar, and a recovery for the greenback is likely given the long-term bullish trend and recent strong data releases from other sectors of the economy, plus a hawkish Federal Reserve. The soft retail sales figures could be an outlier after beating expectations in each of the previous six months. What’s more, import costs posted its largest gain in nearly two years in January, which could stop the disinflation process. The Fed won’t like that, and after a hot inflation report, they will be even more cautious.
The dollar’s slight weakness over the past couple of days has coincided with market pricing of rate cuts in 2024 rising back to around 100 basis points after falling to 90 bps following the hot CPI data. But with talks of an early rate cut in March effectively over and lots of questions marks over a May rate cut, this should help keep the dollar supported on the dips.
Rising import costs is inflationary
Signs of sticky inflation are everywhere. Rising costs of petroleum were among the reasons behind the sharp 0.8% monthly rise in import costs last month. This was the biggest rise since March 2022, although a revised 0.7% decline in the previous month from zero means the data is perhaps less alarming that the headline suggests. Still, the rise was not insignificant buy was unexpected. This comes hot on the heels of the CPI data showing price pressures came down less than expected last month. With inflationary pressures on the rise, yields could remain supported for longer, undermining lower yielding currencies like the yen and franc.
Today’s publication of jobless claims also beat, as too did the manufacturing indices of Philly and NY. But softer industrial production and retail sales meant the dollar would head lower, a move which, as I mentioned, is unlikely to be sustained. Headline retail sales fell 0.8% while core sales declined by 0.6%, both missing expectations. Industrial output declined 0.1% m/m.
Looking ahead, on Friday, we will have PPI, building permits, and UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com
Nice runThe SP has had a nice bull run the past 5 weeks. Now is hitting an important psychological and technical resistance at 500. It might try to break it on the upcoming days but I think it's going to pull back hard soon. I'm already taking profits I have cash sitting there until new opportunities come. I still have some long positions but I'm mostly in cash. Also I'm long in the Dollar on short term. Looks strong, I'm shorting AUD/USD and GBP/USD.
Don't be greedy, be smart and patient.
DXY Bull Flag SetupHi Traders!
There is a bull flag pattern developed on the DXY 4H chart.
Here are the details:
The price action looks bullish, and the market looks like it is about to complete the consolidation phase in the flag's channel as the flag pattern is in its late stages.
The market is still above the 20 EMA, which is a bullish signal. As long as the market remains above the EMA and flag channel support, our view will remain bullish.
Preferred Direction: Buy
Resistance (FLAG CHANNEL): 104.669
Support (FLAG CHANNEL): 103.808
Technical Indicators: 20 EMA
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
DXY, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for DXY on 4h chart.
There have been no changes since the last update.
we are in wave Y of a Double Zigzag WXY pattern.
If the assumption of this scenario is correct, wave Y will be completed soon.
At the same time wave Y completes, Upper-degree wave ⅱ will complete.
next phase is upper-degree wave ⅲ.
it will resume its downtrend.
Last time my idea.
■Feb 12, 2024. 1D, short-term analysis.
■Jan 28, 2024. middle-term analysis.
XAUUSD|Daily analysis and important areasHello friends, I hope you are doing well
You can see the gold chart in the 1-hour time frame.
In the analysis on Friday, it did not go according to my opinion and the related news caused fluctuations in gold, and as a result, selling pressure on gold increased.
The drawn resistance level prevented the price from moving upwards and from this level we saw the gold price fall.
Currently, it is in the demand area, but there are no signs of entering buying positions, and there is still more selling pressure.
The supply areas drawn on the chart, the 15-minute and 1-hour supply areas are good areas to enter sell positions.
With the failure of this demand area, which is currently facing the price, we can test selling positions by returning to this area.