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Dollar Strengthening and the coming election cycleUS Dollar will continue to ping pong between supply and demand during the election cycle. With other major economies like China's being Paper Tigers, the U.S. will by osmosis become stronger. As we learned years ago, nationalized tightly controlled markets don't work as well or at all. The CCP will try and buy gold and other assets to de-dollarize which will only work for so long to make the dollar look weaker than it actually is. Trump's cabinet is largely ...less scientifically or mathematically inclined when it comes to policy. This will hurt the U.S. economy by increasing tax breaks for corpos and making it harder to maintain a healthy economy as wealth disparity increases. Despite Biden's less than stellar speaking skills, his policies reflect modern neoliberal globalist economic principles which tend to make America wealthier than other superpowers. Overall, we should expect a hawkish trend despite the extreme propaganda machine telling you that the dollar is weakening. This is a great contrarian opportunity. That is, if you think Biden will win the election. If not, get ready to look towards other assets like gold and Bitcoin.
TVC:DXYLong
by ghosttrees
14
U.S Recession RiskECONOMICS:EUINTR ECONOMICS:USINTR Potential U.S. Recession Amidst Late Business Cycle and Interest Rate Adjustments Dear Valued Clients, Currently, we are closely monitoring the developments in the U.S. economy and the potential onset of a recession. Current Economic Overview The U.S. is in the late stage of its business cycle, characterized by slowing growth and increased economic uncertainty. Historically, this phase often precedes an economic contraction. The Federal Reserve (FED) has been proactive in managing interest rates to curb inflation and sustain economic growth. However, as the accompanying chart highlights, there are signs that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon. Interest Rate Dynamics Our analysis suggests that if the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to raise interest rates while the FED initiates rate cuts, we could witness a significant shift in economic momentum. The historical data depicted in the chart indicates that such divergences in interest rate policies between the ECB and the FED have often foreshadowed U.S. recessions. The blue line represents the ECB interest rates, while the yellow line denotes the FED rates. Implications for the U.S. Economy The late business cycle phase, coupled with potential rate cuts, heightens the risk of a recession. The red zones on the chart delineate past U.S. recessions, emphasizing the critical juncture we currently face. Should the ECB's interest rates surpass those of the U.S., the resultant economic pressures could tip the U.S. economy into a recessionary period. Our team is here to support you in making informed decisions to safeguard and grow your investments. Thank you for your continued trust and partnership. Leveraged Team www.leveraged.co.za
TVC:DXYLong
by liamsmith
5
US Dollar Index Daily TF DXY None Farm Payroll outcome from 13:30 today U.S PRIVATE NONFARM PAYROLLS (JUL) ACTUAL: 97K VS 136K PREVIOUS; EST 148K U.S PARTICIPATION RATE (JUL) ACTUAL: 62.7% VS 62.6% PREVIOUS U.S MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS (JUL) ACTUAL: 1K VS -8K PREVIOUS; EST -1K U.S AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS (JUL) ACTUAL: 34.2 VS 34.3 PREVIOUS; EST 34.3 U.S GOVERNMENT PAYROLLS (JUL) ACTUAL: 17.0K VS 70.0K PREVIOUS looks like it is going to close below 104.018 The DXY has dropped 100 pips following the non-farm payroll results and is expected to close below 104.024, indicating a bearish trend. Consequently, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and GOLD are likely to swing bullish. My area of interest is around 102.959, where I anticipate a rejection due to the presence of a -0.27 Fibonacci level and an order block. This should lead to a pullback before resuming the bearish trend to create new lower lows. Gold 4hr TF Gold is moving higher as a result of the non-farm payroll outcome. I expect this upward trend to continue until it hits my area of interest at 2,482, where I anticipate a rejection. After this pullback, I foresee gold resuming its upward movement to achieve a new all-time high (ATH).https://www.tradingview.com/x/tuk0BSO7/
TVC:DXYShort
by ChartStrategist
US Dollar Index (DXY) Rangebound Ahead of NFPThe US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a big selloff Wednesday as the Fed emphasized the downside risks in the labor market. Moving forward, the key level to watch will be the 4-month low near 103.65. If we see a soft jobs report, traders could increase bets on a more aggressive 50bps interest rate cut from the Fed, taking the greenback below its key support zone in the mid-103.00s. Meanwhile, a solid jobs report could alleviate some of those immediate fears and take DXY back toward the weekly highs in the upper-104.00s. -MW
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Where is the Dollar heading next ?• Dollar has been showing weakness in recent weeks as markets are expecting the FED to deliver its first rate cut in September. • The index fell from levels near 106 to 103.60 and then corrected to 104.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement). • If the jobs report tomorrow shows additional weakness, the Dollar should face selling pressure and break the previous support at 103.60 potentially down to 102.41. • Breakouts are occasionally re-tested. Therefore, the index could potentially breakdown to 102.41, re-test 103.60 and then make another leg lower and so on. • Same principle applies for upward breakouts, which should be the case if the jobs report points to increasing wages and tight labor market.
TVC:DXY
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
The USD and US bond yields immediately decreased.The DXY index - measuring the fluctuation of the USD compared to six major currencies in the world - decreased from 104.8 points (8:00 p.m., July 30) to 103.94 points (8:00 p.m., July 31, Vietnamese time). Male). Thus, there are more positive signs for the US economy. This is a factor that may cause the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to have a plan to lift monetary policy at a faster pace to ensure the US economy does not fall into recession in the future. Accordingly, in July the number of jobs created in the US was 122,000 jobs, lower than the forecast of 147,000. The USD and US bond yields immediately decreased.
TVC:DXYLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
$USINTR - A Month of BreathThe Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more. It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since September 2007. Throughout Fed's announcement The Dollar Index TVC:DXY plunged to what can be said Wave C completed from A-B-C Elliot Waves Correction (attached ideas) Have the markets priced in Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY and Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR ? TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this Idea .
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
DXY: Anticipating Long Opportunities Amid Fed Policy and NFP RepThe US Dollar has experienced a decline due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver dovish guidance in its upcoming policy statement. Investors anticipate the Fed will recognize progress in curbing inflation and highlight growing risks to the strength of the labor market. Following the Fed's policy announcement, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for July will become the crucial trigger for the US Dollar's movement. In our analysis, we've identified a potential demand area around $103.177. At this level, we are opening our first long position with a minimum target of 2R. Should the price continue to fall, we are prepared to shift our focus to the next demand area at $101.422 for additional long opportunities. Given the current market conditions and our analysis, we are strategically looking for long positions on the DXY, anticipating a rebound from these key demand areas. ✅ Please share your thoughts about DXY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
1
DXY is heading to 103.7 maybe lower(07/31/2024)In our last analysis, our predicted zone for DXY correction played well, the DXY corrected from 103.7 to 104.8 and crashed after hitting the last resistance. We are expecting DXY to retest the 103.7 zone again at least until NFP data. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
TVC:DXYShort
by fortunamarkets
MarketBreakdown | USDCAD, NZDUSD, CRUDE OIL, DXY Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 The pair is currently testing a significant daily structure resistance. The intraday price action looks bearish at the moment. I think that the pair may start a correctional movement from the underlined blue area. 2️⃣ #NZDUSD daily time frame 🇳🇿🇺🇸 The market is approaching a significant weekly resistance cluster that is based on 2 important historic highs. I think that we may see a correctional movement/pullback soon. 3️⃣ #WTI CRUDE OIL daily time frame 🛢️ Crude Oil updated a low on a daily, violating a key horizontal support. It confirms the strength of the sellers. The market may keep trading in a bearish trend within the boundaries of the underlined channel. 4️⃣ DOLLAR INDEX #DXY daily time frame 💵 We see a nice correctional movement after a strong bearish impulse. The market is currently trading within a bearish flag pattern. Bearish breakout of the support of the flag will be a strong bearish trend-following signal. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
DXY - 4H bullish soonDXY is currently consolidating under a support zone, but from my perspective, this is just a stop-hunting trap. The bottom of the channel is likely to provide strong support for the index. Historically, such setups often lead to a reversal, and the current price action suggests a similar outcome. Additionally, with the US government likely to support their currency before the upcoming election, this could be a critical time to watch for a bounce. It's essential to consider the broader economic and political context, which may drive the dollar index higher, especially if the support holds and the consolidation phase concludes.
TVC:DXYLong
by Sober_Trading