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Dollar Loses Shine as US Economy Shows Signs of CoolingThe tide may be turning for the US dollar. After a period of strength, investors are growing less optimistic about the greenback as recent economic data suggests a slowdown in the US economy. This shift in sentiment is reflected in positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which shows a net short position on the dollar for the first time in six weeks. Signs of a Cooling US Economy Several factors are contributing to the cooling sentiment on the dollar. Recent economic reports have indicated a potential slowdown in the US. Growth may be decelerating after a strong 2023, with factors like inflation and rising interest rates potentially impacting consumer spending and business investment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has embarked on a series of interest rate hikes to combat inflation. While these hikes are intended to curb inflation, they can also have a dampening effect on economic activity. Businesses may be hesitant to borrow and invest, and consumers may tighten their belts as borrowing costs rise. CFTC Data Reveals Shift in Investor Positioning The CFTC data provides valuable insights into investor sentiment on the foreign exchange market. The data tracks the net long or short positions held by leveraged funds, which include hedge funds and other large speculators, and asset managers. According to the latest CFTC data, leveraged funds still held some net long positions on the dollar last week. However, this bullishness was outweighed by a significant increase in net short positions held by asset managers. This shift in positioning resulted in a combined net short position of $5.36 billion as of May 21st, compared to a net long position of $2.02 billion just a week earlier. Market Implications of the Dollar's Decline A weaker dollar can have several implications for the global economy. It can make US exports more competitive, as they become cheaper for foreign buyers. Conversely, imports into the US become more expensive. This can potentially lead to higher inflation in the US as the cost of imported goods increases. A weaker dollar can also impact other currencies. If investors lose confidence in the US economy, they may seek refuge in other safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen or the Swiss franc. This could lead to a strengthening of these currencies relative to the dollar. The Road Ahead: Volatility and Data Dependence Analysts expect currency positioning to remain volatile in the near term. The direction of the dollar will likely hinge on incoming US economic data. Strong economic data could reignite bullish sentiment on the dollar, while further signs of a slowdown could exacerbate the recent decline. The FOMC's monetary policy decisions will also be closely watched. If the Fed signals a more aggressive pace of rate hikes to combat inflation, the dollar could find support. However, if the Fed slows down the pace of hikes or even starts cutting rates in the future, as some analysts predict, the dollar could weaken further. Conclusion The recent decline in bullish sentiment on the dollar reflects growing concerns about the health of the US economy. The CFTC data highlights a shift in investor positioning, with a net short position emerging for the first time in six weeks. The future direction of the dollar remains uncertain and will depend on the trajectory of the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by bryandowningqln
XAU/USD Monday Trades ReviewToday's Trade Summary 📊 2x Trades Taken (1x Win & 1x Break Even) 📈 EUR/USD failed to gain enough momentum when the NY markets opened, so we closed for break even to protect our profits. XAU/USD (Gold) hit TP 1 for a 98.5 pips move, with all profits taken off the table at this time of writing, equating to a 1:1 Risk Reward gain. 💰🏅 I still expect XAU/USD to move to the upside, but I'm always a fan of securing the profits and being risk-free. I had 10% left in the trade, and I prefer to exit completely, enjoy the rest of the evening, and protect my psychology with a clean win to head into tomorrow's trading day positively. 📊😊 Hope you all had a great day and will catch you in the AM for tomorrow's trades. 🌞 Capital Club Team 💼
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FXCapitalClub
DXY Index is Ready to Pump by 🌄Morning Candlestick Pattern🌄🏃‍♂️DXY Index is moving near the 🟢 Support zone($104.27-$103.90) 🟢, and 200_SMA(Daily) and 100_SMA(Daily) , and the lower line of the ascending channel . 💡Also, the Morning Candlestick Pattern is clearly visible. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY Index has completed the Double Three Correction(WXY) in the support zone . 🔔I expect the DXY Index to rise to at least the Resistance line . U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
5
Expecting Some Strength In The US DollarBased on the chart, here are the reasons why I would consider buying the dollar index: Uptrend Resumption: The dollar index has been in a steady uptrend since the beginning of the year, and after a brief correction, it appears to be resuming its upward trend. Buying into this momentum could be a profitable strategy. Support Held: The index has bounced off a significant support level, indicating that buyers are stepping in to defend this level. This could be a sign of strength and a potential buying opportunity. Bullish Reversal Pattern: The recent price action resembles a bullish reversal pattern, such as a candlestick rejection, which could be a sign of a trend reversal to the upside. Fundamentals Align: The dollar is often seen as a safe-haven currency, and with global economic uncertainty on the rise, investors may be seeking refuge in the US dollar, driving its value higher. Major Level Holds: The index has held above a major psychological level (104), which could be a sign of strength and a potential launching point for a further rally. These are just some of the reasons why I would consider buying the dollar index. However, it's essential to conduct thorough analysis, consider multiple perspectives, and manage risk before making any trading decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoDante_FX
DXY ( US DOLLAR Index ) Analysis 19/05/24Scenario 01 : if the Federal Reserve raise interest rates : Probability of this to happend is lower in my opinion but could happend somehow 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of the dollar strengthens. This is because higher interest rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the dollar. So, the Dixie would likely see an increase in value. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* If interest rates rise, the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, would likely see an uptick as well. Again, this is due to increased demand for the dollar from foreign investors seeking higher returns. Scenario 02 : if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates the same: 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* If interest rates remain unchanged, the dollar's value might stay relatively stable. Without a change in interest rates to attract or deter investment, the Dixie may not experience significant fluctuations. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* Similarly, the U.S. Dollar Index could remain steady if interest rates are unchanged. It might experience some minor movements based on other economic factors, but overall, it's likely to maintain its current level. Scenario 03 : if the Federal Reserve Cut / Lower interest rates: (Probability is High because of the inflation is high and Jerome Mentioned he might Cut rates in the next meeting) 1. *Dixie (USD Index):* Lowering interest rates usually leads to a decrease in the value of the dollar. This is because lower rates make it less attractive for foreign investors to hold onto dollars, as they can find higher returns elsewhere. So, the Dixie might depreciate. 2. *U.S. Dollar Index:* A cut in interest rates could lead to a decline in the U.S. Dollar Index as well. Lower rates could weaken the dollar's value relative to other currencies, causing the index to decrease. In summary, changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve can have significant impacts on both the Dixie and the U.S. Dollar Index, influencing their values in the foreign exchange market.
TVC:DXY
by TraderFa9ir
The dollar will capitulate and then soar!Updating my TVC:DXY predictions: 1. Everything hinges on carry trade with Japan 2. Japan is raising rates until they resubmit to negative interest rates this summer 3. The USDJPY will plummet until summer, this will cause the dollar to go down which increases inflation in the USA and deflation everywhere else due to the dollar being a reserve currency. 4. I believe the FED will cause inflation to go higher kicking the can down the street 5. After this summer the dollar will explode to over 140+ killing all other currencies as they print to escape deflationary depression. 6. The dollar will finally explode making way for CBDC's 7. Gold, Bitcoin, Rupee will be my final three picks for the end of 2030 for best assets and currencies. Of course you'll want a farm and freeze dried food for the coming collapse.
TVC:DXY
by EmptyEternity
6
Will the Dollar continue its Downtrend or change its Direction?The dollar index #DX1! respected its previous downtrend and the News about CPI (Consumer Prices) today helped with this movement to the downside. Will the Dollar continue its Downtrend or will change its Direction to the Upside? CPI m/m Actual: 0.3% Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% Empire State Manufacturing Index Actual: -15.6 Forecast: -9.9 Previous: -14.3 "The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies including the yen and the euro, fell to a one-month low at 104.41, but later pared losses to trade 0.25% lower at 104.77". References: -https://www.forexfactory.com/index.php -https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-droops-ahead-crucial-cpi-test-yen-under-pressure-2024-05-15/
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by ValdiviaTrading
Gold analysis for 13/05/24 & 14/05/24According to my analysis and according to what you taught me, Tamas : Scenario 1 : If CPI comes negative on Wednesday, it could lead to deflation concerns, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates to stimulate economic activity and prevent deflationary pressures. A negative CPI could indicate a decrease in the general price level of goods and services, potentially signaling weak demand or economic contraction A decision by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates could weaken the dollar, as lower interest rates typically make a currency less attractive to investors seeking higher yields. This could lead to a depreciation of the dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of other currencies Gold prices may rise in response to a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Additionally, concerns about inflation and currency depreciation amid monetary easing measures could further support gold prices , Gold may Target 2394-2400 Scenario 2: A positive CPI indicates an increase in the general price level of goods and services, suggesting inflationary pressures. This could lead to concerns about the purchasing power of the currency and potential future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to curb inflation If the PPI also shows an increase on Tuesday, it could reinforce inflationary expectations, indicating rising costs for producers. This might further support the case for potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to address inflationary pressures Technical Analysis : We're currently in Correction Wave , and Expecting Price to Pump for Gold target 2394-2401 Advice : please always use a propre risk management this is my analyse and good luck Make sure if you like my Analysis to boost up my post and Comment
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TraderFa9ir
DXY(Dollar Index):🟢Possible scenarios🟢(Details on caption)Well hello, traders. Here is my view on the DXY daily chart. As you can see the price left the buy-side liquidity which formed as an equal high, and then respected to the 50% of bullish FVG which is internal range liquidity. In this condition usually, the price seeks to the external range liquidity. So the first scenario is bullish and I follow this scenario (High probability scenario) The second scenario is bearish, if the price respects the bearish order block or mean threshold of this order block we will see the price move down. All in all, if the bearish order block can not hold the price we will see a bullish week, and if the price respects the bearish order block the weekly candle will be bearish. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️01/05/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
TVC:DXYLong
by VahidTradingCR
1
The Dollar(DXY): Charting the Path to Bullish MomentumGreetings Traders, I'm observing a sustained bullish institutional order flow in the Dollar, targeting the weekly and monthly buy stops as my buy-side objectives. Currently, we're operating within discount prices, having rebalanced the daily discount Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tapped into the mitigation block, a zone of institutional support. Additionally, price has respected the rejection block and provided a market structure shift, signaling a potential continuation to the upside. Watch the DXY & GBPUSD Weekly Outlook Video: Feel free to leave any questions you may have. Best Regards, The_Architect
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
DOLLAR INDEX DXY Bearish Side Heist PlanHola Ola Hello Traders, This is our master plan to Heist Bearish side of DXY market. kindly please follow the plan i have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry, Our target is Green Zone it is High risk Dangerous area Consolidation will happen Bull Trend will continue to go Upside.. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Loot and escape near the target 🎯 support our robbery plan we can make money take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
TVC:DXYShort
by Thief_Trader