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US dollar Index Analyse for long termBearish Scenario: Increased Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation of the conflict leads to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sparking concerns about regional stability and security. Risk Aversion: Investors flee from riskier assets, including the U.S. dollar, as uncertainty rises. Instead, they seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold, driving up gold prices. Dollar Weakens: The U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies due to risk aversion and concerns about the potential economic impact of the conflict on global markets. This weakens the Dollar Index. Bullish Scenario: Resolution of Conflict: Diplomatic efforts or a ceasefire agreement lead to a resolution of the conflict between Israel and Gaza, easing geopolitical tensions in the region. Market Confidence: Investor confidence improves as the risk of broader regional instability diminishes. This encourages investors to move away from safe-haven assets like gold and back into riskier assets, including the U.S. dollar. Dollar Strengthens: The U.S. dollar strengthens against other currencies as investors return to dollar-denominated assets, leading to an increase in the Dollar Index. These scenarios highlight how the resolution or escalation of the conflict can influence investor sentiment, market dynamics, and the direction of both the U.S. dollar and gold prices.
TVC:DXY
by TraderFa9ir
6
DXY mini wave upward(5/7/2024)After the NFP and unemployment data, The DXY TVC:DXY faced a big correction. In this week, we believe this week is going to be calm because USD has no game-changing data. there is a possibility that the DXY is going to make some retracements in an upward direction. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by fortunamarkets
DXY (dollar index) weekly ideaCurrently, the dollar trend indicates a bearish direction, suggesting that pairs I typically trade, such as GU, EU, and gold, may rise. Presently, I anticipate a retracement to occur towards an 8-hour supply zone I've identified, facilitating the continuation of the bearish trajectory. This ideally aligns with my strategy until the price drops to around the 104 level, potentially sparking a bullish rally upwards. At that point, I'll need to seek selling opportunities for my other pairs. The dollar's price action appears clear, and there are still imbalances below that require fulfilment. Have a great trading week guys!
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
Yen Wobbles, Gold Gleams: A Stirring in Global Currency MarketsThe foreign exchange market witnessed a tug-of-war this week, with the Japanese yen (JPY) taking center stage. Speculation surrounding potential intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the weakening yen against the US dollar (USD) sent ripples through the currency landscape. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a broad measure of the greenback's strength, dipped, impacting the price of gold, which became more attractive to some buyers. The Yen's Woes: Intervention or Market Forces? The Japanese yen has been on a depreciating streak recently, driven by a widening gap between Japanese and US interest rates. Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), maintains an ultra-loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance with potential interest rate hikes on the horizon. This disparity makes yen-denominated assets less appealing to investors seeking higher returns, pushing the yen's value down. The recent rumors of intervention suggest that Japanese authorities are concerned about the rapid depreciation of the yen. A weaker yen can be a double-edged sword. While it makes Japanese exports more competitive in the global marketplace, it also pushes up the cost of imported goods, leading to potential inflationary pressures within Japan. Intervention's Effectiveness: A Double-Edged Sword Currency intervention involves a central bank buying or selling its own currency to influence its exchange rate. In this case, buying yen would aim to strengthen it against the dollar. However, the effectiveness of such interventions depends on various factors. • Market Sentiment: If the market heavily anticipates further depreciation, a one-time intervention might have a limited impact. The BOJ would need to signal a sustained commitment to supporting the yen for a more significant effect. • Ammunition: Intervention requires significant financial resources. The BOJ's foreign exchange reserves would play a crucial role in its ability to sustain intervention efforts. The Greenback's Sway: DXY Dips, Gold Gleams The US Dollar Index (DXY) gauges the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of major currencies, including the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), and others. This week's dip in the DXY indicates a weakening of the US dollar against this basket of currencies. This can be attributed to several factors, including: • Profit-taking: After a period of strength, some investors might be taking profits from their dollar-denominated holdings. • Global Risk Aversion: Increased global uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions or economic concerns can lead investors to seek haven currencies, potentially weakening the dollar. Gold's Allure: A Beneficiary of a Weaker Dollar Gold is often perceived as a safe-haven asset during times of market volatility or economic uncertainty. When the US dollar weakens, gold becomes cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. This week's dip in the DXY could be contributing to some increased interest in gold. However, gold's price is influenced by various factors beyond the dollar's strength. Interest rates, inflation, and investor sentiment all play a role. Looking Ahead: A Dynamic Landscape The global currency market remains a dynamic environment, and the events of this week highlight how various factors can interact and influence exchange rates. The future direction of the yen and the DXY will depend on a combination of economic data releases, central bank actions, and broader market sentiment. Here are some key factors to watch in the coming days: • BOJ Policy Statements: Any signals from the BOJ regarding potential adjustments to its monetary policy could impact the yen's valuation. • US Economic Data: Upcoming US jobs reports and inflation data can influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting the DXY. • Geopolitical Developments: Global events with significant economic implications can trigger market volatility and impact currency valuations. By staying informed about these developments, market participants can make informed decisions about their currency positions and potentially take advantage of market opportunities.
Long
by bryandowningqln
DXY Index is Ready to Fill GAP🚀🏃‍♂️The DXY index is moving in the Ascending Channel and seems to have broken the 🔴 Heavy Resistance zone($105.88-$104.65) 🔴, and is currently moving in a small Descending Channel and making a pullback to this zone. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the DXY index has succeeded in completing the Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5) inside the descending channel . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD+) between two Consecutive Valleys . 🔔I expect the DXY index to Gp UP to at least the 🔵 GAP($106.613-$106.504) 🔵after breaking the upper line of the descending channel . ❗️⚠️Note⚠️❗️: If the DXY index can break the lower line of the descending channel, we can expect the DXY index to drop more. U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by pejman_zwin
1
Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics. Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance: • Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. • US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis. • Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal. The Ripple Effects The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets: • Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows. • Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets. • Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports. The Road Ahead The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength. The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility. The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Next move!(4/22/2024)In our last analysis, the DXY TVC:DXY continued its upward movement. actually due to geopolitical crisis, the market was betting on stronger dollar. We believe that this week is going to be calm and slow market. we are still bullish on US dollar. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by fortunamarkets
$DXY - Next Resistances to Watch *W & *D (tf) TVC:DXY *D (tf) Previous Ideas of Resistance to Watch (before & after 'play button' ) (before & after 'play button' ) Next decent Resistances for TVC:DXY to face will be the 0.5 Macro Fibb Level @107.7 level . Surpassing that via decent breakout, correction may be anticipated as a retest and confirmation for TVC:DXY to continue Higher. Meanwhile on the *W (tf), TVC:DXY managed not to close its 12 Consecutive Green Weekly Candlestick. Whats worrying is that the last Weekly Close was very Bearish in Price Action, printing whats called ' A Topping Tail '
INDEX:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
Fed Higher-for-Longer Strategy: Strong Dollar SqueezeThe Fed's Higher-for-Longer Strategy: A Strong Dollar Squeezes Markets The Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy is pushing the U.S. dollar to its limits. Chair Jerome Powell's recent pronouncements leave little doubt: rate cuts won't be coming soon. This strong dollar is creating a ripple effect across global markets, leaving other central banks and investors struggling to keep pace. The "higher-for-longer" strategy refers to the Fed's intention to maintain elevated interest rates for a sustained period. This is a critical tool for combating inflation, which remains a top concern for the U.S. economy. By raising interest rates, the Fed discourages borrowing and investment, thereby dampening economic activity and ultimately slowing inflation. However, this approach comes at a cost. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and foreign imports cheaper. This can hurt American businesses competing overseas and widen the U.S. trade deficit. Additionally, a surging dollar makes it more expensive for other countries to service their dollar-denominated debt. The impact is already being felt globally. Here's a breakdown of the key challenges: • Market Squeeze: Higher U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors. This entices capital to flow out of emerging markets and other economies, putting downward pressure on their currencies and stock markets. These economies become more vulnerable to financial instability as capital flight weakens their local markets. • Central Bank Dilemma: Other central banks are caught in a bind. They may want to raise rates to combat inflation in their own economies, but doing so could further strengthen the dollar relative to their currencies. This exacerbates the problems mentioned above and makes it difficult for them to achieve their desired economic goals. • Debt Sustainability: Countries with large amounts of dollar-denominated debt face a growing burden. As the dollar strengthens, it becomes more expensive for them to service their debt, potentially leading to defaults and financial crises. Despite these challenges, the Fed is unlikely to deviate from its course anytime soon. Powell has emphasized the need to bring inflation under control, even if it means sacrificing some economic growth. This unwavering commitment to taming inflation strengthens the dollar further, potentially leading to a prolonged period of global economic strain. However, there are some potential mitigating factors: • Weakening Dollar: The dollar's strength may not be sustainable in the long run. If the Fed eventually signals a pause in rate hikes, or if inflation shows signs of receding, the dollar could weaken. This would provide some relief to other economies. • Global Cooperation: International cooperation between central banks could help to ease the pressure on global markets. By coordinating their policies, central banks could find a way to address inflation without creating excessive currency volatility. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term effects of the Fed's policy. While the strong dollar offers some advantages for the U.S. economy, the potential for global economic instability cannot be ignored. The Fed's navigation of this complex situation will be critical in ensuring a smooth landing for the U.S. and the global economy as a whole.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln