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FED Press Conference SummaryThe FED left rates unchanged as expected and removed language talking about potentially raising rates – also fully expected. The hawkish twist came from a comment on waiting to be more confident about falling inflation. That sent the USD up, risk assets down. Then came Powell with a dovish comment – he signaled the Fed only needs a continuation of data, not another big fall in inflation. That sent the US Dollar down. He then made a blunt hawkish twist – saying a March rate cut is unlikely, and not the base case. That triggered a wild reaction in favor of the Greenback and against everything else. He then calmed down by saying it all depends on the economy – data-dependent. All in all, the USD ends the day higher, stocks lower, Gold lower. But, it's not over. I still expect markets to look at the data, and if it shows a continuation of slowing inflation a cooling labor market – Nonfarm Payrolls are coming on Friday – everything will change.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dc_analytics
The DXY Anomaly: Interpreting the Incoming CorrectionThis week's focus is on the potential for a minor retracement in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), highlighted by a noticeable bearish divergence when compared with the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures. This divergence is particularly significant as it suggests a weakening momentum in the dollar's recent uptrend. While both the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures have succeeded in setting new highs, the DXY has not followed suit, failing to create a higher high. This disparity indicates that the upward movement in the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures could be attributed more to a liquidity-driven event rather than a fundamental change in market sentiment towards the dollar. As a result, we can anticipate possible bearish movements in forex pairs where the dollar is the base currency in the coming week. Conversely, in pairs where the dollar is the quote currency, there could be bullish movements. However, it is important to note that these expectations are also contingent on the performance and dynamics of the counterpart currencies in these pairs. Traders should monitor the DXY for early signs of a reversal and adjust their positions accordingly, keeping in mind the broader implications of a weakening dollar on various currency pairs. As always, a comprehensive approach that considers global economic news and geopolitical developments will be essential in navigating the forex market during this period of potential dollar retracement.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
Is the DXY in a long term downtrend? DXY Downtrend The 6 month candle chart suggests we could be in for at least two red quarters which would suggesting positive markets..... which seems contradictory to the current sentiment BUT not the current charts (S&P, NASDAQ,etc). The weekly chart currently shows the critical resistance at $1.00 and we appear to be heading straight for it. I genuinely think that given the 10 month SMA turning to the downside will act as resistance and the three tests of the underside support may puncture the resistance and lead to further downside., As always there are no guarantee's but the DXY chart in my opinion currently looks bearish long term. I am currently looking at a time based analyses at the which will follow Time will tell PUKA OUT
TVC:DXYShort
by PukaCharts
DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 103.400 back down!As the dollar has been consolidating in the past week, opportunities near the current price are limited. However, my nearest Point of Interest (POI) is a supply zone on the 14-hour chart. I am looking to capitalize on this by selling to continue the bearish trend observed in the dollar index. I'll be patiently waiting for a breakout from this range, aiming to fill the imbalances above and eventually reach our identified supply zone. On the flip side, if price breaks below the consolidation, it could tap into a demand zone, sweeping liquidity beneath the range. In this scenario, I anticipate a bullish reaction, possibly a temporary move to the upside before eventually targeting our supply zone. Confluences for Dollar sells are as follows: - Overall temporary trend for this pair is bearish so this idea aligns with that bias. - Bullish pressure is now getting exhausted as you can see from the ranging price action - Price has left imbalances just below the supply that needs to get filled, validating our POI. - There is lots of liquidity to the downside that needs to be taken. - Price is due for a pullback to enter a level of supply if price wants to keep dropping lower. P.S. If price unfolds in a manner similar to how EURUSD is behaving, I will patiently await a breakout from this area. Subsequently, I will assess its behaviour and adapt my approach based on the information the market presents. Have a great week ahead traders!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY (Dollar Index) is comfortably sitting on support. Risk AheadTVC:DXY is trading within a long term support range and unless it breaks below and closes under 100 on a closing basis, equities and commodities would be at risk. Looking at the structure, the fall from top in DXY looks corrective in nature hence chances are it would rise from this support rather than falling below support. If DXY keeps moving up from here then markets would have topped out in near term at least a correction is likely to ensue. Keep an eye on this!
TVC:DXYShort
by YetAnotherTA
GOLD|Important supply and demand areasHello friends, I hope you are doing well. We have the gold chart in 1 hour.Currently, gold is fluctuating in a trending range area and we have the top and bottom of the trending range to enter trading positions. CPI data will be released today, if we have data that is in favor of gold, that is, the US inflation has decreased, this means that it will harm the dollar index and gold can move upwards. We should know that apart from the top of the trending range, which is a resistance, we have the next resistance in the area of (2046-2044) and after the resistance that is the base of the falling movement, it is around (2066-2064). On the other hand, if inflation is published more than expected, it will benefit the dollar index and can create selling pressure on gold. The area that currently maintains the price is the area (2016-2019). If this area is broken, the next support is the price range (2004-2008) and then the price range (1990-1995). If the price reaches these areas, we can enter trading positions with confirmation
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
1
DXY: Potential Bearish Gartley PatternThere is potential for a Bearish Gartley pattern. DXY Up, BTC Down. ..................................................................................................................... We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature. and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
TVC:DXY
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
Dollar Index - Two Paths For Q1 Based On Elliott Wave Dollar has shown a great volatility in terms of sharp and strong movements in the last few years, this instrument defiantly have a lot to prove to us before we change our long term view from Bearish to Bullish. Primary Count : Tracking the move from Jul 23 as an incomplete correction, missing one more leg higher towards the 108.28-110.36 area before the next drop occurs. Alternate Count : Consider the correction as already completed and anticipate a further decline of the US Dollar until the elections later this year. For next few weeks, we want to be more bullish in any case and see how market will react from 105.00 but let's see...
TVC:DXY
by ewNicola
💹 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX next week prevision 💹In the dollar we can see that it has to continue its downward trend at least until it reaches areas between 99,700 and 98,490 minimum to end with the 5 of the Elliot wave since it has not reached 100% of the fibonachi extension of the last reverse wave. It is making a brief correction before going down again to break SL's and go down again as we observe a strong accumulation in the area where it closed last week. As soon as it has touched the 100%-127% zone, the bullish trend will continue since it has to go to areas of 108,200 minimum. In summary go short options in the short term and when you have touched the 100 level great opportunities to go long.
TVC:DXY
by Jordi_MM1
A Deep Dive into DXY's Fundamental LandscapeGreetings Traders, Our focus pivots to the US Dollar Index (DXY), where we are actively evaluating a potential selling opportunity around the 102.900 zone. As DXY charts its course within a downtrend, the ongoing correction phase places it in proximity to the trend at the critical 102.900 resistance area. This comprehensive analysis delves into the fundamental landscape, incorporating key indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, highlighting the significance of monitoring DXY for a broader market perspective. Commencing with the FOMC decisions, the most recent meeting on December 13, 2023, maintained the interest rate at 2.00%. The accompanying dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve underscores a commitment to supporting economic growth amidst inflationary pressures. This dovish stance has implications for DXY, as it sets the stage for potential weakness in the US Dollar. Turning our attention to the CPI data, the latest figures reveal a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.2% for October 25, 2023. While this marks a slight increase from the previous 0.8%, it remains below the FOMC's target. The easing inflation provides the Federal Reserve with flexibility in its approach to interest rates, contributing to the overall dovish sentiment. The interest rate differentials between the United States and other major economies further shape the DXY landscape. As of December 13, 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate stands at 2.00%, while other central banks, such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan, maintain lower rates. This divergence amplifies the potential for DXY weakness, as traders seek higher yields in alternative currencies. Considering the broader market context, monitoring DXY is paramount before making trading decisions across USD pairs, gold, cryptocurrencies, and indices. The inverse correlation between DXY and these assets underscores the interconnected nature of global financial markets. A weakening DXY tends to boost the appeal of alternative assets, impacting trading dynamics across various instruments. In conclusion, as we assess a potential selling opportunity around the 102.900 zone in DXY, the confluence of CPI and FOMC dynamics paints a nuanced picture of USD weakness. Traders are urged to keep a vigilant eye on DXY for insights into the broader market sentiment, influencing trading decisions across a spectrum of financial instruments. Best of luck in your trades, Joe
TVC:DXYShort
by JoeChampion
1
$DXY -Ballads of the Dollar *W (11 Consecutive Green Weeks) Its time for a Dollar Story ! (previous lin echart idea 100-105 Range; before & after to the current spot) The Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has managed to print 11 Consecutive Green Weekly Candlesticks, rallying up as much as 8 % from its July/2023 99.580 Low. A low violating all Technical aspects, which got us into a Short Idea but not for long before changing bias (idea's live chart) TVC:DXY tried to close in Green its 12 Consecutive Candlestick Print, but failed to do so. However, during this up-rally time of Dirty Mighty TVC:DXY for the past 11 Weeks, heavy negatively correlated assets like $EUR/USD and other major FX pair got slapped on the face mercilessly, as well so did the US Major Financial Markets and other Indexes and Equities, but when comparing them with the Fiat Currencies market, their blood shed was less. Is about time for The Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) to cool down for a while and correct ? Fundamentally no, as fear and troubles looms for a US Recession being just around the corner. Technically (TA) speaking yes, it is time for a brief correction, would be totally fine for someone looking in to longing the Financial Markets or exchanging their Fiat Dollars for other Major Fiat Currencies. We can see TVC:DXY on line chart having broken the Range's Ceiling of 100-105, as well retesting it (so far). Holding it as Support or finding itself below again facing it as Resistance shall be proven on upcoming week(s)
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx