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Potential bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 103.82 1st Support: 103.44 1st Resistance: 104.57 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
1
Will the job data impair the US dollar gain?Macro theme: - The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short. - Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction. - With the US job report—the last before the FOMC meeting—approaching, storms and strikes could complicate interpreting the data, introducing further uncertainty around the dollar’s direction. Technical theme: - DXY is consolidating in a small range at the top and looks stretched. This is vulnerable to a potential mean reversion. The price is trading away from both EMAs. - If DXY extends its gain above the previous swing high at 104.60, the index may rise to 106.00 resistance. - On the contrary, if DXY closes below 104.00 support, the index may decline to retest 103.45 support. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
How does the dollar's strength endure amidst domestic turmoil? A Resilient Currency Despite a tumultuous political climate and growing social divisions, the U.S. dollar has shown remarkable strength, particularly in recent months. As measured by Bloomberg's Dollar Spot Index, the greenback has surged approximately 3.1% in October alone. This resilience is surprising, given the erosion of trust in American institutions and the increasing polarization of the country. Why is the Dollar So Strong? Several factors contribute to the dollar's enduring strength: 1. Safe-Haven Status: The U.S. dollar has long been considered a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or geopolitical turmoil, investors often flock to the dollar as a reliable store of value. The current global landscape, marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, has solidified the dollar's status as a safe haven. 2. Interest Rate Differentials: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing the dollar's value. By raising interest rates, the Fed makes it more attractive for investors to hold dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the demand for the dollar increases, leading to appreciation. 3. Global Economic Disparity: The U.S. economy, while facing its own challenges, remains relatively strong compared to many other major economies. This economic disparity can lead to capital inflows into the U.S., further boosting the dollar's value. 4. Global Currency Reserve: The U.S. dollar is widely used as a global reserve currency. Central banks around the world hold significant amounts of U.S. dollars, which helps to maintain demand for the currency. The Disconnect Between Currency and Country The dollar's strength can be seen as a paradox, given the growing political polarization and social unrest in the U.S. However, it is important to distinguish between the country's political and social climate and its economic fundamentals. While the former may impact investor sentiment in the long run, the latter has a more immediate impact on the currency. As long as the U.S. economy remains relatively stable and the Federal Reserve continues to pursue sound monetary policies, the dollar is likely to maintain its strength. However, it is essential to monitor geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and domestic political developments that could potentially impact the dollar's value. A Word of Caution While the dollar's current strength is impressive, it is important to remember that market conditions can change rapidly. A sudden shift in investor sentiment, a change in Federal Reserve policy, or a significant geopolitical event could lead to a decline in the dollar's value. It is crucial for investors to stay informed about global economic and political developments and to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk. By understanding the factors that influence the dollar's value and making informed investment decisions, individuals can navigate the complex and ever-changing global financial landscape.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
A Bullish Turn: Investors Embrace the DollarA Shift in Sentiment In a surprising turn of events, hedge funds, asset managers, and other speculators have shifted their stance on the US dollar, moving into bullish positions in the week ending October 22nd. This significant shift, totaling approximately $9.2 billion in long dollar bets, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) compiled by Bloomberg, marks a dramatic departure from the previous week's net short position. A $10.6 Billion Swing This abrupt change in sentiment represents a substantial $10.6 billion swing from the previous week, when traders were actively betting against the greenback. The reasons behind this bullish pivot are multifaceted, primarily driven by a confluence of factors, including stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the US election approaches. A Recalibration of Fed Expectations A series of positive economic reports released throughout October has forced a recalibration of previously dovish Federal Reserve expectations. The robust economic indicators have raised the possibility of a more hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed, which could potentially lead to higher interest rates. Historically, a stronger US dollar has been correlated with higher interest rates, making the greenback an attractive investment for global investors. Election-Year Uncertainty As the US presidential election draws near, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility tend to increase. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The dollar's perceived status as a reliable store of value, combined with the potential for increased market volatility, has likely contributed to the recent surge in demand for the currency. Implications for the Global Economy The shift towards a bullish dollar position has significant implications for the global economy. A stronger dollar can negatively impact emerging market economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt. Additionally, it can make US exports more expensive, potentially hindering economic growth. However, for countries with strong economic fundamentals and current account surpluses, a stronger dollar can be beneficial. A Cautious Outlook While the recent bullish trend in the dollar is notable, it is essential to maintain a cautious outlook. The global economic landscape remains uncertain, and a variety of factors, including geopolitical events, trade tensions, and central bank policies, could influence the dollar's trajectory. As such, it is crucial for investors to carefully consider the risks and rewards associated with dollar-based investments. In conclusion, the recent shift towards a bullish dollar position reflects a significant change in market sentiment. A combination of stronger-than-expected US economic data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets has driven investors to embrace the greenback. While the implications of this trend for the global economy are far-reaching, it is essential to remain vigilant and adapt to evolving market conditions.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond. Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment? A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories: • “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress • “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%. Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two: • What asset class would fare well if Trump wins? • Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view? What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris. To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work? • If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet. • If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses. Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial. My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily. Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events: (1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump • Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%) • DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%) (2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive • Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%) (3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%) (4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump • Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%) (5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive • Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%) The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th. For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT. DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile. I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded: US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors. The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true. Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280. The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375. Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows: • A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures. • A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E. I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1 Some large market gaps seen across US30 and US100, XAUUSD also gapping to the downside, trading as low as $2725/oz. DXY still remains below our area of resistance and supply, which trades at around 104.500 price. 105.000 would usually be a good technical psychological trading zone, that being said, there isn't much else on that price that would act as any real method of confluence for the moment. Lets see what happens around this 104.500 price level, we have had a couple of days trading into that zone and a red engulfing candle close on that daily timeframe back on Thursday last week. Could we expect some dumps on DXY this week?
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade_Simple_FX
EURUSD Sellas we were bearish last week and now still this week too we are bearish although we have NFP pending this week if data goes into favor we will have a rally downwards and profits will be taken we have some bearish confluences over the pair which are lined up as Confluence EUR vs Dollar is in bearish trend from Monthly to weekly to daily to H4 to H1 we are all bearish the pair is making Lower highs and Lower low formation from last week and has completed its retracment and am waiting for BOS only we will go bearish over it Geo politics is also a factor for EUR to be bearish All currencies are affectee of this Situation we will be bearish this week and let the price play if any change in price character is seen i will be mentioning that into my analysis
Short
by Wakeel_Saab
Gold Bulls are to take controlAs we had a beautiful week this week gold has shown us its value why is it called gold as well as gold is concerned currently we are expecting a Rise in price also we are experiencing a bearish shift in H1 but in M30 and M15 its not much clear that fight between both ends is on its peak now moving back to anylisis we can price is moving in an upwards channel and price has reached to its lower end price can move back to test the higher levels if it breaks below which seem pretty hard but a possibility then we will wait for the price to its daily Immediate (Physiological) support level we will wait for price to go higher bounds confluence being Bullish is --> we are bullish from Monthly to weekly to daily to H4 but on H1 its not much clear price is not showing up properly fight is on --> fibonachi confluence of current bullish impulse has retraced to 50% of price level and could go further .68% which is our daily Immediate support but over all we are bullish
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Wakeel_Saab
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 103.83 1st Support: 103.38 1st Resistance: 104.42 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
Dollar index LongYesterday everything was unexpected to some extent we will expecting gold to be bearish to its new previous all time high but the asain session rocked and Gold has gained new highs Now taking turn towards Dollar index we are expecting a Bullish move in DXY to its global resistance price can Retest its previous Resistance became Support confluence is geopolitics and 50SMA and Resistance under american elections are also the big reason so we are bullish over dollar index and other co-relations will be bearish
TVC:DXYLong
by Wakeel_Saab