The Dollar & EURUSD Are Pulling Back |Will It Last? Hi friends, the dollar index (DXY) and EURUSD are pulling back and into areas where we want to look for more trading opportunities. Since tomorrow is Friday, tomorrow's candlestick closure could be very telling about the price direction. This video shares my thoughts on the price movement on the indicie and currency pair.
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Disclaimer: This analysis is based on my eyes. Please stick to your own analysis.
Dollarindex
DXY's Recent Shifts: Insights and ObservationsD ear Esteemed TradingView Community,
I'm sharing my recent analytical insights into the movements of the Dollar Index (DXY). Please note that the following reflections are not financial advice but rather a comprehensive analysis based on my observations.
This week, DXY experienced a notable descent, and my analysis, driven by AI natural language processing, suggests a correlation with global news developments. Strikingly, the influence of news events appears to have a more significant impact on price action than technical indicators. As DXY found its way down, it eventually landed in a support zone. While this decline signals a bearish sentiment, it's crucial to recognize that the current position also places DXY in a support zone. Historical data indicates that predictions originating from support zones tend to favor upward price trends. Although some indicators still hint at a potential bearish outcome, extending downwards to the underlying support zone around $101 (as indicated by the blue rectangle), this zone might also act as a reversal point. Notably, the current support level aligns with the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 200, adding a layer of significance to its potential impact.
In this scenario, careful observation becomes paramount. One can monitor whether the price breaks below EMA 200, potentially signaling a short position with a target at the underlying support zone. Conversely, a long idea could play out if the observed support level, coinciding with EMA 200, acts as a shield, propelling DXY upward. It's essential to exercise caution when contemplating short positions from the current level, given its classification as a support zone. The risk-reward ratio may not favor such a strategy at this juncture. Adding a layer of complexity to the analysis is DXY's correlation with the stock market. The potential for DXY to follow a bearish trajectory could be heightened by a flourishing stock market. Conversely, a bounce in DXY might indicate a retracement in the context of a thriving stock market.
In conclusion, the intricacies of DXY's current position warrant careful consideration. The interplay between support zones, technical indicators, and global events introduces a degree of uncertainty. As we navigate these waters, it's crucial to remain vigilant and adaptable in our approach to market analysis.
With regard and an understanding heart,
Ely
DXY: Under the 1W MA50 indicates a long term selling opportunityThe U.S. Dollar Index closed last week under the 1W MA50 for the first time since August and that signals the bearish extension of the decline that started on the October High. Naturally, the 1W technical outlook has turned bearish (RSI = 42.067, MACD = 0.190, ADX = 46.054) but the 1D is oversold (RSI = 29.749) and calls for a rebound in order to harmonize this state near neutral numbers.
That matches very accurately the behavior of DXY after every 1W MA50 bearish breach (circles on your chart) as after the break it always consolidated with a small rebound and then resumed the sell to extend to a new Low. In May 2016 that stopped on the S1 level but in the next two occassions, it made two new Lows on the LL trendline.
Consequently our long term target is the S1 (TP1 = 99.550). Then as long as the price doesn't cross over the 1W MA50, we will resell on the bounce and target the LL trendline (TP2 = 96.450).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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EUR USD Idea Greetings, fellow traders, investors, and enthusiasts! We've been patiently awaiting a short opportunity on EUR/USD for a week, and now we've identified target levels. While we've seen success with bullish trades, we're anticipating a break and downward movement, just as we discussed a month ago regarding this controlled price.
However, the current scenario has EUR/USD and the dollar out of correlation, which isn't our favorite situation. It's the Christmas season, and markets can exhibit natural behavior during this time. Yet, it can be frustrating to stand around, watching 4-hour candles without making significant gains. Patience, as always, is the key in this game, and sometimes, scalping becomes the order of the day.
For those of you who've had successful bullish trades, congratulations! Enjoy the profits, especially as the festive season approaches. Christmas is just around the corner, and we're planning to double down on scalps as much as possible. But hey, we recognize our addiction to charts might not be for everyone. Don't be like us, indeed!
Wishing you all a successful trading season and a joyful upcoming holiday. May your charts be clear, and your profits be plentiful! Until next time, trade wisely.
Dollar Index (DXY): Important Key Levels to Watch 💵
Here is my latest structure analysis for Dollar Index.
Resistance 1: 103.86 - 104.20 area
Resistance 2: 104.40 - 104.55 area
Resistance 3: 104.87 - 105.08 area
Resistance 4: 105.90 - 106.11 area
Support 1: 102.57 - 103.08 area
Support 2: 101.40 - 102.01 area
Support 3: 100.47 - 100.57 area
Support 4: 99.55 - 99.75 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Dollar Weakness Equals EURUSD strengthHey friends, the dollar made a new low and the Euro is on the go up to the upside. Let's see if it can keep this strength.
If not and price pulls back on EURUSD a good buying price would be above 1.08525 as long as price doesn't close below it.
Let me know if you're following the dollar EURUSD.
Many blessings.
Shaquan
DXY update roadmap for trading heloo dear trader
I am waiting for the fall ...
my road map on this chart
What is institutional price action?
It's a tactic most often employed by institutional and retail traders. Generally, these traders use leverage to place large trades on the basis of small underlying price movement. The short-term nature of these trades makes other strategies, such as technical or fundamental analysis, less effective.
stop loss need for any position
goodluck... mehdi
DXY The bottom is near. Excellent opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index has been declining since the October 3rd High and is now under the MA200 (1d).
The RSI (1d) is nearly oversold and is double bottoming on the 30.00 level, while the price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the July 14th bottom.
That will be a -4.50% decline, comparable to all three major decline of 2023: -4.55%, -4.85% and -4.88%.
Trading Plan:
1. Start buying on the current market price with a maximum extension up to -4.88%.
Targets:
1. 105.500 (the 0.618 Fibonacci level), can even extend as high as 106.200 (near the 0.786 Fibonacci level like the High of May 31st).
Tips:
1. The CCI (1d) is posting a Bullish Divergence on a Rising Support, like those of March-April and late January. This indicates that a final tick downwards is possible before calling it a bottom. But a strong indication to start buying already an oversold price level.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals MarketUS Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals Market Dynamics
Major currency pairs continue their range-bound movement on Monday as investors refrain from making significant directional bets. The market sentiment is cautious due to escalating concerns, with investors eyeing key inflation data releases from both the United States (US) and the Eurozone later in the week.
Early Monday, Asian markets saw declines, influenced by the People’s Bank of China's (PBOC) lack of detailed information on stimulus measures for private firms and rising respiratory illnesses in China. The ongoing decrease in China’s Industrial Profits, coupled with uncertainty surrounding major central banks' interest rate outlooks, further contributed to the subdued market mood.
The return of US traders after the Thanksgiving holiday break is awaited, and the US S&P 500 futures, considered a risk barometer, indicate a 0.30% decline on the day.
Despite the cautious market sentiment, the US Dollar experiences selling pressure as it hovers around the 103.200 zone. Notably, there's potential for a Double Bottom formation, suggesting a strong recovery for the USD. The existence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $105.000 becomes noteworthy, serving as a potential target point in the event of a market reversal.
Our Preference
Above 102.600 look for further upside with 104.2150 & 105.000 as targets.
Looking to see if DXY re accumulatesLast week was definitely a lesson learned. This week working on my patience and really waiting for the market to show me direction, without marrying a bias.
Currently seeing DXY coming into the extreme of the trading range, understanding price can alway re accumulate at a previous are of accumulation. I want price to show me re accumulation before I start looking for price to continue higher.
If we don’t get clear re accumulation then either we sweep the low then accumulate, or just continue lower since price is coming in a bearish counter trend.
DXY is Ready to Go UP🚀🏃♂️The DXY index is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($103.78_$102.93) 🟢 near the SMA(200) and 1 00_SMA(Weekly) .
🕯If we want to look at the last three daily candles of the DXY index from the candlestick pattern, we can see the reversal patterns of Hammer and Morning Star very well.
💡Also, another sign that shows us the end of the downward trend of the DXY index is the Falling Wedge Pattern in the RSI indicator .👇
🔔I expect the DXY index to trend higher in the coming days and attack the 🔴Resistance zone($105.88_$104.630)🔴 again.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, Daily frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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$US10Y -Important Close *Weekly- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth
week of August,
after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks,
printing only green *W candlesticks.
The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y
(key level marked on dashed green line)
We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged higher as well during Yields uptrend
(indicating a weak and fearful state of other Major Financial Markets).
Seen on Weekly Timeframe, we can easily spot a triangle pattern being formed
on $US10Y.
Triangle Pattern's Apex can be stretched as far as 238Days from where it
currently is.
In case Pattern is violated to the downside,
a considerable Support-Resistance zone lays just underneath dating back
ever since 1912.
Below that would be the catching up dynamic support of 200EMA on the Weekly,
as well the support-trendline coming from Pandemic Lows.
TVC:US10Y uptrend resumption seems very likely from here,
especially after bouncing at the key level marked on dashed green line.
What is more important to be monitored is the correlation of TVC:DXY going higher
in the same time with TVC:US10Y .
That would be a nightmare scenario for an investor, and a golden opportunity
for those who are on the sidelines and waiting to be heavily invested
in diversification .
Monthly / Weekly / Daily OutlookThe following are my Conclusions on DXY:
Monthly Perspective
- DXY is Bullish
- DXY is retracing Lower to continue higher
- Stops below $89.5 are Safe
- Logical Targets upwards are $107.38, $114.778
Weekly Perspective
- DXY is Bullish
- DXY is retracing Lower to continue higher
- Stops below $99.5 are Safe
- Logical Targets upwards are $107.38, $107.993, $114.778
Daily Perspective
- DXY is Bearish
- DXY is going Lower
- Stops above $104.213 are safe
- Logical Targets downwards are $102.936, $101.742, $101.840, $99.578
Bonus: H4 Perspective
- DXY is Bearish
- DXY is going Lower
- Stops above $104.539 are safe
- Logical Targets downwards are $103.195
DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 103.300 down to 102.200This Weeks DXY bias is to expect another major move to the downside to continue its bearish trend that it has now set. To capitalise on this movement we will wait for a minor pull back up to a near unmitigated supply, (which will be the 9hr) to look for entries to get into this selling trend.
From this we will look for our usual wyckoff distribution to play out on the lower time frame and a CHOCH inside our POI to the enter our sell positions. I would love to see the asian high get swept as well because it will increase our confluence for a stronger sell bias. Overall I am temporarily bearish for the dollar and I expect price to keep dropping for the rest of this year.
Confluences for DXY (dollar) sells are as follows:
- Price is temprorarily bearish due to the perpetual BOS to the downside.
- There's still trend liquidity left to the downside that hasn't been taken.
- For price to react off next there is a demand zone below on the 4hr region.
- There is a clean supply 9hr that caused an impulsive to the downside.
- By the candle stick anatomy bearish candles are very strong holding lots of momentum.
P.S. I would ideally wait for this structure to break first before seeing the correction back up to the 9hr however, if price goes that low I see it continuing going down to reach our next demand. Which we will then anticipate a potential short term buy back up.
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DXY BEARISH OUTLOOKThe US dollar index (DXY) experienced a notable decline, hitting a two-month low at 103.6, following its sharpest weekly drop since July. This downward trajectory was fueled by weaker-than-expected inflation data, solidifying expectations that the Federal Reserve might refrain from raising interest rates, leading market sentiment to anticipate potential rate cuts. Despite dovish signals from Fed officials indicating a softer dollar, market pricing has yet to fully incorporate the possibility of the Fed reactivating tightening policies when necessary. The technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for the dollar, with the breach of key support levels potentially targeting the 102.5 - 103 support zone.
Amidst these developments, the EUR/USD pair rose amid speculations of earlier Fed rate cuts and lower inflation in the Eurozone. Facing resistance at 1.093, it could either advance to 1.1 or decline to $1.083. USD/JPY retreated from pressure at 151, experiencing a sharp decline due to weak US data, though it remains within a rising channel. Gold prices displayed resilience around $1,930 and aim for $1,980; surpassing this level is crucial for further upward movement. While market anticipation of limited data supporting dollar demand persists, the OPEC's decision to cut oil supply amid declining oil prices may prompt short-term dollar purchases. Overall, the market outlook indicates a bearish trend for the US dollar, with pivotal resistance and support levels ahead for major currency pairs, and potential implications from the upcoming Fed meeting minutes.
On a technical note, both RSI and MACD are showing sell signals, further confirming the bearish sentiment for the instrument. If this trend continues, the price might reach levels of 101.68. As a pivot point might be considered 103.775, from where the price might reach resistance levels of 103.89
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DXY Elliot WaveUpon examining the Elliott Wave pattern for the DXY in a broader timeframe, it seems that the current phase aligns with the fourth wave. This phase could be characterized either as a zigzag or a WXY correction. Based on this interpretation, it's plausible to anticipate an initial upward trend leading towards the fifth wave, preceding a notable pullback in the index.