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DXY Reversal Anticipation - Short BiasDXY reversal outlook. I believe DXY is still going to go lower. Possibly another thrust up before the reversal. A new month is about to start so I will be anticipating the monthly Power of 3. The bias for lower DXY is COT reports of Intermarket assets and the lowest point of DXY falling short of the Weekly FVG. This rally could just be inducing liquidity. There is trendline buyside liquidity way up, but I would be quite surprised if it gained that much strength. If it did, probably a Black Swan liquidity sweep. The first reversal point could deeper into the Daily FVG that it tapped into, into an old NDOG. The second reversal point could be at a Weekly Mitigation Block with a lower timeframe Order Block, at or near the 70.5% OTE level. The third reversal point could be at the highest Daily FVG after taking out an intermediate high. This is all anticipation. Always wait for confirmation, and always be ok with not being right in your analysis. As ICT says, you can be right in your analysis and still be unprofitable, and be wrong in your analysis and still be profitable. We are here to make money.
TVC:DXYShort
by Road_2_Funded
6
$DXY -Middle Range Warzone (105vs100)- TVC:DXY seems to be wanting a break-out from Resistance Trendline coming from 114 Highs, despite failing to do so. A Resistance Trendline that has pushed the price lower each time price has approached it. Wether that break-out and resumption is bound to happen or not in the short term, it is yet to be seen. Currently, TVC:DXY is in the midst of a Middle Range War-Zone, struggling for direction. For now, Price-Action suggest a Lower High being printed at 104.5 , a Lower High from 114 Downtrend. By Breaking Structure(BoS) of the most recent Lower High (LH) 104.5 would validate the Trendline break-out and suggest furthermore uptrend continuation for TVC:DXY , headed for the the Range's Ceiling at 105.8 and testing the broken macro structure Support Trendline Move towards 105.8 range's ceiling would be quite bearish for overall Financial Market's condition. While a move to the range's bottom at 100 level would be quite promising for other Market Sectors to continue performing well. Very interesting week ahead for The Markets, especially TVC:DXY , which dictates Financial Markets Swings *** TRADE SAFE NOTE that this is not Financial Advice . Please do your own Research before partaking on any Trading Activities based solely on this Idea.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
The dollar looks bullishI really don't think the dollar is going lower here. We've largely been moving sideway for the past 6 months consolidating. You'll see on the chart that price action in January fell below key support. Then after that we rallied and tested the 200 DMA 3 times and have also retested support 3 times and haven't broken through. Now that price action is well above support, I think the next big move is up through the 200DMA. The only way the dollar is going lower is if it breaks that key support. And I think we need to see a higher dollar before that support is broken. I bought a lot of $30 UUP calls for September to express this view.
AMEX:UUPLong
by benjihyam
BluetonaFX - DXY US Dollar Fragile After FOMCHi Traders! The US dollar is showing signs of fragility after the expected 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC press conference today due to the ongoing high inflation issues in the US economy. This was reflected in the price action on the DXY 1D chart. The market hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.590 to continue the bearish impulsive wave, and the US dollar index might continue down and go back under the 100 level to target the support level at 99.578. There is further data out of the US tomorrow, and if we get further bad news from the US tomorrow, we might possibly get the break below 100. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. We appreciate your support. BluetonaFX
TVC:DXY
by BluetonaFX
dxy after federal Fund ratehi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ... One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of the year. July FOMC meeting The FOMC meets on 25-26 July and a 25-basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate is inevitable. The ‘skip’ from the last meeting foreshadowed a hike in July – and potentially another in September. Markets unanimously expect a July hike and Federal Reserve officials haven’t pushed back. Since the June FOMC meeting, and in view of favourable inflation prints and softer employment data, markets no longer anticipate a September hike. While that may prove right, they might be getting ahead of themselves. One month’s data doesn’t make a trend. Further, core inflation remains too high for the Fed and labour markets are still quite resilient. Expectations of a US recession or hard landing continue to fade – ‘soft landing’ is the buzzword of the day. More data will come in after the July FOMC meeting and data dependence will shape the September decision. Perhaps the Jackson Hole symposium in August will shed some light on Fed thinking. The key challenge for the July meeting will be communications. Regardless of the September outlook, the Fed has won its months-long struggle, convincing markets that, at least for now, the FOMC is on hold for the rest of 2023. The July meeting should be wary of any statements that might imperil this victory. Foreign exchange outlook Predicting exchange rates is a fool’s errand. With that disclaimer, what is the dollar’s outlook for the remainder of the year? The dollar is off its peak from last autumn, but it remains strong (Figure 1). The dollar’s upside may be limited as the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Improving inflation may inject a downward bias to note and bond yields. However, the downside may also be limited given anticipation that the FFR, after peaking, will be on hold for the rest of 2023 and services price will be sticky. Figure 1. Dollar remains strong despite falling from peak Source: Federal Reserve; through June 2023 A soft landing scenario would comport with muted dollar sentiment and modest volatility, unlike a sharp risk-off or risk-on environment. Decent dollar selling could emerge when markets perceive with certainty the Fed will start embarking on rate cuts, but that isn’t priced in at this juncture until early next year. The base case faces two-sided risks. If US inflation comes down more sharply than anticipated, major financial instability emerges or the economy sharply stagnates, the Fed could begin cutting rates earlier than expected, yields could fall and the dollar tumble. On the upside, more inflation persistence or greater than expected vigour in the US economy could sustain demand, as could a heightening in geopolitical risks. Of course, the dollar will also be impacted by what is happening abroad. Markets are discounting two more European Central Bank hikes this year – though there is increased debate about a September hike. The euro area economy has already stagnated and the outlook is for continued weakness. Absent further inflationary impulse, this weakness will curb the ECB’s hiking appetite and limit euro appreciation. The Japanese yen’s course will be sensitive to finance ministry concerns about yen weakness and yield curve control policy expectations. Further yen weakness will be limited by market concerns over official jawboning or intervention. Meanwhile, markets expected a quick abandonment of YCC after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down earlier this year, but his successor Kazuo Ueda has taken a cautious approach. However, YCC adjustment seems more a question of when than if. Altering YCC could significantly boost the yen. There may be modest renminbi upside against the dollar. It’s a managed currency, and opaquely so. It has depreciated against the dollar by some 4% this year, mainly reflecting divergent monetary policy stances in the US and China. Capital inflow to China has sharply ebbed over the last year. The authorities are resisting depreciation, though not through formal People’s Bank of China intervention, and increasingly signalling stronger aversion to renminbi weakness. . The Chinese growth surge expected after reopening has fallen short of expectations given strong headwinds. The PBoC has only run slightly more accommodative policies and the fiscal authorities have so far eschewed significant stimulus given the economy’s high indebtedness. The renminbi will remain soft overall, unless authorities embark unexpectedly on stepped up fiscal stimulus – a topic increasingly debated. With the UK facing continued inflation challenges, the Bank of England may need to stick with relatively high rates, undergirding sterling. One quarter of the dollar’s trade-weighted basket consists of the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Mexico moved preemptively to raise interest rates ahead of the Fed, hiking by nearly six percentage points since early 2022, and Banco de México is holding rates high, given elevated inflation. The peso took off this year, rising by 16%. Further upside is limited. The Canadian dollar through ups and downs has been fairly flat this year. The picture facing emerging market currencies varies. But good performers that raised policy rates preemptively relative to the Fed, such as Brazil, have experienced good capital inflows this year. Putting it all together, the dollar may trade narrowly with a softening bias for the rest of 2023. Next year may prove more interesting. Mark Sobel is US Chair of OMFIF. source passage : Federal Reserve
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb