Dollar Bullish Momentum Continues Despite Global Challenges
The global economy is facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, slowing growth, and geopolitical tensions. These challenges have led some economists to warn of a potential stagflation environment, characterized by high inflation and low economic growth. Overall, the dollar had a few battles with other intermarket factors that tried to halt its bullish momentum, which has been ongoing for months.
The euro had many indications last week that it plans to strengthen its currency by increasing interest rates in the near future. Germany, which is the eurozone's largest economy, supported this with its ZEW economic sentiment, which came back better than expected, causing short-term weakness during the New York session. Fuel was then thrown on the fire, making the dollar aggressively bullish with the statements made during the ECB press conference. In addition, the unemployment claims and retail sales being better than expected fueled the dollar's ongoing bullish momentum.
With the upcoming Fed rate, where do you think is the next destination for the dollar?
Dollarindex
DXY AnalysisBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Dollar Index (DXY): More Growth is Expected 💵
Dollar Index broke and closed above a key daily resistance.
Such a violation will most likely trigger a further growth, because the market is trading in a bullish trend.
I believe that the market will reach 105.3 level soon.
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Bullish Dollar Within a Trading Range. TVC:DXY is currently trading in a consolidation pattern and is located in the premium end of the trading range between 104.447 and 103.013.
The August 30 candle swept the short term daily sellside liquidity at 103.013 into the Weekly BISI fair value gap which was nearly totally rebalanced. Upon leaving the Weekly FVG range, it was repriced to the premium end of the range, forming a daily BISI Fair Value Gap.
Sept 4th trading range appears to still be forming a Daily BISI fair value gap in which I expect price to protract into early in the week before either staying in a consolidated range or move higher toward daily and weekly buyside liquidity pools toward the daily Volume Imbalance.
Price points of interest:
D.Volume Imbalance: 105.278 & 105.125
Wk.Buyside Liquidity: 104.700
D.Buyside Liquidity: 104.447
D BISI Fair Value Gap: 104.025 high & 103.740 low
D. BISI Fair Value Gap: 102.771 high & 102.654 low.
Short Bull Run for EUR\USD?EUR\USD has a Daily Volume Inefficiency right below this weeks closing price. I expect that, with the current momentum and the draw that this particular inefficiency is having on price for it to tap into this area and quickly spring up.
This area of Volume Inefficiency is a visible Gap on the Daily chart Friday March 17-March 23rd this is also a Weekly opening gap that we have tested many times but have not managed to close.
Here is the crux, if Monday or Tuesday you close the Gap by laying a solid candle across this Gap then I would expect EUR\USD to quickly find its target at 1.063.
But with Dollar retracing, I am expecting the inverse of EUR\USD meaning that it will make a step ladder run drawn by 1.083.
USD Ready To Complete a "Bullish Puzzle" After US CPI ReportToday holds significant importance as we await the release of US inflation data. Projections indicate a rate of 3.6%, surpassing the previous reading of 3.2%. This surge in expectations has propelled the US dollar's recent strength, driven by speculations that the Federal Reserve (FED) may consider implementing further interest rate hikes in the upcoming meetings. Additionally, escalating energy prices underscore the challenge of swiftly returning inflation to the 2% target. Consequently, the USD remains in an upward trajectory for the time being. Nevertheless, even if the inflation data hovers around or slightly exceeds the 3.6% mark, there's the possibility of a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect. It's worth noting that the DXY has already seen a 6% rise from its summer lows, suggesting that a robust inflation report might already be factored into current prices.
Taking an Elliott wave perspective into account, the recent price action appears corrective, with wave four unfolding within the broader uptrend. This implies that the market might be gearing up for one final upward surge in the coming days, potentially reaching resistance levels around 105.50-106. This zone could serve as the culmination point for higher-degree patterns. Therefore, I'll be on the lookout for signs of a reversal after this anticipated new high.
DXY (DOLLAR INDEX) ____ WAITING FOR BEARISH SIGNALHello Traders,
The dollar has been rallying for days and weeks and we are slowly approaching a potential turning point. Price has already cleared two weekly buy-side liquidity (previous high) on its way up and is approaching the third.
Although I am speculating and willing to go short, the market structure doesn't confirm to me bearish sentiment.
I have annotated on the chart any of the 2 price structures that will interest me to go short. Until such a pattern is printed on the chart, I still believe that the dollar will continue to rally.
Once any of these patterns appear, I will review the seven USD pairs to trade accordingly.
Follow for more updates like this.
Cheers,
Jabari
Dollar Under Pressure as Japan and China Defend Their CurrencyIntroduction:
In recent times, the US dollar has faced increasing challenges as both Japan and China take measures to defend their respective currencies. This shift in global dynamics has raised concerns among traders and investors who heavily rely on the US dollar as their primary asset. However, this situation also presents an opportunity for us to reassess our investment strategies and consider diversifying our portfolios. In this article, we delve into the current state of the US dollar, the actions taken by Japan and China, and why it's time to consider allocating less to the US dollar.
The US Dollar's Vulnerability:
For decades, the US dollar has held its position as the world's primary reserve currency. However, recent economic developments have put pressure on its supremacy. Japan and China, two of the largest economies globally, have taken proactive steps to defend their currencies, challenging the US dollar's dominance. Japan's commitment to maintaining a weaker yen and China's efforts to stabilize the renminbi have created a more balanced global currency landscape.
The Rise of Japan and China:
Both Japan and China have demonstrated their determination to protect their currencies. Japan's monetary policies, such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing, have contributed to a weaker yen, boosting its export competitiveness. China, on the other hand, has implemented measures to stabilize the renminbi, preventing excessive depreciation and promoting stability in international trade.
The Benefits of Diversification:
While the US dollar remains a significant player in the global economy, recent events highlight the importance of diversifying our investment portfolios. Allocating less to the US dollar and exploring alternative currencies can provide numerous benefits, including:
1. Reduced Risk: Diversification allows us to spread risk across different currencies and economies, mitigating the impact of any potential downturn in the US dollar.
2. Increased Opportunities: By diversifying, we gain exposure to emerging markets and currencies that may offer higher growth potential, providing us with new investment opportunities.
3. Enhanced Resilience: A diversified portfolio is more resilient in the face of currency fluctuations, economic uncertainties, or geopolitical events, ensuring our investments remain stable over the long term.
4. Improved Returns: Diversification helps us capture the potential gains from different currencies, reducing the reliance on a single currency's performance.
Call-to-Action: Embrace Diversification Today!
As traders, we have the power to adapt to changing market conditions and seize opportunities when they arise. The current scenario, with Japan and China defending their currencies, presents an ideal moment to reassess our investment strategies and allocate less to the US dollar.
Consider exploring alternative currencies such as the yen or renminbi, which offer potential benefits and diversification advantages. Additionally, explore other investment avenues like emerging markets or commodities, which can further enhance the resilience and growth potential of your portfolio.
In conclusion, let us embrace this shift in global dynamics as an opportunity to diversify our portfolios, reducing our reliance on the US dollar. By embracing diversification, we position ourselves for greater resilience, increased opportunities, and improved returns. Now is the time to act and adapt our investment strategies to navigate the evolving global currency landscape successfully.
DXY - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)We have more clues on the Weekly timeframe.
Most recently, price broke out of a descending trendline and immediately rebalanced into a small Weekly Bisi (annotated by red arrow), which is usually indicative of rapid continuations to follow.
As a prediction, I see price digging into the Monthly Sibi and the nested Weekly Breaker Block and possibly Weekly Orderblock before a potential HTF reversal. The highlighted Weekly iFVG/Bisi would likely be used as support once price gets into that range.
Based on the current price action, bias, and high-impact news drivers coming out this week such as CPI, PPI, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims), we could see a potential low of the week on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday.
Will the #Dollar Index Rally Continue?Monday, September 10, 2023
In the weekly chart of the US #Dollar Index, the market structure appears #bullish. Recently, the market found support around the 104 level, and the Dollar #Index has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level as part of a corrective move.
In this week's trading, if the current #uptrend continues, and the 38.2% resistance level at 105.45 is #broken, the market may find a clear path towards the 50% Fibonacci #retracement at the 107 level.
However, if the #resistance zone at 105.45 holds its ground, the #upward #momentum in the market may be limited, and the Dollar Index could return to the 104 #support level, marking a 23.6% #Fibonacci #retracement #correction.
So based on this analysis I suggests a bullish outlook for the Dollar Index.
DXY - Monthly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)The Dollar Index has displaced to the upside on the Monthly timeframe. Prior, it dipped into a Monthly Sibi for multiple months before one final stab and bounce.
Current targets are the NMOG and digging into the Monthly Sibi. As a result we should see lower prices XXXUSD pairs in the coming. Seasonally, mid-October sees an incline on the DXY.
Dollar Index ($DXY): "The next Step"At the beginning of the year I already showed my idea about the upside potential of the US dollar (see chart below), and today I can only confirm what I said earlier. If from a technical point of view, my idea continues to be bearish on stocks markets, these considerations of mine could also have a logical sense and the scenario shown on chart could really happen.
In my previous analysis (February 2023) I showed the potential dollar rally from the area around $101, hence the Price Action showed something like a "Double Bottom" Pattern on daily and intraday chart:
(Click & Play on Chart below)
If we look at the S&P500 index over the long term, from a technical point of view, it may have completed a first bull cycle that started way back in 1872:
(Click & Play on Chart below)
At the same time, this potential "Perfect Storm" should also affect the real estate sector in the mid-term, with a contraction in prices (U.S. Case Shiller Home Price):
(Click & Play on Chart below)
...what's your opinion about this analysis?
Trade with care!
Like if my analysis is useful.
Cheers!
DXY AnalysisBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Dollar Index (DXY): Important Key Levels & Trading Plan 💵
Dollar Index closed this week approaching a key daily resistance.
Because bulls are currently dominating the market,
we may anticipate the breakout attempt of the underlined Resistance 1.
If the market breaks and closes above 105.15,
a further bullish continuation will be expected.
Next resistance will be 105.65
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BluetonaFX - DXY 3 Month Resistance BrokenHi Traders!
DXY has finally broken its 3-month resistance at 104.240 and looks like it may possibly complete the reversal as it is heading for the 6-month resistance level.
104.240 was the level that needed to be broken to continue the bullish momentum; 104.240 is now support, and the price action is looking very strong with higher lows and higher highs. The market has just completed the bullish three-drive pattern, which further supports our bullish bias on DXY.
The next target is likely to be the psychological 150 level, and then we have the six-month resistance level at 145.488.
Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps.
Thank you for your support.
BluetonaFX