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Creation of the Top wick / Weekly Candle / End of WeekThere are only two things that can happen on Friday's Daily Candle 1) Price may continue to create a larger weekly candle body or 2) the weekly candle will form a larger wick and retrace This week we are observing the latter Price is pulling away from the High prices created during yesterday's New York Session If the Daily candle closes beneath 1.0762 then we have returned back into the range and will be eyeing out potential short setups to begin next week. For Buys I would've preferred that we would have held 1.07615 Daily S/R Zone as we can see it played a key role in pivoting on 6/2, 5/19, and 3/27 Now we continue the range as far as Im concerned. We may pullback to the highs ( 1.0774 and 1.0786) early next week ( Monday/Tuesday ) then dive back to support at 1.069 Daily Support.
by ShrewdCatfx
DXY formed a MACD Bearish Cross and eyes April's lowThe US Dollar Index / DXY is pulling back after the rejection on the Falling Resistance. The completion of a 1day MACD Bearish Cross yesterday is enhancing the rejection with a stronger sell signal as on March 10th. Sell and target Support A at 101.000. If however a 1day candle closes over the Falling Resistance, buy on the short term and target the 1day MA200 at 105.000. New sells can be added there. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DXYShort
by TheCryptagon
5
$DXY -Debt Ceiling Scenarios *2W All Eyez on TVC:DXY ! The Fate of other Financial Markets is to be decided on X Date of Debt Ceiling Important Candlesticks prints on *2W and *W Dollar Index seems to been having stuck between the range of 100.8 - 105.9 so far speaking of 2023's Price Action However, with the incoming decision of Debt Ceiling this range can very well be violated on it's borders ; wether to the downside or upside that has yet to be seen : - Bearish case'C' wave on ABC Correction) - Bullish Case Impulsive Wave1 from 1-2-3-4-5 Elliot Waves) Moreover, With the breakout of Red Trendine Resistance, wave one is about to come in to fruiton while yet needing to clear the last Lower High of the downtrend to create a Change of Character of the Donwtrend. Breaking above last LH and holding support (Wave B) also confulences with the Golden Zone of Fibb taken from 114.7 High to Lows of 100.8 (Wave A) TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your Financial Advisor before partaking any trading related activities based soly on this idea.
TVC:DXY
by Mr_J__fx
$DXY - Close up 1HR Downtrend-Surveying TVC:DXY on 1 Hourly (tf) and it's series of Higher Lows. Breaking the Structure of recent previous x2Top and Resistance Trendline would nullify the 1H* Downtrend (Rounding Top) in terms of Price Action, with TVC:DXY heading Higher. A-B-C correction would Break Structure of Uptrend on more broader picture (higher tf) TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please consult your own Financial Advisor and do your own Research before partaking on any Trading Activity based upon this Idea
TVC:DXYShort
by Mr_J__fx
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG US Dollar: US Economy Set to Deteriorate According to the bank; “While the impact is modest, the fiscal restraint will still be impacting at a time when substantial monetary tightening will also be feeding through to the real economy. It will strengthen expectations of weak recessionary economic conditions emerging later in the year.” The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish underlying stance. Although there is an important element of uncertainty over the near-term policy decisions and whether rates will be hiked again, it has pushed back strongly against the notion that rates will be cut this year. MUFG still expects that the Fed will shift its stance as the economy deteriorates. It notes; “We still expect much clearer evidence of slowdown to emerge in H2 that sees the market re-price monetary easing by year-end. This will likely start to emerge in Q3 fuelling a more pronounced period of US dollar selling.” A significant element in recent dollar gains has been renewed doubts surrounding the Chinese and global growth outlooks. MUFG expects these concerns will ease; “We also see scope for global growth fears to ebb given our view that China economic activity is set to pick up in the second half of the year.” The bank notes that there has been a deal to raise the debt ceiling with the Administration pledging to restrict government spending. MUFG is still concerned over the US debt profile with the US eventually needing to tighten policy which will undermine growth. Overall, it adds; “The US dollar cyclically and structurally looks like it has peaked with the high from September 2022 the high of one of the largest and longest US dollar bull runs in the floating exchange rate era.”
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISEuro: End of Negative Rates Will Support the EUR Exchange Rates As far as the ECB is concerned, MUFG expects that the ECB will increases interest rates at least two further times to combat inflation. The bank considers that the underlying ECB shift away from negative interest rates and the selling of bonds will have an important impact on the currency. According to MUFG; “The removal of negative rates we believe is somewhat under-appreciated by the markets and at these lower levels in EUR/USD we suspect strong support will emerge. It would take a notable shift in relative macro expectations for EUR/USD to break further lower towards parity.” Although the near-term EUR/USD forecasts have been revised lower, the bank still expects medium-term gains, especially as the Euro-Zone growth outlook will improve again.
Long
by thunderpips
NQM2023 SELL -first full we are in the deep premium, and in the opening of the month we see a juda swing to the upside to take the previous month's high wish is buyside liquidity (14569.50), and we seen a big reaction after taking it and go back to the opening price of this month (14288.00). -secondly, (ipda concept) if we take the last 20 days, we will see a sellside ( 13570.00) we will take it as a target -Third, if we do the standard deviation of the juda swing we will get the tp's I've noted in the chart.
CME_MINI:NQM2023Short
by NizarBenzin
Dollar Index ($DXY): Technical Analysis$DollarIndex could trigger a 3 or 5 wave swing on daily chart, and if this happens, the first Target should be around 106/107 area. That said, the trend remains bullish and the index should be bought on any correction. The technical structure on intraday chart is also very interesting, and it might be useful to develop it in our updates below as well. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! 🚀 Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
TVC:DXYLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
When the Dollar Breaks This Supply Zone, It Will Bring Pain!With the stock market already trading near the 2031 fair value target of $434.98, it's a wonder how far out investors are willing to bet on S&P 500 earnings. Apple and Meta found some resistance near their average analyst targets, and now we have to figure out what comes next. For me I see t least a 50% retracement for the S&P 500, which sits around $412 per share. A strong dollar and other potential catalysts from the economic landscape could also lead to SPY falling lower. I have a fair value range between $370 and $400. Take a listen to the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Amazon and Spotify for more information on trading and investing.
TVC:DXYLong
by D1Finance
DXY and the Dollar TrapIn global finance, everything is relative. For now, there is no good answer to the perennial question: If not for the US dollar, then what? That is why, despite all its flaws, the dollar remains the ultimate haven currency. And the US Dollar Index (“DXY”) measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies of USA’s major trading partners. The DXY measures USD performance against currency majors. Euro, Japanese Yen, and the British Pound represent more than 80% of aggregate weight. Intriguingly, the absence of emerging majors such as the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the Australian Dollar (AUD), stands out. The DXY will likely be modified in the future to reflect shifting global dynamics. History of the DXY The DXY was first created in 1973 after the establishment of the Bretton Woods agreement which abandoned the gold standard. The index has since been modified just once when the Euro was established as the official currency of the EU. The DXY commenced with a value of 100 in 1973. The Index above 100 signals that USD is stronger than the basket compared to 1973 values. Meanwhile an index below 100 points to a weak dollar. The current DXY value of 104 indicates that the USD is 4% above the value of the basket relative to its value in 1973. During periods of major global financial upheavals, the DXY tends to drift away from 100. In the 1980s as the Fed hiked rates aggressively, the dollar’s value soared. Eventually, the dollar was intentionally weakened in an historical agreement known as the Plaza Accord. Why would the US weaken its own currency? In short, a strong currency is not always a good thing. A strong dollar made US goods less viable in global markets and led to a sharp increase in the US trade deficit. As such, weakening the dollar was in the best interests of not just US’s trading partners but also the US. Another period of upheaval for the DXY was the 2008 global financial crisis. The USD was in crisis when Lehman Brothers collapsed amid the US housing crisis. The confidence in the dollar was shaken. Comparatively, other countries were less severely affected. This pushed the DXY to its lowest level of 71. Excluding these exceptional periods of time, the DXY trades around its base value. Movements in DXY are at times drive by policy changes in the US or its partner countries such as Japan, EU, UK, Canada, Switzerland, and Sweden. The real elephant in the room is the Fed policy. Fed decisions have an outsized effect on the DXY. The DXY is not very volatile. Its 30-day annualized rolling volatility ranges between 5 and 10. However, major economic events can lead to a rise in volatility. Volatility spikes during periods of global crises or major events in the US (Fed Hikes) or EU (EU Debt Crisis) with both currencies having major weightage in the index. DXY CORRELATION WITH OTHER ASSET CLASSES Fed Funds Rate Although not tightly correlated, Fed Funds rate has a major impact on the DXY. Higher rates make the dollar more attractive which leads to it strengthening. However, as other major central banks usually move in tandem with the Fed, rates in the partner countries also rise dampening the buoyancy in DXY. Fed policy action has a major impact on the DXY at the beginning of shifts in policy. However, this effect soon fades as markets price in terminal rates according to expectations. Fed & ECB Policy Divergence The divergence of policy between ECB and Fed has a major impact on the DXY. As policies start to diverge (correlation between rates starts to decline), DXY experiences large directional moves. 2Y Treasury Yields As treasury yields are derived from Fed Funds rate, the correlation between DXY and 2Y constant maturity treasury notes is similar. In general, both are positively correlated. The correlation breaks during periods where rates grind lower, but the USD continues to rise. Case in point is the experience of 2020. When the US Fed drove rates to zero, the US dollar soared as the only credible haven. This is the classic dollar trap. Furthermore, DXY and treasury yield correlation can break due to effects of economic policy action. For instance, in 2018, DXY remained muted despite rising treasury yields as markets were confident of the terminal rate and the Fed not hiking rates very aggressively. FOMC MEETINGS AND THE DOLLAR INDEX FOMC meetings decide the fate of interest rates. Typically, decisions move in tandem with expectations. But when FOMC decisions diverge from consensus, impact on the DXY can be large. For instance, in its May 2023 meeting, markets anticipated the Fed to pause its aggressive hiking campaign against a backdrop of regional banking crisis. However, Fed mercilessly cranked up another 25bps driving DXY higher. WHAT’S UP AT THE NEXT FOMC MEETING? CME FedWatch tool highlights the probability of changes in FOMC rate as measured by 30-day Fed Fund futures pricing data. For the next FOMC meeting on the 14th of June, CME FedWatch tool points to an 80% probability of no hike. For the meeting on 26th July, markets are pricing a 55% probability of a 25bps hike. This would take rates to 5.25%-5.5% which is expected to be the terminal rate. In case Fed decides to hike in the June meeting, it could lead to a sharper upward move in the DXY. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT The Commitment of Traders report shows weekly changes in open interest by investor category. Institutional investors expect DXY to move higher as both managed money and small speculators have increased their net long positioning over the last three weeks. TRADE SETUP Market expectations have moved wildly from rate hike to no hike multiple times over the past two weeks. Cooling inflation in April, signs of a weakening job market, anemic services data, credit tightening are shaping market consensus for a rate pause in June. However, if May inflation data, which is due a day before the FOMC meeting paints a different picture or the job market continues to remain strong, the Fed may throw in another rate hike. Anticipating Fed move is difficult. Investors deploying a long straddle can potentially lock in gains from large moves in DXY if FOMC moves against consensus. A long straddle is a delta-neutral options strategy that can be used to benefit from rising volatility in options. It involves simultaneously going long call and long put at the same delta. Delta-neutral makes the structure directionally agnostic to upside or downside moves. Loss on one leg will be offset by gains from the other leg when the underlying moves sharply. Straddles are powerful in that they are long Vega which makes it gain not only from a directional move but also from volatility expansion. With uncertainty looming around Fed outcomes, volatility will likely spike heading into the meeting. A delta neutral strategy would be difficult to run directly on DXY futures due to slim liquidity for these options on ICE. As such, investors could consider long straddles in CME Euro FX options, CME Japanese Yen options, and CME GBP options to obtain similar exposure. These three majors represent 83% of the DXY and largely drive major moves in the DXY. The above charts show the payoff for the straddle on each of these individual options. ATM strikes can provide higher profit potential with higher risk potential. However, ~25 delta options have cheaper premium due to which the loss is limited at a lower level, consequently, 25 delta straddle would also require a larger price movement before the position is in the money. Moreover, the profit potential on these would also be lower due to wider strike levels. A notable exception to these is the Japanese Yen put options which have noticeably lower IVs and are thus cheaper. Each of these pairs would have to move ~1.5% over the next two weeks for the position to make money. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
TVC:DXY
by mintdotfinance
1
DXY Analysis - 6 JuneSave time. Technical Analysis in just a few words. Daily Timeframe. DXY is currently found in a correction. Long term direction: Short If price goes under the marked price level, there is a high chance for the Wave 5 to continue to form on the downside. That's it. Have a nice day! DISCLAIMER: The ideas shared in this context are strictly for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial or legal advice. Each individual bears full responsibility for their own trades and decisions.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by YExplore
Surrender Bears! Accumulation above 26,747 ? 📽️Timeframes are closing above Weekly Zone 26,770. Unless during the next 22 hours we see a 1.22% dump below our weekly level , I'm Looking up from here. Price has returned into our range from the second half of May between Daily Zone 27,400$ and 26,747$ Weekly Zone. Price printed a solid Bull candle rejecting our Weekly level which was anticipated. Price consolidated and dropped slightly during yesterday's daily candle. We haven't started dumping and price has been consolidating along the Highs of our Daily range from the Second half of Month May. The Highs during the Second half of May being 27,400$. As the New week begins I am looking for an Increase in Bitcoin as the debt ceiling controversy ends and the Summer begins. 29,246 Weekly Level is our target for the 1st half of June. Safe Trading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ShrewdCatfx
GOLD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAmid the looming US debt deadline, recent developments have triggered a turn towards gold as an instrument of risk hedge. Investors are closely examining the potential impact of a US debt ceiling agreement and its implications for federal spending. "Fitch moved the US sovereign rating on a watch negative radar as debt deadline looms. Investors are also assessing the possible impact of a US debt ceiling deal and how it could cut federal spending" says Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research at MUFG. Gold is being eyed as a promising refuge in the light of certain economic conditions. Khoman adds, "This had pushed investors towards gold, as a hedge against risk." The complexity of the current financial environment has particularly strengthened gold's attractiveness. Gold Outperforming in a Challenging Economic Environment While the Federal Reserve persists in tightening despite the rise in producer prices, money supply, and bank deposits, gold has emerged as a shining performer. Khoman mentions, "The unprecedented combination of the Fed still tightening in H1 2023 despite elevated producer prices, money supply and bank deposits, favour gold." The precious metal has outdone other constituents of the Bloomberg Commodity index on an annualised basis. According to the analyst, gold's beneficial position is likely to persist as the world navigates beyond the Federal Reserve's hawkishness. "Gold’s value proposition remains constructive as we are moving past Fed hawkishness since the US is seemingly slowing without derailing growth elsewhere," says Khoman. This economic slowdown could spur increased investment demand for gold, which has been relatively dormant in recent years. Emerging Market Central Banks Keep the Demand for Gold High Central banks in emerging markets (EM) are actively acquiring gold, a trend that has kept the demand for the precious metal robust. This purchasing pace is driven by geopolitical risks and de-dollarisation trends. "EM central banks continue to purchase gold at pace – a trend that we expect to continue to dominate gold demand on the back of elevated geopolitical risks and de-dollarisation trends," Khoman explains. Amid these forces, the trajectory for gold prices is set to rise, albeit at a potentially slower pace than seen previously. The analyst further states, "Overall, this suggests gold is poised to move higher, although it may be more of a slow grind than continued spike." MUFG's gold price models project an average of USD1,980 per ounce this year, with a tendency for the price to exceed this prediction. Khoman suggests, "Our gold price models signal an average of USD1,980/oz this year, with risks skewed to the upside." The gold analyst concludes that in a climate of increasing anxiety and looming recession risks, the potential downside for gold under a soft landing or further hawkish moves from the Fed is significantly less than the upside in the event of a growth shock pushing the US economy into recession. However, it might be challenging for gold to cross the USD2,100 per ounce threshold without the Fed resorting to rate cuts in response to a recession that necessitates pivoting towards growth support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by thunderpips