DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone,
In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2.
Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already.
The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target.
The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A.
Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
Dollarindex
Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Trend Continues
Dollar Index violated a support line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
Taking into consideration that the market is trading in a long term bearish trend,
chances are high that a bearish rally will continue.
Next support - 100.00
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Dollar index sellAs dollar index was bearish all the week and in my view it will remain bearish for the next week as Dxy is moving in a falling wedge in which it has completed its 4 waves over H4 to H1 TF and going to complete its last wave 🌊 E if this pattern is not a failed pattern then DXY will remian Bearish all the next week also we our team has observed that Dollar is Bearish on All timeframes from Monthly to weekly to Daily to H4 to H1 so we will be bearish for the next week as Geopolitics is concerned we can predict a downward move in dollar index
Hope for the good 👍😊
GBPUSD Approaches Major Zone: Monitoring Dollar for Next MoveAt the moment, we are observing the GBPUSD pair with no clear bias, simply monitoring the price action as it approaches a key zone. From a monthly perspective, we can see that the price has been in a bullish trend for several consecutive months. However, it is now reaching an important level where a potential pullback could occur.
The plan is to start monitoring the 4-hour and daily charts, looking for a clear signal that confirms the price's intention to retrace from this area. We are not rushing to take a directional stance until the market provides a more decisive signal.
One key factor to watch is the current behavior of the dollar . It is sitting at a strong support zone, which could be affected by upcoming economic data. If this support breaks, we could see strength in GBPUSD , driven by the dollar's weakness.
It is crucial to keep an eye on the signals coming from the dollar and the forthcoming economic data, as these could trigger significant volatility and help define the next move in GBPUSD. Given the current state of the dollar, the likelihood of a correction or move in GBPUSD is high, but we need confirmation through price action.
DreamAnalysis | DXY Insights with Major Price Zones AheadToday, we’re diving into the DXY (US Dollar Index), a key player in the forex market. We’ll break down its current price movements and explore what we can anticipate based on critical levels.
📊 Current Market Overview :
At the moment, the price has swept through several key sell-side liquidity (SSL) levels, including the Previous Month Low (PML). We expected a retracement higher, but so far, price hasn’t made any significant moves. Now, price is hovering around an Equal Low (EQL), which also aligns with the Previous Week Low (PWL). With that said, the possibility remains that price could drive lower, clearing additional SSL levels.
🕓 Identifying Key Levels :
Here are the critical levels we’re monitoring on the chart:
- PMH: Previous Month High
- PML: Previous Month Low
- PWH: Previous Week High
- PWL: Previous Week Low
- EQL: Equal Low
- BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
- 4H FVG: 4-Hour Fair Value Gap (potential retracement and imbalance zone)
- Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap
These levels represent important zones where the price may gather liquidity, enabling it to move toward the next major target. The Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are imbalances that price may revisit to "rebalance" and collect orders.
📈 Bullish Scenario :
For a bullish outlook, we’ll need to see the price sweep the Previous Week Low (PWL) liquidity level, which is also an Equal Low (EQL). However, aggressive traders may look to lower time frames to find entries as price dips into low-resistance sell-side liquidity zones.
📉 Bearish Scenario :
In a bearish scenario, we would need the price to sweep low-resistance buy-side liquidity (BSL) levels on lower time frames before targeting lower levels like the Previous Week Low (PWL). Currently, there isn’t strong confluence on higher time frames to aim for significantly lower prices.
📝 Conclusion :
As we wrap up, it’s crucial to remain flexible and responsive to changing market conditions. Understanding key levels and potential scenarios allows us to refine our trading strategies and capitalize on opportunities.
🔮 Future Market Trends :
Stay tuned! We’ll continue tracking the DXY, EUR/USD, and other major currency pairs, offering timely insights and updates as the market evolves.
⚠️ Disclaimer :
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Will ongoing risk-on theme keep dampening the US dollar further?Macro theme:
- On Tue, PBoC surprised investors with a new set of support measures that positively impact risky assets. This unexpected move has injected a fresh wave of optimism into the markets.
-In contrast, the latest data from the US revealed a surprising decline in consumer confidence, which fell to 98.7 this month from a revised 105.6 in Aug. This marked the most significant drop since Aug 2021, sparking concerns about the health of the US economy.
- As a result, market expectations for another 0.5% rate cut by the Fed at its Nov meeting have increased significantly. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of such a move jumped to 60.7% from 53% just a day earlier. This shift towards a more dovish monetary policy stance has further weakened the US dollar as investors become more risk-tolerant.
Technical theme:
- On the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its support area of 100.55-100.60 and confirmed its downward movement. The price is trading below both EMAs by a fair distance, and there is a risk of a potential mean reversion if it tests a strong psychological level, such as 100.00, ahead.
- If DXY extends its decline, it may retest and find psychological support around 100.00, confluence with its descending channel's lower bound.
- Meanwhile, DXY may recover to fill its gap and retest the broken area around 100.55-100.60 before resuming its downward movement.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
U.S. Dollar Index is near to fall. Soon..The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19.
Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all the history peak, while Forex Eur/Usd (EURUSD) pair just has flashed a positive 2024 YTD return, jumping above 1.10 psychological degree.
The US Dollar continues to weaken following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased a new portion of expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank in September. Furthermore, last week’s US economic data revealed that both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that inflation is easing.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed on Sunday that the US central bank should adopt a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Daly countered economists' concerns that the US economy is facing a sharp slowdown that would warrant rapid interest rate cuts.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that central bank officials should be careful not to maintain a restrictive policy longer than necessary. Although it's uncertain whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failing to do so could negatively impact the labor market, according to CNBC.
Additionally, the decline in the US yields contributes to downward pressure for the Greenback. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.05% and 3.85%, respectively, at the time of writing.
This week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.
In a bottom line, the major technical graph for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates on possible huge decline for the next upcoming 12 to 18 months.
The secondary RSI(14) graph indicates also, the bearish sentiment prevails.
Dollar Index SellAs dollar index had expierenced waterfall during new on US session and it has stopped over its weekly support and is also forming a falling wedge pattern which is a Bearish Continuation pattern now and it has also completed ABCD waves and going to complete its last E wave if everything goes inline after E Waves it will break down its weekly to daily Support and will start falling again after a reset market sentiment is also indicating that DXY will continue falling also the confluence is price is trading in down trend on daily to H4 to H1 TF and bullish in weekly and monthly TF according to my anylisis DXY will keep falling till its weekly base acting as support on 98.00
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy.
So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs?
It turns out, they do.
Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October
Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now.
The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX.
The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
DXY: Some more downside is expected. Is it a buy after?The U.S. Dollar Index is on strong bearish levels on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.538, MACD = -0.480, ADX = 39.006) as it is extending the Channel Down with a rejection today exactly on its top. The very same Channel Down was seen last October-December (2023) and declined by -6.25% before recovering. The buy signal was a DB (double bottom) on the 1D RSI.
Consequently we will remain bearish on DXY (TP = 99.550) and only buy after we get a clear rebound (around -6.25%) and a DB on the RSI.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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“Dollar Index Declines After Fed Decision”The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy rate for the first time in four years, lowering it by 50 basis points to the range of 4.75%-5.00%. Following this decision, the decline in the dollar index accelerated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the decision shows increased confidence in maintaining a strong labor market while ensuring moderate growth and bringing inflation down to 2% sustainably. Additionally, the Fed lowered its federal funds rate projection for the end of this year from 5.1% to 4.4%, suggesting the possibility of a further 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year.
Technically, if the index falls below the 100.50 level, the 100.0 and 99.50 levels can be considered support. However, if it recovers and moves above the 101.0 level, resistance can be observed at the 101.85 and 102.70 levels.
DXY "DOLLAR INDEX" Bank Money Heist Plan On Bullish SideBonjour My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
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Will the US Dollar Index Collapse Below 100? Or Back To 105?The big day has arrived: the first Fed rate cut. The burning question is, will it be 0.25% or 0.5%?
In recent days, the markets have been leaning toward a 0.50% cut. Could this be the catalyst for a breakdown below the critical 100 level in the USDX? Let’s break down the charts and find out.
Looking at the weekly charts, the 100 level has been a solid support zone for several years, briefly dipping below last year in what turned out to be a false breakout within the 100 - 107 range.
I’ve highlighted some key levels on the charts: last year’s low at 99.47, and just below that, the 0.99 mark, which is a key Monthly 0.618% fib level and a strong former resistance turned support (see image below).
Below this level is a significant BUY zone, where the massive 2022 rally began, breaking through 100 and eventually driving the price up to nearly 115.
Considering these key areas, I do suspect we may see a breakdown through the 100 level, but it will likely be met with strong buying pressure at the areas mentioned. This is why, for now, I’m leaning toward the upside for the US dollar.
Zooming into the daily charts, an M pattern is forming at this key support, suggesting that price is gearing up to break through the 100 level.
Additionally, there’s a divergence emerging on the MACD, indicating that although a break below 100 might occur, it could be short-lived. This is why we should be looking for buy setups as the price dips under this level.
Zooming in further to the 6-hour charts, we can see the divergence even more clearly, with the MACD on the verge of a crossover to the upside.
With all of this in mind, a whipsaw move could be on the cards today after the rate decision. I’ll be turning on my TRFX indicator and watching for buy setups on dips under 100 and toward 0.99.
Although the USDX may weaken in the longer term, I fully expect a strong reaction at the levels mentioned, with the price likely to run back up toward the 103-104 area before selling off again.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
DXY "Dollar Index" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist DXY "Dollar Index" Bank based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
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The Dollar Index Accelerates Its Decline!The dollar index has been losing strength recently, falling below the 100.50 level. Following the ECB's decision to cut interest rates, expectations for a rate cut by the Fed have also increased. According to money market pricing, there is a 51% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and a 49% probability of a 50 basis point cut. This has pushed the dollar index below the 100.50 level.
Technically, if the index falls below the 100.45 level, the 100.30 and 100.00 levels can be considered support. However, if it recovers and moves above the 100.45 level, resistance can be observed at the 100.70 and 100.90 levels.
BITCOIN VS U.S. DOLLAR! BULL RUN??Hey everyone!
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Understanding the Inverse Correlation
As you correctly noted, Bitcoin (BTC) and the US Dollar Index (DXY) often exhibit an inverse relationship. When DXY weakens, BTC tends to appreciate, and vice versa.
Analyzing Recent Trends
DXY Breakdown: DXY is currently showing signs of a bearish breakdown from a symmetrical triangle on the weekly timeframe. This suggests potential further weakness in the US Dollar.
BTC Bull Flag: Bitcoin is forming a bullish flag pattern on the weekly timeframe, indicating potential upward momentum.
Potential Outlook
The combined analysis of both DXY and BTC suggests a favorable environment for Bitcoin. A breakout from the bullish flag, coupled with a weakening US Dollar, could lead to significant gains in the coming months.
What are your thoughts on BTC's and the U.S. Dollar Index's current price action? Do you see a bullish pattern in BTC? Share your analysis in the comments below!