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GOLD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAmid the looming US debt deadline, recent developments have triggered a turn towards gold as an instrument of risk hedge. Investors are closely examining the potential impact of a US debt ceiling agreement and its implications for federal spending. "Fitch moved the US sovereign rating on a watch negative radar as debt deadline looms. Investors are also assessing the possible impact of a US debt ceiling deal and how it could cut federal spending" says Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research at MUFG. Gold is being eyed as a promising refuge in the light of certain economic conditions. Khoman adds, "This had pushed investors towards gold, as a hedge against risk." The complexity of the current financial environment has particularly strengthened gold's attractiveness. Gold Outperforming in a Challenging Economic Environment While the Federal Reserve persists in tightening despite the rise in producer prices, money supply, and bank deposits, gold has emerged as a shining performer. Khoman mentions, "The unprecedented combination of the Fed still tightening in H1 2023 despite elevated producer prices, money supply and bank deposits, favour gold." The precious metal has outdone other constituents of the Bloomberg Commodity index on an annualised basis. According to the analyst, gold's beneficial position is likely to persist as the world navigates beyond the Federal Reserve's hawkishness. "Gold’s value proposition remains constructive as we are moving past Fed hawkishness since the US is seemingly slowing without derailing growth elsewhere," says Khoman. This economic slowdown could spur increased investment demand for gold, which has been relatively dormant in recent years. Emerging Market Central Banks Keep the Demand for Gold High Central banks in emerging markets (EM) are actively acquiring gold, a trend that has kept the demand for the precious metal robust. This purchasing pace is driven by geopolitical risks and de-dollarisation trends. "EM central banks continue to purchase gold at pace – a trend that we expect to continue to dominate gold demand on the back of elevated geopolitical risks and de-dollarisation trends," Khoman explains. Amid these forces, the trajectory for gold prices is set to rise, albeit at a potentially slower pace than seen previously. The analyst further states, "Overall, this suggests gold is poised to move higher, although it may be more of a slow grind than continued spike." MUFG's gold price models project an average of USD1,980 per ounce this year, with a tendency for the price to exceed this prediction. Khoman suggests, "Our gold price models signal an average of USD1,980/oz this year, with risks skewed to the upside." The gold analyst concludes that in a climate of increasing anxiety and looming recession risks, the potential downside for gold under a soft landing or further hawkish moves from the Fed is significantly less than the upside in the event of a growth shock pushing the US economy into recession. However, it might be challenging for gold to cross the USD2,100 per ounce threshold without the Fed resorting to rate cuts in response to a recession that necessitates pivoting towards growth support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by thunderpips
Forex Gods 🧞 Dare to Continue Eurusd? Well.. entering the final london session of the week here. I'd be a fool to change up on my analysis. What I have projected thus far this week has occurred exactly as I had anticipated. Would I be foolish to give up on this and outsmart my original idea so to speak. I don't want to play myself. When you stick around in the markets long enough, you begin to see things occur over and over again. Those who know, understand. It's not complicated though and it's actually pretty straightforward. When you mix an attachment to money in there, well no sh*t it is tied to our survival in the modern age. Well that's when things get complicated. Otherwise, I'm simply drawing lines and articulating what's unknown to me at this present time. I've done it long enough now to the point in which I am quite confident either way. Most of the time price bounces at my levels and so for the rest of time I will have the ability to create attractive Risk/Reward ideas. What a privilege. The difficult part is sticking around long enough to gain another perspective. I've seen many come and go and I feel lonely at times. I suppose that so long as I can draw my accurate level's/zones on the charts, the gods will have a place for me. Just as the gods do for all of us.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
DEATH OF THE DOLLARDear Friend,    “Wake up you guys. If you're saving US dollars, you're like the skipper on the titanic. You know they're going to have to print more and more and more and more all the time… This makes savers the biggest losers on planet earth.”   But here is what is fascinating… I know you will agree.   As the dollar gets weaker and weaker, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting stronger and stronger.    I’m going to say that again because it is so important. As the dollar gets weaker and weaker, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting stronger and stronger.    The giant hedge funds and investing firms are slowing their purchase of dollars and U.S. bonds...   They are now using their profits to buy cryptocurrencies.   The Wallstreet Journal reports that mainstream hedge funds are pouring BILLIONS of dollars into crypto. They go on to say that world famous traders including Alan Howard and Paul Tudor Jones are said to be increasing their trading in cryptocurrencies.If you want to become a successful investor, extra cash to pay off your debt, enjoy extra time with your loved ones, live your dream life…   Thank you for taking the time to read my letter,
TVC:DXY
by mehdi_kb
2
Eurusd Longs " Where art thou ? " 🔭As Bank Holiday Trading comes to a close, we can observe another Bearish Daily candle. The Eur is weak through the holiday trading and the U.S dollar advance is yet to give in. The dollar index is a little bit better than B.E. on the day. For Eurusd : - Watch 1.07116 4Hr Support zone closely. A Strong 4Hr candle closure rejecting this level may send us quickly back up to 4Hr resistance Zone 1.074 and next we may retest our most recent Daily Level ( Daily S/R Zone 1.076 ) - A touch into our 1.0665 Weekly Zone In my opinion is very likely and will coincide with the 6 Red folder news releases we have this week. - We have alot of news this week and we must be aware during our trading - Bull targets for the week include 1.08125 Daily Resistance Level - Bear Targets for this week include a touch into 1.06245 Daily Support Level No trading today since it is a bank holiday. Less opportunity in a low volume market. At least when it comes to the parameters of my trading plan. Safe Trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
DOLLAR INDEX - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISPosition for dollar weakness. While some top Fed officials have recently sounded more hawkish and data has been relatively strong, we believe the Fed is still closer to pausing rate hikes than other central banks, including the European Central Bank, which looks set to continue tightening. We expect the US dollar to weaken further this year as the US interest rate and growth premiums erode. The Fed is also likely to cut rates sooner than other major central banks, in our view. We advise investors to hedge their long USD exposure. In our global foreign exchange strategy, we maintain a preference for the Australian dollar and Japanese yen, and see relative value in the euro, Swiss franc, and British pound. A weakening dollar should also support gold, which we forecast will rise to USD 2,250/oz by June 2024.
TVC:DXYShort
by thunderpips
2
Jobs Data 🏗️ / Weekly Level 1.06643 Eurusd Jobs Data was expected to ease over the prior period as the U.S. may have had a smaller amount of job opportunties for it's citizens during the month of May. It turns that the U.S. had more about 160,000 more job openings than was expected. So this is positive for a few reasons - Data was expected to ease over the prior period but we didn't ease and instead the U.S. gained job opportunities during May. - Data was better than expected by a significant margin when compared to previous job openings data releases. This is Optimistic for the U.S. Economy. The impact of the News on price action has initially gone down and dropped from our 4Hr S/R level at 1.07018 Moving Forward I anticipate consolidation or a retracement in price while we hold above 1.06643. If we continue our descent and USD news turns out to be strong enough, our next target is 1.06235. After that, and with NFP data on friday, we may continue to drop to 1.05435. I took a buy at our weekly level 1.0665 when price creased the initial low created during the first 1 minute of news. I have since been stopped out by a small margin before price retraced in my anticipated direction but would take the trade once more given the chance. Weekly Level's are quite strong area's on the chart. Stronger than Daily Level's! They Hold quite frequently as we can observe from the trading earlier in the day. 2 Hours after London open was when we initially tapped into 1.06643 Weekly Level. It coincided with the new 4Hr candle and explains why you can observe no bottom wick on the previous 4Hr candle. Big Players trading on the Higher timeframes are supporting a demand area here. As a scalper I have them to help with my intra-day activities.
by ShrewdCatfx
2
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISThe recent drop in inflation rates in Germany, France, and Spain have triggered speculation about a softer eurozone flash CPI figure, suggests Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING Bank. This comes as the market consensus expects the headline to fall to 6.3% year-on-year from 7.0%, with the core slipping to 5.5% from 5.6%. Inflation Drops Fuel Euro Speculation "A faster fall in eurozone inflation than in the US would confound a market that had been betting that the greater weight of assets in US inflation would bring that measure lower faster than in the eurozone," says Turner. This observation underlines the potential repercussions of the current economic scenario on the dynamics of the EUR/USD exchange rate. Turner further observes that the softer European inflation this week has also seen eurozone swap rates drop relative to those in the US. "Eurozone swap rates drop relative to those in the US," he adds. This trend further illustrates the shift in the investment landscape due to the current inflation dynamics. Turner underscores that the two-year EURUSD swap differential has now returned to levels seen in March, putting further weight on the EUR/USD. EUR/USD Performance Delving into short-term predictions, barring any substantial surprises in the eurozone CPI data, the Euro to Dollar exchange rate is likely to outline a range of 1.0650-1.0720, in what Turner refers to as a "holding pattern ahead of tomorrow's NFP data." Despite this, the strategist believes that this area should provide a strong base for the pair during the summer months. "We reiterate that this 1.05/1.07 area should prove a base for EUR/USD this summer," Turner mentions. He substantiates this by pointing out that the current conditions are not nearly as severe as those that pushed the EUR/USD much lower in the same period last year.
Long
by thunderpips
GOLD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISAmid the looming US debt deadline, recent developments have triggered a turn towards gold as an instrument of risk hedge. Investors are closely examining the potential impact of a US debt ceiling agreement and its implications for federal spending. "Fitch moved the US sovereign rating on a watch negative radar as debt deadline looms. Investors are also assessing the possible impact of a US debt ceiling deal and how it could cut federal spending" says Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research at MUFG. Gold is being eyed as a promising refuge in the light of certain economic conditions. Khoman adds, "This had pushed investors towards gold, as a hedge against risk." The complexity of the current financial environment has particularly strengthened gold's attractiveness. Gold Outperforming in a Challenging Economic Environment While the Federal Reserve persists in tightening despite the rise in producer prices, money supply, and bank deposits, gold has emerged as a shining performer. Khoman mentions, "The unprecedented combination of the Fed still tightening in H1 2023 despite elevated producer prices, money supply and bank deposits, favour gold." The precious metal has outdone other constituents of the Bloomberg Commodity index on an annualised basis. According to the analyst, gold's beneficial position is likely to persist as the world navigates beyond the Federal Reserve's hawkishness. "Gold’s value proposition remains constructive as we are moving past Fed hawkishness since the US is seemingly slowing without derailing growth elsewhere," says Khoman. This economic slowdown could spur increased investment demand for gold, which has been relatively dormant in recent years. Emerging Market Central Banks Keep the Demand for Gold High Central banks in emerging markets (EM) are actively acquiring gold, a trend that has kept the demand for the precious metal robust. This purchasing pace is driven by geopolitical risks and de-dollarisation trends. "EM central banks continue to purchase gold at pace – a trend that we expect to continue to dominate gold demand on the back of elevated geopolitical risks and de-dollarisation trends," Khoman explains. Amid these forces, the trajectory for gold prices is set to rise, albeit at a potentially slower pace than seen previously. The analyst further states, "Overall, this suggests gold is poised to move higher, although it may be more of a slow grind than continued spike." MUFG's gold price models project an average of USD1,980 per ounce this year, with a tendency for the price to exceed this prediction. Khoman suggests, "Our gold price models signal an average of USD1,980/oz this year, with risks skewed to the upside." The gold analyst concludes that in a climate of increasing anxiety and looming recession risks, the potential downside for gold under a soft landing or further hawkish moves from the Fed is significantly less than the upside in the event of a growth shock pushing the US economy into recession. However, it might be challenging for gold to cross the USD2,100 per ounce threshold without the Fed resorting to rate cuts in response to a recession that necessitates pivoting towards growth support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by thunderpips