S/T DOLLAR LONG: Divergence, dip buying30M chart shows divergence.
Long term trend is up.
Dip buyers should come back into play because dollar has fallen faster than yields.
Dollarlong
Forecast Dollar-Index this week: retrace, then further advanceThis a follow up chart on the intraday forecast of Wednesday ( ). Expect a retrace to 101.00, then a further advance to 101.75. If really strong 102.00 is a possible secondary target.
US DOLLAR (DXY) MEDIUM TERM LONG: Fundamental and TechnicalFundamentally: rising interest rates, higher inflation expectations and a rise in US yields relative to other major G10 currencies should continue to drive the dollar higher.
Further into 2017, $10 trillion of off-shore dollar denominated debt is massively bullish for the greenback.
Technically: The dollar index has broken 100.50 - a major multi-year resistance level.
It has now corrected back to that level, and is supported by the 100.50 - 100.00 region.
After this correction, the dollar index should continue higher to the 105 handle.
LONG TERM OIL SHORT & USDCAD LONG: Dollar StrengthDollar strength is here to stay.
Fiscal stimulus, rate hikes, $10 trillion off-shore dollar debt, rising US yields, DXY breaking out of a multi-year consolidation zone.
The attached chart shows a strong INVERSE correlation between DXY and oil.
As the dollar strengthens, the oil price soon follows.
At present, there is a MASSIVE divergence between the oil price and the dollar index.
This needs to be corrected. Either the dollar will weaken, or the oil price will fall.
I mentioned before that dollar strength is here to stay.
Therefore, the oil price should dramatically fall.
It is temporarily propped up on the recent OPEC production cut, but should soon correct since the effect of a strong dollar will soon be felt.
Oil is correlated with CAD.
Furthermore, the Canadian economy is weak. After the election of Trump, BoC should cut rates.
Combining all of this - dollar strength, oil mispricing and CAD weakness gives us an excellent trade: long USDCAD.
DOLLAR LONG AHEAD OF FOMCStrong divergence on 15M and 1H charts.
Price outside 800 period BB.
FOMC expected to signal potential rate hike in December.
Risk = election, Trump win, political uncertainty ahead of election.
USDJPY BUY TRADEMAJOR SUPPORT TREND LINE AT 99.181.
PLACE A BUY LIMIT AT 99.181.
STOP LOSS AT 96.589
DXY / DOLLAR LONG: Divergence and TrendlineThe Dollar Index, DXY, dipped to 94.3 today.
However, on the 4H chart, there is strong divergence at this point.
Furthermore, since late April, DXY has trended upwards on the 4H chart.
If the trendline indicated holds, and DXY stays above 94.00, I expect the dollar to recover.
Fundamentally, I feel that a neutral Fed has already been priced in to the market, and weakness in other major currencies relative to the dollar (AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP) should mean that we will see some dollar strength over the next 1-2 months.
However, the September Fed meeting should be closely eyed, and if DXY breaks 94.00 there is considerable risk to the downside.
DXY OR $USD$USD is long and probably one can hold for few years if the dark green line doesn't breach. And sell when the historical red resistance line hits.
USDOLLAR (DXY) - Long Next Week (3rd wave)This week the dollar looks to have finished an ABCDE Correction,
Looking to make another impulse up next week.
