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Dollarshort

DXY short opportunity The US dollar index has retraced from 13-month highs at 96.98. Shooting star formation seen on daily charts and price has dipped below 5-DMA at 96.49. Intraday charts have turned bearish. Price action has dipped below hourly cloud and we see bearish divergence which adds to downside bias. Shooting star formation seen on daily charts and price has dipped below 5-DMA at 96.49. Price is holding support at 1H 100-SMA at 96.42. Break below will see further weakness. Next immediate support is seen at 96.31 (23.6% Fib) ahead of 1H 200-SMA at 95.84 and then 21-EMA at 95.50. Good to go short on break below 1H 100-SMA, SL: 97, TP: 95.84/ 95.50
TVC:DXYShort
by FxWirePro
Dollar Index - Short the dollarHello traders of the world. Thanks for clicking in! Today I'll be looking at the roaring dollar index and analyzing its potential drop off that may be coming up from this resistance zone. I've marked off the pivot highs and lows in circles and it looks like we've got a sideways trending formation coming. So if you're looking to make some trades that correlate against the dollar, I hope this bit of info will help put some green on those screens of yours. Let me know if you have any questions and show go ahead and give me a like if you agree with my thoughts.
TVC:DXYShort
by Agentzereo
US GDP data could hit the dollarThe dollar continues to consolidate at the top and can’t develop a corrective movement that has matured for a long time. In this regard, today's data on US GDP for the second quarter (preliminary) may well play the role of a trigger. On the one hand, the data is expected to be simply magnificent: according to different estimates, the growth rate will be 4.0-4.2%. For the largest economy in the world, this is a phenomenal result. The last time such rapid growth was observed in late 2014. There are reasons for such an impressive pace. This is the effect of the Trump tax reform, and the seasonal factor, and the overall good state of the US economy, and the potential positive effect for the US trade balance of the Trump trade wars. The dollar should only be bought on a such background. But we believe that everything is not so unambiguous. To begin with, the figure of 4% is already considered in the price and by and large the surprise does not bear. But any estimates below 4% may well provoke investors' disappointment and lead to local dollar sales. Are there any grounds for expecting weaker estimates? Judging by the fact that a few analysts just lowered their forecasts on the eve of the publication, they are there. Recall, one of the reasons for the sharp acceleration of GDP growth, the US was called the reduction in the US trade deficit because of Trump's protectionist policy. So yesterday, data on the US trade balance were published. Unexpectedly for many, the deficit not only did not decrease, but also grew quite sharply (from $ 64.85 billion it increased to - $ 68.33 billion). As a result, a few leading analysts lowered their forecasts (as a result, the median expectation dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%). For example, JP Morgan lowered its forecast from 4.4% to 3.9% (!). In our opinion, this is a very serious signal in favor of the fact that the dollar today may be subject to sales. Analysts' anxiety was caused both by the data on the trade balance and durable goods inventories. It is also not worth writing off Trump's factor - his recent attacks on the Fed (dissatisfaction with tight monetary policy), as well as a strong dollar worried investors and traders. And accordingly, several shook the groundl under the feet of the dollar. So, we continue to recommend selling the dollar while it's on the top. But at the same time, of course, do not forget to monitor the data.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
2
The dollar still holds, but everything has a limitThe growth of the dollar during the US trade wars looks rather strange. Yes, supporting and protecting national producers (the main goal of these wars) is a good thing, but the negative effects can far exceed this positive. Recall, last Friday, new tariffs against Chinese goods totaled $ 34 billion were incorporated. China, as warned, introduced reciprocal mirror tariffs. Trump in response threatened to expand the list of Chinese goods to a total of $ 250 billion. This is a very serious figure even for the two largest economies of the world. Approximately at this point in the development of events, we are now. Since the results of such actions by the US and China have global consequences, analysts of leading investment banks decided to calculate possible losses. The results are more than depressing. According to J.P Morgan estimates, exports from China to the US may decline by 8.6%, which will reduce the growth rate of China's GDP by 0.2%. In addition, the bank's experts also note indirect influence in the form of a negative reaction of the labor market, consumption and the decline of business confidence. Among the victims, of course, will be not only China, but also the United States, and the entire global economy. Analysts from Morgan Stanley believe that expanding the list of goods to $ 250 billion is fraught with a loss of 0.3% of GDP growth. At the same time, the US will lose from 0.3% to 0.4% of GDP growth. According to HSBC analysts, the trade war will cost China 0.4% of GDP growth. And Deutsche Bank estimated China's losses in 0.3% of GDP. As a result, the European Commission in the light of current events has already lowered the forecasts for the growth rates in the Eurozone. As you can see, the losses are more than serious. And experts at the same time forecast not the growth of US GDP because of the increase in domestic production, but on the contrary the slowdown in growth due to more than serious losses in the component of foreign trade, as well as the potential growth of logistics costs, labor market losses, and decrease in business confidence. Obviously, this is not a positive signal for the dollar. In total, we continue to hold the opinion that the current dollar prices are a good opportunity for its sales. At least until the situation with trade wars develops as it develops. And the very fact of the approach of the Dollar Index to the key resistance of 95.00-95.30 is an excellent occasion for its sales.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
3 reasons to sell the dollar todayNot so often there are days when you can say with almost 100% certainty that this is a day of great movement. So today is just one of those days. Too many crucial things happen on this Friday. First, the US tariffs against China ($ 34 billion) since today are reality. China, in its turn, introduces counter tariffs. In fact, this means war. Especially because Europeans are on the line, and the rest of the world as well. And although the issue of applying the protectionist foreign economic policy is ambiguous and has not quite obvious effects, nevertheless, most experts agree that the world economy will lose from this. And it can lose so seriously that a new world crisis will begin. The fact that the shares in Asia have updated the nine-month lows on the eve of July 6 suggest that these opinions did not arise from scratch. Secondly, today's statistics on the US labor market can quite unpleasantly surprise the markets. That is, we do not expect devastating data (there was simply no serious reason for this during the reporting period), but the markets are already so spoiled by excellent data from US that even a small negative deviation can well provoke a sell-off of the dollar. The United States is in fact trapped in the "ideal". Because it's impossible to stamp records always. Sooner or later, Akela will miss. The unemployment rate has reached the level of 3.8%. The occasion for optimism. So, it is so, but if you recall the course of macroeconomics, then there is such a thing as "natural unemployment". That is, the level of the labor supply, which provides an opportunity for further economic growth, since 100% deprivation deprives the economy of opportunities for growth (at least extensive). Estimates of the level of natural unemployment vary, but the consensus is somewhere around 4-5%. As you can see, the USA has already fallen below the critical level. That is, the possibilities of quantitative growth are limited. But the NFP indicator is just the quantitative growth and there is almost no space for it. So, the US will be very difficult to maintain the growth rate of new jobs at + 200K per month. And finally, as we said earlier, there are purely technica reasons, if you look at the Dollar Index chart, you can see its inability to overcome the key resistance 95 and see signs of a nascent correction: consolidation at the top, the formation of reversal graphical patterns, candlestick signals, in a neutral-negative state (see the KenJi and TDI indications), etc. So, we believe that the chances of a dollar increase are small, but the probability of correction is great. Therefore, we recommend selling the dollar on all fronts. The minimum target for correction for the Dollar Index is 93.30. But very likely and descent to area 90 in the foreseeable future.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Judgment day for the dollar is nearToday is a day off in the US, which means that the market will be thin enough to provoke a strong movement. Although a more likely candidate for the "judgment day" is, of course, Friday. And the explosion of volatility seems almost inevitable. The reason is that two very important fundamental events occur on this day. We are talking about statistics on the labor market in the US and the publication of the key indicator - NFP, in addition, it is on Friday July 6 tariffs on goods from China by the US amounting to $ 34 billion come into effect. That is, the trade war from words goes to its active phase. China's economy has recently experienced serious problems even without it (the number of defaults on corporate bonds in China is overshooting, which is an extremely unpleasant signal for China and the global economy as a whole). As the result, supporters of the judgment day intensified and predict another large-scale crisis in the world. Considering that Trump personally and the USA initiated and organized all this "mess", we believe that the dollar walks literally on the edge. And Friday is just perfect day for starting its full-scale sales. If you look at the graph of the Dollar Index, you can see its inability to overcome the key resistance 95 and see the signs of a nascent correction: consolidation at the top, the formation of reversal graphical patterns, candle signals, trend indicators go into a neutral negative state (see KenJi and TDI indications) etc. So, we believe that the chances of a dollar's growth are small, but the probability of correction is high. Therefore, we recommend selling the dollar on all fronts. The minimum target for correction for the Dollar Index is 93.30. But very likely it descents to area 90 in the nearest future.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
The dollar reached the ideal points for salesNo matter who is talking about, but we are again about selling dollars. Despite the positive news from the macroeconomic statistics and the aggressive actions of the Fed, correction for the dollar is inevitable. It has matured a long time ago, but the fundamental pressure continued to push the dollar up, despite all the technical maturity of prices for reverse. The Dollar Index reached the upper boundary of the medium-term range of 88-95. This is a sufficient signal for opening short positions. The logic is approximately the following: the most impatient buyers of the dollar in the absence of a fundamental support (and this week there is not a single event that could be an impulse for Dollar Index to break through 95) will begin to fix profits, which will provoke the first panic wave among the most impatient dollar bulls, which will be multiplied by mass oscillator signals, which will attract the first sellers. When the first fast averages begin to reverse, and they will be crossed the average with zero period (price), the second panic wave will start, when the bulls will receive countertrend signals. Mass exodus from long positions will inevitably lead to a decrease in the dollar. In favor of this scenario evidence very tough divergences on the daily chart of the Dollar Index. Over the past month, its price has grown significantly, but the classical indicators (RSI, MACD) have formed a downward vector. As for the fundamental factor that can act as a trigger, it is already in game - the transition of the US trade war against China and the whole world into an active phase. That is, by and large the conditions for the correction has formed. It remains to wait for it to start. In total, our recommendation for the current week: while the Dollar Index is below 95, sell the dollar. Target are rather optimistic up to 300-400 points on major dollar pairs.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
USD JPY - An inverted H&S?Morning traders! Today let's see USD JPY , in lower timeframes in my opinion there is some short opportunity until 106 zone , price has been rejected from 108 zone 2 times and that's an important resistance zone , while in long term , into the daily timeframe i've seen a potential inverted H&S , is still forming , it's just a potential signal so don't take that like a certainty but it's always interesting. Usually i don't trust really much about '' macro patterns '' as H&S cause sometimes think that some traders '' force '' the pattern but this time might be an important opportunity. Stay tuned and have a nice day traders!
Short
by maro9392
short Dxy at 94.66 for a pullback at 94.06Now that we get our 2 target in long i short eh Dxy for the pullback,he is also overbought and i think 94.06 its a good pullback level or we can go more deep to the Up t-line...but i prefer said only 94.06 who match with the resistance that become support enter at 94.66 Target 94.06 so is a go for 60 pts more we go in 2 separete position like all time for can close 1 in profit and let the 2nd in stop +10;+15 for be safe and get profit sure .
TVC:DXYShort
by corsicasia
MEDIUM TERM DOLLAR SHORTThe dollar has gone up too fast, too quickly. Technically: 1) Outside 800-period BB on the 4H chart. 2) Divergence at the 100.2 level. 3) The 100-100.5 region is strong resistance on the daily chart - we were there in December 2015 after which there was a major correction to the downside. 4) Missed pivot point at 95.5 is the target. Fundamentally: The promise of fiscal stimulus is the main driver of dollar strength, with a rate hike in December being almost fully priced in to the market (91%). The market is also pricing in further rate hikes in 2017. However, Trump's policies remain uncertain. Furthermore, in Dec 2015 the market was pricing in multiple hikes in 2016. These never came. A similar situation might occur now - since increasing rates too soon, too quickly might put pressure on credit and equities. Global risks remain high, and the dollar will sell off in the event of more global uncertainty.
TVC:DXYShort
by Exercise-Discipline