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US FED's New Policy Shift With Some Dollar StrengthUS FED's New Policy Shift & Medium-term Dollar Strength Wednesday's meeting by the FED has proved true that the FED is making a new monetary policy shift to normalize sooner than later, to reducing the size of the balance sheet ; and, this action that will send yields higher. This has brought strength into the USD. Thus, USD with strength being signaled, I a positive the USD in the medium-term for another quarter or two. This video summarizes a few trades that are being taken and that have been taken due to the highly anticipated event of a FED move, which happen sooner than expected.
by Rocketman
4 June: US30 bearish play is coming Technicals: Price is testing the resistance zone, which is also in line with the fibonacci confluence area found. In terms of market structure, prices broke below the market structure and we could see further downside here. Take profit target would be based off the -27% and -61.8% retracement that was taken from the last move. Fundamentals: Market risk sentiment leans towards a more risk off session on Friday's as investors await US NFP data due later today. A better than expected reading could see the Dollar edge higher, while putting downward pressure on US equities as investors anticipate a shift in the Fed's dovish stance and tapering of bond purchases ahead of expectations. Recent ADP report recorded the highest number of jobs added in the US in 11 months and record service-sector growth and the dollar strengthens after the Fed announced on Wednesday of plans to begin unwinding corporate bond holdings acquired last year through an emergency lending credit facility gradually to minimise any potential impact on the markets.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by T3-Consultancy
Short XAU/USD (swingtrade)Damnn guys! Are we going for over 90% success rate on this channel? :)) Intraday long on XAU/USD was off by a couple of pips, but if anybody followed the signal then nice profits should have been secured with trailing stop loss (1757>1755). Now we're back to the original short swing signal posted last week. Aiming for a TP somewhere in the 1600-1570 zone. Now, I would be lying if I said I caught the move. I may be good at technical analysis, but I still struggle with personal psychology. You would've been more likely to benefit from my signals than I did until this point (not trusting myself, pulling out too early, entering too late etc). Thought I'd be a little vulnerable so all my traders who ended up in loss this week feel a little better!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Katherineszew
4
A stronger Dollar isn't out of the questionThe Dollar index is something I've been grappling with for a while now. I bought into the narrative of a weaker dollar index particularly in light of the mass printing of money by the FED. Surely inflation must be a consequence of the monetary policies that we are seeing...? It just makes so much sense that we see a cheaper Dollar. But the macro people disagree and their arguments are plausible and so i pay attention. The biggest dilemma that i buy into with regards to a stronger Dollar index is the weaponisation of the US Dollar. Why would the US let their supremacy decline without a fight? Policy shock in the Dollar perhaps the biggest risk to countries around the world. My base case is for a weaker Dollar over the next 5 years, however, its not out of the question for the Dollar to strengthen should policy shift. The DeMarker indicator suggest that the Dollar Index should weaken over the short-term but lets see. Very tricky.... Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
INDEX:DXY
by JesseMorgans
🔰 DXY - Dollar Index — Two Weekly Targets , Follow for More✅🔰 We will try our best to be consistent with our Trading View Followers with more ideas and updates during the week 🔻 The Dollar Index Daily closed as another Doji Candle again but it has More Bullish Space to trade at — the intraday price has broken our Bearish structure and now trading Bullish to reach for our Weekly Target - For now e will wait until tomorrows London Session take our trade - we want to see a Higher High before London so we can take the perfect pullback 🔹 The next intraday Resistance is Our Weekly Target 🔹 Our Support Zone from here is 90.00 Then to 98.00 if we got any breakout Candle from there 🔔 Dollar Index will be effective this week with NFP events + Be aware of Fake Breakout ✅ DXY Bullishness will make all XXXUSD Pairs trade Lower 😉
TVC:DXYLong
by PipOfLife
2
A Historic Day for the Dollar 7/31/2020Dollar strength at the monthly view. Rest in piece, dollar strength. The dollar put up a fight. However, it failed to close the month above 93.60. As a result, today was the first month that the dollar closed below its 11-year-old channel. That same channel is what stabilized the dollar since the aftermath of the 2008 recession. What does this mean? Inflation is coming for us. From a trading view, equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies will rise due to the inflation. In addition, traders would be less willing to sell their assets. After all, if equities, commodities, and crypto are rising, when why you would sell for a currency that is losing value? In the longer term, any profits made with those assets could be eaten away by inflation. If silver goes up by another 10%, you sell it for a 10% profit. However, if the dollar tanks about 8%, then the inflation devalued your profits. Also from a trading view, Japan and Germany would face some serious red days since that means their currency strengthens. Japan and Germany are mainly export economies. A stronger currency for them would make them less competitive with their exports. Currently, the Nikkei and DAX are in a state of panic from a weak dollar. From an economic view, this will destabilize the financial sector and slow down economic recovery. Think about it. People won't sell because their assets would be inflated. They would sell if they need immediate cash. If they need cash, they can get a loan at extremely low interest rates. Banks need that interest revenue to survive the next recession. Furthermore, due to inflation, the value of that loan would be eaten away. Even if a bank loans out, they would lose profits due to that inflation. Why is this important? How many developed economies don't have a financial sector (banks)? The dollar would need to pull a miracle by the end of August to have any hopes of a faster recovery from this recession. We are talking north of at least 93.80.
TVC:DXY
by Itsallsotiresome
Dollar Strength's Last Chance 7/30/2020The dollar strength at the monthly. The dollar is in trouble now. That green line was its 9-year uptrend support. The channel itself was 11-years old. The 10-year bonds are also sinking to severely low levels. What does this mean? In the short-term, commodities, crypto (to an extent), and equities will all increase due to inflation. Weaker dollar means more foreign investments and inflating the price. It also means people are less likely to sell. Why is that? Think about it. Why would you sell your commodities or equities that are appreciating over time for a currency that it depreciating over time? If people wanted cash, they can take a loan where the inflation would decrease the severity of that loan too - with extremely low interest rates. In the longer term, this is devastating to the economy in general. You cannot have a thriving economy if your financial sector is unstable. The 10-year bond is one of the centerpieces of the financial sector. Weaker currency and a tanking 10-year bond could destabilize the financial sector. It's not an immediate effect, but it takes weeks or possibly months to sink in. Asset valuations and profit cuts from loans will stress the financial sector. What matters is tomorrow at month's end. If the dollar cannot recover its former channel, then we may see a price increase due to inflation. However, this breakdown will cause may hasten the recessionary effects upon the public. The two most important pillars in almost every economy are the financial and transportation sectors. If the economy wishes to recover faster, it will need a stable financial sector. So, the dollar needs to bounce hard today or tomorrow for that to happen. From a trading perspective, the dollar bouncing may cause a big pullback which may increase volatility within the markets. That would encourage more people to sell. If the dollar bounces hard like that, this may provide much more opportunities for traders to plan their positions. Personally, I'm holding of all trading until I see where the month closes with the dollar strength. I may miss a good run on commodities, but I'm managing the risk for a last chance bounce on the dollar.
TVC:DXY
by Itsallsotiresome
CADUSD: New Channel - Key S/R Zone - Short!?Good Morning, After CAD/USD broke out of the descending trend line I had on my last chart it seems like now it could be forming a descending channel. Price is approaching a key S/R zone and also the top of the channel, it looks like currently price is bouncing downwards off this but we will have to wait for the 4hr close. Once we have confirmation this could be a good short as it seems dollar strength might be gaining pace - good NFP numbers will be driving the dollar potentially and on the other pairs I trade I am starting to get a sense of dollar strength. I will wait patiently to see what the next move is - if price does break up then there is always potential for a short term buy on the bounce off retracement back to channel or SR zone. Let me know what you think!
Short
by Simple_FX_
CADUSD: Potential short incoming! Good Afternoon!, I have been watching and waiting for the price to move back up to the descending trend line and it seems its on its way their now, above in the chart you can see the short term descending trend line and long term ascending trend line are lined up nicely and it seems price should move back down before either bouncing off the ascending trend line and continuing the uptrend or breaking out below it. - I will wait for bearish confirmation on the 4HR time frame before taking a position - My TP target will be around 0.7209 where there is a key support level which also lines up for potential bounce off the ascending trendline From looking across the range of Forex pairs I have published my ideas about there seems to be a general short term bias to relative dollar strength currently in my opinion, as EUR/USD seems to be shaping up for a potential short and USD/JPY is shaping up for a long position as well. Let me know what you think? is the dollar gaining strength currently or do you have a different outlook! Good Luck!
Short
by Simple_FX_
AUDUSD: FIBONACCI CLUSTERSA fibonacci cluster indicates potential reversal zones, on any chart, in any market. They are used to anticipate major support/resistance levels. In this chart the cluster is made up by 4 different levels, consisting of: 61.8% retracement (dark red) 78.6% retracement (red) 127.2% extension (golden) 0.618 projection (black) Bearish hidden divergence, in which price forms a lower high while the oscillator is showing higher highs, confirms the short bias. The blue levels show potential support levels. Looks like $ is gaining strength ?? Good luck to all trading AUDUSD
Short
by MikulovicFOREX
USDJPY small trade ideaI dont normally play USDJPY since it has burned me a lot in the past next to GBPJPY but I am determined to overcome this pair eventually lol. I had put a small buy order in for a USD pullback. Nothing much but I believe we are heading higher in the long term. I see price has made an INV head and shoulder, failed to break out, pulled back to 88% and failed the low and has made a 3rd wave inside this consolidation on the 4HR. I can see price heading back to 109.00 if this is so. Like this idea? Is there something im missing? Help a trader out! Thanks followers! Let me know what you think of USDJPY if you're a forex trader as well! I have attached an old idea I had on USDJPY since the last time I traded it. This shows me we possibly have made a new LOW high price and could be on our way to a higher HIGH on the 4HR chart.
Long
by AschraM
3
US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) 4-HR TECHNICAL & FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISthis forecats will be unique and split in two as we look at the geo-political factors affecting the US dollar. Technicals: --------------- The US dollar index is moving in an uptrend, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. It has recently broke a counter-trendline on the 4-hour timeframe and is expected to move higher. The dollar has continued to strengthen against major currencies like the sterling pound and the Australian dollar over the past weeks. Fundamentals: ------------------- The Trump administration has made it clear that it aint scared of escalating the trade war against China, as long as they feel China still needs to learn a lesson. Trump made it known to the world (on Twitter obviously!!!) that he will not be reaching a consensus with the Chinese any time soon. This has proved positive for the United States dollar as the US has all the leverage against China, with goods of up to USD$200 billion at stake. China is at crossroads with it's flagship telecommunications company Huawei also being hung out to dry by American companies like Google and the SD Association. China clearly is moving one step closer to Mr Trump's "nuclear football" in this "cold war" warfare. It is surprising that people still hate Trump after all he did for the US economy. It's like how they rejected the prophets even though they had good intentions. I believe most hate stems from Mr Trump's no-nonsense immigration stance as foreigners fear that they will be chased back to their motherland. Otherwise some of the racism claims are baseless. And yeah they almost purged Kanye West for saying that Trump was gonna make America "great again". My loyalty lies with whoever makes me money, though that my leave my ethics in question. The truth is as a trader, Mr. Trump has made it easier for me to understand the dollar movement and therefore he has my respect. If you already feel like throwing up after reading this then go book a session with Hillary Clinton and Obama. First black president but aint done nothing but the crappy Obamacare. Lest you doubt, let me tell you some of the highlights of Trumps office run: 1) Managed to stop World War 3 by having talks with the mental North Korean Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un, convincing him to reduce/stop the nuclear race. 2) Best stock market rally with Dow Jones Index closing at $26,828.39 3) Started the biggest trade war in history and still has leverage (still on top) 4) Almost 4 million jobs created since election. 5) More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history. 6) Created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since election. 7) Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES. 8) Economic growth last quarter hit 3.2 percent. 9) New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low. 10) Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded. 11) African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded. 12) Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded. 13) Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded. 14) Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years. 15) Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century. 16) Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma. 17) Veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years. 18) Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election. 19) The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. 20) 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever. 21) Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone. 22) As a result of the tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years. 23) Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. 24) Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup. 25) Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines. 26) Record number of regulations eliminated. 27) Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions. 28) Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE. 29) More affordable healthcare options for Americans through association health plans and short-term duration plans. The FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. Many drug companies are freezing or reversing planned price increases. 30) Reformed the Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors hundreds of millions of dollars. 31)Signed Right-To-Try legislation. 32) Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic. 33) Reduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during his first year in office. 34) Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA tele-health services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care. 35) Increased coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high. 36) United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957. 37) Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord. 38) Cancelled the illegal, anti-coal, so-called Clean Power Plan. 39) Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year. 40) NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016. 41) Process has begun to make the Space Force the 6th branch of the Armed Forces. 42) Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration. 43) Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh. 44) Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal. 45) Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem. 46) Protecting Americans from terrorists with the Travel Ban, upheld by Supreme Court. 47) Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak. 48) Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports. 49) Imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to protect national security. 50) Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices. 51) Net exports are on track to increase 52) Improved vetting and screening for refugees, and switched focus to overseas resettlement. 53) Begun building the US-Mexico border wall which will curb drug trafficking from Mexico. Source: www.whitehouse.gov
TVC:DXYLong
by munyaelliott