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Fundamental Market Analysis for May 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting fresh buyers in Tuesday's Asian session following the release of strong inflation data. Additionally, comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left the door open for further policy tightening by the central bank. This is in sharp contrast to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates this year, and is proving to be a key factor that is providing a nice lift for the yen. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks related to the protracted war between Russia and Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East are contributing to the yen's safe haven status. The US dollar (USD), on the other hand, remains near its lowest level since April 22 amid concerns over the deteriorating US fiscal situation. This contributes to the USD/JPY pair's fall to 142.000, or more than a one-month low, and supports the prospects for further losses. Trading recommendation: SELL 143.300, SL 143.900, TP 142.000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Yen Reaches Highest Level in a MonthThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 142 per dollar on Tuesday, its highest in four weeks, driven by safe-haven inflows and weak dollar sentiment tied to Trump’s fiscal plan. Worries over a widening U.S. deficit weighed on the greenback, while speculation of a 25% iPhone tariff added to trade conflicts. Domestically, expectations for more BoJ tightening rose after core inflation surprised at 3.5%, a two-year high. Resistance stands at 148.60, with further levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Strengthens on Dollar WeaknessThe Japanese yen firmed to around 143.6 per dollar, heading for a weekly gain of over 1% as inflation data came in stronger than expected. Core inflation surged to 3.5%, its highest in more than two years, while headline inflation held at 3.6%, reinforcing expectations that the BoJ may maintain its tightening stance. The yen also benefited from continued dollar weakness tied to U.S. fiscal worries. Earlier, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato denied discussing exchange rates with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent at the G7 summit, dismissing rumors of joint currency intervention. USD/JPY faces resistance at 148.60, with further upside levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Key support lies at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
JPY Hits 2-Week High as Dollar WeakensThe Japanese yen strengthened to around 143 per dollar on Thursday, its highest in over two weeks, as concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook pressured the dollar. Fears that Trump’s proposed tax cuts could add over $3 trillion to U.S. debt weighed on investor confidence. Japan’s Finance Minister Kato said he did not discuss currency levels with Treasury Secretary Bessent at the G7 summit. Domestically, core machinery orders surged 13% in March, beating expectations of a 1.6% drop, while May PMI data showed continued weakness in both manufacturing and services.
by ChartMage
Yen Steadies on US Credit DowngradeThe Japanese yen held firm near 144 per dollar, marking its fourth straight session of gains, bolstered by a weaker US dollar in the wake of Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating. The move, prompted by fiscal concerns and rising deficits, dented dollar confidence globally. Despite this, Japan’s own economic data weighed on sentiment, with GDP shrinking by 0.2% in Q1, its first contraction in a year and worse than anticipated. Investors are also closely watching the upcoming Japanese trade data with concerns about the impact of potential new US tariffs. A third round of US-Japan trade talks is set to begin in Washington by the end of the week, led by Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa. USD/JPY faces immediate resistance at 148.60, with higher levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Key support is seen at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Strengthens Despite Japan’s Q1 ContractionThe Japanese yen strengthened toward 145 per dollar, extending its rally for a fourth straight day, despite Japan’s economy shrinking by 0.2% in the first quarter, worse than forecasts. While the Bank of Japan acknowledged the risks posed by U.S. trade policies, it remains confident that rising wages and prices will support eventual policy normalization. Investors are closely watching U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, with Japan insisting that any deal must include the auto sector and that the 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese cars be removed. Resistance is noted at 148.60, with further barriers at 149.80 and 151.20. Major support levels lie at 139.70, 137.00, and 135.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Falls Past 145 as Dollar StrengthensThe Japanese yen weakened past 145 per dollar, hovering near a one-month low as the U.S. dollar strengthened with improving global trade sentiment and diminishing expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts. The greenback gained momentum after President Trump announced a preliminary trade deal with the UK, the first since broad U.S. tariffs were introduced last month. He also signaled that tariffs on China could be eased, depending on the outcome of high-level trade talks set for this weekend in Switzerland. Adding pressure on the yen, Fed Chair Powell dismissed the idea of a preemptive rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks and labor market concerns. In Japan, personal spending rose more than expected in March, suggesting resilience in consumption, though a third straight monthly drop in real wages highlighted broader economic challenges. Resistance stands at 145.90, with further levels at 146.75 and 149.80. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Firms with BoJ CautionThe Japanese yen strengthened to around 143.6 per dollar on Thursday, recovering as rising global trade uncertainty stimulated demand for gold. The move followed President Trump’s announcement of a deal with a “big” country, reportedly the UK, and his refusal to cut tariffs on China ahead of U.S.-China talks in Switzerland. U.S.-Japan negotiations continue, with Tokyo aiming to finalize a bilateral deal by June. Meanwhile, BoJ minutes showed policymakers remain open to rate hikes if inflation targets are met, though they flagged external risks from U.S. trade policy. Resistance stands at 145.90, with further levels at 146.75 and 149.80. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Slips Toward 144 on Stronger DollarThe Japanese yen edged lower toward 144 per dollar on Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar strengthened amid optimism over potential U.S.-China trade talks and investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. President Trump suggested a possible reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan held rates steady but revised its growth and inflation outlook. Trading activity remained subdued due to a public holiday in Japan. Resistance is located at 145.90, followed by 146.75 and 149.80. On the downside, support levels are at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BOJ DecisionThe Japanese yen edged closer to 144 per dollar on Monday, continuing last week’s decline as global trade sentiment improved and the dollar strengthened. Markets responded to a private meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, during which both parties stressed the importance of ongoing discussions on currency matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s trade negotiator is set to visit Washington this week, as the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5%, amid concerns over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs. Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
by ChartMage
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 23, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) declined against its US counterpart for a second straight day on Wednesday and retreated further from the multi-month peak reached the previous day. The Trump administration officials' comforting comments on US-China trade talks triggered a sharp rebound in global risk sentiment, which in turn had a strong impact on traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen. Moreover, a slight recovery in the US dollar (USD) from multi-year lows, supported by easing concerns over Federal Reserve (Fed) independence, pushed the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, a level above 143.000 during the Asian session. Growing optimism that the US and Japan are moving closer to a temporary trade agreement is helping the yen, which reacted weakly to unimpressive domestic PMIs, to pause its intraday decline. In addition, strengthening expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates in 2025 is keeping JPY bears from betting aggressively. Meanwhile, investors are losing confidence in the US economy amid Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policy. This, as well as bets that the Fed will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle, is holding back the dollar and taking the USD/JPY pair below 142.000 in the last hour. Trading recommendation: SELL 141.700, SL 142.100, TP 140.500
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Yen Gains on Recession FearsThe yen rose past 144 per dollar, a six-month high, as U.S. recession fears and a Treasury selloff boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Although Trump paused new tariffs for 90 days, total U.S. tariffs on China now stand at 145%, prompting retaliation with China imposing 84% tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S.-Japan trade outlook remains in focus, with Japan still facing a 10% U.S. tariff but seeking better terms. Key resistance is at 145.80, with further levels at 148.00 and 152.70. Support stands at 142.00, followed by 139.65 and 138.00.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 10, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) showed strength during the Asian trading session on Thursday, reacting to the release of producer price index (PPI) data that exceeded market expectations. This macroeconomic signal reinforced speculation about possible further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), keeping the probability of an interest rate hike in the future. Additional support for the yen was provided by positive expectations of a potential trade agreement between Japan and the United States. Amid the weakening of the US dollar (USD), the USD/JPY pair showed a pullback and fell below the psychologically important level of 147.000, which was also supported by a limited correction of the US currency amid a general recovery in market confidence. The divergence in monetary expectations between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve remains significant. While Japan is increasingly likely to tighten monetary policy, markets in the US are pricing in a scenario of multiple cuts in the Fed's key interest rate in 2025. This discrepancy has prevented the US dollar from maintaining momentum after an overnight recovery from a weekly low, prompting a reallocation of capital in favor of the more stable yen despite its status as a low-yielding currency. Improved global risk sentiment, driven by US President Donald Trump's announcement of a temporary suspension of retaliatory tariffs against key trading partners, may also help strengthen the yen as a safe haven asset, especially amid continued uncertainty in international markets. Trade recommendation: SELL 146.800, SL 147.400, TP 145.400
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Yen Climbs as Trump Softens Stance on Japan TariffsThe Japanese yen strengthened past 147 per dollar on Thursday, moving in a volatile range as trade tensions persisted. Markets reacted to President Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries, offering Japan some relief with a reduced 10% baseline tariff. However, tensions remained elevated as Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to Beijing’s retaliation. The EU may be excluded from the pause due to its own countermeasures. Meanwhile, the U.S. confirmed plans to begin trade talks with Japan after Trump’s call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Key resistance is at 148.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 157.70. Support stands at 145.60, followed by 143.00 and 141.80.
by ChartMage
Yen Appreciates with Trade TurmoilThe Japanese yen rose above 146 per dollar on Wednesday, extending gains as Trump's looming tariffs drove safe-haven flows. The dollar weakened on recession fears tied to escalating trade tensions and potential Fed rate cuts. New U.S. tariffs include a 24% duty on Japanese goods and a 25% car import levy. Trump confirmed that Japan will send a delegation to renegotiate terms, while PM Ishiba urged a policy rethink. Domestically, Japan's current account surplus hit a record in February, supported by strong exports and reduced imports, boosting the yen further. Key resistance is at 148.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 157.70. Support stands at 145.60, followed by 143.00 and 141.80.
by ChartMage
Yen Steady Near 150.7 as Dollar StrengthensThe Japanese yen hovered near 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Concerns grew over Japan’s exports following Trump’s proposed tariffs on autos and pharmaceuticals. BOJ minutes showed officials remain open to future rate hikes, with one member suggesting a 1% rate by late FY2025. The central bank kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, citing global uncertainties. Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh SurgeMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh Surge USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 151.00 resistance. Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today - USD/JPY climbed higher above the 149.55 and 150.00 levels. - There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 150.30 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/JPY Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 148.20 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 148.80 against the Japanese Yen. It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 149.55. The pair climbed above 150.00 and traded as high as 150.94. It is now consolidating gains and there was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 148.18 swing low to the 150.94 high. The current price action above the 150.00 level is positive. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 150.95. The first major resistance is near 151.20. If there is a close above the 151.20 level and the RSI moves above 70, the pair could rise toward 152.50. The next major resistance is near 153.20, above which the pair could test 155.00 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is 150.30 and a bullish trend line, below which the bears could gain strength. The next major support is visible near the 149.55 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 148.18 swing low to the 150.94 high. If there is a close below 149.55, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 148.40 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 147.50 region. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USDJPY Buy Setup – Breakout Confirmation & Seasonal TailwindTechnical: USDJPY has broken above a downtrend resistance line after finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 146.95 . This breakout suggests the corrective phase may have ended, signaling potential for further upside. Pullbacks toward 149.70 (a retest of the broken trendline) present an attractive entry opportunity. Upside targets are 152.74 and 157.10 in the short to medium term. The setup is invalidated below 147.97 , with a break below 146.33 negating further bullish expectations. Fundamental: Commercial selling of the Japanese Yen and renewed dollar purchases indicate a shift favoring USD over JPY, supporting the bullish technical outlook. Seasonal: Over the past 25 years , USDJPY has risen 76% of the time between March 25 – April 8 , with an average gain of 1.04% . Trade Idea: Entry: On pullbacks toward 149.70 Stop Loss: 147.97 (or 146.33 for extended risk management) Targets: 152.74 and 157.10 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Signal_Centre1
Japan's Tariff Worries and BOJ Rate Hike HintsThe Japanese yen remained weak around 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as the U.S. dollar gained strength. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors raised concerns for Japan’s export-driven economy. BOJ minutes from January showed officials remain open to future rate hikes depending on wage and inflation trends, with one member suggesting a possible increase to 1% in late fiscal 2025. Still, the BOJ kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, maintaining a cautious stance with global tensions. Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Yen Weakens Toward 150 on Weak DataThe Japanese yen weakened toward 150 per dollar, extending losses as disappointing business activity data overshadowed the BOJ’s hawkish stance. Japan’s private sector contracted in March for the first time in five months, with manufacturing shrinking for a ninth month and services slipping into negative territory. While the BOJ kept its policy rate at 0.5% last week and maintained a careful tone before Trump’s predicted April 2 tariff announcement, the central bank is still expected to raise rates later this year due to steady inflation and wage growth. Ongoing external pressures also continued to weigh on the yen. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Yen Slips to 149 as Inflation EasesThe yen fell to around 149 per dollar on Friday, ending a two-day rally, after Japan’s core inflation eased to 3% in February from 3.2% in January, still above expectations of 2.9%. This marked the second month of stronger inflation, reinforcing the case for future rate hikes. Earlier, the BoJ held rates at 0.5% and maintained a cautious stance, citing global uncertainties, particularly rising U.S. tariffs. The bank also reiterated its focus on monitoring currency moves. A stronger U.S. dollar further pressured the yen amid global growth and trade concerns. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Dollar Weakens Post-Fed, Lifting Yen Beyond 148.5The yen strengthened past 148.5 per dollar, rising for a second session as the dollar weakened after the Fed reaffirmed two rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs as short-lived. The BoJ kept rates at 0.5% on Wednesday, adopting a cautious stance amid global risks, especially US tariffs. It also emphasized monitoring forex markets and their impact on the economy. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) attracted buyers for the second consecutive day and strengthened to a new one-week high against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday. Expectations that strong wage growth could boost consumer spending and contribute to higher inflation give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) room to raise interest rates further. This has led to a recent sharp narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries, which continues to support the low-yielding yen. In addition, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on the global economy, as well as geopolitical risks and the political crisis in Turkey, are contributing to inflows into the Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is struggling to gain meaningful momentum amid increased economic uncertainty amid US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. This, in turn, is weighing on the USD/JPY pair and contributing to the intraday decline. However, interest rate differentials, the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy, the trade balance differential and global market sentiment put pressure on the Japanese yen. The further direction of the USD/JPY pair lies on the upside. Trading recommendation: BUY 148.400, SL 147.600, TP 150.100
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004