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USDJPY Buy Setup – Breakout Confirmation & Seasonal TailwindTechnical: USDJPY has broken above a downtrend resistance line after finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 146.95 . This breakout suggests the corrective phase may have ended, signaling potential for further upside. Pullbacks toward 149.70 (a retest of the broken trendline) present an attractive entry opportunity. Upside targets are 152.74 and 157.10 in the short to medium term. The setup is invalidated below 147.97 , with a break below 146.33 negating further bullish expectations. Fundamental: Commercial selling of the Japanese Yen and renewed dollar purchases indicate a shift favoring USD over JPY, supporting the bullish technical outlook. Seasonal: Over the past 25 years , USDJPY has risen 76% of the time between March 25 – April 8 , with an average gain of 1.04% . Trade Idea: Entry: On pullbacks toward 149.70 Stop Loss: 147.97 (or 146.33 for extended risk management) Targets: 152.74 and 157.10 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Signal_Centre1
Yen Weakens Toward 150 on Weak DataThe Japanese yen weakened toward 150 per dollar, extending losses as disappointing business activity data overshadowed the BOJ’s hawkish stance. Japan’s private sector contracted in March for the first time in five months, with manufacturing shrinking for a ninth month and services slipping into negative territory. While the BOJ kept its policy rate at 0.5% last week and maintained a careful tone before Trump’s predicted April 2 tariff announcement, the central bank is still expected to raise rates later this year due to steady inflation and wage growth. Ongoing external pressures also continued to weigh on the yen. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Japan's Tariff Worries and BOJ Rate Hike HintsThe Japanese yen remained weak around 150.7 per dollar on Tuesday, near a three-week low, as the U.S. dollar gained strength. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on autos, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors raised concerns for Japan’s export-driven economy. BOJ minutes from January showed officials remain open to future rate hikes depending on wage and inflation trends, with one member suggesting a possible increase to 1% in late fiscal 2025. Still, the BOJ kept rates steady at 0.5% last week, maintaining a cautious stance with global tensions. Key resistance is at 151.70, with further levels at 152.70 and 154.00. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Yen Slips to 149 as Inflation EasesThe yen fell to around 149 per dollar on Friday, ending a two-day rally, after Japan’s core inflation eased to 3% in February from 3.2% in January, still above expectations of 2.9%. This marked the second month of stronger inflation, reinforcing the case for future rate hikes. Earlier, the BoJ held rates at 0.5% and maintained a cautious stance, citing global uncertainties, particularly rising U.S. tariffs. The bank also reiterated its focus on monitoring currency moves. A stronger U.S. dollar further pressured the yen amid global growth and trade concerns. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Dollar Weakens Post-Fed, Lifting Yen Beyond 148.5The yen strengthened past 148.5 per dollar, rising for a second session as the dollar weakened after the Fed reaffirmed two rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs as short-lived. The BoJ kept rates at 0.5% on Wednesday, adopting a cautious stance amid global risks, especially US tariffs. It also emphasized monitoring forex markets and their impact on the economy. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) attracted buyers for the second consecutive day and strengthened to a new one-week high against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday. Expectations that strong wage growth could boost consumer spending and contribute to higher inflation give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) room to raise interest rates further. This has led to a recent sharp narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and other countries, which continues to support the low-yielding yen. In addition, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on the global economy, as well as geopolitical risks and the political crisis in Turkey, are contributing to inflows into the Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is struggling to gain meaningful momentum amid increased economic uncertainty amid US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. This, in turn, is weighing on the USD/JPY pair and contributing to the intraday decline. However, interest rate differentials, the Bank of Japan's loose monetary policy, the trade balance differential and global market sentiment put pressure on the Japanese yen. The further direction of the USD/JPY pair lies on the upside. Trading recommendation: BUY 148.400, SL 147.600, TP 150.100
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Japanese Yen Hits Two-Week Low Before BoJ MeetingThe yen fell past 149.5 per dollar, a two-week low, ahead of the BoJ's policy decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates at 0.5% on Wednesday while assessing U.S. policy impacts. Despite a pause, rate hikes are anticipated later this year as rising wages and inflation support policy normalization. Major firms agreed to wage hikes for the third straight year, increasing consumer spending and inflation. Key resistance is at 150.30, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Yen Gains on Rate Hike ExpectationsThe Japanese yen traded around 148.6 per dollar on Monday, near a five-month high, as expectations for BOJ rate hikes remained strong. However, the central bank is expected to keep its policy unchanged in this week’s meeting. Major Japanese firms approved wage hikes for the third year, boosting consumer spending and inflation, and potentially allowing future rate increases. The yen also gained from dollar weakness as US economic concerns and trade policies pushed investors toward safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00. 
by ChartMage
Yen's Rise and the Risk of Currency VolatilityThe Japanese yen strengthened to 147 per dollar on Tuesday, its highest in five months, as US recession fears drove investors to long-term trusted assets. Trump's reluctance to dismiss recession risks, along with trade policy uncertainty, added to yen demand. Japan's economic outlook weakened as Q4 GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.8%, reflecting weak private consumption. Despite this, the BOJ is expected to keep rates steady in March, with potential hikes later. Finance Minister Shunichi Kato cautioned against excessive currency volatility amid the yen’s rapid gains. Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
Safe-Haven Yen Gains on Economic Risks, BOJ Policy UncertaintyThe yen rose to 147 per dollar, its strongest in five months, as US recession fears fueled safe-haven demand. Trump acknowledged economic risks, while Japan’s GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.8% due to weak consumption. The BOJ is expected to hold rates in March but may hike later this year. Finance Minister Kato warned of the real-world impact of FX volatility. Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further. Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
Dollar vs. Yen - Long Term Swing Trading Idea - 08-th Jan 25'USDJPY from 20-th Dec' 2024 to 6-th Jan 2025 created A-B-C-D-E formation which is 4-th wave. Then from 156.25 area till 158.55 created 5 waves and finished the trend. Our expectations for the next few days are the price to retrace at least 250 pips till zone of 156.00 and there will find support. Long term idea is to reach 153.00 level in period of one month. EURUSD is at weakest and creating a swing low at levels over 1.0250-1.0300. If EURUSD bounce back to 1.0600 that will confirm the USDJPY trading idea for weaker dollar in next few weeks. Trading idea parameters are as follows. Entry: 158.50 Stop 159.50 Target 153.20
Short
by TradingTie
4
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday, although it remains near the highest level since October 2024 reached earlier this week. Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week about a potential increase in regular bond purchases led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. In addition, concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and a positive tone on risks proved to be key factors undermining the yen exchange rate. However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year amid rising inflation in Japan. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates. What's more, previously released U.S. consumer inflation data suggests that the Fed doesn't have much room to cut rates this year. This, in turn, pushed US Treasury bond yields up, widening the yield differential between the US and Japan and limiting the upside potential for the low-yielding Yen. Trading recommendation: BUY 149.200, SL 148.800, TP 150.000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 24, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continued to strengthen against its U.S. counterpart last week and pushed the USD/JPY pair down to 149.000, its lowest level since early December, during Monday's Asian session. Japan's strong Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Friday complemented last week's encouraging Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth report. This, along with expectations that solid wage growth will drive consumer spending, suggests that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates more aggressively than originally anticipated and continues to support the Japanese Yen. In addition, the emergence of new US Dollar (USD) selling is favorable for the JPY and has contributed to the USD/JPY pair declining for the fourth consecutive day, marking the seventh day of negative movement in the last eight. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda showed willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise sharply. This in turn led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields from the multi-year peak reached last week, which triggered some intraday JPY selling and helped the currency pair bounce more than 50 pips from the daily low. Trading recommendation: SELL 149.200, SL 149.800, TP 148.300
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 18, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) attracted some sellers during Tuesday's Asian session, which, along with a slight rise in the US dollar (USD), helped the USD/JPY pair to stage a modest recovery from the 151.250 area or more than a one-week low. Investors welcomed US President Donald Trump's delay in imposing retaliatory tariffs. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven yen. However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid rising bets for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), helped by the release of robust Q4 Japanese GDP data on Monday. Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish expectations have led to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. In addition, the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), has narrowed the differential between U.S. and Japanese rates. This may further deter traders from aggressive bearish bets on the lower-yielding yen. Thus, it would be prudent to wait for strong buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed and positioning for further recovery. Trading recommendation: BUY 152.000, SL 151.300, TP 153.100
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 5, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is attracting fresh buyers after data released during Wednesday's Asian session showed a rise in real wages in Japan, confirming bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again. This is significantly at odds with expectations that the Federal Reserve (BoJ) will cut borrowing costs twice before the end of this year. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the U.S. will support yen yields. In addition, the weakening U.S. dollar (USD) led the USD/JPY pair to fall to mid 153.0, or the lowest level since December 18, in the last hour. Meanwhile, investors remain concerned that Japan could also be targeted by US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. This, along with a risk-on sentiment, could deter traders from making new bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports the outlook for further yen strength. The Japanese yen hit a one-month high against the US dollar amid expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. Expectations of further narrowing of the rate differential between Japan and the US also support the yen. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 15, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) is struggling to gain significant strength and is languishing near multi-month lows against its US counterpart amid doubts over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plans. Signs of intensifying inflationary pressures in Japan leave the door open for a BoJ rate hike in January or March. In addition, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino signaled on Tuesday that a rate hike remains a real possibility at the upcoming meeting. However, there was no direct indication in Himino's comments about the possibility of a rate hike in January. Moreover, some investors believe that the BOJ may wait until the spring talks before pulling the trigger. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkishness in December was a key factor behind the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields. This has widened the yield differential between the US and Japan, which in turn is seen as another factor undermining the low-yielding Japanese yen. In addition, risk-on sentiment is deterring traders from placing bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. At the same time, weak US Dollar (USD) price action acts as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation data. The crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report may influence the Fed's policy course and stimulate demand for the USD. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Yen strengthens as Russia rejects Ukraine peace planThe USD/JPY pair is experiencing notable movements, with the yen strengthening against the dollar at 156.72. This yen appreciation is driven by its status as a safe-haven currency amid growing geopolitical tensions and potential instability in Eastern Europe, following Russia's rejection of Trump's Ukraine peace plan. While the robust US dollar, supported by rising Treasury yields, applies external pressure, the yen's appeal is bolstered by the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) recent considerations for a possible rate hike. As the BOJ continues to assess economic data, including wage growth and clarity on future US policies, the potential for such hikes further supports the yen's strength. Traders should monitor BOJ policy announcements and global geopolitical developments, as the yen's safe-haven status might attract more interest, balancing external pressures from US economic factors.
by tastyfx
USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
USD/JPY carry trade explainedCurrently, the USD/JPY pair is trading around 154.26, influenced by upcoming policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The US Fed's anticipated 25bps rate cut could potentially narrow the interest rate gap, affecting the carry trade's immediate appeal. However, the strong performance of the US economy, with robust job growth and rising inflation, might sustain the dollar's strength, keeping the carry trade attractive. Meanwhile, the BoJ's steady interest rate at 0.25% and potential for future hikes offer a contrasting backdrop, maintaining the yen's role as a low-interest currency. Global economic uncertainties and political changes in both the US and Japan could impact these dynamics, so traders should monitor central bank signals and economic data closely to navigate potential shifts in the carry trade's profitability.
by tastyfx
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 13, 2024 USDJPYFading hopes of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December are putting the JPY bulls on the defensive. Higher U.S. bond yields are supporting the dollar and putting pressure on the low-yielding yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) continues to defend against its U.S. counterpart, lifting the USD/JPY pair closer to 153.000 or a new monthly peak during the Asian session on Friday. Recent media reports suggest that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which in turn continues to undermine the Yen. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be less dovish continue to support rising US Treasury yields and put further pressure on the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey released today showed that business confidence of Japan's major manufacturers improved slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024. This fits well with the central bank's plans to gradually raise interest rates and could deter yen bears from aggressive bets. In addition, lingering geopolitical risks and concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans should help limit losses for the safe-haven yen ahead of next week's key central bank events - the Fed and Bank of Japan meetings. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 153.000, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 10, 2024 USDJPYDoubts about the Bank of Japan's ability to keep raising rates proved to be a key factor undermining the yen. The Japanese yen (JPY) lost ground against its U.S. counterpart for the second straight day on Tuesday and lifted the USD/JPY pair to a one-week high, above the mid 151.000s during Tuesday's Asian session. Uncertainty over how soon the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates again has JPY bulls on the defensive. In addition, the overnight rebound in US Treasury yields from October lows undermines the low-yielding Yen. Furthermore, the US Dollar's post-NFP rebound from near one-month lows, backed by expectations of a less accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the currency pair. That said, the softer tone of risk sentiment, concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger a second wave of global trade wars, and geopolitical tensions help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven yen. Traders may also refrain from aggressive bullish bets on the USD/JPY pair and prefer to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation data due on Wednesday. The all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be seen as a fresh signal that the Fed is going to cut rates. This, in turn, will stimulate demand for the dollar and provide meaningful momentum to the currency pair ahead of the central bank's key events next week. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 27, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to attract some safe haven flows amid tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump. In addition, the recent pullback in US Treasury yields following the appointment of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary and expectations that he will rein in the budget deficit provides further support for the low-yielding JPY. This, along with weak US Dollar (USD) price action, led the USD/JPY pair to fall to a near three-week low around 152.700-152.650 during Wednesday's Asian session. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next interest rate hike in December may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on JPY. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions amid a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah may help limit the safe-haven JPY's gains. On the other hand, the US Dollar is likely to receive support from bets on slower interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could provide some support to the USD/JPY pair ahead of key US macroeconomic data released later today. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004