Last test for Yen before reversal/breakoutDollar Yen has break the rising trend line yesterday but being false break. Now price testing another falling trend line which could possible be the last test for price before a reversal setup or breakout signal formed.
If the price could make a breakout, we Long after pullback from breakout, upside target 111.90
If the price being rejected by the falling trend line, we Short Yen, downside target 107.70
Dollaryen
USDJPY 4/12/2016Watch the lines because it is important to know which line rejected it and which line saved it. The price of the asset merely bounces between lines. USDJPY might have a bounce, given that it was recently saved by that black line, but get ready to go short again as soon as it starts to break down at that black line.
USDJPY Making Plans To Leave Descending ChannelUSDJPY has formed and been trading within this descending channel over the last couple of weeks. After a failed retest of the 114.00 levels, it looks as if USDJPY is on it's way down. Prepare for a retest of the lows at 110.667, as well as a potential bearish break out. Market expected to head toward 110.00, 105.00, and eventually 101.00
Wolfe Wolfe Wolfe $USDJPY Wolfe Wave and GeoHello Traders,
We have 3 Wolfe Wave's here that I want to take a look at.
1. The first Wolfe Wave on the left completed in late 2014 at the 1-4 target line.
2. While the first Wolfe Wave was carving its path to the 1-4 line. A second Wolfe Wave formed. Here we created a 5" structure with the Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 at point 3.
3. The final Wolfe Wave was formed as usdjpy started to decline. Again it formed a 5" structure so we look at Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 at point 3.
From here there are two ways it can go. It can go to point 3 of the final Wolfe Wave or create newer lows and reach point 3 of the second Wolfe Wave.
-Chartistry
USDJPY potential break of weekly/monthly Support/DemandHere we have some very simple USDJPY analysis.
I have a bearish bias on this pair however due to price sitting at around support currently I have provided a long scenario target.
As we can see from the analysis USDJPY has successfully broken below what was a Major Monthly Ascending Trendline. The short term trend is also bearish on this pair. Taking all this into consideration my bias is to the short side in the medium to long term, with targets sat at around the 110.00 level. Price has not sat at 110.00 for nearly 15 months. The 110.00 Level also lines up perfectly with a monthly Fib extension which adds additional confluence.
In an ideal world I would like to see a clean break and close at or below 115.50 and for price to then retrace back into 116.00 to 116.30 level before looking for bearish confirmation and initiating a short order.
Remember I take an Instituional Swing Investment approach so this scenario might take a few weeks to play out and may not be a suitable for day trading or scalping for that matter. But if it does play out as derscribed above then we could well see price drop a significant amount. These are the kind of trades that interest me. If it plays out as described it also means that this type of trade is based on sound money and risk management because the Risk Reward ratio will be excellent.
My only concern with this pair is that we have not had a retest of the monthly ascending trendline. However, as you all know well... Forex isn't quite so simple and the charts dont always give us what we want and can sometimes just continue dropping or rising at their own leisure. In all scenarios, I recommend remembering that the markets can continue to remain irrational longer than our accounts can stay afloat. So trade wisely and I wish you all a happy trading week ahead.
If anyone would like to comment or post their own view then please feel free to do so.
Many thanks and Best regards!
Barry The Forex Trader
#BTFXT
USDJPY: UpdateSimilarly to GBPJPY, USDJPY seems to have topped after moving past the vix spike 75% retrace support level.
On the daily chart we can observe bearish rgmov signals and on the weekly we can see that price has gone under 123, and failed to produce new highs after testing a quarterly range expansion bar's 50% level.
It seems like this is the start of a strong bear market in this pair, so I'll be looking to go short on a retracement.
Invalidation/stop is a retrace past the 61.8 level of the first wave down, which I think will be over the weekly mode.
(I'm not positive is wave 1 down is finished, probably soon).
Again, going short here once we get the aforementioned retracment, is a very significant opportunity, which I don't intend in missing.
Good luck, and brace yourselves...wild ride coming.
Ivan.
USDJPY Bearish Gartley completes around 119.70-80 on H4 ChartThis is another chart based on harmonics on USDJPY H4.
This is a Gartley which will completes around 119.70.80 area which indicates, this pair may have a fall / reversal from this PRZ (Price Reversal Zone).
As par this chart, we may have a short trade on this pair from 119.70-80 area where we can stop at 121 even. We may let this target open to suit our targeted profit or take periodical TP or even we can take profit around 118.20 (50% fib).
So lets see how we can trade with our views and ideas.
Enjoy the last moment of this weekend.
USDJPY. Is that a breakout? or fallback?USD/JPY started the last week breaking below a descending triangle, but was not able to extend lower. Instead it continued to consolidate, and surged after the NFP report.
In this chat we can see that the market is on the upper Trendline of a triangle which is now in a challenging situation. If this dynamic resistant zone break successfully, it will expose the horizontal trendline resistant which is at 120.80 area as well as the last years high 121.80 (~). At the same chart, we drew 2 EMA which are 55 Days EMA (Red one) and 200 Days EMA (Blue one) which are well below the market. This is also indicating a bullish bias in this currency pair.
On the other hand. If the triangle trendline resistant can't be broken, it will fall to nearest support zone to 118.xx or less depending on how BOJ reacts with these sort of challenge this week.
In Lower TF: In 4 Hour Time frame, I can see a Bearish Gartley is formatting which may complete around 119.70-80 area. (uploading the image in the comment section). We can hope this market may not get further up than this point. (Which is also a medium level resistant area).
Nevertheless, I'm expecting some sort of retracement before the breakout happens to the upper side. We may even see a gap opening (in lower TF).
USDJPY Looking Toppish on Weekly ChartThe USDJPY is presenting a short setup as seen in this weekly chart where the RSI and Stochastics are both rolling over from overbought levels. The MACD blue line is also flattening, with the MACD histogram finally falling for the first time this week in its current rally. Equally importantly is how the USDJPY has just been rejected at the ascending wedge resistance line drawn in this chart. A first key downside target would be the roughly 104-104.5 range as projected by the ascending wedge support line. Feel free to visit stks.co for today's technical analysis on $GC_F, $SI_F, $USDX, $EURUSD, $USDJPY, $GBPUSD, $NG_F, $CT_F, $ZC_F, $ZW_F, $SB_F, $KC_F.
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