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Fundamental Market Analysis for May 02, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) jumped to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday amid speculation that Japan's financial authorities stepped in again, for the second time in a week, to support the domestic currency. This came amid a sell-off in the US dollar (USD) following the FOMC meeting and took the USD/JPY pair to 153.000. The yen, however, trimmed some of its strong intraday gains and continued to lose ground during the Asian session on Thursday, bringing the currency pair back above the round figure of 156.000. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates at zero and an indication that it will continue to buy government bonds as recommended in March is a big divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal. In fact, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday that it wants more certainty that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates. This, along with some dollar buying, lends support to the USD/JPY pair amid a positive risk tone that undermines the safe-haven Yen. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 156.000, on a rebound take Sell positions. If consolidation is above, take Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains under heavy selling pressure on the first day of the new week, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the psychological 160.00 mark for the first time since October 1986. The significant divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and the Fed's hawkish expectations continue to undermine the yen amid relatively low liquidity amid the holiday in Japanese markets. Nevertheless, overbought conditions and concerns over possible intervention by Japan to support its currency are helping to limit further losses. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is keeping the currency pair's gains in check, although significant Yen appreciation still seems elusive amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate outlook. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until September before cutting interest rates. This should continue to serve as a tailwind for the US Dollar. In addition, the overall positive tone on risks could undermine the safe-haven Yen and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This week, investors will also keep an eye on the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for early in the new month, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure on Friday, before making new directional bets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading on a weak note around 1.2502 in the early hours of Asian trading on Friday. A moderate rise in the US Dollar (USD) is weighing on the major pair despite weak US GDP growth data. On Friday, the focus will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data. On Thursday, the US economy grew at a slower pace of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 3.4% in the previous quarter. That figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. Nonetheless, prices remain stable, with data released Thursday showing that the personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 3.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Fed's 2% target. Following the release of weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth data and better-than-expected inflation data, the dollar fell to two-week lows around the mid-105.00s. As for the Pound, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers said that UK inflation has fallen in line with the central bank's expectations and the upside risk to inflation has diminished, paving the way for a rate cut. The market expects the U.K. central bank to wait to lower borrowing costs until next quarter, and to start ahead of the U.S. Fed. This, in turn, may limit the growth of the Pound Sterling (GBP). Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the level of 1.25000.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to struggle to make a significant recovery and languished near multi-decade lows against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session. Traders seem reluctant to make a decision and prefer to wait for an important Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Friday. In addition, this week investors will face the release of the advance first quarter GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index from the US on Thursday and Friday respectively. The combination of key central bank events and important US macroeconomic data will play a key role in determining the next leg of directional movement for the Dollar-Yen pair. Meanwhile, expectations that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain wide, along with the overall positive tone on risk, continue to undermine the safe-haven Yen. However, speculation that the Japanese authorities will intervene to support the local currency has kept JPY bears from betting aggressively. In addition, the US Dollar (USD) is near its lowest level in a week following Tuesday's disappointing US PMI data, and this is another factor contributing to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Nevertheless, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit the currency pair's decline. Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 154.200-154.900 on bounces from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) fails to gain meaningful momentum during Tuesday's Asian session and languishes near the 34-year low reached against the U.S. currency the day before. Monday saw a report that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will focus less on inflation and shift to a more discretionary approach in setting monetary policy. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that after the abolition of negative rates in March, the central bank will revert to conventional monetary policy, which allows different data to determine the future path of rate hikes. This adds to the uncertainty in the BoJ's outlook for future rate hikes and continues to undermine the yen. In contrast, markets pushed back expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of better than expected US consumer inflation data for March. This suggests that the large rate differential between the two countries will persist for some time to come, which, along with the bullishness of the US Dollar (USD), serves as a tailwind for the Dollar-Yen pair. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 04, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during Thursday's Asian session and looks to consolidate the previous day's modest rebound from around multi-decade lows. The increasing threat of intervention from the Japanese authorities continues to provide some support for the currency. In addition, the overnight drop in the US Dollar (USD) to near one-week lows contributed to the USD/JPY pairing near 152.00. A report released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that growth in the US services sector continued to lose momentum in March. This raises the stakes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates in June, which triggered a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and had a strong impact on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach to further policy tightening suggests that the gap between US and Japanese rates will remain wide. This, along with fresh gains in stock markets, should contain a significant strengthening of the yen and limit the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Thus, the main focus will be on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Trading recommendation: Trade in the 151.200-152.000 channel on a rebound from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY can go UP from 🟢Support zone🟢➡️RR=2.45🏃‍♂️ USDJPY is moving near the 🟢 Support zone(143.40 JPY-142.82 JPY) 🟢. 🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , USDJPY has successfully completed wave A in the 🔴 Resistance zone(146.26 JPY-144.94 JPY) 🔴. 🌊The structure of corrective waves is Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) . 🔔I expect wave B to end at the 🟢 Support zone(143.40 JPY-142.82 JPY) 🟢, and USDJPY will trend higher again and at least GO UP to the 🔴 Resistance zone(146.26 JPY-144.94 JPY) 🔴again. 👑 Position : USDJPY Position : Long Entry Point : 143.429 JPY (Limit Order) Stop Loss : 142.440 JPY Take Profits : 4145.852 JPY// 144.414 JPY(RR=1.00) Risk-To-Reward : 2.45 Please don't forget to follow capital management ⚠️ Please pay attention to the style of opening the position.⚠️ U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
13
USDJPY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Based my bullish bias for the US Dollar (DXY), I am expecting USDJPY to head higher as well. Last week price traded to a clear 4-hour Order Block before retracing and ending the week. Now there are 2 general areas where I expect price to move higher from and create new highs. 1. There are a few PD Arrays with my interest in this area, most of them overlapping. At the very least, I am anticipating the 8-hour Bisi to be traded into, and possible digging into the 45-minute Bisi and subsequent Order Blocks below. 2. There is an Order Block with a 2-hour Bisi in this zone. I could permit price to come into this area if price action was slow to get there, or if it were fast to get there I would allow for a sharp rejection. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
USDJPY: My next 2 moves as I expect BoJ to defend their currencyI'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to this, but right now the dollar is too strong for this to have made a difference. I'm expecting DXY to retrace from current levels and this cross could be a big beneficiary if BoJ do what I think, it's always good to trade strength against weakness. There could well be some little long scalp opportunities for me (with very very tight SL's moving to BE asap) on the way up to 150 (within the rising wedge) as that's still some good pips away, but for me the bigger moves now will be to the downside. I'm not planning on getting caught with any longs up here... This is a big news week for this pair with FOMC on Wednesday and BoJ interest rate decision and conference Friday, will be interesting to see how this all pans out ahead of these fundamentals, but beyond them I'm expecting things to play out as per this idea. I've plotted two moves, first from the 150 ish mark down to support, and then another sell down to the rising long term trendline.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
usdjpy is throwing bearish reversal signalsThe dollar has been very strong versus the Yen lately. Price has reached yet another high and i believe its like to retrace bearish. The sellers have stepped in a provided some indecision and buy exhaustion. The blue 8 exponential moving average crossed to the dowside below the 21 simple moving average and price began a minor downtrend. This usually occurs before a breakout and upon a retest of that bearish candle that initiated the downward movement. I'm awaiting a re-test of $13.868- $144.155 so signal if price would like to continue bullish intraday or retrace bearish and sell for lower lows now.
Short
by DesharedPierreJr.
Joe G2H Trade@ Buying USDJPYTrade Idea: Buying USDJPY Reasoning: Pullback into newly formed support on the daily. Entry Level: 138.104 Take Profit Level: 139.58 Stop Loss: 137.50 Risk/Reward: 2.4/1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
USDJPY POTENTIAL LONG FORMATION IN PROGRESSWe have been looking at this pair and waiting for various patterns to form which will assist us to form a basis for the potential direction of the pair. Our trades are based on the higher time frame trend, being the weekly and monthly charts in order to avoid excessive noise of the lower time frames. We can see that the pair remains bullish despite the pair showing bearish price action on the lower time frames, hence we are only looking for buying opportunities until further notice. With this being said we have managed to spot a buying opportunity due to the following reasons listed below: 1: Trendline breakout 2: Double bottom pattern formation. We are still waiting for two more confluence factors to form before we consider looking for entries. These have been listed below: 1: Key-level breakout which signals a change in market structure from bearish and bullish 2: Entry will be on a retest of key level area.
Long
by NDOBObanks
1
Looking to buy USDJPYOur trade relies on fundamental analysis, and technical analysis only serves as our entry point. Currently, the US is undergoing a process of quantitative tightening. The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate increase. A rate increase of 50 basis points or continued rate hikes would be seen as a hawkish signal. Meanwhile, Japan is maintaining its monetary easing policy, and the new BOJ governor, Ueda, announced in a recent speech that they plan to slowly continue their yield curve control to support a healthy economy. This has led us to take a long-term dovish stance on the JPY. Shifting our focus to the technical analysis, We are currently awaiting a retracement to the 61% Fibonacci level. However, we should remain vigilant as there is a possibility that the price may reject the 134.78 level. We are also waiting to retest the trend line and the demand zone.
Long
by keechi
Joe Gun2Head Trade - USDJPY Stalling as 5th wave completes?Trade Idea: Selling USDJPY Reasoning: USDJPY Stalling as 5th wave completes? Entry Level: 136.725 Take Profit Level: 135.36 Stop Loss: 137.05 Risk/Reward: 3.5:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
Joe Gun2Head Trade - USDJPY break out yesterday?Trade Idea : Buying USDJPY Reasoning: Closing break above 134.65 on daily Entry Level: 134.70 Take Profit Level: 136.72 Stop Loss: 133.91 Risk/Reward: 2.48:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
Dollar-yen, dailyThe picture on the chart of USDJPY is less negative in February so far compared to last quarter although this symbol’s reaction to the latest job report was significantly weaker compared to gold. Speculation on the new leadership of the Bank of Japan from April increased earlier this month, with news being reported yesterday that Kazuo Ueda is likely to be nominated as the next governor. Dr Ueda might be less dovish than the ‘default’ candidate, Masayoshi Amaniya, but this probably wouldn’t translate into a very clear change in policy by the Bank of Japan in the near future. With dollar-yen having moved back above the 50 SMA from Bands and intraday sellers being overpowered last week, the 100 SMA slightly above ¥136 could be the next important resistance. To the downside, a move below ¥127 is unfavourable with that area having been a support since the second quarter of last year. As above, waiting for the actual figure for inflation and trading based on the direction of the main reaction to it would usually be preferred to trying to find a position immediately.
by Exness_Official