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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 7, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day. This decline can be attributed to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday: "We will not raise rates when markets are unstable," according to Reuters. Deputy Governor Uchida also noted that the BoJ's interest rate strategy will adapt if market volatility changes economic forecasts, risk assessments or projections. Given recent market volatility, he emphasized the need to carefully monitor the economic and price effects of its policy, stating, "We should maintain the current degree of monetary policy easing for the time being." The upside potential for the USD/JPY pair may be limited as the U.S. dollar faces challenges and markets expect a more significant rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is 67.5%, up from 13.2% a week earlier. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues its uptrend against the US dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session, staying near the 12-week high of 152.640 set on Thursday. The yen's strengthening is likely due to traders unwinding asset trades ahead of next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which will force short sellers to cover their positions and strengthen the yen. In addition, the BOJ is expected to outline plans to reduce its bond purchases to scale back its massive monetary stimulus. On Wednesday, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda avoided commenting on currency issues, causing the USD/JPY pair to fall to its lowest level in two months, according to Reuters. The U.S. dollar may strengthen as the latest U.S. PMI data showed an acceleration in private sector activity growth in July, underscoring the resilience of U.S. growth despite higher interest rates. The data gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) more leeway to maintain restrictive policy if inflation shows no signs of easing. Investors are expected to keep a close eye on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) annualized (Q2) data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation on Friday. These reports are expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to rise for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, likely due to the return of risk-off-oriented flows. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting, prompting short sellers to exit their positions and lending support to the Japanese Yen. A senior ruling party official, Toshimitsu Motegi, called on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to more clearly outline its plan to normalize monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, according to Reuters. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida added that normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will facilitate Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy. The U.S. dollar (USD) is facing challenges due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 93.6%, up from 88.5% a day earlier. Traders await the release of U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data on Wednesday and annualized gross domestic product (GDP) (Q2) on Thursday. The data is expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak on Monday, extending its losing streak to a third straight session. Traders are preparing for next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, which may consider an interest rate hike to support the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will help Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy, according to Nikkei Asia. Speculative short yen positions, which had risen to their second-highest level, began to shrink after Japan's anticipated yen buying intervention this month surprised the market. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yen short positions held by market participants such as hedge funds totaled 151,072 contracts as of Tuesday. This represents a decline of 30,961 contracts from the previous week and is the biggest decline since May 7, when short positions declined by 33,466 contracts, according to another report from Nikkei Asia. The USD/JPY pair may limit its gains as the U.S. dollar (USD) faces challenges from rising bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and lingering concerns about the volatility of the U.S. labor market. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 91.7%, up from 90.3% a week earlier. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 157.500, and on the rebound we take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Dollar Winning Streak Extends Into Fifth Week! Time to Go LongI wanted to share some exciting news from the forex world: the dollar has extended its winning streak into the fifth week! 🎉 A key gauge of the dollar's strength continues to rise, driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut. With the yen showing signs of weakness, the USD is shining brightly on the global stage. This is a golden opportunity for us traders to capitalize on the dollar's momentum. If you haven't already, now might be the perfect time to consider going long on the US dollar. 🌟 Why should you consider this move? 1. **Strong Performance**: The dollar's consistent growth over the past five weeks clearly indicates its robust performance. 2. **Market Uncertainty**: With the Fed's interest-rate cut timeline still unclear, the dollar is likely to remain strong in the near term. 3. **Yen Weakness**: The yen's current weakness further bolsters the USD's position, making it an attractive option for traders. Don't miss out on this opportunity to ride the wave of the dollar's success! Dive into the market and make the most of this winning streak. 💪 Happy trading, and here's to continued success in all your endeavors!
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
The dollar will capitulate and then soar!Updating my TVC:DXY predictions: 1. Everything hinges on carry trade with Japan 2. Japan is raising rates until they resubmit to negative interest rates this summer 3. The USDJPY will plummet until summer, this will cause the dollar to go down which increases inflation in the USA and deflation everywhere else due to the dollar being a reserve currency. 4. I believe the FED will cause inflation to go higher kicking the can down the street 5. After this summer the dollar will explode to over 140+ killing all other currencies as they print to escape deflationary depression. 6. The dollar will finally explode making way for CBDC's 7. Gold, Bitcoin, Rupee will be my final three picks for the end of 2030 for best assets and currencies. Of course you'll want a farm and freeze dried food for the coming collapse.
TVC:DXY
by EmptyEternity
6
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 17, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair rose to 155.900 during the Asian session on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced fresh pressure. This was due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its bond purchases from the previous operation, abandoning an unexpected cut in debt purchases earlier this week. Traders speculate that the BoJ may cut bond purchases at its June meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said there are no plans to sell the central bank's ETF funds. In an interview with Bloomberg, former BoJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine suggested the BOJ could raise the benchmark interest rate three more times this year. Sekine noted that the next move could come as early as June, given the significant scope for adjustments to the current "excessively" accommodative settings. According to Reuters, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said at an event in Jacksonville on Thursday that interest rates should be patient, noting that significant price pressures remain in the U.S. economy. In addition, FRB Cleveland President Loretta Mester noted that it may take longer than expected to confidently determine the trajectory of inflation and suggested that the Fed should maintain a restrictive stance for an extended period. Trading Recommendation: On consolidation above 155.800 we consider buying, on rebound we take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair continues to rally around 156.20 and higher in the early hours of Asian trading on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen is losing ground against the US Dollar (USD) despite the hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to reduce Japanese government bond purchases on Monday, as well as unfavorable Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for April last week. Investors will be more focused on key US economic data this week, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales. These reports will provide some hints as to whether inflation remains intractable, is falling slightly, or even possibly rising. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects inflation at the wholesale level, is due out Tuesday and is expected to have risen 2.2% in April from a year earlier. The core PPI, which excludes energy and food costs, is expected to rise 2.4% y/y over the same reporting period. Traders can use the PPI report to gauge potential CPI results, and better-than-expected data could continue to strengthen the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). As for the JPY, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hawkish signal on Monday by reducing the amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) it offered to buy as part of its regular buying operation. The move is expected to put upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and possibly narrow the gap between Japan and the US, which has weakened the Japanese Yen. However, the recent movement has been muted and has had little impact on the yen exchange rate. On Thursday, Japan will release the country's Q1 2024 GDP growth data. Stronger figures may lift the yen and limit the USD/JPY pair growth in the near term. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 02, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) jumped to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday amid speculation that Japan's financial authorities stepped in again, for the second time in a week, to support the domestic currency. This came amid a sell-off in the US dollar (USD) following the FOMC meeting and took the USD/JPY pair to 153.000. The yen, however, trimmed some of its strong intraday gains and continued to lose ground during the Asian session on Thursday, bringing the currency pair back above the round figure of 156.000. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates at zero and an indication that it will continue to buy government bonds as recommended in March is a big divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal. In fact, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday that it wants more certainty that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates. This, along with some dollar buying, lends support to the USD/JPY pair amid a positive risk tone that undermines the safe-haven Yen. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 156.000, on a rebound take Sell positions. If consolidation is above, take Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains under heavy selling pressure on the first day of the new week, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the psychological 160.00 mark for the first time since October 1986. The significant divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and the Fed's hawkish expectations continue to undermine the yen amid relatively low liquidity amid the holiday in Japanese markets. Nevertheless, overbought conditions and concerns over possible intervention by Japan to support its currency are helping to limit further losses. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is keeping the currency pair's gains in check, although significant Yen appreciation still seems elusive amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate outlook. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until September before cutting interest rates. This should continue to serve as a tailwind for the US Dollar. In addition, the overall positive tone on risks could undermine the safe-haven Yen and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This week, investors will also keep an eye on the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for early in the new month, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure on Friday, before making new directional bets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading on a weak note around 1.2502 in the early hours of Asian trading on Friday. A moderate rise in the US Dollar (USD) is weighing on the major pair despite weak US GDP growth data. On Friday, the focus will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data. On Thursday, the US economy grew at a slower pace of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 3.4% in the previous quarter. That figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. Nonetheless, prices remain stable, with data released Thursday showing that the personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 3.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Fed's 2% target. Following the release of weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth data and better-than-expected inflation data, the dollar fell to two-week lows around the mid-105.00s. As for the Pound, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers said that UK inflation has fallen in line with the central bank's expectations and the upside risk to inflation has diminished, paving the way for a rate cut. The market expects the U.K. central bank to wait to lower borrowing costs until next quarter, and to start ahead of the U.S. Fed. This, in turn, may limit the growth of the Pound Sterling (GBP). Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the level of 1.25000.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to struggle to make a significant recovery and languished near multi-decade lows against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session. Traders seem reluctant to make a decision and prefer to wait for an important Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Friday. In addition, this week investors will face the release of the advance first quarter GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index from the US on Thursday and Friday respectively. The combination of key central bank events and important US macroeconomic data will play a key role in determining the next leg of directional movement for the Dollar-Yen pair. Meanwhile, expectations that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain wide, along with the overall positive tone on risk, continue to undermine the safe-haven Yen. However, speculation that the Japanese authorities will intervene to support the local currency has kept JPY bears from betting aggressively. In addition, the US Dollar (USD) is near its lowest level in a week following Tuesday's disappointing US PMI data, and this is another factor contributing to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Nevertheless, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit the currency pair's decline. Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 154.200-154.900 on bounces from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) fails to gain meaningful momentum during Tuesday's Asian session and languishes near the 34-year low reached against the U.S. currency the day before. Monday saw a report that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will focus less on inflation and shift to a more discretionary approach in setting monetary policy. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that after the abolition of negative rates in March, the central bank will revert to conventional monetary policy, which allows different data to determine the future path of rate hikes. This adds to the uncertainty in the BoJ's outlook for future rate hikes and continues to undermine the yen. In contrast, markets pushed back expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of better than expected US consumer inflation data for March. This suggests that the large rate differential between the two countries will persist for some time to come, which, along with the bullishness of the US Dollar (USD), serves as a tailwind for the Dollar-Yen pair. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 04, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during Thursday's Asian session and looks to consolidate the previous day's modest rebound from around multi-decade lows. The increasing threat of intervention from the Japanese authorities continues to provide some support for the currency. In addition, the overnight drop in the US Dollar (USD) to near one-week lows contributed to the USD/JPY pairing near 152.00. A report released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that growth in the US services sector continued to lose momentum in March. This raises the stakes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates in June, which triggered a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and had a strong impact on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach to further policy tightening suggests that the gap between US and Japanese rates will remain wide. This, along with fresh gains in stock markets, should contain a significant strengthening of the yen and limit the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Thus, the main focus will be on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Trading recommendation: Trade in the 151.200-152.000 channel on a rebound from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY can go UP from 🟢Support zone🟢➡️RR=2.45🏃‍♂️ USDJPY is moving near the 🟢 Support zone(143.40 JPY-142.82 JPY) 🟢. 🌊According to Elliott's wave theory , USDJPY has successfully completed wave A in the 🔴 Resistance zone(146.26 JPY-144.94 JPY) 🔴. 🌊The structure of corrective waves is Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) . 🔔I expect wave B to end at the 🟢 Support zone(143.40 JPY-142.82 JPY) 🟢, and USDJPY will trend higher again and at least GO UP to the 🔴 Resistance zone(146.26 JPY-144.94 JPY) 🔴again. 👑 Position : USDJPY Position : Long Entry Point : 143.429 JPY (Limit Order) Stop Loss : 142.440 JPY Take Profits : 4145.852 JPY// 144.414 JPY(RR=1.00) Risk-To-Reward : 2.45 Please don't forget to follow capital management ⚠️ Please pay attention to the style of opening the position.⚠️ U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
13
USDJPY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Based my bullish bias for the US Dollar (DXY), I am expecting USDJPY to head higher as well. Last week price traded to a clear 4-hour Order Block before retracing and ending the week. Now there are 2 general areas where I expect price to move higher from and create new highs. 1. There are a few PD Arrays with my interest in this area, most of them overlapping. At the very least, I am anticipating the 8-hour Bisi to be traded into, and possible digging into the 45-minute Bisi and subsequent Order Blocks below. 2. There is an Order Block with a 2-hour Bisi in this zone. I could permit price to come into this area if price action was slow to get there, or if it were fast to get there I would allow for a sharp rejection. - R2F
Long
by Road_2_Funded
USDJPY: My next 2 moves as I expect BoJ to defend their currencyI'm expecting USDJPY to carry on meandering towards the 150 mark, and it's at this level that we've previously seen BoJ step in to defend their currency, We saw the same in June / July 2022, and I think we'll see it again. BoJ has started hinting at a change to monetary policy for the first time in a long time, we saw a very small reaction in the past week to this, but right now the dollar is too strong for this to have made a difference. I'm expecting DXY to retrace from current levels and this cross could be a big beneficiary if BoJ do what I think, it's always good to trade strength against weakness. There could well be some little long scalp opportunities for me (with very very tight SL's moving to BE asap) on the way up to 150 (within the rising wedge) as that's still some good pips away, but for me the bigger moves now will be to the downside. I'm not planning on getting caught with any longs up here... This is a big news week for this pair with FOMC on Wednesday and BoJ interest rate decision and conference Friday, will be interesting to see how this all pans out ahead of these fundamentals, but beyond them I'm expecting things to play out as per this idea. I've plotted two moves, first from the 150 ish mark down to support, and then another sell down to the rising long term trendline.
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
usdjpy is throwing bearish reversal signalsThe dollar has been very strong versus the Yen lately. Price has reached yet another high and i believe its like to retrace bearish. The sellers have stepped in a provided some indecision and buy exhaustion. The blue 8 exponential moving average crossed to the dowside below the 21 simple moving average and price began a minor downtrend. This usually occurs before a breakout and upon a retest of that bearish candle that initiated the downward movement. I'm awaiting a re-test of $13.868- $144.155 so signal if price would like to continue bullish intraday or retrace bearish and sell for lower lows now.
Short
by DesharedPierreJr.