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No technical reason for a change of trend on USDJPYUSDJPY - Intraday - We look to Sell at 132.47 (stop at 133.84) Our outlook is bearish. The continuation lower in prices through support has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Further downside is expected. Our profit targets will be 129.07 and 128.00 Resistance: 132.60 / 136.00 / 140.00 Support: 129.00 / 126.00 / 124.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
USDJPY fundamental analysis: Is the yen out of the woods now?The Japanese yen rose to 133 against the dollar ( USD/JPY ), recovering from its 24-year lows. Short-term tailwinds are supporting the yen as the market has repriced Fed interest rate risks to the downside and has already priced in a rate cut in the first half of 2023. The yen is currently doing well in its traditional role as a recession hedge, with the US economy in a “technical recession” and the need to maintain growth “below potential” for a while in order to rebalance supply and demand. The yen has also recently received fresh support after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya acknowledged that the BoJ should start considering the tools for ending ultra-loose monetary policy, even though the actual shift will not take place soon. USD/JPY vs US/Japan 2-year spread Treasury yields are falling, providing some relief to the rate differential between the United States and Japan, which has been the primary driver of the yen’s depreciation this year. The 2-year yield spread between the United States and Japan has narrowed to around 300 basis points (or 3pp), as the US 2-year yield fell to 2.87 percent, while the Japan 2-year yield remained negative at -0.1 percent. Despite this short-term narrowing of the US/Japan rate spread, the monetary-policy gap between the Fed and the BoJ still remains well in place, which may prevent the yen from strengthening too much against the dollar, unless some major catalysts occur. What could push USD/JPY below 130? The first refers to disappointing US employment and economic data, which would support an economic slowdown. If this is coupled with easing inflationary pressures, it would strengthen market expectations of a Fed’s policy U-turn in early 2023, pushing the 2-year US/Japan differential to 2.5 percent or slightly below. This level is consistent with a USD/JPY pair in the 128-130 range. The second factor that could support the yen’s resurgence is Japan’s rising inflation rate, which, despite remaining relatively low, has risen for 10 consecutive months, exerting pressure on the Bank of Japan to change its monetary policy. Bottom line: short-term relief, but medium-term doubts In general, the macro picture may be tilting in favour of the yen, at least in the short term, but the downside risks, in the medium term, are not over. The Fed has already stated that the Q2 GDP figures should be taken with “a grain of salt” because the labour market remains very solid and tight for an economy in recession. There will still be two inflation prints in the United States between now and the September 21 FOMC meeting. Despite the fact that the United States was already in a de facto recession in the first half of the year, inflation has continued to rise. As a result, it will be remarkably difficult to bring inflation down quickly, implying that the Fed must maintain a hawkish stance for the months to come. Analysis by Capital.com's forex and metals analyst Piero Cingari
by Capitalcom
USDJPY Posted a Bearish Outside candle on the Weekly chartUSDJPY - Intraday - We look to Sell at 137.29 (stop at 137.99) Posted a Bearish Outside candle on the Weekly chart. This is negative for sentiment and the downtrend has potential to return. A firmer opening is expected to challenge bearish resolve. Resistance is located at 137.33 and should cap gains to this area. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 135.52 and 135.00 Resistance: 137.33 / 139.30 / 145.00 Support: 135.50 / 132.00 / 126.70 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Short
by OANDA
Dip buying offers good risk/reward on USDJPYUSDJPY - Intraday - We look to Buy at 137.53 (stop at 136.50) A sequence of weekly higher highs and lows has been posted. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Support is located at 137.50 and should stem dips to this area. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 139.96 and 140.50 Resistance: 140.00 / 145.00 / 150.00 Support: 137.50 / 134.40 / 126.70 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
1
Dip buying opportunity on USDJPYUSDJPY - Intraday - We look to Buy at 136.36 (stop at 135.96) The primary trend remains bullish. The continuation higher in prices through resistance has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing. A lower correction is expected. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 136.33. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 137.27 and 138.00 Resistance: 140.00 / 145.00 / 150.00 Support: 136.20 / 134.30 / 126.70 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
Long
by OANDA
USDJPY in a bearish divergence pattern: eyes on 134.5 supportThe USD/JPY daily chart shows a bearish divergence pattern as prices surged to new 20-year highs this week, while the relative strength index (14-day RSI) declined significantly from overbought levels. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is nearing a bearish crossover, as the MACD line (blue line) is sloping lower and may intersect the signal line (orange line) from above. The focus is now on the 134.5 support level, which if violated might result in further USD/JPY drops. The dollar-yen exchange rate fell below 135 levels at 14:15 UTC, down by 0.9% on the day. Year to date, the yen has lost 17% of its relative value to the dollar. In the fundamental picture, the need to control inflation through aggressive hikes in interest rates is the main factor causing concerns about an impending recession in the U.S.. Fed futures are now pricing rates at 3.5 percent by the end of the year, while the yield on the US 2-year Treasury note has dropped below 3%, down from 3.5 percent last week. It is a sign that the market has not lifted its expectations for interest rates following Powell's speech yesterday, and instead perceives the possibility of a Fed that will halt rate hikes in the case of a recession. There is no surprise from the Bank of Japan, and in the short term, we shouldn't expect a big shift toward more restrictive policies. But some former policymakers, like Takehiko Nakao, a former head of foreign exchange policy at the Finance Ministry, flagged that an extremely weak yen is negative for the Japanese economy. Traders are now waiting for the publication of the June US PMIs. The manufacturing PMI is predicted to fall to 56.5 from 57 in May, while the survey for the service sector is expected to rise to 53.5 from 53.4 in May. Read more...
by Capitalcom
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Yen emerging as a safehaven? (Finally!)Trade Idea: Yen emerging as a safehaven? (Finally!) Reasoning: Broken down from a range, targeting lower prices. Entry Level: 128.69 Take Profit Level: 125.97 Stop Loss: 129.39 Risk/Reward: 3.89:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Calling a top on USDJPYTrade Idea: Calling a top on USDJPY Reasoning: Price action stalling? Entry Level: 129.95 Take Profit Level: 128.62 Stop Loss: 130.52 Risk/Reward: 2.35:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
Yen Shorts, Reverse and buy?The usdjpy pair has seen an impressive move over the past 2 weeks breaking out of a range. This trend appears to have a great fundamental case as the fed has a clear path to hike rates. The rate differential trade could price this upwards of 125. Technically, this chart appears to have put in a top. The move after the fed announcement creating the large 4 hour wick looks very exhausted. 116 looks to be an area that could hold the price. I like buying or covering within a 30 pip range of that area. Over all the dollar will likely continue it’s ascent higher as despite its woes, all other currencies are worse off.
Short
by ThelmaBrowns
2