DoorDash: Sizzling Growth Amidst the Food Delivery RevolutionDoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) stands tall as a beacon of innovation and resilience. Despite the challenges posed by elusive profitability, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) has continued to surge ahead, gaining customers, expanding its offerings, and solidifying its position as the undisputed leader in the market.
Dominance and Moat:
DoorDash's ( NASDAQ:DASH ) dominance in the food delivery service is undeniable, with a staggering 65% market share that erects formidable barriers to entry for competitors. This dominance isn't merely a result of market share but also stems from a massive moat built on the back of its growing network of restaurants. In an environment where convenience reigns supreme, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) emerges as the incumbent of choice for both restaurants and customers alike, ensuring seamless transactions and unparalleled convenience.
Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion:
Despite the industry's notorious struggle with profitability, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) has demonstrated remarkable resilience in driving revenue growth and expanding its margins. With a strategic focus on increasing its take rate, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) has managed to boost its net revenue margin significantly over the past two years. The recent Q4 2023 earnings report bears testimony to this success, with revenues soaring to $2.30 billion, surpassing analyst estimates and reflecting a robust year-over-year growth of 26.7%. Moreover, adjusted EBITDA saw a commendable rise, underscoring DoorDash's commitment to sustainable growth and financial health.
Subscription Surge:
One of DoorDash's key growth drivers lies in its growing subscription memberships, exemplified by the success of DashPass and Wolt+. With over 18 million users subscribed by the end of Q4 2023, DoorDash's subscription model continues to resonate with customers, offering access to a plethora of benefits including waived delivery fees and exclusive discounts. This surge in subscriptions not only bolsters DoorDash's revenue streams but also fosters customer loyalty, laying the groundwork for long-term sustainability.
Diversification and Innovation:
DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) remains at the forefront of innovation, continually diversifying its offerings to meet evolving demands. Beyond food delivery, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) has expanded its services to include same-day grocery, staples, retail, liquor, flowers, and even medicine delivery. The company's foray into experimental ventures such as delivery drones underscores its commitment to pushing the boundaries of possibility and redefining the future of logistics.
Partnerships and Collaborations:
Central to DoorDash's expansion strategy are its strategic partnerships and collaborations with leading brands and retailers. By forging alliances with household names like Aldi, Safeway, and Target, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) has cemented its position as the go-to platform for a diverse array of delivery needs. Moreover, with over 150,000 non-restaurant partners spanning industries from beauty to pet care, DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) has created a vast ecosystem that caters to the varied preferences of its customer base.
Technical Outlook
DoorDash ( NASDAQ:DASH ) stock is trading the 200, 100 and 50- Day Moving Averages (MA) respectively with a weak Relative Strenght Index (RSI) of 21 positioning itself in the oversold region.
Doordashipo
DOORDASH - Bounce Along Downtrend DoorDash has formed a double bottom along the current downtrend
This is comparable to a previous double bottom seen, which correlates well with indicator used
A bullish move was the result
Lets see if it follows the same pattern
DASH record users and ordersDASH bounced from the fair value of its IPO. DoorDash priced its IPO at $102 a share, after an already increased price of $90/share. But the IPO's bankers sold the offering at $182 a share. This year the fair values was reached, 91 usd per share.
Q4 sales rose 34% from last year to $1.3 billion, active customer base of around 25 million, 2.5 times higher than prior to the pandemic.
Paid members more than 10 million, more than double the level prior to its December 2020 IPO.
For this reason i believe the $133 price target is fair valued right now.
$162 is the one year price target from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
DOORDASH correction RSI divergence H1The big rally on DOORDASH INC seems to be ended by a high of $220. Look at the bearish divergence on RSI. We can go lower to $195 or $188. If we break the actual uptrend, then we can go even lower.
But for LONG positions is a good idea to buy around $195 with SL under $180.
Accumulating into a bearish pennant flag on an overvalued stockBearish trend looking to place a stop loss on the option on the weekly for 160. Target is 146$. This company has no business being this overvalued in this IPO moneygrab market.
DoorDash (DASH): Everything You Need to Know After the IPOThis is my analysis on DoorDash (DASH), written prior to the IPO. Most of the information below is available from the S1 that the company filed to the SEC.
This is not investment advice. This was written for educational purposes only. You are responsible for your investments and trades. Invest at your own risk.
About DoorDash
- DoorDash (DASH) is America’s #1 delivery & takeout platform, covering over 51% of the market share.
- They currently have over 390,000 merchants, 1.8 million users, 1 million delivery workers (dashers), with an average delivery time of 35 minutes.
- During the latest series H, which took place in June 2020, the company raised $400 million, and was valued at $16 billion.
- Main competitors of this firm include Uber Eats (which acquired Postmates for $2.65b), covering 30% of the market share, and Grubhub, which covers 18% of the market share.
IPO (Initial Public Offering)
- DoorDash priced its IPO price at $102 a share
- There was tremendous buy volume as soon as the market opened, with the stock reaching $195 at one point
- The stock closed at $189 yesterday, after a successful IPO
Business Model
- DoorDash charges restaurants a 20% fee on average, for every order made on its platform.
- On top of that, they earn money by charging customers fees for delivery, which normally ranges between $6-8 depending on the distance and current demand.
- They also offer a subscription service – Dashpass – which exempts its users from paying service fees.
- They have an extremely systematic virtuous cycle involving consumers, merchants, and dashers, in which the cycle creates local network effects, economics of scale, and increasing brand affinity.
Financials
- The company has shown tremendous and consistent growth in revenue over the years.
- Nonetheless, they also continue to spend more and more and sales and marketing costs, as well as general administrative costs.
- DoorDash is also one of the many companies that benefited from the Covid-19 Pandemic.
- In 2019, the company generated $885 m in revenue, and in the first nine months of 2020, they generated over $1.9 b.
- While these are extremely impressive numbers, it’s still important to take into account the fact that the company is still not profitable.
- In 2019, they had a net loss of $667 million, and in the first nine months of 2020, they lost $149 million.
- Nonetheless, a company not being profitable is common with unicorns and startups, as they seek growth as their number one target, keeping in mind that profitability follows easily once they dominate the market.
- Another good news is that they currently have more cash and cash equivalents to cover their total liabilities, and thus won’t suffer from issues regarding lack of cash.
- Given the current momentum in the delivery market caused by Covid-19, experts anticipate 2021’s revenue at $5.2 billion, which is a 93% yoy growth rate, with operating profits of $280 million, which is a 23% yoy growth rate.
Risks
- The company might not continue to grow on pace with historical rates
- There is intense competition within the delivery industry
- Reliance on merchants for the success of the platform
- Their focus on expansion might not maximize financial results, and could result in lagging stock prices.
Precedent
- There are precedents of success regarding delivery & takeout platforms in other countries as well.
- Baedal Minjok, South Korea’s largest food delivery app, is in talks of being acquired by Delivery Hero.
- Baedal Minjok is a unicorn, which recorded a revenue of close to $8 billion in 2019.
- Considering that their 2020 records will be even higher, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we could expect DoorDash to do even better, since it’s the most dominant company of a bigger delivery market.
- Precedent cases demonstrate that the food delivery industry has significant room for growth.
- Nonetheless, considering that Baedal Minjok’s revenue is 8 times higher than that of DoorDash, and yet is valued at $4 billion is quite concerning for DoorDash, as it indicates that the hype and growth potential is factored into its valuation.
Mike’s Insight
In my opinion, I think DoorDash is a company worth looking into. It operates in a solid industry that benefits from the Covid-19 pandemic, and while the growth rate will slow down once the pandemic is over, precedent cases from other countries demonstrate significant room for growth. Nonetheless, since expectations for future growth seem to be factored into the company’s valuation, I’d be cautiously bullish on this company.
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Suuper Bullish on CORG especially after DoorDash IPO this month!Many people don't know anything about this but this company which is a ghost kitchen. On the forefront of the door to door for delivery. Many restaurants have went or are going out of business. Check out this video I found on YouTube that better explains it.
If you look at the chart, CORG recent found a bottom. Resistance at $0.239 I personally invested in this but I don't plan on holding for a long time. I'll probably sell half my holdings when the lockdown are lifted.