Is Gold Losing It's Relevance?Looking at some of the historic phases we were in (Dot.com Bubble, Real-Estate Bubble) and the current Zero-Interest Bubble, the M1 money stock and the development of the S&P500 the question arises if gold is losing it's relevance as safe haven. Given the explosion of central bank money and the clear trend to govern by central bank monetary policy one would expect gold should already show clear signs of strength and grow in value.
After the Dot.com bubble burst gold was in demand. After the real estate bubble burst gold was in demand. Then something happened. 9/11 and the "War on Terror" and continued M1 money stock or cheap central bank money flooding. Gold lost value continuously. Up until SARS-CoV2 and the Great Reset strategies being executed. With the sudden drop in oil prices in Feb. 2020 and Covid-19 being used to create quite a fear monster gold was in high demand.
But gold was put in check (for now) again by the central banks. This time with crazy rocket parabolic money supply explosion.
Now the question will be will central banks be able to contain the monsters they summoned by their strategies and keep the world economy afloat even when in the next couple of month the economic bad news will become visible and will have to be managed? Will the shy money seek yet another time gold as a safe haven?
Any of the yellow continuation arrow trends for gold seem possible. Note it does appear historically more likely that gold will rise to new heights.
Gold remains a valid portion of any portfolio. At what percentage and what shape (physical or digital ) is up to each of us to decide for ourselves.
Dotcombubble
TRASH TO SPACE? | Waste ManagementWaste Management is one of the few stocks I've traded over the years. Waste Management is a beautiful opportunity for investors with 30%+ gains avg. a year, for the last 5 year years.
When it comes to stocks, I often ask myself "do we NEED this company/service"... When it comes to trash, we do. I think it's going to be interesting what's to come for WM, will it strive through this next crash?
Pattern Recognition:
- As we validate this rising wedge, we look for a few more waves before it's descend (if rising wedge is successful). We look for a retest near $115 most definitely, if the bears can push we will see farther retest toward the $108 level.
Trash In Space?
" The development will occur in two phases. In Phase A, selected companies will create a concept trash compaction and processing system, conduct design reviews with NASA, and validate concepts through prototype ground demonstrations. Throughout this phase, the companies may request use of NASA facilities to conduct subsystem tests. In Phase B, a flight unit will be developed to demonstrate a system aboard the space station as early as 2022.
Inherent with the NextSTEP partnership model, private companies must contribute their own corporate resources toward the development of their trash compaction and processing systems. In this case, responders are required to show a minimum of 20 percent contribution toward the overall development cost, or 10 percent for small businesses. Proposals are due August 22, 2018. NASA plans to host a "
The future is closer than many think....
As always, I'm not a financial adviser nor am I providing financial advice.
DotcomJack
S&P500 History: 1987 and 1995 Parabolic AttemptsIn July of 1982 the S&P 500 bottomed and began its next bull market. It made a parabolic attempt in 1987 but was smashed down. Notice how orderly and well-respected the 13-year rising trendlines were. The SPX then made a 2nd parabolic attempt in 1995 but this time it was successful and lasted for 5 years.
I'm sharing these analyses of previous parabolas in the S&P500 because it is extremely useful for comparison to today's 2009-2020 expansion in the SPX. The SPX at present is making a 2nd parabolic attempt and this one looks a lot more convincing. Its good to remember that bubbles can grow to unimaginable sizes and last for years.
Also notice on the top chart how a rather significant decrease in the Federal Funds Rate correlates to expansions in the S&P 500
Like and Follow to see my 1900-1943 expansion -> unsustainable parabola in the S&P500 and a look at the present 2009-2020 expansion and how that relates to monetary policy and the gold and silver markets
something like thisI want to buy with the banks at $12. might take 6 years to get there though. looks like we are going into another Great Depression. makes sense as the previous depression started with a trade war as well.
damn totally sucks for people on the planet who are going to get absolutely screwed by this.
Amazon: Signs of a Dot Com Bubble burst.This study is intended to point out some very obvious similarities of Amazon's current trading action with that of the stock's Dot Com crisis period.
Our sole purpose is not to spread panic to a stock market that is currently strong and trading on All Time High territory but to keep investors on their toes and make potential buyers check and double check by looking on all possible angles before investing on AMZN.
Even though the price action now and then share many common features, it is of course common sense that it takes more than just similar candle action to justify such a bubble burst like the Dot Com collapse and that comes on a certain fundamental framework of a very negative series of events that shake a part of the economy as a whole (even a recession). Some can argue that the U.S. - China trade war is such an event and they do have a valid point. But it is too early to tell.
Can this be an end of an era for Amazon? Hard (and as said early) to tell, but it certainly provides a certain structure that investors may follow in order to limit the risk of such a potential price blast. In our opinion it is safer to either buy AMZN once the All Time High breaks or if by any extremely negative turn of events approach 1,300 again.
Use this information at your own discretion but certainly be very skeptical of this tech giant.
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From a bubble to a new paradigmJust some thoughts on the market psychology on bubbles.
Prevailing market sentiment on Booking in 2000:
"No stock can recover from that type of bubble."
"Booking is the new Tulip bubble, they took your money for good."
"Internet companies? The Internet is nice but you can't expect them to be able to make real money."
Prevailing market sentiment on Bitcoin in 2019:
"No financial asset can recover from that type of bubble."
"Bitcoin is the new Tulip bubble, they took your money for good."
"Digital currencies? Cryptos are nice but you can't expect them to have any real use in the real world."
Booking went from one of most thunderous busts of the Dotcom Bubble to being its industry's leader. Despite Bitcoin's impressive historic chart, it faces the same degree of disbelief.
Will history repeat?
IXIC (DOTCOM) BTCUSD comparison NTS - bullish outcomeI have proportionally scaled the IXIC chart inline with BTCUSD to compare the DOTCOM boom and crash directly to BTCUSD fall from 21K, there is currently no Total Marketcap chart on Trading View so BTC price is used for now; please check the total market cap on - coinmarketcap.com