Grand Finale: Wave IV Scenario (Update)This has been a grueling past 6 months trying to complete this corrective Wave IV before beginning the final motive Wave V of a 13 year bull market. Bulls and Bears playing mid-term options have been punished continuously for staying too long. I think it is important to keep the bigger picture in mind here - i.e. SPY will very likely make one last All Time High before entering a bear market. If you read the headlines of mainstream media you'll probably contest that we are already in a bear market because there was a 20% decline off the Jan. highs; however, the mathematical basis for such a definition is unsophisticated. But I am not here to argue the nuances of bear market definitions, rather, to provide a scenario that could unfold over the next couple months to provide a dramatic exit from this corrective Wave IV and on to new ATH by end of 2022 or early 2023.
What I am seeing is a WXY double combo, currently trying to complete Y via an expanding triangle. I understand expanding triangles are very rare; however, SPY has been trading with characteristics of such, and expanding triangles are observed in environments of extreme uncertainty - so for me the math and the logic align with this possibility.
What does this mean near term? Swing City. Huge 40-60 point swings that I have provided an estimated road map for in the chart above. I will be taking this one leg at a time, as there are layered conditional probabilities dominating the dynamics of the successive expected legs of this scenario (and the sub-waves there within) - so updates along the way will be warranted.
Initial Expectations :
- dead cat bounce early this coming week to the 406-408 level to test the bottom of the channel that formed last week around leg (c) on the chart. Point initial target 406.91 . This would form sub-wave b of leg (d) and mark a 0.618 retracement from the low Friday, 6/10, which was potentially sub-wave a of (d). Statistically, the move down at the end of last week put SPY in a very over-extended position to the downside and left a gap from 395.78 - 401.44 wide open. At minimum I would expect gap fill, but a perfect trap would be continuation to test the bottom of blue channel - and the latter would make more sense based on the ratios of the sub-waves of realized legs (a-c).
- high probability of rejection around 406-408. Rejection around the gap would have the same consequences: i.e., sharp downside to the 362-372 range (lower boundary of expanding triangle. I could see the initial dead-cat bounce to 406-408 unfolding into the FOMC next week around 6/15 (also a Supermoon that day so high volatility to be expected), and then harsh sell off to complete leg (d) by end of June. My point target for leg (d) is 364.49 .
Projecting beyond the point of leg (d) is speculative based on the general structure of expanding triangles, but if leg (d) plays out then I think the probability the remaining triangle completes increases significantly.. so I'll just give approximate forecasts for now.
- following leg (d), given (d) is realized within the vicinity of expectation, I would expect either a 3-count sub-wave up to around SPY 424, or an impulse (dashed projection) up to around 429-430 to form leg (e) = B of (Y) of IV. Such a move would be an explosive reaction to the sharp downside from expected (d) that would indubitably make us oversold af. Side note*: observe the candle back on May 13, it essentially carved out the levels pre-determined for the gap that was formed last Friday, 6/10.. pay close attention to price action around those levels in the days/weeks to come.
- in the event leg (e) is realized in either of the cases above, there would likely be one final leg down to form C of (Y) of IV (and ultimately complete corrective wave IV. Time to completion is speculative at best from here still, but probably around August 2022. By this time everyone will be confused af after getting whipsawed both ways with the huge swings of the expanding triangle, but if you believe me that this is possible and actually the most probable scenario that I see from here, you'll be like "oh... I C (Y)...IV."
If you think they'll be mass confusion at the completion of IV, just imagine the reaction when immediately following this completion SPY begins wave V and takes off to new All Time Highs in the 500s. Don't guard the man, guard the ball... ball never lies.
Regards,
Coach Phil Jackson
P.S. watch out for those Bulls in transition #23
Doublecombination
Home WreckerWhen I was a kid my parents and teachers used to tell me silly things. Like...
"You can't beat the system."
"Don't bet against the house."
...
"Pull your pants up."
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And I went through life... well, just playing video games and beating everyone on every system.
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And then I met GME... so now i'm going to beat the house, with my pants down, and I'm going to bet on it.
That pasted image of the weekly chart... look familiar?? HA HA HA
Sincerely,
Frank Underwood
P.S. this vision came to me in the flames within a dream within a shroom trip within a peyote trip at a campfire within a reservation where its legal (double combos everywhere)
357
357
357
Witchcraft: Grand Finale UpdateSee Chart and Previous Idea. Can refine to more precise expectations from here, still just approximates. Near-term downside risk still to 362, but probability favors technical bounce from here which could trigger a squeeze... and if SPY wants to bounce exactly at the bottom of the expanding triangle I drew in, chances are it will continue to respect it 4 legs in.
I just used an If-then statement conditioned on leg (d) being realized at today's low and a gap fill to 389.75 occurring following FOMC. From there I populated most likely path to (e) via Elliot Wave mixed with Witchcraft. So, something like: 370.59 -> 389.75 -> 380.54 -> 411.55 -> 397.72 -> 429.67.... -> 385.15 ------> breakout of expanding triangle at 444.29 later on in 2022.
The pasted image of the 5min SPY chart is zoomed in at the price action, thus far around the visible span of this supermoon (closest orbit to earth will be tomorrow at 7:24pm.. FEDS be spookin'). It implies a local downtrend line was broken going into close, we still need to get back above the red downtrend line at the higher time frame around 379-380 to attempt first gap-fill. My gf sent me the screenshot of the moon thing and says we're going to moonwalk.. shes a witch. The (W) C above the pasted image, that stands for Witchcraft.
I hope I see you all on the moon by end of June, else pray for my soul.
Imperio,
HeWhoMustNotBeNamed
P.S. The big money doesn't know Occlumency
GDR bullish impulsive pattern emergingThis is now my most likely count on Genedrive GDR corrective pattern ending in a Y wave triangle formation. All recent waves are 3 wave formations that suggests we are still in a correction.
With this I revert back to my impulsive count and the primary rise is now considered in 5 wave impulse, currently finishing the wave 2 in a wxy. Primary targets of the wave 3 end are remain extended higher, nicely corresponds to the ath level.
My alternative would be that we have finished the Y wave in a more complex parallel formation already and this means we will shoot up from here to w3.
Great entry point for these targets.
AUDUSD: FLAT CORRECTION SPOTTED IN AN ELLIOT DOUBLE COMBO. please review the chart for details.
Zigzag been spotted in the wave A and wave B of the Flat correction , i hope for another zigzag move in wave C.
please kindly carefully review the analysis for better understanding.
please kindly follow, like and comment if you find it useful, or if you support the Idea .
XAG/USDSilver has done 7 swing upon 7 swing. Oversold on weekly. Over extended on Monthly TDI. Already turned up on Daily TDI. There is potential for a very large trade to the upside if it were to do a larger 7 swing on the larger scale. We can get more downside before the LARGE upside move, but we are at a major fibonacci and pattern confluent supply zone. Hard for me to fully explain here what I am looking at, but major level, large potential for upside from this area is all I can really say, I can't explain the different scenarios.
BTC USD Double combo correction with ending diagonal?Maybe this correction is almost over and BTC 0.21% is printing a double combo ending in a diagonal. If so I'd expect one more run down here to stop at the lower trendline and then probably flat for a while before starting the next bull market.
I'm waiting to see if we break out here and complete what could be a bull flag . If so I might buy the breakout. If we don't break out, I'll wait to buy at slightly above the lower trendline of the descending wedge .
USD/CHF UpdateAt this point we simply measure and count out to have a double combo pattern for a "B" wave. I said I would prefer to see Uchf retest zone. It did and I circled where the "Real" sell setup was. The thing about trading these combo "B" wave patterns is you have to understand the possibilities and time your entries properly. Can it correct and go up more for a triple combo?.... Yes... And if it did that I would then probably be looking for it to do a running flat, not breaking the low (which I think Usd/Jpy is doing). But we have a completed pattern that barely broke the high and is coming down. I would think we should be looking for sell setups (smaller corrections) for continuation down. If you got in near top, I would let it run.
DXYDollar consolidating at trend line looking basically like EU upside down. It doesn't have to just reverse and break the low, although possible, but the pattern it is in should at least be due to pull back down to that zone to create more of a combo pattern moving up. Regardless, it looks like it is making a flag at trend line which we would expect. It can break out and go on a tear up anything is possible, but considering all the pairs swing patterns, such as AU, NU, and EU, along with the index I expect them to trap buys and come down. I would think it would shoot out trend line and wick down, but doesn't have to. I can't guarantee anything. Just saying the dollar pairs are over extended and seem to measure and count out to be in very identifiable combo patterns. But you could always just wait till next week and see if it is doing what I am saying and look for setups then.
AUD/USDAU made 7 swings down creating an over lapping diagonal pattern breaking trend line creating a smaller diagonal as it did so. It can extend down a little more. We don't have full confirmation of reversal, but you do see the bands and the level that it is at. I believe it to be in correction, which considering the price action on the weekly I would expect a more complex pattern, and as far as the wave pattern goes it would be totally possible for it to go up to break the high in a double combo 7 swing pattern, in which case it would probably not break the last low, however it can... That pattern could extend all the way up to that zone.... 38% from this very spot lines up exactly with the level u see marked. I'm not saying to just swing it and go for that, but I see it as very possible considering that this is the exact pattern it has made up to this point.....
GBP/CHF- Fun with charts....Ok...... So I spent some more time to go over gchf since it has extended. I would like to point out that it did a W-X-Y double combo pattern in the form of 7 swings. For this pattern you would expect equal length to 1.236 extension. Hit 1.236 today, along with the .764, which would also be conducive with a continuing pattern which would need to come down to most likely that .618(longer .618 line) Keep in mind GU hit the high also. It also lines up (roughly) with about equal time span of each pattern within the combo. These pitchforks are not necessarily drawn how anyone else would draw them, but take a minute to really look at the medians (red lines) and how price follows them...... Anyways strong level. I've looked sells lower down looking for a different pattern, or at least a sharp 3 wave this move, but all it did is keep extending, right to the fib extension. The issue is as of right now we have no reversal pattern or ending diagonal, plus Gchf could go into a large sideways consolidation (which would still probably produce a nice sell). We might even get a zone bounce (see horizontal green lines). The daily TDI WAY over extended. So is the weekly. Just please keep in mind this is not a 5 min chart... That is the daily..... We have nothing but a 4hr pin bar right now. There are different ways to go about attempting this trade and not put yourself at too much risk. If you want to learn about price action along with this stuff then subscribe and watch my you tube channel. I did a live trading session earlier, I go over a lot of charts... (it's free guys)...
"This is not the bottom you're looking for"Who really knows with Bitcoin? Even the top trending charters are wrong most of the time if we're being honest. This might be the bottom (or at least a temporary one), but really expect the true bottom to be preceded by a capitulation event and be more explosive. Here's where we stand from a trading perspective. If you missed this bounce, the risk-reward ratio is not super. We are currently nearing the end of our double combo correction.. now officially in wave 4 of the second 5-wave of the 5-3-5 five combo. This wave 4 segment will likely terminate near the trendline connecting the peaks at the end of the 3 wave correction at C, or, at the trendline that has contained the market since the ATH but this is less likely. We will probably keep squeezing into this wedge until we get to around $6k. The wedge trendline convergence and end of the double combo correction should leave us almost perfectly at a double bottom where you should see quite the fireworks, if we ever do get to that point.
Peace and love,
Crypt0guy
Buy AUDCAD: Double Combination Pattern #Neowaveaudcad is estimated to have finished forming correction wave with double combination pattern. may rise strongly as it will form the wave subdivision iii of the 3rd wave. the price will likely test the support at FE level 1, the reason is that the 3rd wave should not be the shortest in the impulse wave rule's.
as per my previous long-term analysis, maybe this will be a strong rise in the 3rd wave..
LONG - COPPER COPPER COPPER COPPER LOOKS SET TO MAKE A BIG MOVE DOUBLE COMBO TRIANGLE STRUCTURE ALMOST COMPLETE
D-E HAS GIVE US A NICE IMPULSE LEG SO WE COULD HAVE SOME CORRECTION HERE ALONG THE LOWER PARALLEL OF THE TRIANGLE - WATCH PRICE ACTION CAREFULLY AS THIS COULD TAKE OFF AND WE DON'T WANT TO GET LEFT BEHIND
STRUCTURE IS VERY NICE ALL WAVE COUNTS ARE IN THERE BUT I HAVEN'T PENCILED THEM IN AS TOO MANY JUST WAITING FOR FINAL WAVE DOWN TO COMPLETE AND WERE OFF
MY WORK IS JUST A GUIDE PLEASE ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN ANALYSIS BEFORE TAKING TRADE THANKS AND GOOD LUCK