GBPJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsThe price moved exactly 400pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes) to set the tone for bearish momentum. In the last week, and with the appearance of a double top pattern; the Pound appears to have found the crucial resistance at JY158 to incite a second downward spiral. The JY158 area already stopped buyers in October 2021 and January 2022. The JY157 area also stopped buyers during the course of last week trading session to signal a bearish momentum.
Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish)
Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) | Descending Channel
Observation: i. Despite an overall bullish momentum on this pair (see weekly time frame); the JY157 area has been resisting price action since October 2021 to reveal a bearish tendency at this juncture in the market.
ii. Since testing the JY158 area on the 10th of February 2022, price action has continued to find lower highs which culminated in a breakdown of Key level (JY156.450) at the beginning of last week trading session.
iii. This development gave rise to multiple rejections of the JY157 area to make this area our new supply zone for future selling opportunities.
iv. It is important that we put into consideration that the multiple rejections of the JY157 area share a confluence with the bearish trendline that has been guiding price action since the 10th of February 2022.
v. In this regard, I shall be looking to take a sell position below the key level identified at JY156.450 with an opportunity to add to my existing position at a breakdown/retest of the JY155.450 area in the coming week(s).
vi. Mind you, the early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test our new supply zone around the JY157 area to incite further decline... Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:4
Potential Duration: 3 to 7days
NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Double Top
Double-Top Coming For Ciena?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on February 15, 2022 with a closing price of 68.53.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 69.51 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.261% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 17.521% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 27.504% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 20 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
SHort Opportunity on AUDCADFX:AUDCAD
As we can see in the analysis Above, The pair has been on a downtrend since April 2021 based on the 200 Moving Average
Currently, it has just touched the 200 MA line again and I expect a sell from on a Daily Timeframe.
There is also a trendline that has been valid since July 2021, and it just touch the trendline resistance.
There is also a Double top pattern on 4hrs Timeframe
NB
The pair just completed the XABCD pattern on a weekly timeframe, meaning the pair just started a bullish run on a weekly TF so trade with care
That is my submission
GBPJPY Analysis Welcome back! Here's an analysis of this pair!
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BTC/USD: Double Top; bearish patternBitcoin developed a double top in this timeframe, but as the past analysis of Bitcoin, my prediction was perfect when I was in long posiiton around $43,800 USD, but I see a weak in the price and that, I decide to closed up my long position as I knew that Bitcoin could to drop to $42,800 USD, but Bitcoin drop more what I expecting. However, my prediction was very good.
Now, we have this bearish pattern called double top that it's completely developing, but we need a confirmation of the neckline using price action. But I do not going to make any of this zone. Also, for reference, you can to use H1 as I see bullish divergence that could to be in H4 a confirmation that I need to entry in short using the price action.
We wait that Bitcoin go back to $41,500 USD, I recommend to put an alarm in this zone to still pending.
Bitcoin Loss of Support$BTC double top with loss of support, immediate zone of support $37k to $38.8k with potential to push to $35k in near-term.
Macro environment uncertainty & hawkish Fed resulting in risk-off behavior.
Further bearish continuation likely with LTF bounces that present some opportunity for scalping activity but caution must be exercised as continued downward momentum remains in place.
Was the ROKU sell-off predictable?I warned you about than since i saw the Double Top Bearish Chart Pattern of ROKU last year:
and then the Netflix earnings, thinking ROKU, as a former Netflix project, will be next:
Now, after the earnings, i see a retracement to the May 2019 level.
Net Sales: $865.3 million vs. $894 million expected
Diluted EPS: $0.18 vs. $0.05 expected
For 2022 Roku sees adjusted EBITDA similar to 2020 levels of $150 million vs The Street estimates of $535 million in adjusted operating profits.
Fri 18th February 2022 USD/JPY Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified A new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a USD/JPY Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Bearish Dragon with Bearish DivergenceWe have bearish Divergence on both the MACD and RSI and are Back Testing a Trendline as new Resistance this looks like it will lead new lows.
USDJPY - Bearish Reversal - Double Top Here is a new SELL Scenario, i expect a bearish reversal, we reach the supply zone
this pair need a correction and will struggle going up !
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EURUSD Double-top Is Approaching TargetHappy Valentines Day Traders!
Today, we are on the EUR/USD pair.
We are looking at the 4-Hour time frame.
We are checking back in to see how our EURUSD Double-top trade has played out and we are approaching the target that was set up last week.
Remember that we were waiting for the retrace into the neck zone. Well, let’s have a look at the chart. Notice how that retrace came in beautifully before creating that large impulsive bearish candle.
We also have a strong bearish volume accompanying it. This volume added some confidence into the position as our entry was on the retrace.
Is it too soon to take profits? Well, we always have to make sure that we stick to our strategy as trading is a numbers game. We have to think in probabilities. We can’t go and change every single trade based on how we are feeling. Emotions have a strange way of controlling us. So having said that, we have approached the price structure where the target lies.
It’s not quite in there yet, however, if your stop loss was a bit tighter this could have easily been over 1/4 Risk/Reward.
I am confident in my ability to wait as that bearish volume is suggesting to me that price still may have some way to fall in that area.
Hope you all have a wonderful week and I will be seeing you all on the next one!
Double topIt would be hard to ignore this double top. However not a big one.
Btw a lot of indicators (Squeeze momentum, MACD) are still bullish or neutrals.
There is not (for me) enough strength in this sole pattern to short SPY and NDX, but you should think to close your long positions.
It reminds me this double top:
It could bounce on the support as it could break trough.
Wait for a confirmation of the bounce if you want to long from ~430$.
SPX: Could it reverse and fill the GAP at 4,652?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today.
First, in the 1h chart, it lost the support level we mentioned yesterday, triggering a bearish reaction, as expected. The correction was quite sharp, but is this a reason to panic?
To be honest, I was expecting a sharper correction, maybe to the previous support at the black line, but the index is trying to find support already. Yes, it still could retest the 21 ema and do a Dead Cat Bounce all the way down to 4,453. However, I'm not too convinced of that, and it is important to look at the Futures for more clues:
The index hit its previous support today at night, at the 4,456 (red line), and it is bouncing back up nicely. It found a resistance at the 50% Fibonacci’s Retracement, and it is trying to stabilize today.
As far as I know, the best moments to buy are near support levels, like red line, and sell near resistances, like the blue line. Given the way the SPX and the Futures are looking, it is plausible to see more upside potential, the question is, for how long it could go up.
Regardless of how the index reacts in the 1h chart, I still see the 38.2% retracement in the daily chart as the most important support level for the mid-term. By losing this retracement, it would trigger a Double Top chart pattern, and it could easily slip towards the 61.8% retracement.
If we’ll see a Dead Cat Bounce or not, we don’t know yet, as we lack confirmation on the charts. Any comment on that would be just a guess.
However, if the SPX breaks the resistance (previous support) at 4,531, this could be a nice false breakout, and the index might trigger a pivot point that could help it to break the resistance at 4,583 and fill the next gap at 4,652.
It’ll depend on how the index will close today. I’ll keep you guys updated, as always. If you want to keep in touch with my daily analysis on indices and stocks, remember to follow me, and to support this idea if it helped you.
Have a good weekend.
Nathan.