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Double Top

Update on the Yield Curve Inversion Battleplan Background My first idea where I lay out a yield curve battle plan was published 13 months ago.  It was by no means perfect but I found it quite useful.  I used it to buy the dip the market was experiencing and then when I was not seeing the follow through to a new all-time high I went back into safer assets (except for my crypto play money). The last idea looked at the spread between the 10 and 2year US Government Bond and this one will be looking at the 30 and the two year.  The spread on 30 versus 2 years isa lot more stable than the 10 and 30 and right now I find it is the more usefulmeasure. Main Chart The main assumption is that the process of the yield curve inverting is has extraordinarily complex ramification for the global financial system…. That are simply ultimately bearish.   The complexity initially drives prices up and then when the curve reasserts prices are driven down.  You could get lost in the weeds and look at the repo market, or how DXY pumping may affect trade balances and rotations int markets and all that.  Which is fine.  But I am looking for something simpler. The most important thing to recognize is that the classic blowoff top and bull trap formation performed with a lot of fidelity to a ABC correction.  A zoom in and view of the weekly chart shows a lot of strong buying right at the 2.618 level The 1989 and 2006 inversion did not have clear topping structures like we see from the dotcom pop and the current double top (which putting in its lower high) Compared to the dotcom pop those were baby crashes in time and intensity. A zoom in on the current price action of NDX and the bond spread shows that we have had bearish reversal candles on NDX and growing green candles on the bond spread.  It almost looks like the spread pair is in a W pattern and the ratio should be getting close to 2%-ish again. Double Tops Double tops have a take-off, a first high, a valley that links the first high to a second high, and then a sell off. Often the sell off returns price to the take off point. The tops do not need to be symmetrical. They can be “Eve and Adam” or “Eve and Eve” tops.  Right now it isn’t clear that type of double top we are in.  It could be a Eve and Adam or a Eve and Eve.  Even more formally, until price returns to the neckline we don’t even have a confirmed double top and we are just in early pattern recognition. The whole process of a double top can take a long time.  Here is a bitcoin double top from last bear market on the 12-hour time frame. It took 60 days to return from the take off point.  If I am right about being in the middle or beginning of the second top, then this pattern is only halfway or so to getting to target and over-performance is another matter. Conclusion If this idea is accurate once we see the 30- and 2-year US government Bond spread turn positive again we can expect a bear market/recession. We already had two quarters of GDP declining which for the longest time was a technical definition of a recession until “for some reason” people decided that wasn’t the definition anymore. Now also have numbers coming out of government agencies that people don’t trust because they don’t trust the Administratum and we are looking at chart formations and the yield curve for a real view of what is happening in the economy. And it is pretty bearish.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by This_Guhy
2
BTC/USD correction to 30k-38k incomingYou need to understand overall market cycles and look at the higher timeframes before you start analysing lower timeframes. BTC 4-year cycles consist of - Cycle lows - Halving - Cycle highs Note that right before the halving, price usually ranges or pullsback On the weekly chart, notice the bearish order block and void on the left where liquidity exists. This is where there will be W1 resistance. Note: Bearish order block = The last bullish candle followed by the move down. That bullish candle was responsible for the whole downwards movement. And this order block is what price has been seeking and has now been touched. Only now do we look at the lower timeframe, D1. We can see that a D1 double top is forming. We don't even need to analyse H4, H1, M30, M15, unless we are intraday trading. Please stop posting M15 bull flags and making a call that BTC will pump 50%. My prediction is BTC will correct down to 30k-38k. I will load up on alts when this happens. This is only probablistic - therefore I'm already 33% exposed to alts, in case price does continue to pump, or in case BTC ranges while alts pump.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BollKalle
Learn to identify some useful Chart patterns, Merry Christmas🎄 Unlocking the Secrets of Chart Patterns: Navigating Market Trends 📈 Season's Greetings to all our readers! As we celebrate the spirit of the holidays, let's delve into the fascinating world of financial markets. In our journey to understand and navigate the complexities of trading and investing, we've touched upon essential chart patterns that can serve as invaluable guides for market enthusiasts. In the midst of the festive cheer, let's revisit some of these powerful indicators: the Double Bottom, Flag and Pole, Bullish Pennant, Rising Wedge, Falling Wedge, Triple Top, and Inverted Head and Shoulders. Understanding these patterns can be akin to unwrapping gifts of insight into potential market movements. So, grab a cup of cocoa, settle into your favorite chair, and join us as we explore the significance of these chart patterns and share practical tips on incorporating stop-loss strategies to enhance your trading toolkit. Wishing you a Merry Christmas filled with joy, warmth, and prosperous insights in the financial markets! 🎅🎁🚀 Double Bottom: Description: Imagine a smiley face turned upside down. A double bottom is a chart pattern that looks like two rounded troughs (bottoms) next to each other. Interpretation: Indicates a possible reversal of a downtrend. The price has tried to go down twice but failed, suggesting a potential upward movement. Stop-Loss Tip: One can place a stop-loss slightly below the lowest point of the double bottom. If the price falls below this level, it may invalidate the pattern. Flag and Pole: Description: Think of a flag on a flagpole. The "pole" is a strong, quick price movement, and the "flag" is a rectangular-shaped consolidation pattern. Interpretation: The flag and pole pattern often signals a continuation of the previous trend. The flag represents a brief pause before the price resumes its original direction. Stop-Loss Tip: One should set a stop-loss just below the lower end of the flag. If the price drops below this level, it might suggest a reversal of the trend. Bullish Pennant: Description: Similar to the flag and pole but with a small symmetrical triangle (pennant) instead of a rectangle. Interpretation: Indicates a temporary consolidation after a strong upward movement. It suggests that the bullish trend might continue after the brief pause. Stop-Loss Tip: Place a stop-loss under the lower trendline of the pennant. A break below this line could signal a potential trend reversal. Rising Wedge: Description: Picture a triangle with its top side steeper than the bottom side. The price makes higher highs and higher lows but in a narrowing range, with indicator making Lower Highs (Bearish Divergences). Interpretation: This pattern can indicate a potential reversal to the downside. It suggests that the buying interest is weakening, and the price may soon decline. Stop-Loss Tip: Place a stop-loss just above the last price swing high of the wedge. If the price drops below this line, it may suggest a potential reversal. Falling Wedge: Description: Similar to the rising wedge but inverted. The top side is less steep than the bottom side. Interpretation: Represents a potential reversal to the upside. It suggests that selling pressure is weakening, and the price may be ready to move higher. Stop-Loss Tip: Place a stop-loss just below the last price swing low of the wedge. If the price drops below this line, it may suggest a potential reversal. Triple Top: Description: Visualize a horizontal line touching the tops of three consecutive peaks. Interpretation : Indicates a possible reversal of an uptrend. The price has failed to break above a certain level three times, suggesting a potential downturn. Stop-Loss Tip: One should set a stop-loss slightly above the highest point of the triple top. If the price rises above this level, it may negate the pattern. Inverted Head and Shoulders: Description: Picture three troughs, where the middle one (head) is lower than the two on either side (shoulders). Interpretation: This pattern suggests a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. It signifies a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Stop-Loss Tip: One should place a stop-loss just below the neckline (the line connecting the highs of the pattern). If the price falls below this line, it might indicate a failed reversal. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by RK_Chaarts
49
Chainlink (LINK): Potential Huge Drop To Come ?The LINK/USDT chart presents an intriguing setup with two potential bearish reversal patterns emerging—a head and shoulders and a double top. While these patterns are still forming and not yet confirmed, the similarity in their bearish implications cannot be ignored. Our major target is going to be here in that significant fair value gap (FVG) zone. The key area to watch is the neckline zone of the Double Top pattern, which, if breached, could indicate the start of a descent towards the lower green FVG zone.
Short
by SwallowAcademy
9
DOUBLE TOP AND DOUBLE BOTTOM / TRADE FROMATION 📈📉Hello Traders! I want to show you how to recognize on the chart the double top and double bottom formation. Recognizing double tops and double bottoms is a key aspect of technical analysis in trading. These patterns often signal potential trend reversals and can help traders make informed decisions. Here's a brief description of how to recognize each: Double Top: Formation: A double top pattern typically forms after an uptrend and resembles the letter "M." It consists of two peaks that reach a similar price level, separated by a trough (valley) in between. Symmetry: The two peaks should be roughly symmetrical, indicating that the buying pressure that led to the initial uptrend is waning. Double Bottom: Formation: A double bottom pattern usually forms after a downtrend and resembles the letter "W." It consists of two troughs at a similar price level, separated by a peak in between. Symmetry: The two troughs should be approximately at the same level, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Additional Considerations for Both Patterns: Timeframe: Analyzing the timeframe is crucial. Patterns on longer timeframes generally carry more significance than those on shorter timeframes. Confirmation: It's advisable to wait for confirmation before making trading decisions. This involves waiting for the price to break the neckline and observing sustained movement in the confirmed direction. Target and Stop-Loss: Calculate potential price targets and set stop-loss levels based on the height of the pattern. This helps traders manage risk and optimize reward potential.
TVC:GOLD
by GoodTradeST
ETH/USD - Ascending Triangle and a Double TopETH/USD is in an Ascending Triangle Pattern. We also have what could be a Double Top as well. Ascending Triangle Pattern = Potentially Bullish Double Top = Potentially Bearish Here is a closer look at this 1day chart. Note the Liquidity Void being filled up at the moment. Here is a closer look at the RSI. Momentum is downwards at the moment but note the over extension of the RSI on the attached Bollinger Bands. There could be interesting times ahead.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
1
GBPUSD → Weak fundamental background will weaken the poundFX:GBPUSD is set for further declines as the TVC:DXY will continue its strength on the back of Friday's NFP, which will weaken the pound sterling. On d1 we see consolidation and retests of key liquidity areas. Since the opening of the session the market has been testing local areas and the pound is forming a small correction, most likely from the nearest resistance the decline may continue. On H4, the double top is forming a false break of the channel resistance and we understand the approximate resistance area. The bears are concentrated in the range of 1.2600 - 1.2700. On a weak negative backdrop, the pound may test the zones of interest and liquidity below 1.250 in the medium term. Within the range trading inside the ascending price channel, the emerging correction may lead us to trend support. Resistance levels: 1.257, 1.2600, 1.2615, MA-50 Support levels: 1.250, 1.245, 1.2386 I expect the end of the correction at the nearest resistance with the subsequent price drop to these areas on the background of weak fundamental background. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
43
Profitable Moves, Stop Loss Placement, and Shorting OpportunitieReady to embark on the hunt for the next trading ventures? AUDCAD offers an array of possibilities to satisfy that desire. For those eyeing buying opportunities, the 4-hourly chart displays a potential Double Bottom retest around 0.8922. Alternatively, a Bullish Shark Pattern might complete around 0.8878, presenting another entry possibility. On the flip side, for traders seeking shorting opportunities, the 1-hourly chart indicates a potential Double Top Retest completing at 0.8963. Alternatively, keep an eye out for a Bearish Shark Pattern completing around 0.9006. What's your strategy for AUDCAD? Share your thoughts or trade plans in the comments below! Let's explore these potential setups together. 💬📈
by RaynLim
$SPY $SPX The next 12 months new ATH Then CRASH?AMEX:SPY CBOE:SPX The next 12 months ---------------------------------- It's looking like this rally is set to pullback before one final push higher to the 480 area to create a Double Top That's 5% higher from current levels plus whatever pullback we get now Then a CRASH📉 of at least 35% even more for the #NASDAQ SPY could go higher than 480 but I'm not seeing any institutional positioning above that yet and there is a whole lot stacking up below There's a lot of talk on here about crashes📉 and melt ups📈 but the bottom line they are all just opinions including mine Make decisions based on what price is doing and be prepared if things line up as I have laid out What do you think the market will do in the next 12 months?
AMEX:SPY
by SuperDaveG
2