BIDU: MAs coiling tightly + Double bottomI really like BIDU stock here, so I entered more than my usual size.
What I like about this setup
- MAs coiling super tightly across all timeframes. 10, 20, 50, 100, 200. Tight MAs represent volatility contraction and this often leads to volatility expansion, i.e. large price movements. All the MAs are now within 5% range. When the MAs crossover, its like this combo nuclear reaction igniting one another, propelling the stock upwards. And its possible you get a sustained one.
- 10 and 20 MA are already above 50MA. short term, we are up. And now I'm waiting for the next nuclear reaction to happen.
- We have attempted to break above this 94.5 key resistance for many times now. If we do, easily 113 as price target.
- Double bottom formation. Yes, its not a double bottom yet since it hasn't break above the neckline. But that false breakdown earlier gave me extra confidence that we have bottomed.
- Fibo retracement at 50% line now. Good support. (did not draw it in, else it becomes cluttered)
- Tailwind from China internet sector.
When will I stop loss
- Break below previous low at 96.8 and stay below 50MA for 5 days.
Others
- I note that Im front-running this a little. If it goes to 92.5 above the flag, and 200sma, it would be better confirmation. But I entered with options, so I wanted a better price before the pump actually happens.
Double Top or Bottom
BTC Potential Drop to $72K: 3 Signs Indicating a Trend BreatherBitcoin has been on an incredible run, but I believe we may be heading for a pullback toward $72K. There are three key signs that suggest a breather is due:
Double Top Formation – We've seen a clear double top pattern forming, signaling a potential reversal.
RSI Divergence – The RSI is showing divergence from price action, often a sign that the momentum is weakening.
Overbought Conditions – Bitcoin has been in overbought territory for a while now, suggesting that a correction could be on the horizon.
Keep an eye on these factors as they could play a big role in where BTC goes next. Stay cautious and be prepared for potential volatility.
I hope you find it helpful!
Take care and keep it shiny.
Kina ♥
$BTCUSD Expansion or Reversal? Key Levels to WatchBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Overview
We explore the key resistance and support levels, potential pattern formations, and what we should monitor in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin appears to be forming an expanding triangle within the broader range of its weekly fractals. Additionally, there is the potential emergence of a double top reversal pattern . This pattern has a critical support level at $89,164, which acts as a neckline. A breakdown below this support could threaten the weekly fractal support positioned at $91,530. If the breakdown confirms , Bitcoin may experience a significant decline, targeting the previously broken monthly fractal resistance at $73,794 , representing a potential 17% drop . This level coincides with the 200% Fibonacci extension, often seen as a default target for a double top reversal.
Despite the downside risks, a corrective move lower may provide a bullish setup. A key support level at $76,368 aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last bullish swing. A potential Bullish Deep Crab Pattern could form around this level, indicating a possible reversal. If Bitcoin reaches this zone, traders should monitor price reactions for signs of recovery.
Will Bitcoin break higher, or is a deeper correction on the horizon? Stay tuned for further updates!
Key Takeaways
Weekly Fractal Resistance: $109,359
Weekly Fractal Support: $91,530
Daily Fractal Resistance: $98,871 (rejecting 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $98,314)
Daily Support: $93,340 (above weekly fractal support)
Critical Support Level: $89,164 (neckline for a potential double top)
Downside Target: $73,794 (previous monthly fractal resistance, aligning with 200% Fibonacci extension)
Bullish Reversal Zone: $76,368 (161.8% Fibonacci extension, potential Bullish Deep Crab Pattern)
It is important to remain neutral regarding bias unless the price confirms the pattern with a breakdown below the neckline. Until that happens, the market structure remains open to different scenarios, and traders should focus on confirmation signals rather than assumptions.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
Risk Warning: Trading financial assets carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. Make sure to fully understand the risks involved before you start trading and carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. The data and information provided in this content do not constitute financial or investment advice and should not be considered as such. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and be aware of the risks associated with trading financial assets.
Microchip Tech. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Microchip Tech. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast Summary
- Double Formation
* A+ Set Up)) At 99.00 USD | Subdivision 1
* ((No Trade)) & Bottom Structure | Invalid Pattern Confirmation
- Triple Formation
* (Continuation Argument)) | Retracement Area | Subdivision 2
* Numbered Retracement | Downtrend Set Up | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias))
* (Neutral Area)) At 53.00 USD
* Ongoing Entry & Channel Structure Feature
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Sell
BTCSUD: Expected increase of 5000 points.I have notified everyone to buy a large amount below 89000. Maybe we can see profits in a short period of time.
This time's buying is the biggest bottoming and the biggest rebound in recent months.
So cherish the opportunity,
BUY:88500-89000
sl86500
tp93000-95000
I will continue to announce the follow-up details in the analysis circle. Remember to refer to it to avoid missing the latest developments.
Dollar Index (DXY): Pullback From Resistance
I think we may see a local bearish continuation after a test
of a key daily/intraday resistance.
A local Change of Character on an hourly clearly shows the strength of the sellers.
The index may retrace at least to 106.53
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Need Bear's Help to Push BTC HigherOnce this breaks below the double top neckline, bears will be pushing this down, below the neckline EVERYONE has been talking about, but the true test will be when it retests the neckline, as resistance. If it fails, then this double top has an 18% drop ahead, but nothing would be better than ripping it higher as bears become net buyers in a short squeeze that may finally help us break out above top of range, or at least tag it!
The Kroger Co. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# The Kroger Co. Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Entry Bias Hypothesis)) | Completed Survey | Subdivision 1
* 1st Retracement | 1 Area & Entry Bias
- Triple Formation
* ABC Flat Feature | Support & Resistance Area | Subdivision 2
* 2nd Retracement Configuration | 0.618 Area | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias))
* (Neutral Area)) At 73.00 USD
* Ongoing Entry & Channel Mark Up
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
$NASDAQ:AISP breaking resistance for a 35%++ upsideNASDAQ:AISP broke it's double bottom pattern resistance with some upside potential.
Entry Point: At the current price OR (as I suspect there will be a retest of the $6 resistance) somewhere around $6
Price Target: $8.14 - 35% from the $6 resistance.
LONG ON USOILOil is currently rising from a major demand zone.
It has broken out of a nice double/triple bottom and a downtrend line.
I expect price to tap into the demand zone as a pullback from its recent break of a high and then continue to rise.
I am buying oil and expecting it to rise to the next supply level for just about 200 pips or a $2 move on.
EURUSD DUMP Easily anticipating a lock for high of week. If not, I will cove to .055
Rapid 1.2.3 (i) (ii) (iii) on Monday's open running straight to previous week highs before bearish ChoCh, BOS and change in market structure.
LO premarket move anticipating to control risk with SL to BE targeting equilibrium or 50% retracement to open the week
***Unfortunately price is currently trading above VWAP. A strong high volume move across is required to validate the move***
-YungEmsi
CHFJPY: Pullback From Support 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY looks bullish after a test of a key horizontal support.
As a confirmation, I identified a double bottom pattern
on an hourly.
Its neckline was violated with the market opening today.
I believe that the pair will continue rising at least to 167.0 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
GBP/NZD - 1H Analysis & Prediction📉 GBP/NZD - 1H Analysis & Prediction
🔹 Key Market Structure & Levels:
✅ Choch (Change of Character) & BOS (Break of Structure) confirm bearish sentiment.
✅ Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the supply zone indicates potential rejection.
✅ Demand Zones:
2.18352 - 2.18687 (Potential reaction area)
2.16800 - 2.17231 (Stronger demand zone)
📌 Scenarios to Watch:
1️⃣ Bearish Move Before Reversal:
Price might reject from the FVG zone and drop towards the 2.18352 - 2.18687 zone.
If it breaks below, expect further downside to 2.16800 - 2.17231 before a potential bullish move.
2️⃣ Bullish Move to 2.21504:
If price reacts from the demand zone, it may push towards 2.21504, a key liquidity target.
Watch for a bullish confirmation after tapping the demand zone.
💡 Trading Plan:
✅ Look for short entries around the FVG zone.
✅ Monitor bullish price action at 2.18352 - 2.18687 for potential long positions.
✅ If price sweeps 2.16800 - 2.17231, expect a strong reversal to the upside.
#FXFOREVER #GBPNZD #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #ForexTrading #PriceAction
NATGAS Short Squeeze on the Cards? NATURAL GAS – INTEGRATED PREMIUM TRADING/INVESTMENT REPORT
(All data current as of Feb 21, 2025, unless otherwise noted. No major updates post-Feb 21. Any contradictory signals are flagged in context.)
1) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Natural Gas (NG) has shifted into a bullish structure on higher timeframes after a prolonged 2022 downtrend. Macro indicators suggest that while U.S. gas storage is somewhat below the five-year average, Europe’s inventories remain comfortable due to strong LNG inflows. On the positioning side, hedge funds are still net short, yet price has rallied significantly off sub-$2.00 levels—a textbook setup for a potential short squeeze.
Technically, NG shows a weekly uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, supported by strong momentum (price above long-term moving averages and Ichimoku Cloud). Lower timeframes (daily, 4H) remain bullish but reveal short-term consolidation around the 4.50–4.57 resistance zone. The biggest “conflict flag” is the gap between stubbornly high short interest and ongoing price strength.
Bullish Arguments
• Confirmed uptrend on weekly and daily charts
• Price trading above major SMAs and Ichimoku cloud levels
• Potential for a short squeeze if large net shorts unwind
Bearish/Contradictory Arguments
• Significant hedge-fund net shorts persist
• Mild European winter and stable US production could cap demand-driven spikes
• Price nearing technical resistance around 4.50–4.57
2) MACRO & MARKET SENTIMENT OVERVIEW
Global Macro Context
• US Storage: Most recent data showed weekly withdrawals leaving storage levels roughly 5% below the five-year average.
• Europe: EU gas inventories remain higher than typical for this time of year, thanks to increased LNG imports. That limits immediate winter crisis worries but does not fully remove upside price risks in case of abrupt cold or supply disruption.
• Speculative Positioning: Money managers continue to hold net short positions, indicating a degree of skepticism about sustaining higher prices. Still, the spot market has climbed off its lows significantly since early 2023, underscoring potential volatility if shorts unwind.
Conflict Flag: Persistent short positioning vs. a rising price environment suggests an unstable equilibrium—either further short covering fuels a continued move higher or renewed selling pushes NG lower if bullish catalysts fade.
3) ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Below are key dates/events over the next 1–2 weeks that could shape Natural Gas price action:
Date Event Potential Impact
Wed (Weekly) EIA Petroleum Status Report Can affect overall energy sentiment, though more relevant for crude. Minor spillover to NG possible.
Thu (Weekly) EIA Natural Gas Storage Report A surprise in weekly storage data can trigger strong NG moves.
Feb 29 (Fri) China PMI (February) Strong manufacturing may support global LNG demand; weak data might weigh on energy complex.
Next 1–2 Weeks Unscheduled OPEC+ or Russia updates Any disruption or policy shift in global energy markets can indirectly impact gas sentiment.
All references are based on last known data as of Feb 21. If these dates pass without new surprises, the market may focus on other factors such as weather or any unexpected LNG facility outages.
4) TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Weekly Timeframe
• Market Structure: Transition from 2022’s downtrend to clear higher highs/lows in 2023. Price is above the 10, 50, 100, and 200-week SMAs.
• Ichimoku: Price is above the weekly cloud, with a bullish Tenkan–Kijun cross.
• Momentum: RSI near 70 (approaching overbought), MACD strongly positive, ADX around mid-30s indicating a strengthening trend.
• Key Weekly Support: ~3.00–3.30, a major pivot where strong accumulation previously took place.
• Key Weekly Resistance: ~4.50–5.00, historical supply blocks from the 2022 sell-off.
Daily Timeframe
• Trend: Continues forming higher highs/lows, price remains above all daily SMAs.
• Indicators: RSI around 60–65 (positive), MACD above zero, Bollinger upper band near 4.50.
• Support Levels: 4.00–4.10 (key pivot and volume cluster), 3.60–3.70 (bullish order block).
• Resistance: 4.50–4.57 area (recent swing high, Bollinger upper band).
4H & Intraday
• Short-Term Structure: Still bullish, though momentum has cooled below ~4.57.
• Momentum Indicators: 4H MACD rolling over near zero, RSI near 59–65.
• Key Intraday Levels:
• Support ~4.13–4.15 (recent local low). Below 4.00 would signal deeper pullback potential.
• Resistance ~4.50–4.57 (local supply).
No new price or indicator updates beyond Feb 21. Any significant market move after that date is not reflected in these technicals.
5) KEY LEVELS & CONFLUENCE
• Major Weekly Support: 3.00–3.30
• Daily/Intermediate Support: 3.60–3.70, 4.00–4.10
• Near-Term Support: ~4.13–4.15 intraday pivot
• Resistance: 4.50–4.57 overhead; if cleared, 5.00 becomes the next psychological barrier
Fibonacci extensions from the rally low (~1.90) point to 4.23–4.30 (already tested) and ~5.00 as a further extension if momentum continues.
6) TRADE SCENARIOS & FRAMEWORK
Bullish Scenarios
1. Aggressive (High Risk)
• Entry: Near 4.13–4.15 or a dip that reclaims 4.10 on short-term charts.
• Stop: Tight, below 4.00–4.05.
• Targets: 4.50–4.57 (T1), then 4.70–5.00 (T2).
• Rationale: Quick bounce play, potential short squeeze continuation.
• Risk: High whipsaw risk if support fails.
2. Moderate Risk
• Entry: 4H close above ~4.20–4.25, confirming renewed upside momentum.
• Stop: Below 4.00.
• Targets: Same T1 and T2.
• Rationale: Waits for short-term structure to turn clearly bullish again.
3. Conservative
• Entry: 4H or daily close above 4.45–4.50.
• Stop: Wider, below ~4.00.
• Targets: 4.57 (T1) then 5.00 (T2).
• Rationale: Ensures resistance is cleared, aligning with the dominant uptrend.
Invalidation: A decisive close below 4.00 on strong volume would undermine the bullish outlook.
Bearish Scenarios (Deeper Correction)
1. Aggressive (High Risk)
• Entry: Breakdown under 4.13 or a rejection at 4.40–4.45.
• Stop: Above 4.50.
• Targets: 4.00 (T1), 3.70–3.60 (T2).
• Rationale: Catch a short-term reversal if momentum stalls.
• Risk: Countertrend trade in a larger bullish market.
2. Moderate Risk
• Entry: 4H close below 4.13, confirming short-term structure break.
• Stop: Above 4.50.
• Targets: 4.00, then 3.70–3.60 if deeper selling unfolds.
3. Conservative
• Entry: Daily close under 4.00.
• Stop: Above 4.40–4.50.
• Targets: 3.70–3.60, potentially more if weekly uptrend truly unravels.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 4.50 on a closing basis would negate the bearish thesis and likely resume the broader uptrend.
7) RISK MANAGEMENT
• Volatility (ATR): Weekly ATR ~0.44, daily ATR ~0.25. NG can move swiftly, so calibrate stops and position sizes accordingly.
• Position Sizing: Consider risking only 1–2% of trading capital per trade, scaling out at interim targets.
• Data/Events: The EIA Natural Gas Storage report each Thursday often sparks volatility. Unexpected weather or LNG facility disruptions can also move prices quickly.
• Conflict Flags: Large net shorts in futures vs. rising spot price. Keep watch if short covering intensifies or if fresh sellers step in.
8) CONCLUSION & ACTION STEPS
• If price sustains above 4.00–4.10 and we see momentum pick up (e.g., a 4H close >4.25), then a retest of 4.50–4.57 is likely, and possibly up to 5.00 on a breakout.
• If price drops below 4.00 (especially on a daily close), then expect deeper pullbacks toward 3.70–3.60.
• Keep an eye on the weekly EIA data release and any abrupt weather or geopolitical shifts.
• Use prudent stops: Natural Gas is inherently volatile, so a balanced approach to position sizing and partial profit-taking is advisable.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. All trading carries risk—exercise caution, maintain adequate stops, and stay updated on real-time market developments.
Embraer S.A. Stock Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Embraer S.A. Stock Quote
- Double Formation
* (Uptrend Argument)) | Completed Survey | Subdivision 1
* (Area Of Value)) At 36.00 USD | Bottom Structure
- Triple Formation
* ABC Flat Feature & Potential Entry | Subdivision 2
* 1st Retracement Configuration | 0.5 Area | Subdivision 3
* Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias))
* (Long Condition)) At 50.00 USD
* Ongoing Entry & Channel Feature
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
Oscar health triple bottomThis stock looks bottomed out here, many touch points along the point of interest. We noted a bearish downfall of momentum and volatility. This has passed and it looks like we have a pivot here. RSI is rising alongside a falling price, this is divergence. Often times trend lines and patterns work out better on indicators than actual price action.
My plan:
I am slowly buying low risk LEAPS 35$ strike for Jan. This keeps my capital allocation low but my upside tremendous due to potential delta expansion
CAD/JPY: Potential Reversal as Buyers Step InCAD/JPY has shown signs of exhaustion in its bearish momentum after completing a deep Bat harmonic pattern. The pair has reached a key Fibonacci extension zone, where price action suggests a possible reversal.
Bullish interest is evident with price stabilising near the 105.50 level, supported by oversold conditions on momentum indicators. If buyers sustain pressure, a corrective move towards 106.50 and potentially 107.18 could unfold. Confirmation through a breakout of local resistance would further validate a bullish recovery scenario.
TSLA Short - IntradayWith bearish indices, and displacement in TSLA on H4 time frame the narrative was bearish sentiment from that point of interest. As soon as I saw rejection from the POI, I waited for confirmation of my setup in the 15m and entry on the 5m, with 1: 3.3 risk to reward. The RR target was based on the sell stops resting below creating liquidity with Previous Day Low and Sellside Liquidity.