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Dovish

GBPCHF TRIPLE TOPPrice is in the motion of forming a high probable triple top if we do see price continue bearish. This pair is definitely showing us a seller market therefore it is in our best interested to follow this trend. Calculating targets if entering this market after it breaks support, we grab our data from support to resistance and use it as our potential target which leads us to our next level of support. What invalidates this trade? Price breaking above Resistance, Breaking Higher Highs. Potentially can find a long opportunity if so.
Short
by RiosTrades
GBPCAD BREAKOUTAfter price respected this very nice bullish trend line, the Pound/Canadian ended with a breakout of that trend. I'm interested in price breaking below support and possibly shorting the pull back into previous structure because if we look left of where price is at right now, we see very key levels of resistance which makes this a key swap level. Price turning from Resistance to Support and vice versa, why are these levels important? Because they show respected historical data which leads us to believe price is very strong if it does break these levels of structure so price action must have the same momentum to continue shorting if price does break below.
Short
by RiosTrades
EURO LONG NOW OR NEVERLooking at the monthly EUR/USD chart the confluences are more so evident. The Stochastic Oscillator showing divergence of the lows. Price currently sitting just below the 61.8% Fib retracement, You can see the ascending channel beginning to form with our 1.3900 handle target being confluent with channel resistance and the D2 Fibonacci extension -61.8% respectively. I want a monthly close on Wednesday after the rate decision above the 6 month EMA and above the 1.1300 handle to confirm the start of the next leg up. This will also couple with a EURO Long summer rally. X MARKS THE SPOT
Long
by zenithmarkets
KIWI Too OVERVALUED Vs The USD! Will it Slump To 64 cents ?With the RBNZ already killing off the NZD by being more dovish than expected in their rate announcement yesterday, the kiwi fell against the USD overnight erasing in the process nearly 2 weeks gains!. For what many thought that the triangle has already broken to the upside just by the end of last week, it now seems it was a false breakout and rather unsurprisingly its now threatening to break the trendline of the triangle! If the break does occur, the price will aim to test the area that had been tested before in the previous swing some few months ago. 0.64000 becomes the immediate target of this potential breakout! Moreover fundamentally, the kiwi is too overvalued against the USD which is also visible in the both of their interest rates with USD having a more higher interest rate. This year the kiwi is being speculated to depreciate against the USD and this might start to happen once the trendline is broken. adding salt to the wounds, the RBNZ might even cut OCR in their nexr meeting which may very well trigger a small rally enough to dump the NZD and pile the selling pressure. The RR on this one is pretty good too (1:1.5). i am already SHORTING the NZDUSD but from the technical perspective its best to wait until the trendline breaks and retests before making an entry. this is just my analysis on this pair and its not a trading signal. shall the criteria meet i will post the trade details in the thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Is it a bird? Is it a plane? is it a channel!?Are we just bouncing off walls here? It seems like we might be... Other convincing ideas here () suggest this is the end of a regression at the .618 fib following the bullish run from the start of 2017. I like it either way you cut it. However we look, after quite a predictable and profitable short position before the heavy sell-offs yesterday we find the market rallying north. I for one am taking some profits at the halfway line but if we keep breaking through resistance levels with such convincing aplomb I might try and ride the waves all the way to the channel's edge. Now wouldn't that be nice. Key US data today has helped a couple of big upticks. EU 'dovishness' and unexpected TLTRO reports in the commentary yesterday has also had a convincing effect which may be amplifying technical analysis, but it is unlikely to be masking it altogether given the continued trends.
Long
by Adamonics
Long USDCAD Trading PlanUSD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar CAD Bearish Rationale : 1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is not in the price yet hence plenty more to the downside for CAD Factors could invalidate the trading plan : 1. Any positive development in the oil market (Oil Rally is generally supportive to the CAD) 2. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Building Permit numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 1.7%, Prior : 3.8%) - Predicted Surprise : 1.60% (Reuters Poll) 3. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Ivey PMI numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 62.7, Prior : 63.8) 4. USD - Negative (Actual > Expected) Initial Job Claims Numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 240k, Prior : 238k) - Reuters SmartEstimate (C) : 237.4k Levels to trade : A : If price breaks and close above 128.100, I will Long the pair as long as I have the minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio. The target price rationale are : a) it is within the average daily range b) psychological level (i.e 00s) c) B : I will not rule out a correction towards the daily pivot. In the event of this happening, I will look for technical reason to Long this pair. The target price rationale are : it is within the average daily range b) It is potentially today's high
Long
by sufiansaid
USDCAD Bank Of Canada Rate - REVIEWSo BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish enough. I looked at the chart price have moved considerably high as well, but based on my research events like this tend to hit 100-120 pips. So i took a "scalping" trade and made a target at 1.2800. I made 2% from this trade. *I apologize for the written mistakes I made in my CAD trading plans.
by sufiansaid
2
Eur/Gbp getting exhausted (Short)-We're getting to the top of long-term range -Jackson Hole conference at the end of this week will host both Yellen and Draghi -Draghi will IMO be dovish to smaller or higher extend as per his latest comments of Euro "overshooting in repricing by financial markets" -Other circumstances indicate he wont be hawkish (no QE tapering for now -Will enter the trade as soon as market opens -"Sources familiar with the matter" said that Draghi will not deliver no new policy message at Jackson Hole -North Korea might spew out some aggressive headlines since there will be joint military drills in Japan (US and Japanese forces) - this might weight in to this pair as well Cheers
Short
by Chuck-Norris
1
USD/JPY IDEA- Something to consider after Yellen statement. Couple scenarios to consider here depending on the tone and remarks made by Yellen regarding monetary policy. Currently USD has been moving up but the move will only continue if Fed chair Yellen reinforces her comments made 2 weeks ago when they decided to raise rates again and stated they were still on track and serious about another rate hike in 2017 either in September or most likely December even though the economic data has not supported this. I would expect her to repeat these kinds of hawkish comments that would keep USD on the rise, however if she decides to change course and takes back what she said 2 weeks ago and makes more dovish statements raising rates only when economic data supports it USD could take a big hit as the data hasn't been great.
by nick.trader4
SHORT DXY/ USD: BRAINARD FAILS TO TOW THE HAWK LINE (SPEECH)*Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just raise rates. You don't want to be behind the eight ball on this one, and I think it's time to raise rates.". Likely to have little effect on the overall decision and hawks imo are a lost cause here, eyeing the 20% of hikes priced into USD downside seems much more realistic than speculating on the tail-end possibility that the Fed rise rates. As posted earlier I maintain my view that $yen shorts above 100 are valid, and GBPUSD longs to 1.34/5 also fall in line and will likely be reached on a fed no hike. Cross asset wise I still maintain my broad view of SPX towards 2000 and gold towards 1400. I think DXY has 92 potential on a fed no hike. On the note, Fed funds have sold off somewhat from 24% implied sept hike to 15% presently, this has helped buoy risk markets with SPX up 0.7% and nasdaq outperforming up 1.28%. Brainard speech highlights: Fed's Brainard: Case to Tighten Policy Preemptively Is Less Compelling Brainard: Effect on Inflation of Further Labor Market Gains Likely To Be Moderate, Gradual Brainard: Natural Rate of Unemployment Could Move Even Lower Brainard: More Concerned About Undershooting Than Overshooting on Inflation Brainard: Phillips Curve Appears Flatter Today Than Previously Brainard: Asymmetry in Risk Management Counsels Prudence in Removing Policy Accommodation Brainard: Japan, Eurozone Experience Suggests Prolonged Weakness in Demand Very Difficult to Correct Brainard: Labor Market Developments May Imply Room for Further Improvement Brainard: Progress Toward Full Employment Likely to be Somewhat Gradual Brainard: Raising Inflation Target, Nominal Income Target, Negative Rates Merit Further Study Brainard: Better to Tilt Policy Against Downside Risks Than to Raise Rates Preemptively Brainard: Low Neutral Rate Means Current Policy Rate Less Accommodative Than Previously Brainard: Chinese Growth Likely to Continue to Slow, Downshift Could Pose Risks Brainard: Disinflation Pressure, Weak Foreign Demand Likely to Weigh On Outlook Brainard: Spillover from Adverse Foreign Shocks More Powerful Than Previously Brainard: Japan Example Highlights Risk of Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Environment Brainard: Fed Policy Should Minimize Risk of U.S. Slipping Into Such a Situation Brainard: US Should Avoid Situation of 'Trapped' Japan, Eurozone Fed's Brainard: May Be Additional Slack In Labor Market Brainard: Given Low Inflation Pressure, There Is Space To Continue Reducing Slack Brainard: Still Room For Drawing Prime-Age Labor Force Back To Work
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
SHORT DXY/ USD: BRAINARD FAILS TO TOW THE HAWK LINE (SPEECH)Voting member Lael Brainard maintained her mildly dovish stance, with the headline quotye being "case to tighten policy preemptively is less compelling" perhaps the most indicative of the dovish sentiment. The rest of the comments remained neutral-downbeat and didnt echo JPM's CEO's comments of "A 25-basis-point increase is a drop in the bucket," and Let's just raise rates. You don't want to be behind the eight ball on this one, and I think it's time to raise rates.". Likely to have little effect on the overall decision and hawks imo are a lost cause here, eyeing the 20% of hikes priced into USD downside seems much more realistic than speculating on the tail-end possibility that the Fed rise rates. As posted earlier I maintain my view that $yen shorts above 100 are valid, and GBPUSD longs to 1.34/5 also fall in line and will likely be reached on a fed no hike. Cross asset wise I still maintain my broad view of SPX towards 2000 and gold towards 1400. I think DXY has 92 potential on a fed no hike. On the note, Fed funds have sold off somewhat from 24% implied sept hike to 15% presently, this has helped buoy risk markets with SPX up 0.7% and nasdaq outperforming up 1.28%. Brainard speech highlights: Fed's Brainard: Case to Tighten Policy Preemptively Is Less Compelling Brainard: Effect on Inflation of Further Labor Market Gains Likely To Be Moderate, Gradual Brainard: Natural Rate of Unemployment Could Move Even Lower Brainard: More Concerned About Undershooting Than Overshooting on Inflation Brainard: Phillips Curve Appears Flatter Today Than Previously Brainard: Asymmetry in Risk Management Counsels Prudence in Removing Policy Accommodation Brainard: Japan, Eurozone Experience Suggests Prolonged Weakness in Demand Very Difficult to Correct Brainard: Labor Market Developments May Imply Room for Further Improvement Brainard: Progress Toward Full Employment Likely to be Somewhat Gradual Brainard: Raising Inflation Target, Nominal Income Target, Negative Rates Merit Further Study Brainard: Better to Tilt Policy Against Downside Risks Than to Raise Rates Preemptively Brainard: Low Neutral Rate Means Current Policy Rate Less Accommodative Than Previously Brainard: Chinese Growth Likely to Continue to Slow, Downshift Could Pose Risks Brainard: Disinflation Pressure, Weak Foreign Demand Likely to Weigh On Outlook Brainard: Spillover from Adverse Foreign Shocks More Powerful Than Previously Brainard: Japan Example Highlights Risk of Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Environment Brainard: Fed Policy Should Minimize Risk of U.S. Slipping Into Such a Situation Brainard: US Should Avoid Situation of 'Trapped' Japan, Eurozone -- Market Talk
NASDAQ:METAShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
SHORT-TERM BULLISH GOLD AFTER HAMER CANDLEWith lousy and direction-less equity markets today - Europe rollercoaster, US hibernating - let's take a look at Gold. The precious metal yielded a near-perfect bullish hammer candle today. I usually like to see those at the end of a longer downtrend, but would never want to ignore a hammer, when I see one. My longer-term technical work suggests a fresh bull cycle for commodities and Gold, and with that in mind, today's hammer becomes more interesting. Fundamentally, is this is a hint at dovish Yellen in Jackson Hole? Let's see... Targets: 1374 Stop level: 1332/31
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by gorillacharts
NZDUSD: RBNZ MONPOL DECISION PREVIEW - BOE OR RBA STYLE?RBNZ Monetary Policy Decision : 1. At 22:00GMT the RBNZ are expected to cut their OCR rate to 2% from 2.25% (25bps), further they will release their monpol statement and rate statement then too - with RBNZ Gov Wheeler speaking 1hr after the release. 2. The are a number of outcomes which are likely to or not to affect the NZD$ market, I will list the combinations below from the very LHS/ Dovish to the more mild and RHS- Combination of outcomes - assuming the 25bps cut is certain as it is priced 100% into kiwi rates markets: 1. LHS NZD$ response fall to 0.690-0.681 - a 50bps rate cut, dovish statements and offering strong easing biased forward guidance e.g. hinting at further cuts likely, possible QE, other alternative measures being taken if kiwi persists strong - and Gov Wheeler Reiterates this dovish and highly committed sentiment in his speech.. - BOE and Gov Carney speech last week is a good illustration of a LHS response, very strong commitment to future easing - despite denying negative rates (housing market sentiment could be the equivalent here) 2. Average NZD$ response fall to 0.710 on the day - a 25bps rate cut, some weak references to future monpol - Wheeler fails to convince the market anything new will be coming 3. RHS NZD$ response = stable at market, then whipsaw higher to 0.73 on the day as investors flock to the highest G10 carry - a 25bps cut, no references to more easing and a theme of conplacency - Wheeler is neutral and perhaps makes mention to the housing environment limiting the RBNZ's hand with future easing. - RBA's rate cut and SOMP last week and Gov Stevens speech yesterday is a good example of a RHS rate cut and neutral statement/ Speech - offering no forward guidance on policy, no hits at future easing conventional or otherwise - where we have seen AUD$ move 200pips higher despite the cut My Opinion on the most likely outcome: 1. Assuming the RBNZ have seen the very bullish AUD reaction to this weeks WEAK rate cut by the RBA/ Stevens (as discussed above) and the RBNZ has also seen the bearish reaction of the market towards BOE/ Carney's reaction to their aggressively dovish statement, speech and policy measures (e.g. cut and 60bn in QE); - And assuming the RBNZ have seen Kiwi's strength (or USD weakness) and the high levels/ bullish sentiment kiwi is going in at into this monpol decision, which is particularly important now since the RBNZ's emergency economic assessment which stated that they didnt appreciate the strong kiwi$ and would like to bring it down. - These two factors in mind, plus the fact kiwi data has remained weak and RBNZ at even 2% after a 25bps cut is still the highest yield currency by a massive 50bps in G10 (AUD at 1.5%), so thinking of these 4 elements which are all very dominant calls for dovish/ 50bps cut policy It makes sense to think that the RBNZ will be skewed to delivering a very dovish/ LHS monpol package and a BOE M. Carney like speech by Gov Wheeler, especially since the House inflation issue has been discussed and macroprudential policies are set to be put in place in september to try and curb this issue where of past this has been a hawkish limitation on the RBNZ's will to be dovish and ease more. - However, guessing central banks this year has been tricky (BOJ in mind) so there is no certainty, and also there are some worrys over the RBNZs ability to cut 50bps at once - despite the need for it as a 25bps cut leaves a 50bps differential between AUD and NZD which will continue to cause deflationairy pressure and bullish NZD as investors flock to kiwi over the close partner Aussie - given this the RBNZ should be even more inclined to cutting the 50bps so that their ccy isnt used as the "carry ccy". There has been several calls by sell-side houses for a 50bps cut, but as above only time will tell.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3