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DOW JONES: High volatility but clear picture long term.Dow Jones turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.021, MACD = -1063.380, ADX = 32.380) as it is correcting brutally yesterday's gains on uncertainty regarding the 90-day pause of tariffs. We can't overlook however the fact that yesterday's rebound happened on the 1W MA200 and at the bottom (HL) of the Bullish Megaphone. The very same sequence of events unfolded during the last big U.S.-China trade war that bottomed in December 2018. First a Channel Down bottomed on the 1W MA200 and started the Bullish Megaphone that bottomed on the 2018 trade war. Both trade war corrections were -19% and if what follows replicates the 2019 rise, then we are up for a +35% rally. Potential TP = 49,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DJILong
by InvestingScope
DOW 104% TARIFFS on China activated. Can the market be saved?Dow Jones (DJIA) is almost on its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and earlier today President Trump activated 104% duties on Chinese imports. This is far from being an encouraging development especially after Monday's attempt for the market to recover. Most of the gains were lost yesterday and today it is a wait-and-see game in anticipation of the market reaction on the opening bell of Wall Street. From a long-term technical perspective however, Dow is on a huge buy level that we've only seen another 4 times since the Housing Bubble bottom in March 2009. That buy level consists of two conditions: price touching the 1W MA200 and the 1W RSI hits (or comes extremely close to) the 30.00 oversold limit. As you can see that has happened last time on September 19 2022 (Inflation Crisis bottom), March 09 2020 (COVID crash), August 24 2015 (China slowdown, Grexit) and August 08 2011 (first correction since 2009 Housing Crisis). The situation most similar to the current, is the COVID crash as it was the fastest drop to the 1W MA200 and 1W RSI to 30.00. Despite the brutal correction, it took the market 'only' 43 weeks (301 days) to reach again the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. That is the top of the Blue Zone of the Fibonacci Channel Up that started on the March 2009 Housing bottom. The Blue Zone, consisting of the 0.786 - 0.382 Fib range, is important as it has dominated the multi-year bullish trend and contained the price action inside it, with only a few occasions diverging outside of it. The longest it took Dow to reach the 0.786 Fib again after such correction was 110 weeks (770 days) and that interestingly enough happened two out of the four times. Practically reaching the 0.786 Fib constitutes a Cycle Top. So essentially, despite the uncertainty and panic, the market is technically on a Support level that in 16 years we've only seen another 4 times, that's once every 4 years, which is a fair sample of a Cycle size. As a result, assuming stability comes to the world through trade deals (and why not Rate Cut announcements), we may see Dow reaching its 0.786 Fib again (and make new ATH) the fastest by February 02 2026, hitting 49000 and the longest by May 17 2027, hitting 56000 roughly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
1
Party's OverDow Futures daily forming a downwards channel with price targets potentially down to 34k and 31k. These drops would be about 20-40% which is considered a true market crash. The falling wedge pattern plays out until potentially June of 2027, but wedges from the top of the range are dangerous as they can turn into bull traps. - Economic fundamentals have been disconnected from the financial system for some time but as the underlying economy begins to falter (ex. unemployment wave) markets begin to price in data such as falling retail sales. - President Trump is going through with mass layoffs in the Federal Government which creates unemployment as the private sector has been going through layoffs and has halted actual new hiring since 2023. - As more traders have become accustomed to "bad news is good news," they will most likely be wiped out trying to buy dips or chase false breakouts doing what they have always done. - Tariffs regionalize trade which make global economies and supply chains less interconnected. A global economy that is also very levered up on USD denominated debt needs dollar liquidity to continue to function. By regionalizing trade that liquidity is starved which can lead to financial problems on a global scale if not handled carefully. - Markets are likely to price in these risks over the next 2-3 months leading asset prices and interest rates lower. Expect individual companies to do well at times but then rotate to others while the Dow index itself falls. - Even if the Dow were to play out the wedge during 2026, without significant improvements to the global financial system expect that move to be a bull trap or a best lead to minimal gains without a new wave of monetary inflation.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by CrashoutCapital
1
DOW JONES Will the 1week MA200 save the day?Dow Jones / US30 almost reached its 1week MA200 today and immediately rebounded. Last time it approached it so closely was on October 23rd 2023 and last it crossed under it was September 19th 2022. The most recent was the first higher low of the 3 year Channel Up and the latter was the bottom of the last bear market. The 1week RSI hasn't been this low since June 13th 2022, which was again a near 1week MA200 test that caused an immediate rebound to the 1week MA50 before the rejection to the eventual bear market bottom. As long as the 1week MA200 holds and closes the candles over it, we expect the Channel Up to start a near bullish wave like post October 2023. Target 45200 (same as the March 2024 rally) which is around the All Time High. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
1
DOW JONES You will regret not taking this buyDow Jones / US30 remains under heavy selling pressure as it has been yet again rejected under the 1week MA50, failing to hold the closings over it of the past 3 candles. This is the strongest correction of the index since the September 26th 2022 bottom and the start of the Channel Up. Despite the negatives, the 1week RSI is almost on the 37.50 level, which is where the last higher low of the Channel Up was formed on October 23rd 2023, again under the 1week MA50. Obviously even though the downside may continue for a few more days, the extent is limited technically, especially since the worst of the tariffs have been priced and only new and more aggressive ones can inflict more non-technical fear on the market. This is a unique long term buy opportunity, the likes of which saw 2 rallies before of +21.10%. Even in the event of one more dip, a 48000 target towards the end of the year is very realistic. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
3
DOW JONES One break away from a rally back to 45000.Dow Jones (DJIA) got stopped on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the market paused ahead of today's tariffs implementation. This is the 2nd technical rejection since the March 13 bottom, the first being n the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) last Wednesday. This bottom is technically the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 1-year Bullish Megaphone pattern, and is very similar, both in 1D RSI and price terms, to the first one (April 19 - May 20 2024). As you can see, we are currently within the sane 0.5 - 0.786 Fib range, where the price consolidated before the eventual 4H MA200 bullish break-out. If it continues to replicate the 2024 Bullish Leg, then be ready for a straight Resistance test once the 4H MA200 breaks. Our Target is 45000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES: 4 week bottom on the 1W MA50. Best time to buy.Dow Jones turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.611, MACD = -297.980, ADX = 37.851) as it is recovering today and more importantly keeps its price action above the 1W MA50. This is the 4th straight week that it trades and holds the 1W MA50, which is shaping up to be the natural long term support. That is keeping the 1W RSI neutral (47.224), which technically suggets that it is the most low risk level to buy. The 1W RSI made a double bottom due to this consolidation and the 1W MACD printed the first light red bar, all of which are similar to the October 23rd 2023 bottom. Both have been bottoms after bearish waves of the 1.5 year Channel Up and as a matter of fact similar in decline rate (-9.50%). The highest probability level for a rebound and start of the new bullish wave is this, and based on the previous, it should aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 49,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES: Are you ready for what's coming?Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.157, MACD = -244.290, ADX = 38.724) as it is attempting to recover the 2 month correction. It appears that the bottom has already been made as not only did the price rebound on the LL trendline but it did so on an oversold 1D RSI. This draws comparisons to the last big such correction of Aug-Oct 2023, which also declined by more than -9.40%. They key there was the formation of a 4H Golden Cross. Right now the price is stuck inside the 4H MA50 - 4H MA200 range, so if it crosses now over the 4H MA200, it will most likely confirm the start of the new bullish wave as it will form a 4H Golden Cross. Technically it can achieve a similar price rally as then, so our thesis remains bullish aiming at the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 50,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES Last chance to buy before it breaks the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a 1.5 year Channel Up pattern since the July 2023 High. The market found itself under heavy pressure recently as the Channel unfolded its Bearish Leg which found Support right below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As the 1D RSI got oversold (<30.00) and rebounded, this is perhaps the last opportunity to buy low, before it breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on what is technically the new Bullish Leg. The previous Bullish Leg (November 2023 - March 2024) hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension on a +23.94% rise, before it broke below its 1D MA50 again. As a result, it is possible for Dow not to break again below its 1D MA50 once broken, before it reaches the 2.0 Fib which sits at 50000. Our Target is a little lower than that at 49000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
Promising Breakout Setup Ahead! Chart 1W CBOT_MINI:YM1! BLACKBULL:US30 Promising Breakout Setup Ahead! The chart highlights RSI and Williams %R trendline breakout plays. My strategy? Identify trendlines on the chart, monitor RSI and Williams %R, and target breakouts on these momentum indicators. Current Situation: All key signals have already triggered. Strong bullish seasonality Favorable COT data (small specs bearish, commercials bullish) Low open interest This setup aligns with high-probability breakout criteria. Chart Indicator SMA 1W 52 (red) SMA 1W 18 (green) Bottom Indicators WilVal Williams R% 9 length RSI 9 length Not Financial Advice for more questions ask in the comments or check my X @valuebuffet
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by FairValueBuffet
DOW JONES targeting 50000 on this final Bull yearDow Jones / US30 posted the first green weekly candle after hitting last week the 1week MA50. This is obviously a critical support level as it has been holding since the October 30th 2023 rebound. As this chart shows, Dow has been repeating the same patterns, Cycle after Cycle. Right now it has entered the Final Year of Bull, which is the part where it rises aggressively to form the Top before the new Bear begins in the form of a Megaphone pattern. The previous Bull peaked on the 2.382 Fibonacci extension of the Megaphone. This means that a 50000 Target for Dow is perfectly plausible by the end of 2025. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon
1
DOW JONES: MA50-100 Bearish Cross says we've bottomed.Dow Jones is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.171, MACD = -608.620, ADX = 62.568), rising aggressively since last week. Technically that was the bottom no just on the 8 month Channel Up but also on the LL trendline. We've seen the very same LL bottom on the October 2023 and March 2023 lows, all of which had oversold 1D RSIs. The 1D MA50-100 Bearish Cross marked those bottoms and today we've completed a new one. Technically the index can rise as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 49,000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES: Starting the final stage of 3year Bull Cycle.Dow Jones got oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.297, MACD = -550.130, ADX = 76.606) as it is currently testing its 1W MA50. This is a level that has been intact since November 2023 and is of high importance to the trend as it has a key cyclical attribute. The driving growth pattern of Dow since the 2009 bottom is a Channel Up and every time a Bull Cycle starts, the 1W MA50 is the first level of support, with every touch of it being the strongest buy opportunity. When the 3 year Bull Cycle is coming to an end, the 1W MA50 breaks and the index approaches the 1M MA50 during its Bear Cycle correction, which becomes the ultimate buy entry for the new long term 3 year Bull Cycle. The current Cycle should starts getting completed technically after September 2025, so there is a high chance that the 1W MA50 holds here. The three Bull Cycles we've had so far had a fairly similar growth percentage, rising by +70.38% to +76.64%. If the +70.38% minimum range is followed on the current (4th) Bull Cycle, then we're aiming at 48,000 (TP) towards the end of the year. The 1M CCI seems to be printing the exact same build up to the Bear Cycle as in the past. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DJILong
by InvestingScope
1
DOW JONES Can the 1W MA50 hold and spark an end-of-year rally?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the late July 2023 High. The decline of the last 30 days can be technically seen as the Bearish Leg that will price its new Higher Low bottom. The price isn't only close to the Channel's bottom but also the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been supporting since the October 30 2023 bullish break-out. As a result, a 1W MA50 hit will be a potential double support test, with the 1W RSI also printing a Bearish Leg similar to the one that led to the October 2023 bottom. On the other hand, the ranged price action since the late November 2024 High, resembles the sideways volatility of the first half of 2024. Both were initiated after Higher High pricings at the top of the Channel Up. The rallies that led to those tops have been +21.00% and +23.72% respectively. If there is a decreasing rate on each Bullish Leg, then the new one should be +17.30% (i.e. -3.30% less than the previous one), which falls marginally below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which is where the November 2024 High was priced. As a result, as long as Dow is closing its 1W candles above the 1W MA50, the 2-year Channel Up is more likely to push upwards again for its new Bullish Leg, potentially targeting 48900 (+17.30%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
DOW JONES MA200 (1d) test on the Channel Up bottom. BULLISH.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up but lately finds itself on a pull back. This pull back is about to test the MA200 (1d) at the bottom of the pattern. The MA200 (1d) has been holding as Support since November 3rd 2023, so overall that makes it a buy opportunity. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 46400 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is almost oversold and at 35.00 it has turned sideways. Every time the RSI was on this level or belowsince October 2023, it was the best buy opportunity. Please like, follow and comment!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
Digesting the US & Canada job numbers The numbers are out and, so far, the market is reacting logically. Let's dig in! NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AVGO NASDAQ:NVDA MARKETSCOM:GOLD MARKETSCOM:EURUSD MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX MARKETSCOM:USDCAD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom