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DOW JONES new Bull Cycle has started.Dow Jones / US30 has now crossed above its 1week MA50 and has restored the long term bullish trend. That trend was in risk of getting invalidated but last month's rebound at the bottom of the long term Channel Up and holding Support A, kickstarted the new Bull Cycle. Every Support A rebound inside this Channel Up technically started a new Bull Cycle. The less aggressive of those was +57.76%. This is where long term investors buy and target 57700. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
DOW JONES: Looks to extend gains to 43,500Dow Jone remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.492, MACD = 410.840, ADX = 32.007) as it maintains the medium term bullish trend inside its 1 month Channel Up. Since the index kept the 4H MA50 intact, it established it as its Support and is now halfway on the new bullish wave. The 2 prior rose by +4.30%, which gives a clear technical target (TP = 43,500)for the next HH. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
Dow ready to go above 200 MA?The Dow has been coiling for the past few days underneath its 200-day moving average, as it watched the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 break higher. But yesterday support at 41,780 held and this led to a strong bounce. The resulting price action created a hammer candle on the daily time frame. With this latest bull signal, can the index now break above its 200 MA and move higher? The underlying trend is looking increasingly bullish. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREXcom
Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for the Dow Jones Starting May 15, 2025 The Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price low from April 7, 2025 (~36,611.78), and possibly lower. This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline Fundamental factors provide the macroeconomic and policy-driven rationale for the anticipated downturn in the Dow Jones. 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy The Dow’s rally on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism over a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence is faltering due to a lack of progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks fail to deliver positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates tariff rhetoric, the Dow could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 5.5% single-day drop. The Dow, with its heavy weighting of multinational corporations, is particularly vulnerable to trade war fears, which could drive it toward the April 7 low as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, showed inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. However, the Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggests investors expected a lower figure to support Federal Reserve rate cuts, reflecting skepticism about inflation cooling further. Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, due at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is critical. A higher-than-expected PPI, potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures, could signal rising consumer prices, reducing hopes for Fed easing and triggering a sell-off. Consensus expects a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could echo the April market reaction when GDP contraction fears pushed the Dow to 36,611.78. Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, likely showed continued weakness (April: 52.2, a multi-year low). A further decline could heighten concerns about reduced consumer spending, impacting Dow components like Walmart and Home Depot. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies, with markets expecting 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, starting in July. If today’s PPI or Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) indicate persistent inflation or economic weakness, rate cut expectations could fade, increasing borrowing costs and pressuring Dow valuations, mirroring the April 7 recession fears. 2. Technical Analysis The Dow’s initial decline in April was approximately -19.00%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude. Technical indicators suggest a bearish setup for May 15, 2025: Current Level: The Dow closed at 42,051.06 on May 14, 2025, down 0.6%, testing support at 42,000. Bearish Signals: A 12-hour timeframe analysis indicates alignment for a decline, with potential bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing) and overbought RSI (70). A break below 42,000 could target the 200-day moving average (40,500) and the April 7 low of 36,611.78. Price Targets: Retest of April 7, 2025, low: ~36,611.78 Secondary target: ~35,970.70 (based on Fibonacci extensions and prior support zones). 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors Fragile Optimism: The Dow’s 15% recovery from April lows was driven by trade truce hopes and select stock strength. Bloomberg’s May 14, 2025, report notes Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade risks. The Dow’s May 14 weakness, led by an 18% UnitedHealth drop, could spread if negative news emerges today. Global Correlation: Mixed Asian market performance on May 14 (e.g., Nikkei up 1.43%, India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%) suggests vulnerability. A lower Asian open on May 15, driven by U.S. declines or trade news, could amplify selling pressure on the Dow. 4. Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A PPI reading above 0.3% could signal sticky inflation, reducing Fed rate cut odds and sparking a sell-off. Trade Talk Updates: Negative U.S.-China trade comments (e.g., no Geneva deal) could reignite fears, mirroring April 7. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Claims above 220,000 (vs. prior 211,000) could signal labor market weakness, fueling recession concerns. 4.2. Dow Scenario Expect a wave-like decline with corrections. The Dow could fall below 36,611.78, potentially reaching ~35,970.70 if trade and economic pressures intensify. Extreme caution is advised in 2025. 4.3. Global Scenario for S&P 500 I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: New Screenshot: 4.4. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel Brent (UKOIL): Natural Gas:
TVC:DJIShort
by SergioRichi
DOW JONES History shows that we're now targeting 68000.Dow Jones (DJI) recovered its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), sending a clear technical message that the 'Trade War' correction is over and the long-term bullish trend has been resumed. The bottom of that correction was on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the absolute long-term Support trend-line for the index, having broken by a large extent only during the March 2020 COVID crash. That was also a bottom for Dow's Bullish Megaphone pattern. The last time that the index handed a 1W MA200 bottom while trading within a Bullish Megaphone was on February 08 2016. On both bottoms, the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold barrier. In 2016 that bottom rebound initiated a (blue) Channel Up that lasted for almost 2 years and peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level. If Dow continues to replicate that pattern, we are looking at a 68000 Target (Fib 3.0 ext) by mid-2027. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
1
Trade Idea: US30 Long (BUY LIMIT)Justification: Technical Analysis: 1. Daily Chart: • Strong bullish reversal from recent lows. • MACD is crossing up sharply, showing fresh bullish momentum. • RSI at 62.33 — rising but not yet overbought (room to run). • Price reclaiming key moving averages. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • Clear uptrend continuation. • MACD and RSI confirm bullish momentum. • Price consolidating at recent highs — potential breakout formation. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • Short-term consolidation near highs with low RSI (38.84) — possible dip-buy opportunity. • MACD near zero — primed for a new short-term wave. Fundamental Analysis (as of early May 2025 context): • Likely market optimism surrounding softer inflation data and potential rate cuts. • Dow components (industrials, financials) benefit from economic soft-landing expectations. • VIX (if tracked) remains subdued, confirming risk-on sentiment. ⸻ Trade Plan (Long): • Entry: 42,360 Near current consolidation zone on lower timeframes. • Stop Loss (SL): 41,850 Below recent swing lows and key moving average support (approx. 510 pts risk). • Take Profit (TP): 43,380 Targeting previous resistance area on the Daily chart (approx. 1020 pts reward). FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
DOW JONES: Breached the 1D MA200. Tariff War 2018 Recovery aheadDow Jones is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.103, MACD = 203.720, ADX = 34.693) and as it crossed today above the 1D MA200 for the first time since April 2nd, and practically validates the recovery from the Tariff War correction, it draws strong comparisons with the last U.S.-China Tariff War in 2018. Both rebounded after highly oversold 1D RSI levels, and the 2019 recovery almost hit the 0.9 Fibonacci level before turning into a less aggressive recovery. The trade is long, TP = 44,100. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
1
Dow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key DriversDow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key Drivers Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is under pressure and likely headed for a correction due to the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, trade uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs, and weak economic data. Key Drivers: ➖ Federal Reserve Policy: At the May 6–7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain the 4.25–4.5% interest rate due to persistent inflation (2.7% forecast for 2025) and a robust labor market (+177K jobs in April). This dampens hopes for rate cuts, pressuring stocks. ➖ Trump’s Tariffs: New tariffs raise inflation risks and recession fears, reducing the appeal of Dow Jones constituents like Caterpillar and Walmart. ➖ Weak GDP and Global Volatility: A 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and declines in Asian markets (1.6–1.8%) signal global instability. ➖ Technical Indicators: DIA trades below its 200-day moving average (~420 USD), with fewer stocks above this level (down from 76% to 55% since January), indicating market weakness. ➖ Outlook: Analysts (Long Forecast) predict volatility, with a potential drop to 38,958 in May, despite an average forecast of 43,370 by month-end. Historically, corrections occur every 1.88 years, and current conditions (tariffs, inflation, GDP) heighten the likelihood of a 10–15% decline. Target: My downside target for the Dow Jones is 38,555.00. Current factors and historical trends strongly suggest a near-term correction. Idea for S&P 500:
TVC:DJIShort
by SergioRichi
DOW JONES Can this Channel Up hold after the Fed Rate Decision?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 24 Low and yesterday's correction (technically its Bearish Leg) stopped on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Having formed already a Golden Cross, as long as this 4H MA50 holds, it should technically fuel the pattern's new Bullish Leg. The 'weakest' Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +3.58%, so we expect a minimum repeat of that, giving a Target at 42100 on the short-term. This falls perfectly at the bottom of the 5 week Resistance Zone. If this Channel Up doesn't get invalidated after today's Fed Rate Decision, it will most likely push the price there. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
With Dow at Resistance, it Could be Make or Break for ASX 200The Dow Jones tends to share the strongest correlation with the ASX 200, out of the three Wall Street indices. It is therefore worth noting that Dow futures formed a bearish pinbar at trend resistance on Thursday, following an intraday false break of the March low. The daily RSI (2) was also overbought by the day’s close. The March 31 low also hovers nearby for additional resistance. Given futures volumes were declining while Dow futures rose, I suspect a pullback is due. ASX 200 futures formed a hanging man candle beneath the January high, near a weekly VPOC (volume point of control). The 200-day SMA also hovers nearby. A bearish divergence has also formed on the daily RSI (2). And like the Dow, volumes were declining while ASX prices rose. Bears could fade into moves around the Jan low or 2000-day SMA with an initial target at the March high, a break beneath which assumes aa deeper pullback towards the 7939 VPOC and 7900 handle. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
DOW JONES: The most critical 1D MA50 of all.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.914, MACD = -282.250, ADX = 30.751) but has completed 5 green 1D candles in a row, going for the all important Resistance test of the 1D MA50. This trendline has been intact since March 3rd and is on a crucial Resistance cluster as this is where the LH trendline from the ATH is. The 1D RSI is already on an Inverse H&S, which is a positive sign but we need to see a candle closing over the 1D MA50 to validate the restoration of the long term bullish trend. If succesful, we will turn long and target the ATH Resistance (TP = 45,000), which is also just under the 2.0 Fib extension. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DJI
by InvestingScope
US30 Trading Into Major Resistance - Look For Dow Jones Retrace🔍 US30 Analysis: At the moment, I'm watching the US30 as it looks overextended 📈 and is trading into previous highs. 🧱 If you look left on the chart, it's approaching a key resistance level on both the weekly and daily timeframes. I’m expecting a potential retracement 🔁 and monitoring for a bearish break of structure on the 30-minute timeframe ⏱️ as a possible setup for a counter-trend short 📉 — aiming for the imbalance zone visible on that timeframe. 📏 Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to high, the 50% equilibrium 🔄 lines up perfectly with the imbalance area, adding confluence to the idea. 📚 This is shared for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice 💼.
FX:US30
by fxtraderanthony
DOW JONES Are you willing to bet against a 15 year pattern?Dow Jones (DJI) will close the month today with a massive rebound 1M candle after almost touching its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the October 2010 break above the 1M MA50, after the market recovered from the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 1M MA50 has been the ultimate long-term Buy Entry as it has always signaled rallies that ranged from +58% to +67%. The 1M MA50 has also kept the index mostly within the 0.382 - 0.786 Fibonacci range (blue zone) of the multi-year Channel Up. Given also that the 1W RSI also reached in April its ultimate Buy Zone (green), we view this as the best long-term Buy Signal the index handed to us since the September 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Since the Bullish Legs that followed have been fairly consistent on average, we expect another 58% rise minimum. Assuming a 'bad-case' scenario of being contained within the 0.786 Fib, then a 56000 long-term Target seems more than fair. Are you willing to go against this pattern? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
DOW JONES New long-term bottom being formed on the 1W MA200.Dow Jones (DJI) hasn't yet broken above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) following the April 07 Low, but is nonetheless consolidating and holding the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which hasn't broken as Support since October 17 2022. That was a few days after the bottom of the 2022 Inflation Crisis was formed and the current Channel Up started. In fact, the rallies that started on both Channel Up bottoms since, have been almost identical in range (+22.60% and +23.80% respectively) so technically we should be expecting at least 44800 (+22.60% from April's Low) on the medium-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
Dow Inc.: Low in PlaceDow Inc. managed to hold and respond well within our active Target Zone(s) between $35.93 and $22.83 at the relevant Fibonacci levels. We currently assume that wave (II) in blue has been successfully completed, which leads us to anticipate a rise above the two indicated resistance levels ($55.67 and $71.86). Our zones remain active and could still be used for entering long positions. However, it should be noted that the price range could be tested further, and a completely new low is even possible under our alternative scenario: this wave count outlines a significantly stronger setback with the blue wave alt.(II), which would mean breaking through our dark green-blue Target Zones (probability: 35%).
NYSE:DOW
by MarketIntel
DOW fulfilled all Market Bottom conditions. 2year rally started!Dow Jones (DJI) has cemented a strong Support zone last week. Not only did it almost test its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and successfully held but also the former All Time High (ATH) Resistance trend-line that started from the previous Cycle Top and now turned into Support. This previous ATH trend-line held and offered its Support on the previous 2 major market bottoms as well (October 03 2022 and March 23 2020). Actually on all 3 previous Cycle bottoms that turned out to be the best level to buy long-term, the 1W RSI was oversold on the 30.00 limit. All the above conditions were fulfilled on last week's (April 07 2025) Low. Even though Dow is expected to reach 53000 on its next Top in around 2 years, the most optimal Sell Signal has been given by the 1W RSI. After the 1W RSI breaks for the first time above the 70.00 overbought limit again, the best Sell Signal would be after it drops and re-tests again 70.00 for the 2nd time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US30Long
by TradingShot