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Dow-theory

DOW JONES US30 :BULLS DEFENDING THEIR ZONEThe Dow closed 540 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, boosted by a sharp rebound in regional banks and solid jobs report that tempered fears of a recession. PacWest and Western Alliance rebounded sharply by 81.7% and 49.3%, leading regional banks’ gains after JPMorgan upgraded Western Alliance, Zions Bancorp and Comerica in a note and stated the three banks appear “substantially mispriced” in part due to short-selling activity. Also, investors welcomed positive earnings from Apple, pushing its stock up 4.7%. On the data front, the US nonfarm payrolls and wage growth accelerated more than expected in April indicating that the US economy remains strong, challenging the expectation that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle would end. On a weekly basis, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.5% and 0.9%, while Nasdaq gained 0.1% and hit its 37-week high. Technical (1) 31500 and 32615 are the next possible buying zones where Bulls will attack the Bears. The Maket Bias is Bullish, but the momentum is slowing down....(profit taking) Inceasing volume and higher momentum will bring back the DOW to 34597 (1) . The volume has more powerfull shifts, meaning that more participants start to push DOW higher. In case the Bulls hold this zone the next taget will be 35659 ( 2) and then 36968 (3) FED´s Plan could send DOW 45099( Target1) probably in 2nd Quarter 2024 and to 54695 (Target2) in 2025-2026 (4) Profit Taking over the weekend could send DOW at the beginning of the next week to 32473. (5) In case the Maket loses this zone the next retracement aea will be 31464 (6) Last Resort: Eveything below 31287 will be the last chance for the Bulls to defend their positions 30880 30332 29164 28651 SHORT SET-Up: If the Market breaks this area ,then the Bears will aggessively take control over the market. The pice will soar to around 24000 very fast ( See 7) and losing that zone will bring Dow back to 22598 and then 20593 (See 8)
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DaveBrascoFX
TLKM - BULLISH REVERSAL - DOW THEORY (INDONESIA STOCKS EXCHANGE)TLKM BULLISH REVERSAL AFTER SEVERAL ROUGH MONTHS OF ITS BEARISHNESS, TLKM START REVERSE TO BULLISH, FROM DOW THEORY WE KNOW THAT MARKET MOVE IN A PRIMARY, SECONDARY AND FOLLOWED BY PRIMARY AGAIN JUST LIKE AB = CD, TLKM ALREADY DO HIS PRIMARY AND SECONDARY BULLISH REACTION, NOW TLKM START TO FORMING HIS PRIMARY REACTION WHICH WILL LEAD TLKM TO AROUND 3700 - 3720 WHY THAT AREA? THE REASON IS 1. WE CAN SEE A GAP AROUND 3700 2. THE GOLDEN RATIO OF 1.618 FIBONACCI EXTERNAL RETRACEMENT ALSO STOP AT 3720 (XAY). SO THE FIRST POINT AND SECOND POINT CLUSTER AT THE SAME TIME CUT LOSS AREA SHOULD BE 3150 REASON : 2ND SWING LOW ALREADY MAKE A HIGHER LOW AND IF BREAK THE FIRST LOWER LOW THEN IT MIGHT GO TO 3060 AND GO UP TO CHASE THE 3700 TARGET 3060 IS THE AREA OF FIBONACCI XAB FOR THE FIRST PRIMARY OF THE BULLISH DISCLAIMER ON !
IDX:TLKMLong
by RupinGoh
Bitcoin's Past Bear Market vs Today. Sell Call. Winter is ComingThe bottom is, in my humble opinion, is not in. Looking back at the price action of BTCUSD in early 2014 we can take a look inside the most recent long term bear market and use that as a reference for our current bear market in bitcoin. Bitcoin and crypto has seen a massive influx of new investors and frankly what we in the space refer to as 'dumb money'. They came in thinking that bitcoin could only ever go up and so they bought and bought until their bags were full and their wallets empty and not long after they finished their New Years eve bash and they notice that they are feeling lighter. They reach into their pockets and pull out their crypto bags to realize that they are disinagrating before their eyes. Now many have sold their bags holdings and it has caused the fall in price, but what we have not seen yet is the mass exodus style selling that comes only from the weary and teary eyed young gamblers that flew to close to the sun and got burned by the aura of infinite lambos and mad riches. When these poor souls sell they are selling it to the whales that have already sold a good amount of their coins and now are waiting paitently on the sidelines for the weak minded to putter out and hand them their heavy bags for next to nothing. Those who tell you to HODL are probably the same ones who have already sold of a decent % of their holdings up above 10k now they are looking for a new base to accumulate coins from. There are three basic cycles to every market and they can be seen in just about any chart. They are the Accumulation Phase, Seen in the trading range of about $300-200 marked by black s/r lvls. Another sign of an Accumulation Phase is the sideways and below average volume. Majority of the volume is Whales and small enthusiasts like myself who dont care about price action (atleast at the time) This nearly year long period back in 2015/16 was the latest accumulation Phase. Finally it broke out of its 100 dollar range on MASSIVE VOLUME! Here is an in-depth view of what the Public Phase contains This is when your buddy probably told you about how he heard about some guy who made tons of money in crypto so you and him should think about doing it. This is where many of the timid retail investors start to trickle in slowly at first. Testing the waters and swimming with the new found Bull. But once these timid retail investors start making some money they get very loud quickly and all of a sudden more and more people start funneling in pushing the price higher and higher at greater rates. Until the Whales decide that they are ready for their long awaited pay day and they start selling into the buying madness that has ensued. This will cause ripples in the price as all of the coins which were bought up much much lower are sold for tens of thousands of dollars. This is a new Phase known as the Distribution phase and for obvious reason. here the whales distribute coins to the retail gamblers stopping new ATHs from being hit and soon lower highs and lower lows follow. This results in a sell of and eventually once there is blood in the streets you start buying again even if its your own blood, as a famous Rothschild once said. But how do we know when there is blood in the streets??? Look for the volume to tell you. IF your not a whale learn to whale watch. ANd follow those whales. the largest daily Volume spike in the history of bitcoin was at the bottom in the early days of 2015 below $200 a coin. Wait for a similar volume day before you try to catch this falling knife known as bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by coltsrule7
2
Dow TheoryHere is a prime on Dow Theory to help you get on the right track. Charles Dow was an American journalist. He founded the Dow Jones & Co., created the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), founded the Wall Street Journal and created the Dow Theory, the basis for technical analysis (which is the important part for us). All in the XIX century. I will use the Dow Theory, and just that, to analyze the $BTCUSD daily chart from the beginning of 2017 to today. You will learn, I hope, the basics and see how to implement a very simple, but effective, trend following strategy using just that. Dow divided trends into 3 types: Major, Intermediary, and Minor. Minor trends are fluctuations inside Intermediary trends, which are themselves fluctuations inside Major trends. In this image, I've drawn Major trend components in red, Intermed. in orange, and Minor in yellow. Minor trends aren't very useful and Dow considered them to be distractions, noise, so we'll ignore them. Notice how during the bull run the Intermediary trends kept forming higher highs and higher lows, that's the very definition of an uptrend. A bull market is simply a Primary trend going up, so we were in a bull market. But not just any bull market, a parabolic bull market, since the trend was accelerating, getting always more vertical, higher prices in smaller times. Dow called each of the Intermediary trends "Swings" on the Primary trend. A Successful Swing (in an uptrend) happens when price makes a higher high, followed by a higher low. A Failure Swing happens when price fails to overcome the previous high and breaks the previous low. A Failure Swing is a reversal pattern, from it, you can derive other patterns you probably know: Double Top, Triple Top, Head & Shoulders... (And their bottom counterparts). Dow also divided each trend into 3 phases. For bull: I) Accumulation, when smart money starts buying; II) Public participation, when retail investors notice the trend and start buying; III) Excess, when the media starts calling the general public attention. For bear: I) Distribution, when smart money starts selling; II) Public participation, when retail investors start selling; III) Panic, when the broader public starts panic selling. I've drawn these phases in green and purple. Dow Theory gave us 4 signals the bull run was ending/ended: 1) At 17k, when price couldn't overcome the previous ATH, starting a Failure Swing (that's when I started selling a little); 2) At 15k, when the Parabolic trend line was broken (sorry @parabolictrav) (I sold more); 3) At 12k, when price broke the previous low, thus confirming the Failure Swing (Here I sold the bulk of what I planned on selling); 4) At 11k when price swung again - twice - at the previous low, but was unable to break it. For 1), according to Dow, we even had one more signal: the low volume. Volume confirms price action. Should price break our previous low @ ~5.9k, Panic phase begins, possibly taking price to one of the accumulation regions of the bull run: ~4k and 2.6k. (Remember: Support and resistance are regions, not solid lines.) With this, I hope you can better understand where all TA springs from, thus learning to use it correctly. For more info on Dow Theory and everything TA related, read this book: www.amazon.com
BITMEX:XBTUSD.PEducation
by FelipeZavan
2