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SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show. The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text: JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515 JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055 JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420 Expiry is December 29, 2023. So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to: 1. Keep price away from 4,515 2. Drive price towards/under 4,055 3. Keep price away from 3,420 Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless. A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge. And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions. The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish. Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken. And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target. A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis. A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit. Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life. If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice. What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession. It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China. But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward? The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage. In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change. 2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter. If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life. You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again. Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns. Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser. But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985. Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800. The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
4
DOW JONES: Support Zone intact. Buyers are favored short term.Dow Jones is volatile on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 37.485, MACD = -170.620, ADX = 29.943) after almost testing the S1 level (32,813) yesterday but following a 4H MACD Bullish Cross formation, it is a low risk buy opportunity. The rejection of the previous rise took place on the 4H MA200, so that is our target again. Buy and TP = 33,700. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES The bottom isn't in yet.Dow Jones may be trading inside a long term Channel Up but the medium term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone. The last Bottom of the Channel Up was closer to the 1week MA200, this time the MA level is even closer, a strong candidate for a bottom. The previous correction leg made a -10.15% extension, a new one of this size meets almost perfectly the bottom of the Channel Up and a little over the 1week MA200. Sell to 32400 then reverse to buying and target 33600 (1week MA50). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TheCryptagon
DOW JONES: Strong short term buy signalDow Jones is on a range with the 1H timeframe neutral (RSI = 46.672, MACD = -41.790, ADX = 29.739), giving us an opportunity to buy the decline of the last three days and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,000). Technically this consolidation, even on 1D RSI structure which is inside a Rectangle, mimics early September. The medium term trend remains bearish inside a Bearish Megaphone but the long term bullish inside a Channel Up. See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders signals for a new buyDow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern and this week's pull-back, caused by a rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), may be the last before it starts rising to a new Higher High. We are taking this opportunity to buy for the short-term and target the top of the dashed Channel at 34200. The IH&S can complete its long-term target on the 2.0 Fibonacci level (35000) after it breaks above the Lower Highs trendline. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
DOW JONES On the verge of a new bullish break out.Dow Jones is testing the MA200 (4h) today, after holding the MA50 (4h), extending the rebound that was generated at the bottom of the Channel Up. This is so far replicating to a good extend, the March 15th rebound-bullish leg. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the MA200 (4h) break out. Targets: 1. 34850 (Falling Resistance). Tips: 1. The MACD On the (1d) time frame is past a strong Buy Cross, much like March 22nd. It shows that we are on the same level as when that bullish leg tested the MA200 (4h). Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
2
DOW JONES is in an expansion Cycle and people still shorting it!Dow Jones on the 3M chart gives you the clearest picture you can get. Every 10-15 years it consolidates inside a Megaphone (fundamental reasons like war, recession etc) and then an expansion phase follows. In the 90s this expansion phase was extended due to the uprecedented boom of Dotcom. While the index is on its expansion phase, the RSI trades inside a Falling Wedge, which warns of the loss in bullish strength and eventually leads to the new Megaphone. Right now it is obvious that we are in an expansion phase. Needless to say it will last for as long as the MA50 holds. The real question is will it be short like in the 1950s or extended like in mid 1980s-90s? Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
7
DOW JONES May be starting a new Bull rally under our nose..Dow Jones (DJI) is printing on its RSI on the 1W time-frame an astonishingly symmetric Higher Lows pattern as 2015/ 2016. As with today, the price was within a Rising Wedge at the time, making a fake-out bearish break but still was emphatically supported by the lower Bollinger. In fact the Bollinger Bands have been instrumental in containing the price action. It we are indeed (based on the 1W RSI) on a bottom similar to October 31 2016, then a very aggressive Bull rally is about to begin. And as always the majority isn't taking notice. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
2
US30 - Daily Timeframe Analysis (ICT)(Refer to my Weekly analysis for US30 and DXY) On lower timeframes I have 3 areas I want to anticipate a long to go to the short POI. Ideally, we don't see a daily close out of that thin yellow box (Daily Bisi). There are 3 lines of defense for price to reach to and find support. 1st line of defense is a Breaker with CE of a wick and a gap, which looks very nice. This is my first choice. 2nd line of defense is the 4h bisi (dark blue is a bottom prediction if it gets there) 3rd and last line of defense is the 4h Orderblock MT. The more price declines, I believe the faster the move up would be back above the yellow zone. Relative equal highs reside above, so that gives me some confidence that we are likely moving higher. The short POI is a 4h Sibi inside the weekly Sibi has my eye. A high RR trade could be possible.
OANDA:US30USD
by Road_2_Funded
US30 - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)The end of the week will show if we have bottomed here, but I have 2 areas of interest: Where we are already in this weekly Sibi to either give up the ghost and drop lower, or go into the 2-week Sibi and then either break down or continue up and then find it as support soon after to proceed higher. Gut instincts and based on my sentiment for the USD is that we are going lower after hitting that 2-week Sibi, down to the weekly Bisi at least. There was already a break in the intermediate structure and MMSM. Seasonally November sees the USD rally as well.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Road_2_Funded
1