DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 25/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. If we make another low, then the WXY becomes an ABC structure.
DOW
DOW JONES: Support Zone intact. Buyers are favored short term.Dow Jones is volatile on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 37.485, MACD = -170.620, ADX = 29.943) after almost testing the S1 level (32,813) yesterday but following a 4H MACD Bullish Cross formation, it is a low risk buy opportunity. The rejection of the previous rise took place on the 4H MA200, so that is our target again. Buy and TP = 33,700.
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DOW JONES The bottom isn't in yet.Dow Jones may be trading inside a long term Channel Up but the medium term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone.
The last Bottom of the Channel Up was closer to the 1week MA200, this time the MA level is even closer, a strong candidate for a bottom.
The previous correction leg made a -10.15% extension, a new one of this size meets almost perfectly the bottom of the Channel Up and a little over the 1week MA200.
Sell to 32400 then reverse to buying and target 33600 (1week MA50).
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 20/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. An abc structure for the wave X is also still possible.
DOW JONES: Strong short term buy signalDow Jones is on a range with the 1H timeframe neutral (RSI = 46.672, MACD = -41.790, ADX = 29.739), giving us an opportunity to buy the decline of the last three days and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,000). Technically this consolidation, even on 1D RSI structure which is inside a Rectangle, mimics early September. The medium term trend remains bearish inside a Bearish Megaphone but the long term bullish inside a Channel Up.
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders signals for a new buyDow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern and this week's pull-back, caused by a rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), may be the last before it starts rising to a new Higher High. We are taking this opportunity to buy for the short-term and target the top of the dashed Channel at 34200. The IH&S can complete its long-term target on the 2.0 Fibonacci level (35000) after it breaks above the Lower Highs trendline.
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 19/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. An abc structure for the wave X is also still possible.
DOW JONES On the verge of a new bullish break out.Dow Jones is testing the MA200 (4h) today, after holding the MA50 (4h), extending the rebound that was generated at the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is so far replicating to a good extend, the March 15th rebound-bullish leg.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA200 (4h) break out.
Targets:
1. 34850 (Falling Resistance).
Tips:
1. The MACD On the (1d) time frame is past a strong Buy Cross, much like March 22nd. It shows that we are on the same level as when that bullish leg tested the MA200 (4h).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 16/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We had a strong reaction from the reversal areas. However, in the lower time frame, we are missing one more swing up to identify an impulse. If we do not get the additional swing up, we probably take out the low as an impulsive fifth wave down.
DOW JONES is in an expansion Cycle and people still shorting it!Dow Jones on the 3M chart gives you the clearest picture you can get.
Every 10-15 years it consolidates inside a Megaphone (fundamental reasons like war, recession etc) and then an expansion phase follows.
In the 90s this expansion phase was extended due to the uprecedented boom of Dotcom.
While the index is on its expansion phase, the RSI trades inside a Falling Wedge, which warns of the loss in bullish strength and eventually leads to the new Megaphone.
Right now it is obvious that we are in an expansion phase. Needless to say it will last for as long as the MA50 holds.
The real question is will it be short like in the 1950s or extended like in mid 1980s-90s?
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 13/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 12/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW JONES May be starting a new Bull rally under our nose..Dow Jones (DJI) is printing on its RSI on the 1W time-frame an astonishingly symmetric Higher Lows pattern as 2015/ 2016. As with today, the price was within a Rising Wedge at the time, making a fake-out bearish break but still was emphatically supported by the lower Bollinger. In fact the Bollinger Bands have been instrumental in containing the price action.
It we are indeed (based on the 1W RSI) on a bottom similar to October 31 2016, then a very aggressive Bull rally is about to begin. And as always the majority isn't taking notice.
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DOW JONES Small pull back on the cards.Dow Jones hit the 1day MA200 yesterday and failed to close over it.
As a result, the price got rejected and started pulling back today.
Based on the 1day RSI, we could be in a minor corrective candle similar to March 22nd, which found Support between the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci range.
Buy on the 0.618 Fibonacci and target 35000 (Resistance A).
Previous chart:
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US30 - Daily Timeframe Analysis (ICT)(Refer to my Weekly analysis for US30 and DXY)
On lower timeframes I have 3 areas I want to anticipate a long to go to the short POI. Ideally, we don't see a daily close out of that thin yellow box (Daily Bisi).
There are 3 lines of defense for price to reach to and find support.
1st line of defense is a Breaker with CE of a wick and a gap, which looks very nice. This is my first choice.
2nd line of defense is the 4h bisi (dark blue is a bottom prediction if it gets there)
3rd and last line of defense is the 4h Orderblock MT.
The more price declines, I believe the faster the move up would be back above the yellow zone.
Relative equal highs reside above, so that gives me some confidence that we are likely moving higher.
The short POI is a 4h Sibi inside the weekly Sibi has my eye. A high RR trade could be possible.
US30 - Weekly Timeframe Analysis (ICT)The end of the week will show if we have bottomed here, but I have 2 areas of interest:
Where we are already in this weekly Sibi to either give up the ghost and drop lower, or go into the 2-week Sibi and then either break down or continue up and then find it as support soon after to proceed higher. Gut instincts and based on my sentiment for the USD is that we are going lower after hitting that 2-week Sibi, down to the weekly Bisi at least. There was already a break in the intermediate structure and MMSM. Seasonally November sees the USD rally as well.
DOW JONES: This is only the beginning of the recovery.Dow Jones touched yesterday the 1D MA100 and with it turned the 1D technical outlook neutral (RSI = 47.338, MACD = -251.570, ADX = 41.460). As presented last time (see idea link at the bottom) the rebound level was the bottom of the Channel Up and now that is confirmed as the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
Much like the bearish wave of February-March, the 1D MA50-100 Bearish Cross signifies the bottom and the beginning of a new long term rally. Since the drop has been remarkably similar (both -6.46%) it is possible that the rise will be proportional too (+7.18%). This will be a little over the R1 level (TP = 35,100).
Prior idea:
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 11/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW JONES has considerable upside potential targeting 34850.Dow Jones touched the MA200 (1d) today after bouncing off the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is a standard V shaped reversal, much like the one in March.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next MA200 (1d) break out.
Targets:
1. 34850 (Falling Resistance contact in similar fashion with April 14th).
Tips:
1. When the RSI (1d) is rebounding after being oversold, which is what took place on the March 13th Low. The two patterns are identical, this is why we expect the same target symmetry as then.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
US30 Dow Jones Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaWe are presently analysing the US30, which has recently reached a critical resistance level. In the video, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the Dow Jones, delving into various aspects including the prevailing trend, support and resistance levels, market structure, and price action dynamics. As the video nears its conclusion, we carefully assess a prospective trading opportunity.
It is important to emphasise that our video provides a thorough explanation of all aspects discussed, and it should be noted that the content is provided for educational purposes only. This should not be interpreted as financial advice.