Longs squeeze before major moveIn the previous Dow Jones analysis I shared some weeks ago, I was expecting market to continue its bullish move more than what it did.
But since I bought near local low at that time, I was able to get out of that trade in profit.
The market then formed Triangle pattern and decided to go downhill from there which we have been seeing recently.
Last Friday, I was expecting market to go up upon the news in price territory of wave 1, then sweep the low before ultimately making its upward move. But instead it seems price went down a bit (not sweeping the low) then entered into price territory of wave 1 and today on market open, we can see a big gap.
Now it turns out, this is yet another good play done by market, trapping the longs with this big gap. I am expecting price to continue downside for now until we make a new low which would be our wave 5 of ending diagonals. From where the real upward move would start.
Waiting patiently for this scenario to play out. I am not gonna buy until the new low has not been formed.
DOW
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 09/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW JONES Channel Up Double Bottom. Solid buy entry either way.Dow Jones (DJI) is rising following a vastly oversold 1D RSI reading (reached even 23.60) at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on the RSI pattern itself, we can draw comparisons with the December 2022 - March 2023 correction. According to that the 1D RSI has one more Low to make before it bottoms and that bottom will be leg (e). This will justify the emergence of a diverging Channel Up (dotted), where leg (e) will be its Higher Low while also completing a symmetrical -9.30% decline from the top.
Still, the price has dipped well below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was March's bottom formation, thus either entry is equally probable. As a result it is best to buy on both levels so that a low risk indeed opportunity won't be missed. Our target is 35000, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as Resistance 1.
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 06/10/2023The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like we are working on the fifth wave of wave ((c)). We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming, we will focus on the secondary scenario.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 05/10/2023The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like we are working on the fifth wave of wave ((c)). We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming, we will focus on the secondary scenario.
DJ30 H4 | Rising into 23.6% Fibo resistanceDow Jones (DJ30) could rise towards an overlap resistance and potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 33279.95
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level
Stop Loss: 33798.50
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 32722.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 04/10/2023The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like we are working on the fifth wave of wave ((c)). We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming, we will focus on the secondary scenario.
UPDATE: Dow hit target 1 - heading to target 2 at 32622The dow broke below the Symmetrical Triangle and it was beautiful text book style.
We set the first target at the bottom of the pattern at 33,607.
Now that the momentum is still negative, we can expect it to head to the next target at 32,622.
The signs are all bearish and this is one of those hold and adjust stop loss if need be.
DOW JONES: Failed on the 1D MA200, further decline possible.Dow Jones failed to close Friday's 1D candle over the 1D MA200 and opened the day lower. The 1D technical outlook remains bearish (RSI = 33.039, MACD = -323.740, ADX = 47.730) as the medium term Channel Down is still holding. A crossing over the 1D MA100 reverses this. Until then we can expect the decline to continue until it tests the HL trendline of the Channel Up or better yet the reversal is confirmed by a Buy Cross on the 1D MACD. A potential rebound there targets the R1 level (TP = 35,100).
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HD, Crucial, Two Formations Setup the BEARISH BREAKOUTs!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about HD on several timeframe perspectives. As the whole stock market is moving into a decisive phase where more and more mixed sector stock developments emerge with many sector stocks to increase a bearish possibility while others still remain in a major bullish condition it is highly necessary to consider those stocks that have main bearish potential in a total-return approach to also profit when the stock price is declining. In this case I have spotted HD, a major potential short-side-candidate when considering the total-return approach in the current stock market.
As when looking at my chart now, the most important indication for HD is that it is forming two major bearish formations that are going to double the effect of bearish acceleration to the downside once they have been completed. The first bearish formation HD is forming is this gigantic head-and-shoulder-formation which is already in the final stages of completion as the right shoulder is about to be finalized. The second bearish formation HD is forming is the crucial bear-flag-formation forming simultaneously with the right shoulder and is also going to accelerate the bearishness hugely once a breakout has shown up.
Both bearish formations HD is forming here are pointing into the crucial bearish resistance-cluster into which HD is now moving, this means that there is an enormous high possibility for a massive pullback and bearish continuation towards the downside as HD is already attempting to do so there are not much confirmation signals remaining till the total bearish breakdowns. In this case it will be especially important on how HD actually moves below the two main EMAs here, with the first EMA being the 65-EMA marked in red, and the second EMA being the 200-EMA in blue. Once HD broke out below the 200-EMA in blue as well as the lower boundary and neckline of the gigantic head-shoulder-formation this is going to setup the bearish-continuation and bearish-acceleration to activate the target-zones.
Currently all indications point to the massive bearish continuation and acceleration to setup in the next times. Especially, when other major sector stocks turn bearishly to the downside this can have an acceleration effect on HD also. Once the formations have been completed it is going to activate the target-zones as seen in my chart between the 177.5 and 185 level. In this case HD will show how much it is going to increase the bearishness once it approaches these levels because if there is an extremely high bearishness there is also the possibility that HD just breaks down with exponential high bearish pressure below these levels and even does not attempt to form a reversal in this zone.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 02/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)For traders (lower timeframe):
The primary expectation is now that wave ((b)) is finished and that we are doing wave ((c)). It looks like wave ((c)) is still missing a fifth wave down.
For investors (higher timeframe):
In the higher timeframe, if it plays out, investors should wait for the completion of the expanded flat pullback. The wave (2) area (in red) is a nice buying opportunity for investors.
DOW JONES Bottom formation buy only on the short term.Dow Jones is priting a bottom on the newly emerged Channel Down which calls for a short term buy.
The same kind of formation was witnessed in middle March on the long term bottom pricing when the (recently broken) Channel Up started.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34400 (MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on the 30.00 oversold support. Same as on March 13th. An additional buy indicator.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Channel Down bottom buyDow Jones / US30 hit the bottom of the Channel Down that is correcting the index to the Rising Support of the larger Channel Up pattern.
It did cross under the 1day MA200 (bearish) but on the other hand the 1day RSI is rebounding on the Oversold Support (bullish) like on the March 13th low.
Keep a tight SL on the low of the bottom candle and buy. Target 34400 (1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Approaching a critical Support cluster.The Dow Jones index (DJI) has broken below the long-term Higher Lows trend-line and has transitioned into a Channel Down. The current Lower Lows leg is approaching not just the bottom of the Channel Down but more importantly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The latter in particular provided a Double Support Bounce on (June 01 and May 25) and hasn't been broken since March 29.
We are waiting for the first 2-day green 1D candle streak in order to buy and target (at least) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Projected contact at 34450 (target). The 1D RSI has hit the 34.80 Support, which provided the bounce on the August 24 bottom.
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Important Breakout & Bearish Outlook
An important thing happened on US30 Index.
First, the index broke and closed below a major rising trend line
and closed below that on a daily.
Second, a key horizontal support was also broken yesterday.
The broken support and a trend line compose the expanding sell zone.
I suggest shorting the Index from there, expecting a fall to 33700 support.
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DOW JONES crossed below the 6 month Channel Up.Dow Jones is waving a strong bearish break out signal as it crossed under the bottom of the 6 month Channel Up today and most likely will close that way.
This means that the trend is shifting to bearish on the medium term as a new Channel Down could emerge.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 33840 (MA200 (1d)) and if it breaks after a small bounce target extension 33200 (bottom of Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is trading in a Channel Down of its own. Last time it did was from December 2022 to March 2023 and as you see that price action is similar to today's. It bottomed some way under the MA200 (1d), which is consistent with our target extension.
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Notes:
Past trading plan: