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DOW JONES Buy opportunity after strongest correction since May.Dow Jones (DJI) is consolidating under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 5th straight day and is doing so near the bottom of the 5-month just above the 1D MA50 (green trend-line). The latter has been intact since June 02, so technically we are at a very strong Support zone. In fact August's decline so far has been the strongest technical correction since May. The lower buy confirmation will come after the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, but you can also take the break-out buy signal if a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 first. In any case, our bullish target is 36300, which would represent a +6.13% rise, the minimum rise % since the Channel Up started on March 15. If however the 1D candle closes below the 1D MA100, we will take a quick sell and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 33800. Upon successful hitting of the target, we will add the 2nd buy position and use it for a longer term target at 36900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
1
SPY New All Time Highs By Year End. 8% No Recession Jerome Powell thanks retail for shorting the M2 debasement. Now watch in suspense the next months unfold of non stop SPY rising and the market try to figure out what's going wrong. Welcome to the roaring 23s and welcome to start of the final bubble. Once that 8% gap is taken out I suspect news to start breaking it and the "TLT bulls" will get a shock when capital leaves money market funds and flows back into the growth sector. Believing the "recession nonsense" is almost like believing the roman denarius aureus did not lose any silver content. We've been in a recession since QE started in 2009, the currency will always debase to defend asset value even though it makes it weaker, this is how's it will be until the end of this system.
SP:SPXLong
by FederalXBT
Dow Jones (US30): Bullish Move From Key Level Explained Dow Jones Index is trading in a bullish trend. After the price set a new higher high on a daily, it retraced to a key daily structure support. A doji candle was formed on that. Analyzing a 4H time frame, we can spot a confirmed bullish breakout of a resistance line of a falling channel and an inverted h&s pattern formation with a violated neckline. These bullish clues make me think that the price may bounce. Goals will be 34820 / 35050 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by VasilyTrader
15
DOW JONES First time near the 1D MA50 since July 10.Dow Jones is having the strongest pull-back since late May, so far still within the technical boundaries of the 5 month Channel Up. In doing so, it is only a few points before hitting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the July 10 Low. Despite that contact, the index hasn't closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 since June 01, which was at the start of that Channel Up Higher Low. As a result, we remain bullish aiming at a +6.10% rise to 36800, as long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. If it fails we will take the small loss and quick sell instead towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 34200, which is exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up. If that scenario is materialized, then we will only buy again after the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross, most likely (but not necessarily) closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case our buy target will be 36900, just below the All Time High of 2021. P.S. The 1D RSI already broke below its Higher Lows trend-line, potentially an early bearish warning. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
1
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering IcebergLast week's SPX call was pretty accurate in terms of levels. What was wrong was only the order of operations and timing. ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon I had felt it made sense for the market maker to sweep out the lows before taking the highs, but the plan was the opposite, and this actually adds credence to the theory that the markets are topping. Something to keep in mind about calls for new all time highs, that we're hearing everywhere now, is that equities generally don't moon in high interest rate environments, and every central bank that matters in the world except for Japan is playing with 3-5%. And nobody is cutting. Warren Buffet said to "be fearful when others are greedy" and it's really a piece of wisdom you ought to take to heart, right now. Something I would like to tell you is that tops and bottoms are, 100% of the time, hindsight calls. There is no way to actually accurately predict a top and a bottom before it unfolds. What you can do as a trader, however, is anticipate that certain levels are the target, and look to see if price action and other covariances and fundamental factors confirm the theory if price trades to that level. Then, using risk management and some rational logic, one can take the position, and shift their bias. If you can read the map and execute, you'll make a lot of money. Otherwise, you can only make money if you're lucky, and few are particularly lucky, since we're all just mortals. There's some problems with the "more uppy for more longer" theory. A core factor is that the beginning of July marked a quarterly shift, and the entire month has been even more up. There are now only August and September remaining. If it's not SPX 5,500 coming this year, the reversal is probably going to be violent, it stands to reason. Another really crucial core factor is the geopolitical situation between the International Rules Based Order, which Washington ostensibly heads, and the Chinese government under Xi Jinping. A really noticeable characteristic of all the clamoring in the propaganda machine is that they never go after "The Chinese Communist Party," they always go after "China" and Xi. You should always remember this adage: "China is not the CCP." You should always remember that when someone is attacking the world's only 5,000 year old culture and nation, the world's largest and most rich in natural resources and talent, they're likely to be Fabians. Although Xi is, and has been for a decade, the leader of the CCP, the most notable thing about him is that he has never persecuted Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, who have been subjected to organ harvesting genocide under the edict of former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999. In fact, Xi has actually protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong, hitting thugs who target the practice's spiritual cultivators with the Anti-corruption Campaign, after the National Security Law and John Lee were installed as Chief Executive. It's notable that John Lee has been denied entry to San Francisco for the APEC economic summit in November by Joe Biden, on that account. All of this is to say the geopolitical chatter you hear on "China" is a disaster waiting to happen with "Taiwan." Speaking of Taiwan, I really believe that TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) is a significantly potent long to hedge with if the U.S. equities market goes sideways: ]TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge But "Taiwan War" does not mean that Xi is going to invade. The CCP is heavily weakened from the pandemic and in no position to be attacking an island that will become the Ukraine proxy war, but on a whole other level. If Xi were really an idiot, the IRBO and the Jiang Faction would have been able to kill him years ago. Instead, the CCP is about to fall, and what the IRBO is looking to do is depose Xi and replace him with a submissive and groomed toady from Taiwan, Maidan Revolution style (see Oliver Stone's film Ukraine on Fire). If Xi is smart, he will weaponize the persecution of Falun Gong to defend China and himself, because Wall Street and the world government have been continuously going to Shanghai to train Marxism with the Jiangling toads, which means bloodying their hands in the persecution as "insurance." Google the Neil Heywood story and give it some sober thought. Back to price action and trading on the most important index right now: other risks are that both the Nasdaq and the Dow also took out the same pivot, and reacted in identical ways: Another is that the VIX, which is already anomalously low, but won't print a single digit handle, has printed higher lows, followed by a breakout and retracement: While 10-Year Treasury bonds, important because they represent the "Risk Free Rate," meaning huge, long term money can park cash here instead of taking risk in equities, look like a nightmare. (Rates up = bonds down) It looks like a nightmare because Jerome Powell again said during the Q&A portion of the FOMC press conference that the inflation target is 2% while it's still 3.8% (What's 90% among friends?), that rate cuts aren't coming, and further pausing is totally contingent on economic data being spectacular in favour of deflation. (Is not happening). And all of the above is confirmed by the US Dollar Index's higher time frame candles showing the dump under 100.00 was really just a raid, and we're about to get our upside to 108+ on. So, here's what I expect to happen as soon as Monday: I believe, based on the price action that unfolded Thursday and Friday of this week, that the market makers will take advantage of Monday, July 31 to print the high of the month, breaking the 4,630 level to roughly 4,650. This will kill all the short traders who entered early and shorted Friday, and bring in a great number of breakout traders. I am anticipating (the key word is anticipating!) this will be a major bull trap and price will reverse. The confirmation will be if price does retrace and takes the 4,544 level. If so, this is no longer a dip to buy, and entering shorts on retrace will be difficult because the market makers are likely to reprice aggressively away from their trap at the top. It may seem like a dump to 4,544 compared to 4,557 isn't very significant, being 13 points after all, forming just another "higher highs lower lows" expansion pattern. But what taking 4,544 shows, in reality, is that the biggest money now wants to take sell stops and begin to capitalize on "The Big Short." The first target for August, if this pans out, will be the 4,411.25 level. It looks really far away on the chart, but it's only 200 points. Only 5 percent. Compared to last year's volatility and ranges, it's not really that big of a deal, especially for a while month. You've just been Pavloved to follow the ring of a bell. Moreover, the 4,411 level is also July's low. A factor that I believe may lead to the destruction of the markets is latent malignancy in the banking sector, with Charles Schwab being the standout problem, I chronicle below: Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? A lot of people are going to kill themselves buying the dip and getting stopped out and buying the dip again and getting stopped out again, if this all transpires according to the thesis. And people who don't use stops are going to get gapped down on. And those gap downs will be runaways that don't come back this time. Equities bulls are going to get gapped on like every day and have Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy '22-style meltdowns. However, if all of this does not transpire and price continues to reach over 4,700, then we can only say that the target the market makers really aspire for is ALL the liquidity over the 2021 all time highs circa 4,800. What we have is dueling possibilities, one far more likely than the other: topping being a lot more likely than a new all time high because the the environment is one where the Fed Funds Rate is going to be 6%+ by year end. But we need price action to confirm the theory. All of the above is my gift to you, as readers, followers, and even trolls. Our human race and this Planet Earth may really be in for an "early autumn" this year. The implications will shock not only the equities markets, but every aspect of our daily lives. I wish you all a bright future, but you have to believe and execute before you can see and harvest fruit. It's up to the individual to cultivate their hearts and minds accordingly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
9
QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early?I have an open call on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures that theorizes that the markets may have topped in terms of the perpetual bull run, but that we may also get a rip back towards/at new highs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? The process has been quite slow to play out so far, but the most dangerous thing for bulls with NQ is that 15,000 has not yet been broken. And yet we are rallying. Many people have been pining for new all time highs, and yet every equity has slowed down or been significantly bearish in the last two weeks. It's worth noting key macro points: 1. Fed rates are looking at tasting 6% by the end of the year 2. Jerome Powell says cuts aren't even considered until inflation becomes half of what it is 3. Dude said it will probably take years for this 4. Bond price goes down as yield goes up 5. Money leaves equities to seek yield in this environment 6. Divergences from the above are short signals, not buy for all time high signals And then there is the ever-accelerating collapse of the economy in Mainland China under the Communist Party. Things for the CCP, and for its leader Xi Jinping, are getting worse by the day. On top of economic problems the Party is facing are a litany of social problems, and the recent bout of exceptional and unprecedented flooding ravaging the country. The losses from the pandemic, from the economic calamity, and the natural disasters have weakened the Party significantly. A weak CCP can never invade Taiwan, and international spy agencies will all know this, and so whenever you're hearing "Taiwan War" you should immediately be suspect. What if the idea is to take control of Mainland China via Taiwan as the CCP falls, instead? What will happen to the international markets that day? Will they go up, or will they crash? So, here's a look at QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF that you can trade 0-Day options on. From the looks of today's price action it would seem as if the bottom was in. And it may very well be. This is a really key point. Friday may really well have been the bottom and we may be looking at a reversal. But there's some key points to consider for bulls. One is that in the Nasdaq call, I point out that NQ raided its January of 2022 failure pivot before the correction. QQQ has not done that yet, and this leads us to believe that $390 is a very likely target in the immediate future. Remember that upside should happen fast, since JP Morgan is bigly long SPX 4,200 puts that expire on September 29, and has been underwater since the quarter rolled over at the end of July. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' However, it's also very strange if we're going to see a bounce as massive as $390, that the end of July failure swing didn't result in at least one downside stop being taken out. Note that today, Monday, was a day with no news drivers, while there is retail sales and Empire Manufacturing Index Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and no news driver on Friday, which is also monthly options expiry. The critical Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting is also August 23 and 24, next week. Last year, Jackson Hole is what started a major correction that lasted until October. So what to expect? Instead of a reversal in fortune being so easy, I would imagine we see a raid of QQQ $360/Nasdaq 14,900 this week before we bounce. After that, it will be long only until QQQ $385, is my trade thesis. But keep in mind $390 does not have to be taken. $385 is a potential area of reversal and $391 is an area that only has to print one contract before there's a correction. So, thanks for reading. The TL;DR is this Buy a raid under $360-355. Probably just under $360. Long only until $385. Get "Big Short" over $390 or on a reversal pattern between $385 and $388. Good luck.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LordWrymouth
1
DOW JONES US30 :BULLS DEFENDING THEIR ZONEThe Dow closed 540 points higher on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 1.8% and 2.2%, respectively, boosted by a sharp rebound in regional banks and solid jobs report that tempered fears of a recession. PacWest and Western Alliance rebounded sharply by 81.7% and 49.3%, leading regional banks’ gains after JPMorgan upgraded Western Alliance, Zions Bancorp and Comerica in a note and stated the three banks appear “substantially mispriced” in part due to short-selling activity. Also, investors welcomed positive earnings from Apple, pushing its stock up 4.7%. On the data front, the US nonfarm payrolls and wage growth accelerated more than expected in April indicating that the US economy remains strong, challenging the expectation that the Federal Reserve rate-hike cycle would end. On a weekly basis, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.5% and 0.9%, while Nasdaq gained 0.1% and hit its 37-week high. Technical (1) 31500 and 32615 are the next possible buying zones where Bulls will attack the Bears. The Maket Bias is Bullish, but the momentum is slowing down....(profit taking) Inceasing volume and higher momentum will bring back the DOW to 34597 (1) . The volume has more powerfull shifts, meaning that more participants start to push DOW higher. In case the Bulls hold this zone the next taget will be 35659 ( 2) and then 36968 (3) FED´s Plan could send DOW 45099( Target1) probably in 2nd Quarter 2024 and to 54695 (Target2) in 2025-2026 (4) Profit Taking over the weekend could send DOW at the beginning of the next week to 32473. (5) In case the Maket loses this zone the next retracement aea will be 31464 (6) Last Resort: Eveything below 31287 will be the last chance for the Bulls to defend their positions 30880 30332 29164 28651 SHORT SET-Up: If the Market breaks this area ,then the Bears will aggessively take control over the market. The pice will soar to around 24000 very fast ( See 7) and losing that zone will bring Dow back to 22598 and then 20593 (See 8)
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by DaveBrascoFX