DOW
DOW JONES: Technical pull-back possible inside the Channel Up.Dow Jones is highly overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 74.321, MACD = 411.840, ADX = 51.669) and coupled with the price approaching R1 (35,530) and R2 (35,885), which form a HH Rejection Zone, the probability of a technical pull-back strengthens.
HH bullish legs inside the Channel Up get rejected after reaching a +6% rise, so even on that parameter, Dow is close. The 1D RSI is also almost on the HH trendline. Consequently we are going short, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,400).
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (22/07/2023)The EW count shows an ending upward structure. However, depending on what we get next week, alternative EW counts are possible. Investors should wait for the pullback to buy again. Now we are rather in area to take profit. Traders should analyze the lower timeframe.
Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (22/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
US30 ShortThe analysis aims to highlight the potential downside risks and factors that could contribute to a decline in the market during this period.
Market Overvaluation:
One of the primary concerns supporting the bearish stance is the perceived overvaluation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Throughout the past few quarters, the market has witnessed an extended rally, leading to inflated asset prices. This has created a situation where the market might be due for a correction or even a more significant reversal.
Economic Uncertainty:
The global economic landscape may contribute to downward pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the specified range. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and geopolitical events could create uncertainty in the markets, prompting investors to adopt a risk-off approach and exit long positions.
Inflationary Pressures:
Persistently rising inflation can exert negative pressure on the stock market. A surge in inflation can lead to concerns about potential interest rate hikes by central banks, which might dampen investor sentiment and drive market participants towards safer assets.
Technical Indicators:
Analyzing technical indicators can further support the bearish outlook. For example, if we observe declining volume alongside declining prices, it may signal a lack of conviction from buyers and potential weakness in the market.
Sector-Specific Weakness:
Within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, certain sectors might exhibit weakness, leading to a drag on the overall index. Disruptions in supply chains, weakening consumer spending, or regulatory challenges can weigh on specific sectors, influencing the overall market sentiment.
Profit-Taking and Rotation:
Given the prolonged bull market, investors may decide to lock in profits from their existing positions, causing sell-offs and leading to a potential rotation of funds into other assets. This rotation could result in reduced demand for equities, including those within the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Conclusion:
Based on the bearish analysis, a short signal for the Dow Jones Industrial Average within the specified range of 35,420 to 35,455 could be justified. However, it's crucial to remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable, and trading decisions should be made with careful consideration of risk management strategies. Traders and investors should always conduct thorough research and be vigilant about any potential changes in market conditions.
DOW JONES is starting a 1 year Expansion phase.Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end.
As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later!
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 20/07/2023In the 1 hour, it looks like the DOW is close to finishing an impulse to the upside. If we see the fifth wave ending with divergence, traders can initiate a short (against the main direction). A safer way to trade is to wait for the wave ((ii)) pullback and go long from there.
DOW JONES Starting to turn into sell with overbought RSIDow Jones crossed over even Resistance 1 (34950) and is getting very close to the top of the Channel Up.
Along with the RSI (1d) entering the 70.00 overbought zone, the index is starting to give the first sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell from the current market price to Resistance 2 (35535).
Targets:
1. 34150 (potential contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. Every Higher High rejection inside this Channel Up was made on a Double Top could. That's the reason for us providing a sell range.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 19/07/2023In the 1 hour, it looks like the DOW is close to finishing an impulse to the upside. If we see the fifth wave ending with divergence, traders can initiate a short (against the main direction). A safer way to trade is to wait for the wave ((ii)) pullback and go long from there.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 18/07/2023In the 1 hour, it looks like the DOW is close to finishing an impulse to the upside. If we see the fifth wave ending with divergence, traders can initiate a short (against the main direction). A safer way to trade is to wait for the wave ((ii)) pullback and go long from there.
DOW JONES: Short term trade.Dow Jones has formed a Triangle pattern on the 4H timeframe with the technical outlook primarily bullish (RSI = 63.320, MACD = 81.030, ADX = 45.324) as the rise in the past 7 days has been very aggressive. We will take a short term trade on Dow following the breakout outside the Triangle.
Over it, we will buy and target the dotted HH trendline (TP = 34,800) while under it we will sell and target the 4H MA50 (TP = 34,250).
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 17/07/2023In the 1 hour, it looks like the DOW is close to finishing an impulse to the upside. If we see the fifth wave ending with divergence, traders can initiate a short (against the main direction). A safer way to trade is to wait for the wave ((ii)) pullback and go long from there.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (15/07/2023)We updated the EW count for the DOW to align it better with the other indices. The updated count now shows an ending upward structure. Investors should wait for the pullback to buy again. Now we are rather in area to take profit. Traders should analyze the lower timeframe. Next week there might be both long and short opportunities.
DOW JONES Resistance breakouts can lead as high as 35500Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a 4 month Channel Up and today crossed above Resistance A (34575).
The attempts have been on the Support of the 4hour MA50.
The formation looks like the June 2nd- 5th breakout, which peaked at +5.75% from its bottom.
Apply careful confirmed buying. Short term target 34800. If Resistance B breaks, buy again and target 35500 (Resistance C).
Previous chart:
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Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (14/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 14/07/2023In the 1 hour, it looks like the DOW is close to finishing an impulse to the upside. If we see the fifth wave ending with divergence, traders can initiate a short (against the main direction). A safer way to trade is to wait for the wave (ii) pullback and go long from there.
DOW JONES getting closer to Resistance Zone for a technical sellIt's been a while since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI) and made the bottom buy on the Channel Up last Higher Low (chart below):
Right now the index is rising after a rebound on a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The dominant pattern is a Channel Up and the secondary a Diverging Channel Up (dotted lines) that forms a Higher Highs rejection zone within Resistance 1 (34530) and its top. We will look for a sell on the next candle inside it (ideally with the 1D RSI on its Resistance Zone) and target the bottom of the Channel Up at 33650 near Support 1.
If however the price breaks above Resistance 2 (34950) and the MACD maintains the Bullish Cross it is forming today, we will open a buy and target 33500 (just below Resistance 3).
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 13/07/2023In the 1 hour, it looks like the DOW is close to finishing an impulse to the upside. If we see the fifth wave ending with divergence, traders can initiate a short (against the main direction). A safer way to trade is to wait for the wave (ii) pullback and go long from there.