✅US30 WILL KEEP FALLING|SHORT🔥
✅US30 is trading in a
Downtrend and the index
Made a good pullback
From the resistance cluster
So I am bearish biased
And I think that we will see
A further move down
After some local correction
To the upside on the
Smaller timeframes
SHORT🔥
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DOW
SPX - DJI - NDX - Going higher after small pullback ?Interest rate decision is in less than 15min and a 25bps hike is expected.
Markets have run ahead of it this week so a small pullback is likely but as long as prices stay above the dotted Invalidation levels, there's nothing to worry and we should resume higher tomorrow probably.
From a risk/reward perspective, I think it's a good idea to look to go long, may it be relatively strong individual names or simply buying the indexes.
It's also a good idea to go for some select names in the crypto space, like BTC, ETH or some newer ones like OP, CFX and VIB.
DOW a short term upwards move? 🦐DOW on the 4h chart after the recent low is trading at the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
The market cretes 2 equal lows with a lower spike in the middle that can also be seen as a inverted head and shoulder pattern.
The current situation makes us think that a further move to the upside can be seen in this last trading day of the week and IF the market will break above we can look for a short term long order according to the Planctonì's strategy rules.
Will the FOMC continue the US30s run higher?Traders will be looking forward to today’s FOMC seeking future direction on rates as inflation starts to cool but remains high. The new banking crisis has also significantly influenced the markets over the last several weeks.
Stocks have been one of the markets hardest hit by the uncertainty thrown up by the banking crisis. The US30, in particular, has been hard hit, and sellers cut just over 7% off the index in four weeks.
Looking at recent price action, we can see some buyer confidence returning after bailouts, and political action was taken to help stop the rout. The US30 held support and broke its tight range yesterday with a 0.98% rally.
Inflation and rates had been key influences before the banking issues arose. Today’s FOMC could play an important role in the short term. Rates are now basically priced in with a 25-point increase, and Fed trackers see a 15% chance of a hold at an 85% chance of a 25-point increase.
The statement for us is the important part unless we see a hold which would be unexpected and should give the US30 a boost through its trendline. If the Fed remains hawkish and discounts the banking issues, this could set off selling with worry over higher rates and possible inaction to support the sector. If the message is more to the dovish side, we will be looking for further upside from the new up leg, and hopefully, a break of the current trend could show signs that the correction could be starting to wain.
Minor resistance remains at 32,600, and support is seen at 31,850. Price continues to hold a series of LHs and LLs, but a new push higher could break that pattern.
The short term comes down to the fed message, which will be released at 05:00 am AEDT with the Federal funds rate. The press conference follows at 05:30 am.
DOW JONES Sell the rejection, buy the breakout.Dow Jones is above the MA50 (4h), approaching the Falling Resistance of the February 14 Top.
It also is on the 0.382 Fibonacci level, so a rejection is quite probable.
The long term bottom though is in as the price is rising on a Triple Bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell the Resistance rejection.
2. Buy a break over Fibonacci 0.5 and MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 32100 (MA50 (4h)).
2. 33600 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is rising steadily on Higher Lows. This shows a sustainable move and serious attempt to break the Falling Resistance this time.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this long term trading plan:
DOW JONES has started the new bullish wave.This is basically to last week's buy signal at the bottom:
As you see Dow Jones (DJI) made a new Lower Low (bottom) on the 4-month Channel Down and broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again. The move is supported by a Higher Lows Zone (as is the RSI), similar to the previous Channel Down Low in late December. With the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow always unleashing volatility, we can see one last pull-back and then rebound towards the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and our 33100 Target.
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DOW JONES Huge Inverse Head and Shoulders aiming at the 2022 HigDow Jones/ US30 is rebounding after approaching the 1week MA200. This is a major Support that held on June 2022.
That low can be viewed as the Left Shoulder of a giant Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and the current low as its Right Shoulder.
Target the bottom of Support Zone A at 35350.
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Dow Jones Index (US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week
Here is my latest structure analysis and key levels to watch this week on Dow Jones.
Support 1: 31420 - 31830 area
Support 2: 30690 - 30900 area
Support 3: 30070 - 30360 area
Resistance 1: 32250 - 32610 area
Resistance 2: 33430 - 33660 area
The market is currently stuck between Support 1 & Support 2.
The market participants are awaiting the interest rate decision on Wednesday.
It will most likely clarify the future direction of the market with a breakout.
Consider the underlined structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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forget about the economic dataRecently investors started to care about economic data too much.
Always advanced economic data is making the market, not the current data.
Of course right now is very bearish cycle.
But Dollar is getting weak and Powell is very dovish and stating the disinflation's possibility.
We have to predict May's data not the March's.
Data dependant investing always lead to the failure.
I think the economy will move as what the Fed is wanted now near future.
I see a reversal Head and shoulders pattern from DJI.
I am bullish from now on.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20
During the week, the formation of A-A1 rotation offered rotational
play opportunity.
Demand has built up, with weekly bar showing loss of selling
momentum. But it takes time for the vessel to turn, so wait for
support to manifest before going long
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play between 31750 - 32600 (approx 850pts range)
2) Continuation long = long on retracement, to test 33590
3) Short if 31747 was broken through and becomes resistance
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Higher vol, narrower spread down bar close off low
= reduced downward momentum
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward off (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789 31747
31097 30513
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Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES: Rejection on the 4H MA50 keeping it neutralDow Jones found Support on the S1 Zone as we called last week (see idea at the end) and closed 4 straight candles inside it. The 1D time-frame remains technically red (RSI = 37.784, MACD = -381.660, ADX = 48.656) and the rejection on the 4H MA50 is keeping the price at bay. This appears to be like the rejection on December 21st 2022, which kept the price inside an Ascending Triangle before a rise to the top of the Channel Down. We will maintain our bullish persctive within this patternand target P1 (TP = 33,450).
Prior call:
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Buying power of Gold, measured in Dow Stock Market unitsGold priced in dow, 100 years plus.
If gold was a stock, would you buy low? asking for a friend.
Historically, this ratio has market relative highs in lows and captured conditions of money system.
When the debt based system bottlenecks and needs more money, gold is repriced.
Gold doesnt do anything. the dollar is the culprit.
The dollar matrix is real. Go watch that movie again but think in a dollar matrix as an energy zapper.
Enjoy the nightmares.
DOW JONES is forming a bottom, aiming at the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones (DJI) is trading sideways for the 4th straight 1D candle on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down. As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, similar to the September 27 bottom, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) to form the 1st Bearish Cross since that bottom, we treat this as a strong medium-term buy opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 and 33100. We need a closing above the 1D MA50 to justify further uptrend as that level rejected the index on March 06.
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DJI - World's End Scenario - short to 200 MMARevisiting this scenario where 1929 style crash fractal is overlayed with current market structure.
It was just an excercise and not a prediction but having reviewed the data again and considered Robert Prechter's Fibonacci predictions about the end of Super Cycle wave 5 I am giving it another chance with a speculative short.
The short initiate at break of support and will initially act as a hedge to target the 200 Monthly MA / $18k (50% drawdown). Stop at $35,500 (3%)
Best, Hard Forky
The scenario set out last year with some minor corrections breaks down as follows:
- Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 lasted about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal .
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around (correction) Feb/March 23
- BEARISH DIVERGENCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation, (correction) with an uptick in RSI on the retrace. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same structure, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude would require some form of major catalyst destroying a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both long and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :)
Is it possible, well it has happened before :)
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
DJI - World's End Scenario
To everything there is a season ...To everything there is a season ... a time to cast away stones and a time to gather them ...
Stock markets do not need a great economic environment to rise noticeably.
When reality succeeds in outperforming low expectations, a sustainable tailwind is created.
In this sense, the MSCI World Index managed to deliver a very good start to the year despite mixed data.
Given the abundant evidence that equity markets are "ahead" of the reportings, earnings performance is useless as an indicator of upcoming equity market performance.
Equity markets look ahead and price in the likely future of the next 3 to 30 months.
And as long as the "pessimism of disbelief" influences investor sentiment, equity markets will continue to receive tailwinds in the form of positive surprises.
Already at the beginning of 2023, the stock markets sent the first signals that the accumulated pessimism from 2022 was slowly subsiding.
As a rule, a sceptical phase follows, which may well last longer - and gives the stock markets a good chance to rise sustainably.
As long as expectations remain low, reality can surprise positively without much effort.
My thought on this: Maybe we are in such a phase right now...
It is possible that the current situation and isolated banking crises should be seen in this context. Don't let the panic reports drive you crazy, trade the market. Things do not look that bad (yet). It is possible that the opposite pole, the most favourable entry point, will be reached shortly.
->No trading advice, use your own judgement.
Math matters again, stock index valuations reverting to mean avgmake math great again!
DJI dow in this chart failed to break out higher and now looking for fair value amid panic.
Credit Suisse, back in headlines today, banks getting balance sheet help, gold threatening higher.
Im sure there are many baby boomers who need their retirement that strong considering taking profits and taking 4-5% this month.
5% on bonds is like 20 PE with less risk.
20 pe in stocks comes with 30 to 50% potential if they dont keep growing.
businesses earning shrink in recession and PE valuations come down.
do the math.
DOW JONES 1st time RSI oversold since September. Buy.Dow Jones found Support on the 31710 level (Support 1) of the November 3rd Low.
The long term Pitchfork indicates that this is its bottom level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34350 (near Resistance 2). This is a similar impulse wave to June-July and October.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit the oversold barrier for the first time since September 30th.
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DOW JONES Don't get confused.It's starting a new multiyear rallyThis is a chart we've looked into in the recent past for Dow Jones (DJI) but amidst the recent uncertainty, we think it is necessary to refresh in order to keep things into a longer term perspective.
The time-frame is the 1W (weekly) where Dow is seen forming an Arc pattern on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which since the 2009 housing crisis bottom, has formed every time it corrected on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and rebounded (excluding of course the March 2020 COVID crash). On both of these occasions, this Arc pattern was an Accumulation Phase before a new multi-year rally.
The 1W RSI is also on a familiar pattern with those prior fractals, forming an Arc construct on a Lower Highs trend-line. Is this the final accumulation before Dow starts a new multi-year rally?
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Dowjones Couple of scenarios for potential downsidesHey Traders, above is a technical overview on US30 and the most important zones to watch. Dowjones broke an important support zone as a first potential scenario i will be considering a retrace of the breakout around 32500 as a first zone. in case of a fake out then the Second Scenario should be opted around 33000 supply and demand zone at the major trend which is also considered a psychological zone.
Dow going Down?The Dow is testing an intermediate support at 31776 but we're seeing a really nice potential pullback to an overlap resistance of 32490 which is also a 38% fib retracement.
A reversal from here could see prices drop all the way down to the next overlap support at 30285. It's worth noting that price has also crossed below the Ichimoku cloud suggesting that some bearish momentum might be on the cards.
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DOW JONES One month rise is startingDow Jones hit the bottom of the Channel Down and is immediately reacting with a rebound.
The price also closed above Support B. The RSI missed the oversold level by a narrow margin and this is identical with the September 27th market bottom.
Our medium term target is 33450 (Top of Channel Donwn and on top of the Harmonic Resistance).
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11 Trade Ideas Predicting The DJI Crash | Where Is The Bottom?The Dow Jones Industrial Averages index has been holding much, much better compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.
While the other two indexes have been down considerably since we started to predict the crash (18% SPX & 25% NDX), the Dow Jones (DJI) has gone down only by 12%.
This is the last one of this series of articles.
Feel free to relax as we get started!
Thanks a lot for your support.
---
Let's start with the chart above on the Monthly timeframe.
The DJI closed last month below EMA10 and it is now signaling lower.
We use EMA10 to gauge the short-term potential of a cryptocurrency trading pair, stock or chart.
So the short-term potential has gone bearish... This we normally say based on the daily (24 hours per candle) timeframe.
Since this is the monthly, each candle is ~30X stronger than the daily.
Which means that this very simple signal can yet be very strong.
---
We started in late January to look at the Dow Jones.
We don't need/use 100 indicators, the very simple moving averages for us are more than enough.
Here we saw that the Dow Jones is no exception, it was also set to drop!
(Jan. 24) The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is No Exception (Crash)
Two days later we looked at the famous 'Falling Wedge" pattern and compared it to 2020-2018...
This one on the monthly timeframe.
(Jan. 26) Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Chart Analysis (30%+ Crash)
We can appreciate how the DJI was looking better than the SPX and NDX...
Yet, the indicators, such as the MACD, gave it away!
(Jan. 28) The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Not All Red
Dead cat bounce, anyone?
Easy to tell... We stay conservative though to not scare you away.
How to prevent a crash if the Feds policy do not change?
A: Impossible
(Feb. 7) DJI Weak Bounce
And here too for the initial phases of the correction we look at the classic ABC.
(Feb. 11) DJI Crash Last Reminder
To me, the next one was the biggest give away of all.
The long-term cycles are very strong but what to say when an index loses a 20 years long support?
We are talking about the MACD on this one...
(Feb. 14) DJI And The 20 Year MACD Support
We step back to sum it all up...
It is possible that the DJI goes for a 50% or more drop... Who knows, let's ask the chart!
(Mar. 4) DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average (Additional 55% Drop)
By mid-March we shared the "bear-run"!
This is happening across all markets and will continue a bit longer before we see sustained/long-term growth.
(Mar. 13) DJI Bear Run
This is all for the major US Indexes.
We will go back to Bitcoin soon and then focus 100% on the Altcoins which is where the money grows.
---
In all, we published:
(1) 26 trade ideas for the SPX (all bearish).
(2) 14 trade ideas for the NDX (all bearish).
(3) 11 trade ideas for the DJI (all bearish).
For Bitcoin (BTCUSD), we share the Macro/Long-Term view as well as the short-term bounces/moves when prices go up.
You can count on us being here by the time the bottom is reached and when we hit $300,000 or more in 2025 and beyond.
Namaste.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
Short on reject of 32789 offered very good returns for those who were able to trade
during the US afternoon hours.
Ease of movement to the downside observed.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on test and reject of 32789, possible target 31100
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward low (non-trend changing)
Daily: Low vol E=R down bar (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
