DOW JONES Aggressive bullish reversal expectedDow Jones (DJI) broke below its Pivot Zone and Higher Lows trend-line and as per our strategy published 2 weeks ago, we took that break-out sell opportunity:
With the 4H RSI though printing Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows (i.e. a Bullish Divergence) and the price approaching the 32480 Support level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which both provided Support and started aggressive rebounds on November 09 2022 and December 20 2022, Dow is turning into a medium-term (at least) buy opportunity again.
In fact the very same RSI Bullish Divergence formed the December 20 Low. It is important to add that this Low was formed after a 4H Death Cross, a pattern that we already formed again 2 days ago.
We are buyers again on Dow, targeting the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Then we will either wait for a pull-back or buy when the price breaks above the Pivot Zone and re-tests it as Support, in similar fashion as on January 06 2023 and January 23 2023. Long-term target 34300.
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DOW
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Key Levels and Market overview for the Asian session open 24/02A review of the price action from the European session and recap of US price action as US indexes followed on from some strength this time in the Asian and European trade. The US gapped up on the open, sold off hard only to bounce back into the close to wipe off the majority of the earlier losses. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
DOW ANALYSIS ON CAD/CHFDow Theory is one of the oldest and most widely used methods for technical analysis in the financial markets. It was developed by Charles Dow, the founder of the Wall Street Journal, and is based on his observations of market trends in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The theory is based on the premise that the stock market moves in trends and that these trends can be analyzed and predicted by studying market price movements and trading volume.
According to Dow Theory, there are three types of market trends:
Primary Trend: This is the major trend in the market, lasting for several months to several years. It can be either bullish (rising) or bearish (falling) and is determined by a series of higher highs and higher lows (in an uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (in a downtrend).
Secondary Trend: This is a minor trend within the primary trend, lasting for several weeks to several months. It is a counter-trend move that retraces a portion of the primary trend. In an uptrend, a secondary trend would be a temporary pullback or correction, while in a downtrend, it would be a temporary rally.
Minor Trend: This is the smallest trend within the primary and secondary trends, lasting for a few days to a few weeks. It represents the daily fluctuations in the market and is often influenced by news and other short-term events.
Dow Theory also states that the market is made up of three types of movements:
Primary Movements: These are the long-term movements that define the primary trend.
Secondary Movements: These are the medium-term movements that retrace a portion of the primary trend.
Minor Movements: These are the short-term movements that represent the daily fluctuations in the market.
Dow Theory is used by technical analysts to identify trends and potential trend reversals in the market. It is often used in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, oscillators, and chart patterns, to confirm signals and make trading decisions.
DOW JONES Trading plan based on the MA50 4H.Dow Jones is holding the Channel Up since December and on Friday it came the closest to the bottom in 1 month.
There is a potential Channel Down emerging and the key to which pattern prevails will be the MA50 4H.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell below the MA50 4H.
2. Sell if the price breaks under the Channel Up.
3. Buy above the MA50 4H.
4. Buy at the bottom of the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 33470 (bottom of Channel Up).
2. 33000 (above Support 1).
3. 34500 (below Fibonacci 0.786).
4. 34850 (below Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI is supported in a similar way like December-January. That kick started a strong rise. Break below and the pattern might be negated.
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DOW JONES Rectangle for short term. Channel Up for long term.Dow is in ranging mode on the short term inside a Rectangle. The 4hour MA50 is almost at the middle, so crossing above it is a long signal: Target 34250. Below it is a short signal: Target 33550.
On the long term the structure remains a Channel Up, in fact the price came very close last week to its bottom. If the price breaks the bottom it is a sell: Target 32965. If the Channel holds, it is a buy: Target 34750.
Observe how the 4hour RSI shows well enough the best entries for the Channel Up and for the Restangle alike.
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DOW ANALYSIS ON MONARO/USDThe Dow Theory is a well-known financial theory developed by Charles Dow, the founder of Dow Jones & Company, in the late 19th century. The theory suggests that the market is in an upward trend if one of its averages, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), advances above a previous important high and is accompanied or followed by a similar advance in another average. This phenomenon is known as "confirmation" and is seen as a bullish signal by investors. According to the Dow Theory, if the DJIA and DJTA are both moving in the same direction, it suggests a strong economy, as companies are producing goods and shipping them to consumers. Conversely, if one average is moving in one direction and the other in the opposite direction, it can signal a weakening economy. Overall, the Dow Theory is still widely followed by investors today as a way to analyze market trends and make informed investment decisions.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 FEB 20
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 FEB 20
Finally we see some movement from Dow.
34605-34432 rotational play based on 06 Feb's analysis garnered.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotational play: Trades can be executed at boundary of rotation
range 34605 / 32789.
Note: 34605-34432: If market trades toward the upper boundary =
possibility of breakout
2) Rotational breakout/breakdown:
- If price breakout, long when price retraces and finds support
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close below middle = minor supply
Daily: Ave vol up bar, demand overcoming supply = demand
H4: Ave vol up bar close toward high = minor demand
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34432-34605
33624 33037- 32789
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Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES Take advantage of this excellent channel!Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up for the past three weeks. With the use of the Fibonacci Channel we clearly see the heavy varience levels within 0.236 - 0.786. We will buy low and sell high for as long as the pattern remains valid.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current 4H candle.
2. Sell at 34300.
3. Buy at 33900.
4. Sell at 34400.
Targets:
1. 34300.
2. 33900.
3. 34000.
4. 33950.
Tips:
1. The 4hour RSI is inside a range that matches perfectly the highs and lows of the Channel. Use it for additional confirmation of entries/ exits.
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DOW JONES: Simple buy low, sell high inside the Channel Up.Dow is bullish on both the 4H (RSI = 52.865, MACD = 54.270, ADX = 29.792) and the 1D (RSI = 53.777, MACD = 101.160, ADX = 20.876) time frames but not on a wide margin. This is because it has been on a rather controlled rise inside a Channel Up since December 20th (only broken once).
For the past 3 weeks every 4H MA200 pull back has been the most optimal buy entry, so use the next one near 33,750, as close to the RSI's range bottom as possible, and TP = 34,600.
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Dow Disbelief RallyIt has been over two years since the COVID crash and despite people sharing 2008 fractal patterns, traders' expectations of a stock market crash have yet to be realized. In fact, recent chart patterns for the Dow Jones and NAS100 suggest that bottoming patterns are emerging. For further technical analysis of the NAS100, please refer to:
Notably, the Dow Jones has recently given a buy signal on stochastic momentum, though it is advisable to wait for monthly closure to confirm.
Historical analysis indicates that whenever both signal lines close above the 40 level, some sort of bull market emerges. This signal has fired off 13 times since 1995, producing an average 24% move to the upside, with an average time frame of 276 days from signal to local top. Assuming a 24% move from current levels, the DOW is expected to reach 1.618 42268.
Based on the chart evidence, it appears that the probability of a rally to the upside is higher than that of a 2008-style stock market crash, at least not within the next six months, barring any unforeseeable black swan event.
DOW30- Will CPI data trigger a break and a push above 35k?After the double bottom under 29k and a break above descending trend line resistance, Dji has started to consolidate (as if it was waiting for Nas100 and SP500 to catch up, and now are all aligned:) ).
Technically, the picture is bullish and crystal clear, with a price waiting for a trigger to break above the triangle's resistance.
CPI could provide this trigger and, in such an instance, bulls could push Dow above 35k.
P.S: I don't think we are out of the woods and this optimism will last, but I've learned to now argue with the market
DOW JONES Still ranged. Keep scalping for maximum profits.Dow Jones (DJI) followed the exact trading plan that we published last Wednesday as it rebounded on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and today reached the Resistance Zone of 34300 - 34370(August 16 and January 15 Highs respectively). This keeps it neutral as we expected within the rough 33640 - 34180 Scalping Range:
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has assumed the role of the Pivot and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that of the Support (all candles closed above it). Our short-term trading plan remains scalping this range for as long as the price remains/ re-enters inside it. On the more medium-term, above the green Pivot Zone we are buyers targeting 34300, while below the Higher Lows trend-line we are sellers targeting 32700 (above the 32480 Support). Similarly, we will take the buy break-out if the price breaks the 34370 January 15 High and target the 34910 December 13 High.
Keep in mind that this Higher Lows trend-line is what helped us take this accurate buy entry 4 weeks ago as you can see on the chart below:
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Key Levels on Major Indexes for the coming Asian sessionA look at the key areas of interest for major markets and what we could be looking for. Levels and price action analysis for :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
USD
U Bonds
US30 (DOW JONES) The idea is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. The current upward move is to be marked as wave X correction which means a wave Y will unfold driving the prices much lower. The wick at 34895 can be marked as Invalidation for this analysis.
DOW JONES Channel Up. Strong buy, two targets.Dow Jones is rebounding on its 4Hour MA200, having been ranged effectively for the past 2 weeks. The pattern is a Channel Up since December 20th and the 2 week consolidation is similar to the one at the start of the Channel Up. It ended up to an aggressive Higher High wave. We have a first Target at 34150 and a second at 34550. Further confirmation is needed for higher prices as the Resistance Zone A above rejected the November rally.
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DJI potential for bullish rise to previous highLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a buy entry at 33704.98, where the support is. Stop loss will be at 32948.93, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34712.28, where the previous high is.
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DOW JONES Triangle trades and breakoutsDow Jones is trading within a Triangle pattern that starting forming on November 3rd.
So far we have have several rejections within its Lower Highs zone and rebounds within its Higher Lows zone.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price touches the Higher Lows zone.
2. Sell when the price touches the Lower Highs zone.
Targets:
1. The bottom of the Lower Highs zone.
2. The top of the Higher Lows zone.
Tips:
1. If the price breaks above each Resistance, buy and target the next one. Vice versa, sell if the price breaks below each Support and target the next one.
2. The RSI is trading within its own Triangle. A breakout can be a leading indicator as to where the price will break as well.
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DOW JONES Scalping range emerged and our medium-term plan.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected yesterday following Powell's speech as the Resistance Zone of 34300 - 34370 held (August 16 and January 15 Highs respectively), we expect it to turn neutral for a while and trade sideways within the rough 33640 - 34180 Scalping Range illustrated on the chart.
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has assumed the role of the Pivot and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that of the Support. Our short-term trading plan is to scalp this range for as long as the price remains/ re-enters inside it. On the more medium-term, above the green Pivot Zone we are buyers targeting 34300, while below the Higher Lows trend-line we are sellers targeting 32700 (above the 32480 Support). Similarly, we will take the buy break-out if the price breaks the 34370 January 15 High and target the 34910 December 13 High.
Keep in mind that this Higher Lows trend-line is what helped us take this accurate buy entry 3 weeks ago as you can see on the chart below:
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DOW on a bullish price action 🦐The Dow Jones Index is currently facing resistance at the 34,200 level, and the recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has created a bullish sentiment in the market.
The trendline for the index appears to be ascending and if the index were to break above the 34,200 resistance level, it could signal a buying opportunity for investors according to Plancton’s strategy.
The market's reaction to Powell's speech and the potential for a break above the resistance level are important factors for traders to consider in their decision-making.
DOW JONES: Triangle break showing the directionDow Jones is supported on its 1D MA50 but the Triangle pattern since December is keeping it neutral. This is evident both on the 4H (RSI = 45.787) as well as the 1D technicals (RSI = 50.080, MACD = 100.970, ADX = 28.781). As all candles, even the two instances that broke above, have closed inside the Triangle, we will go long or short when it breaks out and closes.
The Resistance and Support levels/ zones are clear on the chart. A price cross closing over the Triangle is a buy (TP = 35,350) just under R1 and a price closing under the Triangle is a sell (T{ = 32,550) just over S1.
Pay attention to the 1D RSI which is within its own Triangle. A breaking may be a leading indicator to the price break out.
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US30 SELLI am currently in a us30 sell
Reasons:
-I see a failed W
-Market already filled gap on febuary 3rd at 23:03
-Market broke current 5 min and 15 min support levels
-Market is respecting 5 and 15 min resistance
-We are in supply zone on 15min, 30min and 1 hour time fame
-My brain subconsciously recognizes a high probability pattern
Trade at your own risk.
Use low risk
US30 Outlook 2/5US30 price action hasn't been pretty over the last week, I still see reasons for it to appreciate, but I think the low of last week could be taken out first. Either way I don't love the PA and probably wont be trading it in the short term.
