DOW JONES The High volatility zone continues to pay offThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) followed our previous call (almost) 3 weeks ago to perfection as after trading within the Triangle, it broke to the upside and hit the 34300 target:
The strong rejection of this week simply validates the argument that we've made since November, that the blue zone will be a High Volatility region for Dow as it is a confluence of major Support (Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line), Resistance (34300 August 16 High) and MA levels (1D MA300 and 1D MA50 (yellow and blue trend-lines respectively)).
It is now testing the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, which if successful can make another trip to 34300. But if it doesn't hold, the real medium-term Support Zone is within the former Lower Highs trend-line and (mostly) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has already held once successfully on December 20. A break below targets the 31725 Support (1) first and (on a much less likely scenario) the 30100 Support (2) in extension.
But why give away our 1D RSI blue-print and the symmetricality of each bullish - bearish phase that has been holding exceptionally well since the February 24 2022 bottom? As we explained in detail in our previous analysis, each bearish phase has been around 250 (4H) candles i.e. roughly 60 days. Considering that this is not a Bear Cycle bearish leg as it is obviously more sideways than making Lower Lows, we should be seeing an end of this phase by the 2nd week of February, if not earlier.
Based on the 1D RSI though, it has already started to form the bottoming process (green rectangle) as shown by the previous sequences. As a result, investors should be more patient with such drops and willing to buy the pull-back at this stage, than looking to short to Lower Lows.
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DOW
US30 to find support at previous lows?DOW30 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 32845 (stop at 32645)
Continued downward momentum from 34358 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 32845 from 34358 to 33784.
We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 32845 from 32437 to 34347.
Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Our profit targets will be 33370 and 33470
Resistance: 33200 / 33570 / 34034
Support: 32845 / 32812 / 29068
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Crowded Dow giving back some and sp500 at 200 day MA sellersRare to see the dow index be the leader on the downside.
Sp500 at 200 day moving average , again.
Vix relatively low for the range in last year.
percentage of stock above 200 and 50 day moving averages also both at top of the relative range for year.
price discovery at work!
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 33418.59, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32573.43, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34712.28, where the previous swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DOW JONES: Why bother when the long-term is so clear?The Dow Jones Index on the 1W chart technically got above the neutral point only last week (RSI = 59.193, MACD = 453.990, ADX = 36.049), which on the long-term (year to year basis) are levels the market deem good enough to buy.
The price is establishing the 1W MA50 as its new long-term Support and if we draw the log Channel Up of Dow since the bottom of the 2008 real estate bubble, we see that every time it gained back the 1W MA50 after a 1W MA200 test, a new rally started. From a Higher High to Higher High stand-point, the date range is similar (minimum 1120 days, maximum 1365). According to that model, the next Higher High can be around July 2025 max.
On a 1W MACD basis, this new rally could be more similar with the one that started in 2016, as both are rising after a double bottom. The Fibonacci channel tool adds great value at finding the projection of the trend as on this Channel Up make effective pivot levels.
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GOLD Forecast 2023Here is my perspective for the year 2023. Current price is 1925 & here I expect a change in the trend to turn bearish for the rest of the year. We may see some consolidation around 1550s before a trend continuation into low 1300s during early 2024
MP1 Dow entryKGN Dow theory entry on a weekly chart.
Have taken a position and will be looking to hold for 6-20 weeks.
Set stop loss under last trough.
Possible Daily Uptrend?Since JAN 22 we have been in a downtrend on US30, making LH's and LL's.
Recently, a CHoCH formed, creating a new HH and a possible HL.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 15YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 15
Dow was ranging mostly for the past 2 weeks. A
As market approaches previous rejection area, keep
stops tight. No demand on all 3 TF, temporary weakness
may be expected. Possibility of short on rejection
if market crawls upward and is rejected at higher
levels.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on rejection of 35228 / 34605
2) Long if test and accept at previous rotation 33663
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close at high = No Demand
Daily: Low vol level bar close toward high = No Demand
H4: Low vol narrow spread up bar close off high
= No demand
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35228 34416-34605
33663 32789 30513
28635
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
US30 LONGHi Traders,
A possibility for price to rise further upwards. Wait for entry at 33704 or a confirmation that break through the bullish channel will be better.
Entry Price: 33704
Target Price: 34427
Hit the Boost and Follow if u agree. Trade Safe!
Thank you.
US30 going upUS30 is setting up for a buy, been buying for the past few days, We have broken above the consolidation flag pattern. I think that when the current 1hr stick closes bullish, we could see more buys. The current setup show a retest for the continuation of the uptrend
Will US CPI continue to feed the risk rally?Eyes on today's CPI
Risk markets set the tone on Wednesday as traders reacted to hopes that Today’s CPI data will come in lower than expected. This could lead to small interest rate hikes and could even signal peak inflation.
We’re anticipating tonight’s data and if it will live up to the hype. How much has been factored in? Could it be a disappointment if it fails to meet what’s being expected?
It is simple. We see a solid beat to the downside we think risk markets will continue to rally. We see it come in as expected, or god forbid higher, and we think they will fall.
We have done a quick price action review on the USD index and US30. Major risk currencies look to be consolidating at this stage in the lead-up. The USD index is trying to hold out at 103.00.
US CPI data is due today at 12:30 am AEDT / 8:30 am ET.
DOW Head and ShouldersDOW has completed a head and shoulders pattern. We see this evident in the multiple breakouts confirming the pattern.
I suspect we will reach $59 before a pull back occurs. This is especially true if the SPY plays nicely with the DOW move.
Dow Jones (US30): Keep Buying! It Goes Higher
Classic bullish accumulation on Dow Jones.
The price has recently broken a daily supply zone and now goes higher.
Be prepared for a bullish movement to 34200
Bullish!
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DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my buy entry at 33418.59, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32581.97, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34595.51, where the recent swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US30 SHORT BIAS (UPDATED)!Hello beautiful people!
US30 video was deleted by the platform due to an error on my side, however the good news is i have analysed US30 to DATE!
Enjoy! :)
DOW before the Great Depression is a blue-print for todayOn the left you see Dow Jones after the Dotcom and Mortgage crises until today and on the right Dow from the late 1800s leading to the 1930-32 Great Depression, both on the 1M time frame. Do you notice any similarities?
The blue line is the 1M MA50 and the green line the 1M MA100. The Megaphone pattern that started the long term rallies on both is evident. Not as a forecast but for keeping some perspective, we added Bitcoin's price action (orange line).
One last 5-6 year mega rally may be in order before a greater market correction.
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DOW JONES: Holding above the 1D MA50.Dow Jones closed Friday clearly above the 1D MA50 (blue), switching its 1D technicals back to neutral/ bullish (RSI = 54.657, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 14.593). Following the Golden Cross on December 14h, the index is well supporting both on the former Lower Highs Resistance of the Bear Market as well as a Higher Lows line that started on the June 17th Low.
The latter fits the support of a potential Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that Dow may be trading in. As long as the 1D MA200 (orange) holds, the index targets the 35,400 - 35,800 Resistance Zone. If the 1D MA200 breaks, it targets the 30,200 - 29,700 Support Zone.
It is important to mention that the 1D MACD is on a Bullish Cross, historically a bullish medium-term signal.
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FEDEX #fdx - Fedex #fdx is in a clear sell/short range now. if the market is able to continue the momentum we could see #fdx reach 205/210 level but needs alot of liquidity to break resistance. the stock clearly respects the trend lines on the chart based on its history.
likely downside levels 120 short term, 106 and lastly below 100.
its best to wait and let it play out itself for the next 2 weeks to get clarity and possibly short for a good 50% return.
DOW JONES On familiar 1W MA50 Support, ready for a +50% rally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been holding the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, closing all weekly candles above it since November 07 2022. This on its own is a major bullish pattern, but if we look on a much long-term, decade long perspective, we can see an even higher significance it historically has on the price action.
As you see on this 1W time-frame, ever since Dow's recovery from the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and the first touch of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on August 2011, every time it bounces and recovers the 1W MA50, holding it as Support (blue circles), the index has grown from that bottom to the next top a minimum of +50% (with 55% of January 2018 being the maximum).
At the same time, the 1W RSI breaks above a Lower Highs trend-line. This time the RSI broke and even held and bounced off that Lower Highs trend-line (green arrow).
This chart shows that Dow Jones is no stranger to this pattern and technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we should be treating it as a major bullish signal. A potential new +50% 2-3 year rally puts the target at 49000.
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Selling DOW's early optimism.DOW30 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 33803 (stop at 33953)
A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 33803.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Although the anticipated move lower is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today.
Further downside is expected and we prefer to set shorts in early trade.
Bespoke support is located at 33310.
Our profit targets will be 33310 and 32760
Resistance: 33803 / 33987 / 34410
Support: 33310 / 32758 / 32441
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 33418.59, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32581.97, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34595.51, where the recent swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Dow 4hour say = fibo 61% is dow 1st target ,it can go to 38000STRONGLY ADVICE DONT PICK SELL ABOVE EMA200 DAILY 32700
dow frist want touch fibo61%=34200 but in next 6 month it can go to fibo 161% near 38000 so 90% looking for buy but very low size
good luck
