YM (Dow) UpdateI don't usually look at the Dow, but you can see that it has clearly broken the year long down channel.
That is bullish for the other indices.
DOW
Follow the DOW for clues....The DOW is the leader right now...and the saying "Don't fight the Fed" is still very much applicable. There is no pivot, inflationary pressures still exist and the 2022 moves in the US 10 year should not be taken lightly.
If you read over my last post (Nov 15th) you know we are following a path similar to the Dot com bust bear market except this time it will be labeled as the Bond bust.
DJI (DOW) continues to follow the 2000-2002 path of SMA's flattening out over time while SPX, RUT & NDX lag behind DJI. Obviously, no two bear markets are exactly the same but they can follow similar patterns.
In the 2000-2002 bear market you can see the 2 year battle between the bulls/bears wore them both out; just like we have seen over the past year. The 9 SMA or Tenkan Sen has crossed below the 15 & 30 SMA's just like they did during the dot com bust...we then proceeded to re-test the ATH after the crossing of these SMA's before more rejection. I warned in my last post the DJI would probably reach the 35,000 "ish" range and I still believe we will hit this area...I mean Santa is coming to town right? The areas of resistance for DJI are now 35,492.22; 35,824.28 & 36,952.65...I will begin to ladder into the sell side when we get above 35,000.
US 10 Year on a 6 month timeframe-This chart should scare the you know what out of any company or person with revolving credit! The continued hiking of interest rates is not "transitory".
Commodity Index-Inflationary pressures still exist in case you thought we've reached "peak inflation"....the weekly is one scary looking bull flag. Just takes another "event" and watch out.
DJI Dow Jones Short???Hello there!
Great news came out yesterday regarding the interest rates by May 2023. Regardless, a great pump in market yesterday. But with such actions opportunities arise that can be seen while charting the trend.
Here we have Dow Jones Industrial DJI shown:
- A previous falling wedge worked it self into a nice pump.
- Heading into correction territory.
- How do you find where the correction will retest and bounce?
-- Take a look at the previous Unclosed gad in green box at the 1HR chart. Gaps eventually will have to be closed.
-- Also take a look at the FIB where the 0.618 lands, right at the GAP.
What are your thoughts?
Thank you for taking a look. Cheers.
Get get DOW with itSo looking at the DXY, I still feel we are expecting 2 situation (yes the old up and down what can we do in the world of charting!) I'm being bearish , sorry bulls! We are still expecting a move down.
I have been stopped out of a large position because I was too eager to get my short in with high leverage. That's fine I will be risking a big short depending on how we finish the day. Friday naturally will be a key point. This DOW chart shows us in a downwards channel. Your thinking, idiot, consumer spending is big its Christmas how can you be so bearish? Lets see it play out, we still have big factors in the world that can trigger lots of downside.
Dow price targets simulated in chart ****** this chart was made a over a week ago ***** DOW is in a downward channel and a bearish ascending wedge. Key points for me. If you zoom out on the daily you can draw a trend line from the 16th as a support up to where we are now it connects to the target at 44. so between 44-48 will we see us retest this point before moving on.
Importantly, can someone tell me how Powells meeting gave the space a bullish sentiment? He always comes on the scene with wet paper speeches? However, everyone makes movements regardless of solid figures coming out? He literally stated we "maybe" able to fix the situation but the window is "very narrow", I don't understand how that gives people confidence.
Regardless, DXY is in a make of break position to fall to big support or blow up wards, I'm more inclined for a move down over the next few weeks to bring the DXY towards the 100/101 mark. However, a bounce up to 107/108 should happen first before we can make a decision on it's direction.
It's coming up to Christmas consumer spending will drive the markets ultimately IMO.
Hit me up with your thoughts lets brainstorm. No opinion is wrong do not be shy to express a feeling or information that you feel can change the space.
Dow Jones Average High is in. Bear market busy unfoldingit would appear. the first target down for DJIA is highlighted in blue on "the price chart". its not the time to be bullish. its to dangerous! the S&P500, NASDAQ are all in the same down trend lower.
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , demonstrating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my buy stop entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Apple Bullish Dragon at S/R Zone Bullish Above $145If AAPL can get and stay back above 145 we can very likely see it Break Above the Dragon Trendline and hit a Minimum of $163 but if it goes extremely well i could see it going to $193.32
I believ this will also help The Dow to completelky reach it's upside targetss as the Dow has been extremely strong and ahead of the SPX. Nasdaq 100, and Russel.
DOW JONES most likely topped at least short-termIt has been almost 6 weeks since Dow Jones (DJI) broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since the start of the year and the beginning of the 2022 correction. At the same time it broke above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which as we've mentioned numerous times was the barrier for a long-term bullish trend restoration:
As the price was basically rejected on the 34300 Resistance 1 (August 16 High), we can argue that the October - November rally has come to an end, with the price breaking below the Rising Wedge, while also the MACD on the 1D time-frame completed a Bearish Cross (red arrows). Unlike the previous counter trend rallies within the Bearish Megaphone, this time we may have the luxury to expect only a short-term pull-back, and not a new long-term selling sequence to a new market low.
As you see, we were correct for calling the area within the 34300 Resistance and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the former Bearish Megaphone, a 'No trade Zone'. A potential Support (and bounce point) can be that Lower Highs trend-line itself and if broken, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is traditionally the first Support during long-term uptrends. All this of course, assuming that the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which is supporting now, breaks. If not, we can see one last attempt to break and close above Resistance 1 (34300) and target Resistance 2 (35550).
On a side note, see how the 1D RSI has been printing a Top formation similar to late March - early April. Also the November 25 top came exactly 234 days after the October 02 Low, which is symmetrical to February - April.
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DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , demonstrating a bullish market. Looking for a buy stop entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Dow 1hour say: 35000 is upper target as I predict yesterday dow go down
if you have old sells, close all above fibo61%
We must buy above green arrow after pinbar comes , try hold it to new high ,filo 161%
BE CAREFULL FROM SELL, END OF YEAR +RALLY CAN START
wish you win
Crude Crash By Covid inChina Now Dow Will DownSELL Dow Around 34400 Will See DownSide of Around 1000 Points in This Month
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 28
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 28
Scenario1 continuation long was in place from Nov 07's analysis.
Weakness are appearing on all timeframes. Tighten stops on
long positions. Volume was thin due to US holidays. Expected
to remain thin as year end approaches.
Possible scenarios:
1) Temporary short if 34246-33800 is rejected
2) Stay out of market since volume is thin
3) Continuation long if 34246-33800 is supported
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35330 34246-33800
33106 31793
30513 28635
Weekly: ND on uptrend = minor weakenss
Daily: Declining volume + narrow spreads = weakness
H4: Supply observed
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES doing what it has always done through history. Rising.This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) on the log scale since the great depression of the 1930s. A lot of talk is being done lately on whether or not this recent rally is sustainable, or if the high inflation can cause a deeper correction etc. In order to put things into perspective it is always useful to look into the longer term charts, preferably on a multi-year horizon.
This is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where we've applied the Fibonacci Channel and its retracement levels on this 90 year price action. It is easy to realize that the Fibonacci levels have historically created zones of Support and Resistance. Right now, and despite the 2022 correction (Bear Market), Dow is within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib, which is part of the larger 0.382 - 0.618 Fib Zone, which we call "Healthy Bull Zone" as when the index stays within it, it tends to rise on healthy growth levels.
To make things more interesting, Dow's early January top (All Time High) and subsequent rejection was made exactly on the 0.618 Fib. It shouldn't be a surprise that the recent October low and the subsequent rebound was made on the 0.5 Fib. This is a Support trend-line that 2017 only broke once during the 2020 COVID crash (which remarkably touched the 0.382 Fib and rebounded). In this 5 years Dow has been rising sustainably within this tight top half of the Healthy Bull Zone.
In fact, when the index trades within two levels tightly, it tends to do so for a very long time. Such periods are indicated by the blue ellipse patterns and besides the 2017 - 2022 one, we can see another 6 major periods.
As a result we can argue that right now Dow Jones is doing "what it always done through history" and that is rise sustainably within a tight Fibonacci zone long-term. This makes the index as bullish as it ever was.
Some added facts on this Channel. As you see we've categorized the zones based on the likely outcome they can provide. Next to the Healthy Bull Zone we see the Oversold (0.382 - 0.236 Fib) and Overbought (0.618 - 0.786 Fib) Zones, which is where the index presents a rare buy and sell opportunity respectively. In fact the 2008 Housing Crisis put us in an oversold position most recently and before that it was the 1987 Black Monday event. At the top of the Channel we have the 0.786 - 1.0 Fib 'Collapse Zone', where a mega collapse event is likely, and the index has only been there at the height of trading before the Great Depression. At the bottom of the Channel we have the 0.236 - 0.0 Fib 'Once in a life time buy opportunity Zone', which as you can imagine is the extremely oversold region where Dow has historically been the most attractive level to buy. The very bottom (March 2009) of the Housing Crisis marginally pierced through and before that (again marginally) the 1987 Black Monday.
** It is worth noting that from 1974 to 1986, the market traded almost entirely within this extremely oversold Fib zone. It was when the U.S. were ravaged by extremely high inflation levels (aftermath of the Vietnam war among others), with many sceptics today comparing the present day to that era.
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dowjones 4hour : all scenario on dow 1-70% go down and touch support and go up to fibo161
2-30% go down break support and go downer
above green arrow after pinbar come on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart we must buy Sl: pinbar low and hold to new high ok?
if you have old sell,you must close all or hedge them in fibo50 33760-33770...dont forget dow,index, dax sp500 and gold love buy and uptrend so sell on them is very very dangerous..check weekly chart exactly
note: as predict 10 days ago in low dow can go to 35000 even 3600 so be careful from sell and 90% looking for buy
ALERT: END OF YEAR UP TREND RALLY ON INDEX LIKE DAX NASDAQ SP500 AND DOW CAN START
good luck
DOW WOWHonestly can't believe I've missed this 20% dow rally. I had the bottom drawn up was so many technicals here to create a bounce but I wasn't monitoring it at the time and its lead to this EPIC rally over the past month. the bottoms clearly in for now. I expect a pul back soon but im not expecting it to go any lower. in my opinion the bottom is in and the fed pivot looks like its being priced in
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation The overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, demonstrating a bullish market. Looking for an immediate buy entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located, The previous swing high, or 35492.22, will serve as the take-profit point.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 24th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . Looking for an immediate buy entry at 34106.01, where the previous swing high is. I have set a relative safe stop loss at 33063.05, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index UpdateFirst, we look at the trade idea I just published for the SPX as these two are closely related.
S&P 500 Index Update
We can see all the same signals...
These things they move in exactly the same way.
Just like Bitcoin and Ethereum (the "Merge"), the same goes for the SPX and DJI.
We have the major downtrend which has already been broken here.
So my speculation about the SPX upward corrention to prolong/go higher is true/possible, as it will follow the DJI.
We can see the DJI having a very strong bullish bias on the daily timerame already trading above MA200 and EMA300.
The next resistance here is showing as the August 2022 high/peak price.
We already see the DJI stopping short of this level today.
If this resistance can be conquered, the doors open for 35,400+ which at the same time tells us that the SPX can also grow.
Now, we see a divergence happening with the RSI, bearish divergence and we also see a potential for a sudden drop.
The weekly and monthly timeframes are full bullish.
The bulls have definitely the upper hand here...
The August 2022 resistance will be the next decision point.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
DOW JONES Too close to the August 16 High!It has been almost 2 weeks since Dow Jones (DJI) broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since the start of the year and the beginning of the 2022 correction. At the same time it broke above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which as we've mentioned numerous times was the barrier for a long-term bullish trend restoration:
The index is now very close to making another major bullish break-out as it is very close to the 34300 Resistance (1) which was formed by the August 16 High, which was rejected on the (former) Lower Highs trend-line and 1D MA300. If broken it will be the first time in 2022 that Dow Jones will break a Lower High. In this case, we will automatically target 35550 (Resistance 2), which was formed by the April 21 (Lower) High.
If the price gets rejected though, the index should seek the short-term Supports of 1) the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which during the July - August and March - April counter rallies was the supporting level (when broken, the downtrends started) and 2) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which held as Support for the first time in a year on November 10. Keep in mind that during Dow's bull rallies, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is typically the Support.
On the downside, watch the 1W RSI, which has been glued to the top of the Channel Up in the past two weeks. Failure to break above it, should accelerate the sell sentiment towards the 1D MA50. The trigger for that can be a Bearish Cross on the 1D MACD, which is very close to be formed. All prior Bearish Cross in 2022 have kickstarted major sell-offs.
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DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 32818.16, where the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 31711.78, slightly below where 2 of the 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. I am looking to take profit at 35411.35, where the previous swing high, 78.6% Fibonacci line and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 23rd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish , with price above the Ichimoku cloud . However, we intend to make use of the pullback. As a result, price has tapped into our sell entry at 34281.36, which is the previous swing high as well as the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at the previous swing high of 35492.22. The take profit will be set at 32135.41, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
dow 4 hour : it can go down now technical say dow can see fibo50 or fibo61 is best place for buy after pinbar come on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart
if you have old sell close all above green arrow ,,,dow main trend will +up to 35000
goodluck
Dow Jones: Down UnderAfter moving sideways for a while, we're expecting Dow Jones to drop into the orange target zone between 32 762 and 31 980 points to complete wave iv in orange in order to push the trend back up to the orange target zone between 34 305 and 35 466 points. After managing to pull itself up there to compete wave (i) in blue, we expect the course to drop back South.
In our alternative scenario, Dow Jones can't turn the trend up this early and continues to drop below the support line at 31 738 points. After crossing this mark, the course should sink further into the blue zone between 31 331 and 29 789 points until wave alt. (iii) in blue hits its low before turning back up to move North. blue hits its low before turning back up to move North.
