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DOW JONES shows no signs of slowing down.Those of you who are worried if the upcoming November U.S. Presidential Elections or medium-term pull-backs (such as those of July and April 2024 or August - October 2023), pose a threat to your investments, you have a strong reason to relax and feel safe and that is the current chart. On this 1M time-frame analysis, we see Dow Jones (DJI) in almost the past 30 years (since late 1997) and the Cycles that have defined its Tops and Bottoms. As you can see, initially there is a clear (green) Channel Up that is always trading above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), leading to the eventual Top, which in turn initiates the Bear Cycle (red Arc). The use of the Sine Waves make a great fit for the bottoms in particular. It is interesting to mention that the time period between the end of each (green) Channel Up and the start of the next one is approximately 40 months (3.3 years). Also since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we can see that a wide Channel Up has been the dominant pattern driving the expansion of Dow. With the above information in mind, we can reach the conclusion that the index is only now entering that aggressive green Channel Up of the Bull Cycle, meaning that the Cycle is far from over and if anything, we are approaching its middle. In fact, the 3.3 year (40 month) time gap has just been completed, so there is a full Channel Up expansion ahead of us. Now, how high can that get? Well if each Bullish Leg of the 2008 emerged Channel Up is 40% less than the previous, then we are looking for at least a +100% rise from the September 2022 bottom, giving us a rough 57000 Target on a 5-year horizon. Again that doesn't mean that we won't have medium-term pull-backs (like those mentioned in the opening paragraph) along the way, they are necessary and they reset the prices in order to attract more liquidity and investors, but on the long run you can feel comfortable holding your stocks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
DOW JONES Is a post Fed decline valid before an October rally?The day has come when the Fed will finally cut the Interest Rates for the first time since the early 2022 hike cycle and the question in the market is whether it will be by -0.25% or -0.5%. High volatility is expected intra-day but technically Dow Jones (DJI) remains within an uptrend (Channel Up) both medium-term (5-months) and long-term (2 years). The last support and bounce was offered by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on September 11 and that broke the remarkable symmetry that the index had so far with the March - August 2023 fractal. That fractal suggested that after a (dotted) Channel Up, the index should make a correction below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but on September 11 instead of breaking below the 1D MA50, the index rebounded (as mentioned above) and diverged from the fractal. This means that the Bullish Led (green Channel Up) may this time start earlier and the rally may break above the 2-year Channel Up and finally deliver a new long-term pattern, possibly more aggressive. Seasonality however is a big factor for investors and as we can see, the last two Septembers (2023, 2022) have been bearish, extending corrections that started in August but eventually managed to price a bottom in October. As a result, any remark by Chair Powell during the press conference that isn't well received by the market, can initiate a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA200, ranging from -5.07% to -6.90%. In our opinion, if that takes place, it will be a tremendous buy opportunity until at least the end of the year. If however Powell delivers what the market is expecting (and more), we expect the pattern to continue its divergence from the 2023 fractal and enter the more aggressive bullish pattern earlier. If the more aggressive pattern prevails, a 46000 target is very probable by the end of the year. Notice that this divergence is also evident when comparing the 1D RSI sequences of the two fractals. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
2
DOW JONES: Is it forming a BLOW OFF TOP??Dow Jones isn't just having a strong bullish momentum on the 1D timeframe but also on its 1W technical outlook where it maintains a steady bullish overall indicator score (RSI = 64.010, MACD = 036.840, ADX = 29.553). However there are growing concerns coming from the 1W chart as the 1W RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence, trading on a Channel Down while the actual price is on a Channel Up. This is alarming because last time this showed up was in late 2021 and as we all know led to the bear market of 2022. However the Bearish Divergence prior to that (mid 2017) was false and Dow continued to rise instead for another 4 months before a correction to its 1W MA50. And that is the level that plays the most important role here, the 1W MA50. As long as it continues to support, we will have a bullish trend. Actually, Dow seems to be attempting a breakout over the Channel Up this month, unlike December 2021. Failure to break though can result into a blow off top. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DJI
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES: Aiming at 42,300 if the 1D MA50 keeps supporting.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.462, MACD = 83.230, ADX = 39.913) as it has recovered exactly 50% of last week's pullback. The rebound started exactly on the 1D MA50, empowering the bullish sentiment inside the Channel Up, despite the fact that the price is trading over its median. If the 1D MA50 keeps supporting, the 1D MACD is near a Bull Cross, which inside the Channel Up, is the trigger signal for more upside. This is a strong bullish case for us and within October we are expecting a new HH (TP = 42,300). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by InvestingScope
3
DOW JONES Nothing has changed. Bull trend intact and eyes 48000.Dow Jones (DJI) is having yet again short-term volatility following the August 30 All Time High (ATH), but as we explained last week this is natural, since the medium-term Channel Up hit its top and was looking for the 1D MA50 for buyers and a Higher Low potentially a little lower. On the longer term though, the trend is intact and is heavily bullish. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is holding and as long as it supports, there is no evidence showing a correction. In fact, this is the exact same pattern that the index has been following since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. As you can see on this 1W chart, the market first bottoms on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and starts a recovery phase by breaking above the 1W MA50. After a lengthy consolidation on it with a few tests (to confirm it as Support), it enters a structured Channel Up until the Cycle's peak. The first two Cycles rose by exactly +75% from their bottom to top, while the COVID one peaked at +70%. As a result, assuming a minimum +70% rise for this Cycle also, we can target at least 48000. It appears that the index is currently past half-way through the Cycle, already within the standard Channel Up. In addition, you can observe the similarities between the Cycles on the 1W RSI fractals as well, which tend to 'cool down' once this Channel Up starts forming. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
US30 | Trade ideaKey Points: Tesla: Shares fell 1.6% after a report that the company plans to produce a six-seat Model Y in China by late 2025. Boeing: Dropped 7.3% following a downgrade from Wells Fargo to "underweight" from "equal weight." Nvidia: Slumped nearly 10%, wiping out a record $279 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day decline for a U.S. company. U.S. Manufacturing: Edged up in August from an eight-month low but remained subdued, according to ISM data. Market Performance: S&P 500 fell 2.1% Nasdaq dropped 3.3% Dow declined 1.5% This marks the biggest daily percentage decline for these indexes since early August. Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, with technology, energy, communication services, and materials leading the decline. Market Sentiment: Weakened amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, with September being historically one of the worst months for stock market performance. Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 33.2% to 20.72, the highest close since early August. Trading Volume: Totaled 12.14 billion shares across U.S. exchanges, above the 20-day moving average of nearly 11 billion. Labor Market: Traders are awaiting labor market reports ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data. Fed Meeting: Scheduled for Sept. 17-18, with a 63% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut and a 37% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Market Breadth: On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancers by 2.52-to-1, while on the Nasdaq, decliners outnumbered advancers by 3.5-to-1.
PEPPERSTONE:US30Short
by DynamicCapital-FX
DIA $392 PT Sep '24 (Repost)Reposting my DIA $392 target price for September (my previous chart was too messy). It's been in a very consistent channel all of 2024. This means SPY should continue lower towards the $500 level through this week. We will need to see DIA hold the $392 level and SPY to stay above $500, which I think is very likely the case as we go into rate cuts 9/18. The rate cut on 9/18 will very likely add much needed boost to equities to go back to highs before a full on market crash.
AMEX:DIAShort
by ARX713
DOW JONES correction to extend until the Fed.Dow Jones (DJI) did what we expected of it 3 weeks ago (August 13, see chart below) and after pricing a Higher Low at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, it rebounded and reached the All Time High (ATH), pricing a Higher High: In continuation of that analysis, we now expect the new Bearish Leg to extend to possibly as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the case with the May 30 pull-back. The 1D RSI suggests that a 35.00 value would be ideal to signal a buy (same as May 30, see how both RSI fractals priced the top on the 70.00 overbought limit), while a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD would be the final confirmation of the buy. Our long-term Target remains 42400 (+11.00% from the Higher Low, the same % rise as the July 18 High). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
US30 / Bearish Bias Below 41,030 Amid Key Economic Data ReleasesADP, Unemployment rate, and ISM figures are set to be released today. The price followed a bullish trend yesterday but has since corrected to the resistance at 41,030. A sustained position below 41,030 will reinforce the bearish trend, potentially driving the price towards 40,800 and 40,480. Conversely, a 4-hour candle close above 41,030 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, with targets at 41,180 and 41,345. These economic reports are likely to have a significant impact on market movements. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 41,030 Resistance Levels: 41180, 41345, 41550 Support Levels: 40810, 40690, 40470 Expected Trading Range: 41180 - 40690 Trend: Bearish while below 41030.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
Technical Review–Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) As investors loom over the slowdown in the US market, the Dow Jones had tumbled close to 500 points in a single trading day. With this, our key stock pick, Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) sees selling pressure, however a strong support was formed around $1.570 key support level (S1). We believe this selling is short term in nature, and both RSI and MACD showed a trade divergence where there is actually accumulation exercise in place for the shares of ATPC in the range of $1.570 ~ $1.800. We had commenced accumulation around $1.600 level.
NASDAQ:ATPCLong
by HASHInvests200
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 1st —> Sept 6th)**DIYWallST Weekly Recap & Market Forecast** --- Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw mixed movements in the stock markets as strength in consumer staples, energy, and financials helped offset weakness in discretionary and technology shares. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 **Market Overview:** The week began with consumer staples, energy, and financials providing support to the markets, counterbalancing the softness in discretionary and technology shares ahead of key earnings reports in those sectors. Oil prices rose early in the week as Israel responded to a Hezbollah attack from the North, and uncertainty over Libya’s production reemerged. However, crude prices fell back later in the week after a report suggested OPEC+ might proceed with a planned ‘gradual’ oil output increase starting in October. Gold prices continued to set new all-time highs, maintaining their recent outperformance over bitcoin. The S&P 500 encountered resistance around 5,600—a level approximately 20x average 2025 S&P earnings estimates, which moved up towards $275 following Nvidia and other companies' quarterly results. Stock indexes closed mixed for the week, with the S&P edging up 0.2%, the DJIA rising 0.9%, and the Nasdaq down by 0.9%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 0.2% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 0.9% - 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 0.9% **Economic Indicators:** Economic data this week supported the expectation of more central bank rate cuts next month: - **European CPI:** Preliminary German and French CPI fell below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since August 2021, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut from the ECB in September. - **US Durable Goods:** July data rebounded sharply as expected, but core capital goods (nondefense excluding aircraft) were disappointing, showing no monthly increase since April. - **Richmond Fed Index:** The August print was soft, contracting to a level not seen since the pandemic. - **PCE Inflation Data:** The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge did little to alter expectations for a September rate cut, while Q2 preliminary GDP and July personal consumption data remained solid. - **US Yield Curve:** The 2-10 spread moved closer to de-inverting, with just a few basis points separating it from positive territory. **Corporate News:** Earnings reports continued to be a major market driver, especially in the retail sector, which delivered mixed signals: - **Best Buy:** Exceeded earnings expectations despite posting its 11th consecutive quarter of negative US same-store sales, highlighting that consumers are seeking value but still willing to invest in new technologies. - **Dollar General:** Missed estimates and confirmed that lower-end consumers are struggling, with many running out of paychecks before month-end and relying on credit cards for basic needs. - **PDD (Temu-parent):** Shares were hit hard after the company reported that intensifying competition was pressuring revenue growth. - **Nvidia:** Beat earnings expectations again but saw a slightly more modest increase in guidance than usual, leading to a retracement in big tech stocks on Thursday. - **Marvell Technology:** Impressed investors with a strong earnings report and forecasted that custom silicon would become a significant revenue growth driver. - **Intel:** Reportedly considering a major restructuring, which could include spinning off its foundry business. - **Paramount:** The latest development in the ongoing acquisition saga saw the Edgar Bronfman Jr.-led consortium withdraw its proposal, clearing the way for Skydance to close the deal. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key events and data releases: - **U.S. Jobs Report** - **U.S. PMI Surveys** - **Fed Beige Book** - **Earnings Reports:** Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ), Dollar Tree ( NASDAQ:DLTR ), Dick’s Sporting Goods ( NYSE:DKS ), Nio ( NYSE:NIO ) - **Labor Day Holiday:** Markets will be closed on Monday As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Breaking down Dow Jones Elliott WavesThe above chart is my main hypothesis for the Elliott Wave count of Dow Jones which represents the Elliott Wave Analysis of the Bull Market Post 2008 financial crisis. Kindly read all the details to better understand the Elliott Wave analysis and how Elliott Waves can be used to give us an edge in trading. Currently it looks like we are in an Ending Diagonal waves. The reason we are in Ending Diagonal Wave 3 instead of Wave B of ABC flat is because we are too far up now for our current market to be considered in wave B of an ABC flat. The 2008 crisis bear market was an ABC flat, if you look, we crashed at that time when Wave B was at around 138% of Wave A. I have attached sub wave structure of the rally we have seen so far after the COVID crash. I have explained my reasoning for my wave counts in the chart which you can take a look. Now moving further inside our sub waves, below chart shows the sub wave structure of the ABC wave we are in since 27 October, 2023 Further moving inside our sub waves, the chart below shows the breakdown waves of our this year move. Once all the waves shown in the below chart finish, we should see a correction towards our Post COVID peak price levels.
DJ:DJI
by syedhamza2135
1
US30 / Reached ATH, then downside or yet...Futures Inch Up with Focus on Interest Rates and Nvidia Results The price reached its all-time high as we anticipated yesterday before pulling back. The US30 is expected to consolidate between 41,345 and 41,030 until a breakout occurs. Stability above 41365 will support a rise towards 41760. Stability below 41365 will favor a decline towards 41030, with a move below this level indicating a bearish trend for the week. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 41180 Resistance Levels: 41365, 41450, 41720 Support Levels: 41030, 40810, 40480 Expected Trading Range Today: The price will likely fluctuate between support at 40800 and resistance at 41430. Trend: Bearish as long as the price remains below 41345. previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
3
DOW JONES The pattern that never failed is now targeting 48000Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal of the year 8 months ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 is very close to hitting our 42900 Target: At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and now you see why. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top) then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got back in December. As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', in practice it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which is a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical. As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
US30 4H / Continuation to 40030 and then...Equities Rise as Fed Minutes Indicate September Rate Cut Likely Current Technical Outlook: The trend suggests a potential upward movement as long as the price stays above 40,860. The market is expected to consolidate between 41,030 and 40,850 until a breakout occurs. Bullish Scenario: Stability above 40,850, could drive an increase toward 41,030, with further gains potentially leading to 41,345. Bearish Scenario: Should the price reverse and stabilize below the pivot line at 40,800, a bearish trend may emerge, targeting 40,480 and 40,320. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 40900 Resistance Lines: 41030, 41345, 41600 Support Lines: 40800, 40660, 40470 Expected Trading Range Today: The price is likely to fluctuate between support at 40800 and resistance at 41130. Trend: Upward movement.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi
3
Dow30 - US30 Faces DownturnBLACKBULL:US30 has returned to a crucial resistance zone, which aligns with a bearish technical setup. After the recent decline, this move back to the resistance suggests that a further drop may be imminent, especially if the index fails to break above this zone. The pattern indicates that TVC:DJI could start its downward trend again following a retest of this level, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market. Fundamentally, the rising unemployment claims in the U.S. have heightened fears of a recession. With more individuals out of work, consumer spending could slow down, which negatively impacts corporate earnings and the broader economy. This situation could exert additional downward pressure on the Dow Jones, making the possibility of a significant decline more likely as investors brace for potential economic contraction.
BLACKBULL:US30Short
by Sober_Trading
Fed Minutes & Jackson Hole Speech Set Stage for Market Movement Market Outlook: Minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting are due later today, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday. Market participants expect Powell to hint at a potential rate cut in September, though any emphasis on persistent inflation could dampen investor sentiment. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is currently a 69.5% probability of a 25 basis-point cut and a 30.5% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis-point reduction. Current Technical Outlook: The trend suggests a potential upward movement as long as the price stays above 40,800. The market is expected to consolidate between 41,030 and 40,850 until a breakout occurs. Bullish Scenario: If the price trades above 40,850, it could drive an increase toward 41,030, with further gains potentially leading to 41,345. Bearish Scenario: Should the price reverse and stabilize below the pivot line at 40,800, a bearish trend may emerge, targeting 40,480 and 40,320. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 40860 Resistance Lines: 41030, 41345, 41600 Support Lines: 40700, 40500, 40330 Expected Trading Range Today: The price is likely to fluctuate between support at 40800 and resistance at 41130. Trend: Upward movement.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SroshMayi