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DOW

The Dow could appeal to bullish (or contrarian) swing traders Price action on the DJI (Dow Jones Industrial) and several other markets have flagged the potential for a contrarian setup (favourble for bulls). The Dow Jones has seen a relatively deep pullback against the rally from the June low, and there has been two false breaks of trend support over the past two sessions. Furthermore, a bullish engulfing candle formed yesterday which shows demand just above 3100. The stochastic oscillator is also oversold, although yet to general a traditional 'buy signal' by crossing bac above 30. But given we saw USD/CNH stall just below 7.000 and 145 reverse after tapping 145 suggests we may have reached an important inflection point in sentiment (at least over the near-term). If we want to think bigger and bolder, wave 2's tend to be the deepest - and bullish rallies generally begin during times of uncertainty. Against that backdrop the Dow Jones (and US indices in general) become contrarian candidates for bulls. Here's two ways to look at this, depending on anticipated hold time. 1 - For near-term longs: We'd like to see prices hold above yesterday's low and continue higher towards 3200 - 3250, before reassessing its upside potential. This approach requires a tighter stop and we're looking for a momentum / swing trade higher (sooner than later). 2 - For a 'longer-term' bullish setups: Perhaps the low is not yet but it is close. Instead, we see a volatile shakeout around current levels before a bullish move unfolds. In which case we'd want prices to remain above the 30,500 area (near a bullish engulfing candle from July) with a view for it to eventually break above the March high. This scenario allows for a wider stop and requires more patience. As we saw after the DAX reached out bearish target, prices have failed to reach new lows and have now turned higher. And if we consider how bad things are in Europe and the DAX is rising, perhaps we have reached that phase of the cycle where a countertrend move for global indices are the path of least resistance.
WLong
by CityIndex
DOW JONES hit the Higher Lows line. 1D RSI oversold.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) is on its 7th straight day below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) having fallen almost -10% since its August 16 High caused by the strong rejection on the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). The price has hit today the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and had one more contact on July 14. This is the only Support level that stands before a potential June 17 Low re-test, which is also where the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is currently at, the index' natural long-term technical Support. As long as the Higher Lows hold, we can expect sideways trading within that trend-line and the 1D MA50. If the latter breaks, consider it a buy break-out signal targeting the 1D MA300 again or at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which was hit both on the June-Aug and Feb-March rallies. If the June Low and 1W MA200 break, then we can expect a new Lower Low around the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, as the May 20 Low did. On a short to medium-term perspective, this is a buy opportunity as the 1D RSI is touching the Oversold zone that has been holding since the 2020 COVID crash. As you see, every direct hit in the Zone has delivered a rebound of at least +8.00%. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U
by TradingShot
2
Stocks Edge LowerStocks broke through relative lows at 3909 as anticipated. We gave up the 3900 handle entirely, and broke down into the 3800's, but found immediate support at 3887. We are testing 3909 from below at the time of this writing but the S&P 500 looks pretty weak. The Kovach OBV is on a steady downward decline, and we keep breaking levels from below. We should have strong support at 3848, a relative high/low from June. If we are able to pivot or we see a relief rally, then 3963 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Another Lackluster Week for Stocks?Stocks opened the APAC session weak (as expected). The markets appear to still be pricing in the recession and the results of the FOMC September 21. We aren't likely to get much of a break in stocks until after this rate hike, which some conjecture might be the last . The S&P 500 saw support from 3909, which was an auspicious level corresponding to a July low. The Kovach OBV, however, is still very bearish, suggesting that it will be an uphill battle for the stock market to claw back highs. If we get a relief rally, then we could test 4009. If we press lower, then 3848 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
McDonald's MCD - I'm Lovin' Selling, and You Should be tooYou don't see just how highly priced McDonald's still is unless you look at it on the Monthly: I mean, this is the place that sells faux-food while CPI and PPI are through the roof, and it's still trading almost at its all time high. This is even more ridiculous than the positioning of Apple AAPL: Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes Weird And Tesla TSLA: Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine On top of that, this is one of the thirty companies that compose the Dow, which is the most bearish of all indexes, having already retested the pre-COVID highs, which SPX and Nasdaq have yet to do. The bottom line for everyone's least favourite, but most convenient, fast food dumpster fire is that the June --> August price action, was, like Apple, just a gap fill. And now, it's time to seek new lows. And those lows happen to be, conservatively, in the $245 range. This is a fat put if you buy puts, but a "my calls expired worthless so at least I can sob about my drawdown on Reddit" scenario for Robinhood's retail fodder. I can only encourage everyone who is still long on equities to get out this week. I truly believe that we are going to see a bounce that traps bears short but snares bulls long: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws With a looming VIX 72 (hasn't done much since COVID! It's two years! It's due! Be careful!) hanging overhead. VIX - 9x8 = 72 What lies ahead, after the trap has been executed, will come fast, and viciously, and it will seem as if the world is ending. If you buy when it's high because you are still thinking to yourself that this is the old paradigm, you're going to lose at least one finger, and probably three. This world is not one where you can use magic to regrow what's lost, you know? And so what I want to say is that you should protect what you have. If you can't get short, if you can't trade puts, then get cash heavy and reduce your risk. Ultimately, what's important in life is not money, which when you die you leave behind. It is maintaining your kindness. It is harbouring your virtue. This isn't moral dogma, unless you make it moral dogma. The path through the storm is to do better in your life. Been neglecting family? Fix it. Been a bad father? Fix it. Been a bad boss? Buy the secretary flowers and tell her that she's doing a great job. Make sure you mean it. You aren't such a bad guy. Make sure you mean it. Try your best. One day, in this lifetime, when the Chinese Communist Party falls, you'll instantly understand what I am referring to. Don't leave yourself with regrets on that day. That day is too late. You have to figure it out and do well before that day. It's just like poker, where you have to place your bets before the cards are face up. It doesn't count anymore after the cards are face up.
NYSE:MCD
by LordWrymouth
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 05 Week US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 05 Week Last week's short on retracement/channel rejection was good. Temporary support at the moment at 31221. Possible scenarios: 1) Long at 31221 / dotted trend line support 2) Short on rejection of solid trend line / 32029 / 31221 / retracement on low volume Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 32546 32029 31221 30406 29639 Weekly: Higher vol than previous bar, narrower spread, close off low = demand coming in Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = minor demand H4: Ultra high vol bar + up bar close of low = minior demand Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
2
SPX500 / ES1 - Saved by the BellIt is somewhat ironic that an eight minute Powell speech in front of a wood panel wall with a variety of vacuous, yet "hawkish," narratives is the catalyst for the market to begin to rightly seek new lows. Perhaps if they had hiked rates 200 bps we would have seen a 4,600 SPX print "because reasons." I've heard some say that the currency of central bankers is credibility, yet the Federal Reserve double talks, back tracks, and goes against its word all the time. They truly are market manipulators, and they truly lack credibility. Regardless, last week's SPX call was a sharp success, and price action shows that the bear market rally is likely finished. At least, if irrational mania is to continue, deeper lows ought to be sought first, and I believe we will see that imminently this week. This week is a tough forecast because Monday-Wednesday are August and Thursday and Friday are September, with the following Monday already being the week of September 5 to 9. BTC has lost the $20,000 marker and Ethereum has slipped under $1,500 already, and I believe we will see an even deeper dump on Sunday, which will cause their futures market to gap down, and it isn't going to fill. Since there is a correlation between the SPX and digital currencies, I believe that the indices will gap down as well, and SPX will seek lows under 4,000 and stocks will simply be a train wreck. We may quickly see a 30 VIX print, and many things will be startling. However, because Thursday and Friday are September's open, I really expect to see a healthy, albeit somewhat anemic bounce that will create a bull trap. If not, then the monthly candle will print something awkwardly like it is sitting at the moment, which doesn't make a lot of sense: What I ultimately want to say is that if you got stuck long at the top on equities, you should have a chance to mitigate your losses, but you should not expect that gap formed last week at ~4,227 to fill. Even less should you expect returns to highs. New highs are simply out of the question. You aren't likely to get out even if you got ahead of yourself. So cut your losses and mitigate your risk. If 4,227 was going to fill, they would have filled it during the Jackson Hole manipulation before the slaughter. Ultimately, we're still trading at a premium when measuring the overall run from June lows to August highs. The makers ought to have mercy on you by only driving to a discount for a day or two before monthly close. What comes in September, in my opinion, is the beginning of a descent below June lows. Fear will finally be employed. The Terminator algo will come with ferocity and break bull hearts, take out the pre-COVID high, and mark a significant change in market structure and sentiment. And then things will get interesting, because we have September futures expiry and September FOMC all within days of each other, and at the end of the month. Note that there is no FOMC in October, and note the U.S. midterm elections are also in October. You're going to hear the propaganda machine squawk a lot about recession this and fundamentals that as price crashes. You'll be encouraged to sell low, pay a lot of premium for puts, get short, and then, well... the market manipulators are the market manipulators, after all... This paradigm will not last forever. The world is in trouble, and the Chinese Communist Party will soon vanish overnight, with the world wondering how it could happen. The only hope for "stability" is mankind's return to tradition. What's important right now isn't making money, but it's how you position your heart and your mind amid the situations you find yourself in. Strengthen your soul's consciousness, strengthen your will, and stand fast to your kindness and rationality. That is the way to make it through. Trading brings out a lot of fear, and a lot of greed in a person. Work first on eliminating those attachments. When they're gone, you'll find yourself on level water and under the auspices of the Blue Dome of Heaven.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
1
DOW JONES on the 2008 crash fractal and how it avoids it. I've made many comparisons of Dow Jones' (DJI) 2022 Bearish Price Action with past Bear Cycles but being near closing its 3rd straight red 1W (weekly) candle since the August 15 rejection on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), it is time to update it. As you see, this is a comparison of Dow's 2021/2022 chart against 2007/2008. The dynamic factor is WTI Oil (black trend-line). As you see in July 2008 Oil peaked while the index had already started it's correction inside the new Bear Market. Dow's 1W MA50 rejection was followed by a sharp sell-off below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) where the 1W MA50 crossed below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to form a Bearish Cross. The time that the index reached the 1W MA200 from its Market Top was 37 weeks (259 days). At the moment the 2022 fractal looks to be following closely the 2008 sequence. If we exclude the fundamental extreme of the peak of the Ukraine - Russia war when Oil registered its peak (March 2022), its technical normalized top was in June 2022 right when Dow rebounded just before hitting the 1W MA200. See how even the 1W RSI sequences are identical so far. What this indicates is that Oil can continue dropping as the Fed attempts to lower an out of control inflation, but still stocks can fall along with it, just like it happened from mid 2008 to early 2009. As a result, the 1W MA50 rejection seems so far consistent with mid-phases of a Bear Cycle. Fundamentally, a big factor that is not consistent with the 2008 fractal is the strong labor market we're currently at, with the Unemployment Rate (teal trend-line) still on market lows as opposed to the 2008 fractal, which by the 1W MA50 rejection in May 2008, it was already rising aggressively. This means that technically, a weekly candle close above the 1W MA50 can be regarded as an invalidation of the Bear Cycle fractal. Also the 1W RSI printing Higher Highs can be taken as such. What do you think will happen next? Can Dow close above the 1W MA50 or August's rejection will hit the 1W MA200 as per the 2008 fractal? P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of WTI Oil and the Unemployment Rate plotted and pinned to scales B and Z, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Editors' picks
TVC:DJI
by TradingShot
31
Selling rallies in US30USD following NFP beatUS30USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 31991 (stop at 32442) The medium term bias remains bearish. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Previous support at 32000 now becomes resistance. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 30952 and 30700 Resistance: 32000 / 34200 / 36900 Support: 30950 / 29800 / 27000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US30USDShort
by OANDA
Recession Weighs on StocksThe S&P 500 has slipped further after making a run for higher levels. Yesterday, we tested two levels that we have been identifying as targets for weeks now: first we touched 4009, then made a brief pivot to 4068, where we saw immediate resistance, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We subsequently plummeted as the risk off tone permeated the markets. We gave up the 4000 handle entirely, testing as low as 3963, where we saw green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but we could see support from a relative low at 3909. If we pivot, we must first break through 4009 again then 4068 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies on US30USDUS30USD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 32761 (stop at 33164) The medium term bias remains bearish. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. We look for a temporary move higher. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 32800. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 31822 and 31600 Resistance: 32800 / 34300 / 36800 Support: 32000 / 30400 / 29000 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:US30USDShort
by OANDA
1
DOW JONES holding the 1D MA50 in a repeat of the COVID recovery!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and today shows the first signs of recovery. The drop from the August 16 High has been substantial, almost -7% but so has the rise since the June 17 low (more than +15%), so profit taking was natural, especially since the High exceeded the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The first Resistance on the short-term is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which is being tested at the moment. On the long-term though, this pull-back to the 1D MA50 after such a strong rally, resembles the initial recovery of March - June 2020 from the COVID crash. Especially considering also that the RSI and MACD on the 1W time-frame have been printing identical patterns, with the MACD being on a Bullish Cross since July 27 as it did on May 22 2020! From June 15 2020 to July 21 2020, the 1D MA50 held as Support four times and it catapulted Dow to the 1.15 Fibonacci extension. A repeat of that pattern sets the current medium-term target exactly on the 35000 level. Notice also that as on June 23 2020, Dow is currently close to having the 1D MA50 cross above the 1D MA100, which is a Bullish Cross formation and that would be the first time since then! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ULong
by TradingShot
5
Stocks Bottom Out... For Now...After plummetting to the bottom of the 4000 handle, stocks made a meager attempt at a rally. Our level at 4009 was the exact low of the S&P 500. It touched this level and promptly pivoted, testing the next level at 4068. However red triangles on the KRI immediately confirmed resistance and have been struggling to break through. If we can, then 4122 is the next target. It seems that 4009 provided good support but in the event of another selloff, 3978 and 3963 are the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1