US30 (Sensitive Consolidation Movement )Dow Jones New Forecast
You should see a few more months of inflation data that appear to be falling (before any prices are lowered)
The price corrected to their support line as we mentioned in the previous chart,
so now still has a consolidation between 39790 and 40005 till breaking, from this support line will try to start a bullish trend toward 40005, and above it will get 40130 and more
otherwise closing 4h candle under 39785 means will drop to get 39580
Pivot line: 39790
Resistance Prices: 40005, 40130, 40420
Support Prices: 39570, 39360, 39070
The movement range will be between support 39790 and Resistance 40130
Previous idea:
DOW
US30 (Rally Movement...)Nvidia Reports on the Horizon, Wall Street Gains Pre-Bell; Asian and European Markets Up
Wall Street futures indicated a slight rise pre-bell Monday as traders processed the final stages of the earnings season.
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is scheduled to announce its earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. This week will also see financial results from Lowe's ( NYSE:LOW ), PDD ( NASDAQ:PDD ), and Intuit ( NASDAQ:INTU ).
On Wednesday afternoon, the US Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its most recent policy meeting.
Wix.com ( NASDAQ:WIX ) shares increased by 7.8% pre-bell following the company’s report of higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.
In futures trading, the S&P 500 increased by 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%, and the Dow Jones remained steady.
Overnight, Asian markets mostly traded higher, while European stocks turned positive by midday.
Technically :
The Dow Jones has reached a new all-time high.
Stability above 40005 suggests the bullish trend will continue towards 40130 and 40420. Conversely, if the price stabilizes below 40005, it is likely to drop to 39790.
Pivot line: 40005
Resistance Prices: 40130, 40420, 40730
Support Prices: 39820, 39540, 39360
The movement range will be between support 39790 and Resistance 40420
Trapped traders provides a great Short opportunity on DOW The plan for the session was to trade short off resistance on the DOW after an initial opening drive higher. The short side was the play and paid out nicely for patient sellers.
In the video I talk through the key Price Action for the move and prime trade areas on the DOW Index.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures Short-Term Video Idea#DJIA EASYMARKETS:DOWUSD
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DOW JONES: Two levels to buy.Dow Jones is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.964, MACD = 188.520, ADX = 55.476) and has completed three green 1W candles in a row. Having reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, the last confirmation left to see in order to call for a continuation of this uptrend is for the 1W RSI to cross over its MA. The moment it does, we will buy again and target the Channel's top (TP = 42,000). Until that moment, we will wait for a more comfortable buy lower at 38,550 (TP = 42,000 again).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES made 1st 4H Golden Cross in 6 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us a solid bullish break-out signal after it broke out above its 1D MA50 last week (May 06, see chart below):
As you can see this gave way to a new Channel Up, which we view on the current analysis on the 4H time-frame. That is because on Friday it formed the first 4H Golden Cross in 6 months (since November 08 2023)!
This is on its own a very strong bullish signal but it gets even stronger if we consider the fact that the last 4H Golden Cross was formed while the index was in a similar pattern, recovering from August - October correction.
Dow then entered a very aggressive uptrend/ Channel Up that never broke even its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) before January. As a result, we move our short-term Target even higher, on a symmetrical +3.45% Bullish Leg at 40300, which will be a new All Time High (ATH) for the index.
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DOW JONES ANALYSISChart : 4Hour
Overall Trend : Bullish
Current Market Structure : Consolidation
Scenario 1 :
Price has been respecting the 39600 level as it did reject from that level with a heavy push to the downside on Friday .
We can look for short term selling opportunities in the market targeting the imbalance in the market . Or targeting the 4hour demand levels
DOW JONES Broke above its 1D MA50. Is it bullish finally?Dow Jones (DJI) broke on Friday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 10 and even though it failed to close above it, today has already established the price action above it. This is a strong first bullish signal but isn't enough by itself.
Even though the 1D RSI has already turned its MA from Resistance to Support, we need to see a 1D candle closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, as we pointed out in previous analyses. If that happens, we will turn bullish again, targeting the 40000 High. Until then, having low risk on this strategy being so close to the invalidation level, we are bearish and targeting 37900 (the 0.236 Fibonacci level).
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Gartley and a Cypher brotherhood - short DOWDespite the cluttered chart I think we have a Fib confluence area build around two common harmonic patterns - Gartley 222 (Redish area) and the Cypher (Blue area).
Whether you sold the 88% retracement ()In the CYpher scenario or the 78% retracement ()the Gartley scenarioI think we have a good scenario for a short trade.
Protecting stop at 1 to 1 then and aiming for some runner that really needs to drop to make our RR interesting.
US30's Price Retracement and Fibonacci ConfluenceExecuting a Scalping Position on US30, the price initially reached 38570 before experiencing its first retracement. Currently, the price is undergoing a pullback at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, coinciding with a Bearish order block. Our focus lies on anticipating a rejection of this zone and identifying a new CD Leg Fibonacci extension.
DOW JONES Test of 4H MA200 imminent to decide the trend.Dow Jones (DJI) gave a solid short-term sell signal on the MACD Bearish Cross last time we analyzed it on the 4H time-frame (April 24, see chart below):
Similarly, it is flashing a strong buy signal now after the 0.236 Fibonacci rebound that keeps the price action above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), in similar fashion as September 14 2023. The 4H MACD even completed a Bullish Cross and the next sequence on that fractal is a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test. Our target is 38750.
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Dow and Russell could extend lowerDow and Rusell2k have rallied back and may be finding seller supply at current levels. If prices go lower and fail to hold recent support, then an extension of the down move could be in play.
The majority of the gains stocks have been from the ai and magnificent 7 stocks (nvidia, amazon, tesla, microsoft, apple, google, meta). These stacks are a larger percentage of the sp500 and nasdaq than the dow and russell. The rest of the economy may not be fairing as well as the implied moves of the magnificent 7 which is attracting all the momentum money.
Higher rates affecting funding costs would hit industrials in the dow and the small businesses more in the russell2k.
DOW JONES Attention! These are currently the key levels to know!Following a successful sell signal at the top of the long-term Channel Up (March 28, see chart below), Dow Jones (DJI) is staging its first attempt to resume the bullish trend:
Observing past behavior in similar circumstances often helps at making such projections, so we placed Dow's previous correction in August 2023 (right chart) next to today's. The key levels when the index made a similar attempt to regain the long-term bullish trend as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci.
As you can see on August 31 it marginally broke above both but failed to close a single 4H candle above them and was subsequently rejected back to the 0.236 Fib. A 4H MACD Bearish Cross took place exactly on that candle's rejection.
As a result, we will only buy the break-out if Dow closes a 4H candle above the current 0.618 Fib (38950) in which case we will target the 40000 High. Until then we will sell even the slightest 4H MA200 rejection and target 37900 (Fib 0.236). We can already see a 4H MACD Bearish Cross emerging. The risk either way is low.
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DOW JONES Sell target hit. When will it reverse?Dow Jones (DJI) hit the 38050 Target that we set on our last bearish call (March 28, see chart below) and broke below Support 1 (February 13 Low) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line):
The price now faces more selling pressure being below two MA periods and with the long-term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 bottom), having considerable downside to give. As we mentioned on our March idea above, the most effective buy entry within this long-term pattern is when the 1D CCI makes the first Higher Low after having broken below the -100.00 oversold barrier.
That is what happened on March 13 2023 and September 22 2023 (even though that sequence had one more Low to give). The most fascinating characteristic of both those corrective Legs was that they both declined by -9.25%. If Dow repeats this decline, we are looking at 36285, which is just above Support 2 but currently exactly where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is.
The latter is our main point of focus and assuming the index will give a dead-cat-bounce now towards th 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we project that it may hit the 1D MA200 around 36900. If that coincides with a 1D CCI Higher Low, it will be in our opinion the most optimal buy entry for the next long-term Bullish Leg, targeting 41000.
Note that the dead-cat-bounces on both previous Bearish Legs, never closed a 1D candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, so that is the parameter that will keep the current correction valid. If we do get a 1D candle close above the 0.618 Fib, it will technically be a pattern invalidation and trend reversal upwards so we will buy the bullish break-out and Target 41000 regardless.
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DOW JONES: Close to our Target. Is it a buy after?Dow Jones is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.431, MACD = -279.330, ADX = 39.462) and is approaching our TP = 37,300 that we called nearly one month ago. The target will be a direct hit at the middle of the long term Channel Up and approach the 0.382 Fibonacci. As long as the 1D MA200 supports, we will then reverse to buying, at least on the short term, expecting a rebound to the 0.786 Fib (TP = 39,350) like on January 16th 2023.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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#BTC #Bitcoin #Short #Long #Setup 10 Result + 'New 11' #Eddy#BTC #Bitcoin #Short #Long #Setup 10 Result + 'New 11' #Eddy
It's you & Setup 11 :-)
(( Considering the structure that has formed in the market, I expect the price to return from the entry point of the new setup "11" to the range of 74,000 to 75,000 dollars. ))
(( If you get pullback confirmation on the lower time frames, you can follow BTC to the new ATH. ))
Related Relevant Analysis & setups of Bitcoin : (( BTC/USD )) : Check Link :
Dow Jones(US30):🔴Possible scenarios🔴(Details on caption)
Well, as you can see Dow Jones in the daily chart swept the liquidity and created a new all-time high, then had a bearish reaction and shiffed the market structure as well.
after that, the price had a retracement from a bullish FVG to a bearish breaker block and continued to the sell side.
For now, there are two different bearish scenarios which I follow the first one.
First scenario: The price created the buy side liquidity below the balance price range in the premium. We all know it is a high-probability scenario that can push the price lower. So in this scenario, we wait to move higher, grab the buy side liquidity, and look for a sell position inside the BPR on a lower time frame.
Second scenario: If the price is strongly bearish we can expect the price to move to sell-side liquidity from inversion which has already tapped in.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️07/04/2024
🔎 DYOR
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DOW JONES below the 1D MA50 after 5 months!Dow Jones (DJI) gave us an excellent sell entry following our last analysis (March 28, see chart below) as it got rejected and made a bearish reversal exactly where we expected it to:
Last Thursday it even broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time in exactly 5 whole months (since November 03 2023)! This is a bearish break-out confirmation signal and we expect a new sell-off soon.
As you can see the former (dotted) Channel Down broke downwards and has given way to a (blue) Channel Down. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has now been turned into Resistance with one confirmed rejection already (April 04).
The Channel Down has fairly symmetrical Bearish Legs so far, -2.36% and -2.20%. Assuming the new will be at a -2.20% minimum, we are expecting a Lower Low at 38200.
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Dow to Consolidate and Move Down from HereYM (DOW 30), 4 Hour, Indicators: This is what I need to see turn to get confirmation on our short position up here. The 4 hour is still locked in "embedded" mode on the slow stochastic. My bet is that this is going to come off "embedded" and in the process swing back to the middle of the Bollinger band. . . if that happens, that would take us back to 39921 . . . there is your 300 points. Notice the resistance on the 4 hour from above . . . You also have the top of the BBs on the 4 hour up there. So, it makes sense that it would be a good place to sell off from. Obviously, our stop is back at B/E but, if we wanted too . . .beyond this 4 hour level would also be a good place for a stop. More downside for YM could develop if we bust through the 39900 level if this wedge gives out.
US30: Dow Jones Retreats After Double Top FormationThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has shifted into negative territory, experiencing a notable downturn following a double top formation around the $40,000 mark on April 1st. As of the time of writing, the price has descended to $39,179, exhibiting a reaction near the neckline of the price pattern. This development prompts a strategic approach based on Fibonacci levels, indicating potential pullback zones where sell limits have been set to capitalize on retracement opportunities.
The recent softness in US services activity data has provided a degree of respite for investors, who have been increasingly apprehensive about the implications of robust US macroeconomic indicators on Federal Reserve monetary policy. Specifically, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dipped to 51.4 in March from 52.6 in February, contrary to market expectations of a marginal uptick to 52.7. Furthermore, the Prices Paid sub-index receded to 53.4 from 58.6, marking its lowest reading in years and indicating a disinflationary trend in the economy. These figures have somewhat counterbalanced the impact of strong ADP employment data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell and Atlanta Fed President Bostic.
In light of these developments, our strategy revolves around anticipating a pullback from the previous zone area, followed by a renewed downward movement. This tactical approach aims to capitalize on market dynamics and potential retracement opportunities, aligning with broader market sentiments and macroeconomic indicators.
As market conditions evolve, continued monitoring and adjustment of strategies will be essential to adapt to changing dynamics and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
DOW JONES Sell the MA50 (1d) break out.Dow Jones reached the top of the late 2022 Channel Up and is already on a 3day rejection.
If it crosses under the MA50 (1d), the strongest short term sell signal emerges.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell if the price crosses under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 38050 (Support A).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is testing the 58.47 level. Past breakouts under this level have coincided with MA50 (1d) break outs, so use it as an additional sell signal.
2. The strongest long term buy entry has been when the RSI (1d) breaks under the 30.00 oversold limit.
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Kodiak Sciences Looking Bullish Here KODTo me this looks like its about to rip. If it gets above $13 you're looking at a move straight to $52 no pullback and then maybe $120 after that. We can reassess at that time. It looks like a nice V shape recovery and could be putting in a right shoulder on the inverse head and shoulders. Or a cup and handle whichever you want but the measured move would be $52. If it falls below $4 its going to zero. Not financial advice just my opinion. Thank you
DOW JONES At the edge of the cliff.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top of the 1.5 year Channel Up, while at the same time holding the Inner Higher Highs trend-line. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Support is getting increasingly weak as it is now on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, the closest it has been to the price action since the the November 2023 break-out.
Technically this is as overbought as it can get on the 1D time-frame and the 1D CCI gives a clear sell signal that is consistent with the late July and January 2023 peaks. On this scale, the time to buy is far from the current prices, quite the contrary, the RR favors selling on the short-term.
We are expecting 38050 (Support 1) to be tested on the 0.618 Channel Fib level. Even though the previous two corrections made -9.25% dips, the time to buy would be when the 1D CCI posts a Higher Low on oversold territory. That was a solid buy signal in 2023. The ideal price level for that would be as close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as possible, although it is not necessary.
Profit by selling short-term and buying the dip long-term.
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