US markets failed to give up and go down !As you can see in pink for FR40 and turquoise for UK100 the rise in EU markets had started from Aug 03 and more on 04 .
Also in red US30 up too and in blue SPX500 almost flat .
But DE30 in green on Aug 03 was falling or flat and on Aug 04 left behind the raise in FR40 and UK100 .
Those rise are also related with WTI rise or flat to over 49 , also with GOLD fall to 1255 , EURUSD fall to 1.1750 and both change to downtrend .
So with EU rising more than DE30 , US still rising and downtrend change in both GOLD and EURUSD perhaps DE30 will go up to tp1=12400 and tp2=12500 .
Dow30
Sell The Fecking Rally (STFR) - Dow 30If we're lucky enough to get a bounce, sell the Kim Jong block.
Sell the Trump block to unleash fire and fury.
Spinning top on Dow daily and weekly chart Volumes have been low for quite some time now, Reuters Lippers data for the week ended June 7 showed increased flows into US treasuries and global bonds.
Spinning top signals bullish exhaustion… needs a bullish follow through… that would confirm a short-term top has been made. A bearish follow through on the weekly chart would open doors for a bigger correction.
Dow30 (US30)- New Record highs? US Equities have been in a long term uptrend since Trump was elected back in Nov. 2016. The Dow saw new record highs during this period. The uptrend is still intact based on the TL bounces and we currently find ourselves at the record high area set back in the beginning of March. USD fundamentals will have a big impact on this trend whether it can continue or it shifts and starts to create Lower Highs after rejecting this record high. Not speculating on the data released for NFP and FED rate decision we don't seem to be rejecting this price at the moment.. simply just accumulating contracts as sellers having shown themselves yet.
XOM @ daily @ closed 5 weeks lower (friday) maybe bottomedThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
drive.google.com
4XSetUps for next week - friday close (DOW 30 Index & all shares)
Best regards :)
Aaron
TRV @ daily @ nearest to ATL (30 dow shares), but good picture This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
drive.google.com
4XSetUps for next week - friday close (DOW 30 Index & all shares)
Best regards :)
Aaron
Dow eyes completion of Double Top formationNegative divergence between daily price chart and money flow index coupled with a break below 5-DMA today would indicate the index is heading towards double top neckline level of 18,264 levels (23.6% of 17060-18636).
On the higher side, a break above the daily high of 18,631 levels would open doors for record highs; still, caution is advised as money flow index has diverged since the beginning of the current month.
Dow30 – Re-test of 5-DMA likely
Dow’s repeated failure to stay below 18,264 (23.6% of post Brexit low-high) coupled with hourly RSI rising from oversold territory suggests we could head back to 5-DMA level of 18,389-18,400 levels.
Bearish invalidation is see only if prices break above the upper end of the falling channel noted on hourly chart.
On the lower side, a day end closing below 18,264 would open doors for a slide to 50-DMA level of 18,037.
Dow30 eyes 23.6% Fibo supportBearish move in the daily MACD has opened doors for a bearish break below 18,330 and a slide towards 18,26 levels (23.6% of post Brexit rally).
A day end closing below 23.6% Fibo could yield a move lower to 38.2% Fibo support at 18,034 levels.
On the higher side, a rebound from 23.6% Fibo support would increase odds of the index posting fresh record highs.
Dow30 - scope for correction, 23.6% Fibo stands exposedOn the daily chart, prices have looked wobbly in the last few trading session.The daily RSI has turned lower from the overbought region, while the daily MACD has turned bearish as well.
Consequently, 18,264 (23.6% Fibo of Brexit low-Record high) stands exposed.
On a larger scheme of things, bullish invalidation is seen only if prices see a daily closing below 18,167 (Apr 20 high).
Will USD/JPY drop push Dow Jones lower?USD/JPY spiked after Abe’s landslide victory on July 11 triggered speculations the government would announce a fiscal stimulus package to weaken Yen (support economy, combat deflation). Post Brexit drop in USD/JPY also triggered speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would cut rates further into negative territory/expand QE.
The ‘reflation’ trade as called by TradeSignaller analyst on our Finance show - www.youtube.com pushed up US stocks to record highs.
Reflation trade – borrow in Yen and invest in US stocks – has been noted on numerous occasions in history. Moreover, the rise in US stocks since late 2012 has been fueled by Yen drop.
We can notice on the chart above – the correlation coefficient between Dow and USD/JPY strengthened post July 11.
This makes us wonder if the drop in the USD/JPY seen today could pull Dow Jones lower with itself. Also note that USD/JPY could fall sharply if BOJ/Japanese government falls short of market expectations. In such a case, Dow Jones faces risk of a sell-off.
Dow outlook – Index may test 4-hr 100-MA support
As noted last week, Dow has volume divergence as well as RSI divergence on 4-hr chart.
Price dropping below hourly 50-MA level of 18,489 levels only adds credence to the bearish divergences noted above.
Consequently, we may see index drift lower to 18,297 (hourly 100-MA).
Dow30 – Low volumes, possible RSI divergenceWith index at record highs, it is safe to either stay on the sidelines or search for signs of a pull back.
Moreover, with stocks at record highs along with recent improvement in fundamentals, the question changes from ‘when will Fed raise rates” to “Why isn’t Fed raising rates”.
The index is showing signs of weakness on 4-hr chart
A bearish price-RSI divergence has been confirmed, RSI has breached rising trend line as well, the index now needs to breach support at 18,480 as that would add credence to bearish divergence.
A weak closing would also confirm bearish price RSI divergence on daily chart.
Look at price and volume – The entire rally from Feb lows have been accompanied by falling volumes. People have just lacked trust in the rally and hence a correction appears likely.
A corrective move could take the index down to 18,300-18,250. On the other hand, a move above 18,636 would negate the bearish divergence.
GS - Earnings beats estimates, will it break double bottom?Goldman has topped earnings expectations. CEO Lloyd Blankfein said the firm did well across all of its businesses, despite the uncertainty created by Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
Results highlight
Earnings per share of $3.72 and Revenue of $7.932 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of $3 a share on revenue of $7.581 billion, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus.
Thoughts on share price
The stock is down 9% this year. What this means is despite recent sharp recovery from June 27 low, there exists a potential for further upside in the pair. Upbeat quarterly results may just be the catalyst for further upside. However, note the strong results may have been priced-in by the markets and if so we could see 'sell the fact' trade.
Double bottom on daily chart
Double bottom neckline stands at 168.90. Monday's closing is 163.33. The recent rally from June low has seen three gap up openings. The third one is usually the sign that 'dumb' money has entered. The larger falling trend line resistance is seen around 167.50.
Unless we do not see a daily closing above double bottom neckline, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. On the other hand, a failure to take out falling trend line over next couple of weeks despite strong quarterly results could yield a fresh drop towards 140 levels.
Dow Transportation is lagging behindDow transportation index (on the left had side) is still trading inside a falling trend line and way below the record high. On the other hand, we have Dow 30 which is just a 100 points away from record high.
Note on both the charts, daily RSI is breaking higher from the falling trend. For Dow30 it means, fresh highs are possible. However, for Dow Transportation index, a breakout in the RSI won't help, simply because the index first needs to take out the falling trend line.
Investors should watch out for a failure at falling trend line hurdle in Dow transportation index as that would suggest a correction in Dow30 index.