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US30 ShortThe analysis aims to highlight the potential downside risks and factors that could contribute to a decline in the market during this period. Market Overvaluation: One of the primary concerns supporting the bearish stance is the perceived overvaluation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Throughout the past few quarters, the market has witnessed an extended rally, leading to inflated asset prices. This has created a situation where the market might be due for a correction or even a more significant reversal. Economic Uncertainty: The global economic landscape may contribute to downward pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the specified range. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and geopolitical events could create uncertainty in the markets, prompting investors to adopt a risk-off approach and exit long positions. Inflationary Pressures: Persistently rising inflation can exert negative pressure on the stock market. A surge in inflation can lead to concerns about potential interest rate hikes by central banks, which might dampen investor sentiment and drive market participants towards safer assets. Technical Indicators: Analyzing technical indicators can further support the bearish outlook. For example, if we observe declining volume alongside declining prices, it may signal a lack of conviction from buyers and potential weakness in the market. Sector-Specific Weakness: Within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, certain sectors might exhibit weakness, leading to a drag on the overall index. Disruptions in supply chains, weakening consumer spending, or regulatory challenges can weigh on specific sectors, influencing the overall market sentiment. Profit-Taking and Rotation: Given the prolonged bull market, investors may decide to lock in profits from their existing positions, causing sell-offs and leading to a potential rotation of funds into other assets. This rotation could result in reduced demand for equities, including those within the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Conclusion: Based on the bearish analysis, a short signal for the Dow Jones Industrial Average within the specified range of 35,420 to 35,455 could be justified. However, it's crucial to remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable, and trading decisions should be made with careful consideration of risk management strategies. Traders and investors should always conduct thorough research and be vigilant about any potential changes in market conditions.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by realtrademaster
1
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 Week No change to previous analysis, observing reaction to 34605-34275 area. Last Friday's up bar showed significant weakness. Possible scenario: Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again Reason: Higher low toward previous resistance, on reducing volume. The professionals may engineer a false break to suck in traders unaware of the weakness. We shall wait to short on rejection of recent high. Price Reaction Levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35750 34605-34275 32692 31657 Price Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar = NTC Daily: Ultra low vol up bar close off high = significant weakness Like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For education purpose only.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 Week Welcome myself back from holiday! Some selling into higher prices, so will watch reaction to 24605-34275 area. Possible scenario: 1) Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again 2) Higher low toward previous resistance, for long on retracement. Retracement down bars need to be on lower volume for this to happen. Price Reaction Levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35750 34605-34275 32695 31657 Price Volume Analysis: Weekly: Lower vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness Daily: Higher vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness Like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For education purpose only.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 15 May WeekCBOT_MINI:YM1! Last week's test and reject 33670 short yielded 270pts. Market approaching intermediate axis 32994. Possible scenario: 1) 32994 is supported and market returns into 33850-32994 range 2) 32994 becomes resisted and market head toward 31657/30513 Price Reaction Levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 33632 34275-34605 33850 32994-33195 31657 Price Volume Analysis: Daily & Weekly: Possible No Supply down bar close off low = strength Like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week. *For education purpose only.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCBOT_MINI:YM1! Test and reject of 34275 for first week of May: Entry: 34105 | Risk 100pts (reduced size) | Exit 33674 | Profit 430pts Now that YM has exited rotation, and tested boundary, we may see the likelihood of a rejection trade from 33670. Set your alarm there. Possible scenarios: 1) Test and reject of 33670 = short Volume Analysis: Daily: High volume breakdown from rotation, followed by lower vol up bar close off high = confirmation of supply overcoming demand H4: Lower vol up bar close off high = weakness Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35228 34605 34275 33670 32681 31657 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
Caterpillar: At site 🚧Caterpillar is at site, working on wave (2) in magenta, which should lead further downwards into the magenta-colored zone between $198.40 and $171.37. From there, the share should turn upwards again, climbing above the resistance at $266.04. However, there is a 34% chance that Caterpillar could slip through the magenta-colored zone and drop below the support at $160.02. In that case, we would expect the share to develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green first before heading upwards again.
NYSE:CAT
by MarketIntel
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 24 WEEKYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 24 WEEK Discretionary trade at the 34275 rejection yielded 350pts. With price failing to reach previous supply level 34605, could market be indicating that demand at higher levels have been exhausted? If so, we may be looking at further distribution (i.e. selling) Possible scenarios: 1) With weakness observed, wait to short at rejection at 34605 // 34275 2) Possibility of rotation between 33670 - 34275 = trade at boundary of range Volume Analysis: Daily: Possibility of buying climax. Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35228 34605 34275 33670 32681 31657 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead. CBOT_MINI:YM1!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 17 WEEKCBOT_MINI:YM1! YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 17 WEEK Previous long scenario2 at 32595 // 33590 worked well. Potential weakness observed. Market now is approx. 500pts away from 34605. Possible scenarios: 1) Trade to be guided by channel 2) With weakness observed, wait to short at channel's supply line or rejection at 35228 // or 34605 previous rejection area Volume Analysis: Weekly: higher volume up bar close off high = minor weakness Daily: Higher vol mark up to close lower, and a close below middle of bar = potential weakness Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35228 34605 33590 32595 31657 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
Walmart: Within Reach 🙌Ever been to the supermarket and couldn’t reach the topmost rack? Walmart seems to have a similar problem, struggling to let go of the mark at $150.12 to hit the turquoise zone between $152.54 and $161.76. However, we expect the share to touch at this area soon to finish wave B in turquoise. This done, it should turn downwards, returning below $150.12 and slipping further below the support at $136.09 to complete wave (A) in magenta. After a short counter movement back above $136.09, the share should drop below the support at $117.27 and into the gray zone between $116.49 and $105.01 to place the final low of wave IV in gray, which should then initiate a new upwards trend. There is a 37% chance, though, that Walmart could shoot through the turquoise zone and conquer the resistance at $161-76 directly.
NYSE:WMT
by MarketIntel
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK Price was marked up on low volume = possibility of trapping longs. Keep your stops tight if you are holding long positions. Possible scenarios: 1) Sell if False break of 33590, test and reject of recent high 2) Long on test and accept of 32595 // 33590 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high = possible selling, trapping longs Daily: Wide spread low vol up bar close off high = possible selling, trapping longs Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 35228 34605 33590 32595 31657 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
United Health: Healthy As A… Bear? 🐻… or what was that saying again? Anyway, after a short hiatus, the bears in our United Health-chart should regain their health and get back to work. They should soon push the share below the support at $456.73 and from there into the dark green zone between $427.67 and $391.43, where wave A in dark green should end. This low should then be followed by a considerable upwards movement above the resistance at $501.40. There is also a 37% chance that United Health could cold-shoulder the dark green zone and climb above $501.40 directly. In that case, we would consider wave alt.A in dark green to be already finished.
NYSE:UNH
by MarketIntel
DOW JONES almost on our target. What's next?Two weeks ago, we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down: The price has almost hit our 33100 Target and we think it is time to look into the longer term. We made a case on the idea above that Dow is currently repeating the October - November rally, as the RSI pattern is identical. In addition, that larger pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase. As a result the target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4-6 weeks at 35400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
ULong
by TradingShot
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 27 YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 27 Support long at 31747 was good. Note the trendline resistance at the moment. I'll be back in April, keep profits and rest from cold. Possible scenarios: 1) Short on reject of 32789 Volume Analysis: Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high (some supply present) Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34689 32789 30513 28635 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677
FOMC - MARCH 22, 2023 -US30 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE Hello Traders, As we approach FOMC and rate decision today, 2pm March 22, 2023 there's a possibility of continued rate hike to curb inflation and that could send Stock Markets down. Key Points: VIX - Volatility Index is bullish for the week Commodities - Bearish for the week A rate increase is favourable for USD from an Investor's perspective. Overall economic outlook is bearish considering global world issues i.e: Russia/Ukraine, recession, inflation, etc. Chart analysis shows clear picture based on trend lines, BOC, CHOC, and imbalance areas from prior week. Anyways, always trade what you are comfortable with losing. Until next time! The Trading Regime.
U
by EvaultFinancialGroup
Will the FOMC continue the US30s run higher?Traders will be looking forward to today’s FOMC seeking future direction on rates as inflation starts to cool but remains high. The new banking crisis has also significantly influenced the markets over the last several weeks. Stocks have been one of the markets hardest hit by the uncertainty thrown up by the banking crisis. The US30, in particular, has been hard hit, and sellers cut just over 7% off the index in four weeks. Looking at recent price action, we can see some buyer confidence returning after bailouts, and political action was taken to help stop the rout. The US30 held support and broke its tight range yesterday with a 0.98% rally. Inflation and rates had been key influences before the banking issues arose. Today’s FOMC could play an important role in the short term. Rates are now basically priced in with a 25-point increase, and Fed trackers see a 15% chance of a hold at an 85% chance of a 25-point increase. The statement for us is the important part unless we see a hold which would be unexpected and should give the US30 a boost through its trendline. If the Fed remains hawkish and discounts the banking issues, this could set off selling with worry over higher rates and possible inaction to support the sector. If the message is more to the dovish side, we will be looking for further upside from the new up leg, and hopefully, a break of the current trend could show signs that the correction could be starting to wain. Minor resistance remains at 32,600, and support is seen at 31,850. Price continues to hold a series of LHs and LLs, but a new push higher could break that pattern. The short term comes down to the fed message, which will be released at 05:00 am AEDT with the Federal funds rate. The press conference follows at 05:30 am.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
Home Depot: Diligent ⚙️As a hard worker, Home Depot has just recently nailed down wave X in green, hitting our green target zone between $282.54 and $260.03. From this low, the share has already started the anticipated ascent and thus should soon reach the resistance line at $347.25. Next, Home Depot should saw through this mark and climb into the gray zone between $360.98 and $402.97 to tape down wave b in gray before turning downwards again. The following descent should then lead the course back below $347.25 and subsequently below the support at $260.03. There is a 37% chance, though, for Home Depot to drop below this level early. In that case, we would assume that the share has last developed waves alt.1 and alt.2 in green instead of waves (A) and (B) in magenta and thus has already finished wave alt.b in gray.
NYSE:HD
by MarketIntel
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20 YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 20 During the week, the formation of A-A1 rotation offered rotational play opportunity. Demand has built up, with weekly bar showing loss of selling momentum. But it takes time for the vessel to turn, so wait for support to manifest before going long Possible scenarios: 1) Rotational play between 31750 - 32600 (approx 850pts range) 2) Continuation long = long on retracement, to test 33590 3) Short if 31747 was broken through and becomes resistance Volume Analysis: Weekly: Higher vol, narrower spread down bar close off low = reduced downward momentum Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward off (non-trend changing) Price reaction levels Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 34689 32789 31747 31097 30513 Remember to like and follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable week ahead.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by paradox677