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DOW Industrials (DOWI)

DOWI: The next three days are importantThe next three days are very important for DOWI. In deed we are on the eve of the TENKAN-KIJUN twist far outside the Kumo cloud, which may very much mean that if the reversal is confirmed, this will be preety strong. On the Kumo Cloud side of the story, although the next 23 periods appears to be on the upside of the story, if the Candle are crossing the cloud, it may cross at the thinner part of the cloud, which means that it will be an easy crossing down the cloud. The Lagging span's path is also important. If the Lagging span starts crossing the candles, it may be very much the second signal.. Let's wait and see. On the macro economic side, bare in mind the end of QE3 in Ocotber, no change in interest rate at FED i.e figures are yet not as good as one would expect, ECB's QE is not as strong as market was expecting. Geopolitical environment is doji but yet not enough to have a clear impact but uncertainties for the market
DJ:DJI
by Pashabxl
A crash may occur shortly. No, but really!Here is my logic: 1. Fundamentals don't support record highs. High stock prices don't represent real economic activity. Unemployment. situation still not pre-crises levels yet prices are way above that. 2. Oil showing lack of demand. 3. US dollar becoming more expensive. End of low exchange rate. 4. China weakening as well as imports. 5. End of easy money and fed soon to increase rates. The first rate rise in a while will certainly be a shock. 6. Geopolitical tensions with new sanctions on Russia and a new Iraq war vs Isis. 7. September is a historically the worst month for stocks. 8. We are way overdue for a market correction. 9. Low volatility and consolidation showing breakout is about to happen. I don't think it will be up. 10. Strong resistance about 17100 11. Europe potentially falling back into Recession. In any case, going short is a good idea as the risk/reward ratio is pretty good. September is historically a bad month but October saw the biggest market drops in 1987, 1929 and 2001. I'm saying short the market until the end of October I think there is a good decent chance of some good profits. www.thealphagenerator.com
DJ:DJIShort
by maccabean
5
DOWI. A GENUINE DOUBLE TOP ? Well, we can hardly make such a genuine double top. It is rare to see such a precision. Of course, we do not know yet if it is a genuine douple top or not. A lot of signals show that it may be very much, but we need to see the next candle. On the other hand, macro economic news are not of a kind to fluel the market. If THIS CHART is a confirmed DOUBLE TOP, the neck line is at 16333, and after a little pull back of the trend, the index may very much go until 15800 at least baring in mind that this is a very important support and resistance level
DJ:DJIShort
by Pashabxl
VIX: Towards a change of trendThe Stock Exchanges are rather overperforming. The economic datas are not that good, but the market is expecting ECB President Draghi to release fresh money in the market. But there may be a reason to release the money in the market and thus this would only be possible when the market go to a severe correction otherwise, tax payer would not understand the reason and there would be no legal ground for ECB to release the European QE. In addition to that, there will be at least a technical correction on the market, i.e technical correction of VIX. On a purely chartist approach as far as VIX is concerned, we may be very much in front of a double bottom and you would see the neck line on the chart. If volatility index is increasing, Indexes may fall. Therefore, it would be a nice ground for ECB to launch its EQE.
CBOE:VIX
by Pashabxl
VIX: Towards an upside correction so Indexes downWhen trading Indexes, it is always good to have a look on the volatility index and with Ichimoku, it is clear that the upside movement is very near. The indicators such as STOCH or RSI show that we are either at oversold level like STOCH or about to reach it with RSI. The Kumo Cloud shows a clear future turn in the trend. It means that when VIX is up, indexes are down .Just as a reminder and an reference one has to look and keep in mind
CBOE:VIXLong
by Pashabxl
4
DOWI: 2nr Correction processOn a chartist analysis we can clearly see that there is a double top formation. The next days i.e Monday 26th will be a day that will clearly confirm the double top formation or not. Based on indicator, DOWI is already very high and a down side correction is again imminent. If there is a double top formation which I do consider for sometime now, therefore, the neckline is at 16333, and after a pull back, DOWI may go down to 15600-15800. Bare in mind that it is also at the time when QE3 will end. FED will not yet increase its interest rate, but for investor, it may be time to cash in some gain since September 2012 when QE3 have begun. On the downside of the story the correction may be very wild. But there is still cheap money in the market baring in mind that FED's Chief Yellen said that her institution will not only consider the unemployment rate and inflation as a benchmark for the increase of the interest rate. Let's wait and see
DJ:DJIShort
by Pashabxl
DOWI: Toward a formation of a double top?The ichimoku chart shows that DOWI will go a little bit on the upside, but indicators show that there isn't a lot of room left on the upside. Tenkan Kijun twist may occur inside the cloud wich would announce a soft upside. Having an eye on the Kumo cloud and particularly on the next days show that there is a twist and confirme a reversal, at least a correction on the downside in the coming days. Therefore, if DOWI reaches 17080 or around on the upside, this may very much be a double top. This would then suggesgtthat the neck line is at 16333 and after a little upside correctio, the index may go down until 16000 or 15800. Having said that, bare in mind that 1-FED didn't decide yet to increase its interest rate. 2- There is still cheap money in the market. Therefore, the correction process is a fact, but we are not yet in a Bear market although this may happen sooner or later.
DJ:DJI
by Pashabxl
1
VIX: Hedgind the Indexes correctionMArket was too over confident. But if you keep an ear to CB's managers ie Draghi, Yellen and other, world economy is in a good path, and even if it is not, we will ease the monetary situation and continue to provide liquidity. But because of the correction the market is facing, VIX may move upside in order to hedge the short position on Indexes. On on purely chartist approach, we are at the eve on an end cycle of a falling wedge... Indicator show in initial move towards upside.
CBOE:VIXLong
by Pashabxl
3
SPX-DOWI- DAX _NASDAQ-CAC- SMI SHORT vs VIX LONGHere we are. As forseen for several days, the correction on indexes has been ignited. SPX has started the initiative following by DOWI DAX NASDAQ CAC SMI and tomorrow it will continue with IBEX35. On the other hand, VIX jump up one to a sudden. The midway to the correction may be around 1840-1820. Here we are.... At last....In the mean time those who are selling should put there money somewhere, and you can correct me if I am wrong, but the money will be spread between, those who are seeking for volatilities i.e GOLD WTI, and those who wants to secure there money i.e EUR for a last test towards 1.372. Let's wait and see.
SP:SPXShort
by Pashabxl
1
DOWI: At the final stage of QE3I've been watching and analysing the impact of QE on DOWI since the very first quantitative easing executed from US FED on November 2008. Just to recall the important dates, QE2 on Nov 2010, and QE3 on September 2012. Based on the effect of QE1 and QE2 on the market, I have tried to make a projection on the possible high DOWI would meet with QE3. And my highest high was 16606. I do still keep that level. I have already told my level even yesterday on a chart with regard the state of play of DOWI. And that is why, contrary to a regular Fib Retracement where you take as a reference the lowest point and the highest point, or the otherway around if you are on descending trend, I am always taking as a highest high my 16606 level. Above 16606, it is an overbought and a long term non sustainable speculative level for me. And when I use my highest high as a benchmark, Fib retracement level can still be used as a support or resistance level since the last QE3. I have not taken yet into account a possible European Central Bank intervention on the market based on a possible ABS, or an a possible European QE. Therefore my point still remain that at the present position, based on indicators, above 16606 still remain illusive because we are about to come to an overbought level if we do take into account William %R for example, or STOCH. The diagonal of the Fibo retracement is also a "natural" raising wedge drawing as you may see on the chart. Therefore, on medium term basis, and pending any announce from the ECB on June 4th, one should be very careful about any market situation above 16606....
DJ:DJIShort
by Pashabxl
DOWI-VIX correlation show that the market is too BULL?When we do add DOWI and VIX charts one on the other, we can clearly see the correlation between the two indexes. When the market is too BULL, VIX is at a very low level. VIX level is too low, and shows an overconfidence of the market. Immediatly a correction, that can be severe in deed is following. Putting a side the technical indicators, we may be able to anticipate a correction. Of course this chart doesn't show the level of correction, but at least, an idea of the timing of it and the short term trend
CBOE:VIXShort
by Pashabxl