Get started

DOW Industrials (DOWI)

Dow Industrials ready to have a major reversal?This is a follow up from 2 months ago when I suggested there would be one final up move in the Dow which started right after that. At that time I thought the likely stopping point of the rally would be the solid top black line which has now been reached. If we get a clear reversal pattern now I think we will be starting a major bear market. Of course it the market blasts through this line the next likely stopping point would be the next up "fan" line. Good time to watch closely. Take care. Goodguy.
DJ:DJIShort
by goodguy
A look at the DJ Transports index to predict market directionThe Dow Jones Transports index is considered a good indicator of what the next move will be affecting the wider market. The reason for this is because transports are a good indication of economic health. Lower patronage and goods moving means lower economic activity. A few notes about the chart. The orange line is the DJ30. 1. Looking at the first green flag in December we can see the start of the diverging indices that were previously highly correlated. The Transports drops off heavily in early December with the DJ30 following soon after, a month later. 2. The low of the Transports comes first and then rises. The DJ30 followed a month later with a low but that low is not matched by the DJ Transports. Again a leading indicator. 3. The DJ Transports spiked downwards on Friday but then regained its level. Should the indicator drop below the support trend again and close, the price could fall much further. If this is not matched by the DJ30, then divergence will continue to increase. 4. MACD indicator show crossover which is bearish. A fall below the RSI support level would confirm bearish direction. 5. It is possible the transports high was hit on the 21st of March. I'm expecting the DJ30 high to be hit within the next 20 days. Possibly as early as next week.
DShort
by maccabean
SPY last breath to go?Right now, spy seems like on its wave 4th. The weekly trend line has not been broken yet. A good signal is SPY across the 100 EMA and stands right at the 200 EMA. However, charts usually jumps up and down between average lines before they waterfall. Another weak signal shows us that MACD is now functioning below 0 line. To me, I don't expect SPY go any higher then 208(could be a dead end). Also, I will go completely bearish if the weekly trend line broke and charts stayed under EMAs. For now, we still can make some money in this choppy market though.
AMEX:SPY
by mduck
Update on Dow Industrials. I still love this chart.Six months ago I published this chart thinking we were likely at THE top. The Dow Industrials have gone down since. Now I favor there likely soon will be one more pop up in stocks. I've noticed that the recent price action in many of the indices appears to be an expanding triangle pattern which is usually a sideways consolidation before the major trend resumes. I can't say I understand Fib fans but as we have all seen there appears to be a secret Fibonacci hand influencing a lot of charts. What amazes about this chart is that so many critical turning points are touching these lines. Since the last posting the price has again nearly returned to one of the lines. (at 4). Still could go a little lower to hit the line. Will it bounce from there as it did from 2? It seems likely to me. I favor it all may top out at the thicker solid black line but if it does rise it also make it to the next up Fib line. Have a great weekend and don't forget to love up your loved ones on Valentines day.
DJ:DJILong
by goodguy
SPX 2016... Historical Trends and Chart Analysis This is an SPX Chart that outlines historical trends and explain what could happen if SPX is consistent in its behavior during a crisis. To be able to predict the future one has to study the past. During the 2000 Internet Bubble & 2007 Financial Crisis S&P 500 shed about 50% of it's Value (in both crisis). And it fell to same support line which is between 800 (2000) and 700 level (2009). FORECAST Feb. 2016 Forward IF S&P 500 act is consistent in CRISIS MODE, we should expect it to shed close to 50% from the 2015 high (2100). This should reach 1100 LEVEL...From crisis, the down trend continued for about 14 months. IN BOTH PREVIOUS CRISIS IT TOOK ABOUT A YEAR+ TO THE BOTTOM. AGAIN IF S&P 500 IS CONSISTENT IN IT'S' BEHAVIOR DURING CRISIS WE SHOULD SEE NEAR BOTTOM BY END OF 2016 EARLY 2017 What's the bottom? It is hard to predict, but according to the above, it could be any of the support levels in the chart. Best case scenario, is we bounce of 1500 Level and market recover. Worst case scenario is we trend down and pass 1400 and 1300 support levels all the way to 1090 level. Current global economic and political signals are not favorable, plus the over valuation of equities in US and China is adding a sell pressure that is felt across global markets. Oil is a political game and can fluctuate or shoot up any given time, this will not make the market more volatile. Please note the above is based on the assumption "IF SPX is consistent in its behavior in Crisis mode".
FX:SPX500Short
by Jay_Trading
Monthly: Is DOW scare drop finally on the door steps!!! Please read earlier post if you are seeing this chart for 1st time. - The red line did dip below zero mark and we got our bounce, now the panic drop is on the door steps .... get short or get out of the way.... Path of least resistance appears to be on downside and we might get a significant drop from current level. We speculate that a drop close to 14000 (approx 20%) is viable and very much likely considering global events, however it will set a stage for next major BULL market. All this might happen in next 6-12 months so get ready for a roller coaster ride....
DJ:DJIShort
by isitpossible
Dow Jones Transportation Average Hinting Of Trouble AheadWe normally don't publish equity ideas but this chart is worth noting as it directly relates to the U.S. economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average are highly correlated for many reasons as you can imagine. A quick look at the chart and you will see the current divergence in that correlation. Simple said, if an economy is not producing many goods than there is less need for shipping, indicating the economy is slowing or struggling. Historically the Dow Jones Transportation Average leads the Dow Jones Industrial Average and at the very least lends confirmation to the Industrial Average.
DJ:DJTShort
by unique4x
1
Simple RSI-MA Algo Beats DOW By Huge Margin Over Past 100 Years!This simple RSI-MA long/short algorithm beats the Dow by a FREAKING HUGE margin over the past century (excluding dividends and trading costs). The algorithm uses a fast SMA of the RSI as a buy/cover signal and a slow SMA of the RSI as a sell/short signal. Backtest period = 09/17/1916 - 11/02/2015 DJIA = 98 --> 17,830 = +18,094% = 5.38% CAGR Algorithm = net profit + open P/L = +43,349% = 6.31% CAGR Notice how the algorithm dodged both the 30s' Great Depression and the 2008 Crisis. Pretty cool huh? :) ALGORITHM'S FORMULA (use weekly chart): Buy/Cover = MA10(RSI10) cross> 50 Sell/Short = MA50(RSI10) cross< 50 STRATEGY TESTER'S SETTINGS: - Initial cash = $10,000 - Pyramiding disabled - Re-investment enabled (order size = 100% of equity) - Trade re-calculations disabled DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
DJ:DJI
by Stable_Camel
4
The DOW seems to have lost some support.My vertex hypothesis states that before major trend changes, the vertices on their respective parabolas will be generated on their moving average parabolas (minimum or maximum points in which the slope of the tangent line is zero). A common metric for bearish vs bullish market cycles is the price action being below or above the 200 daily moving average, respectively. In the above chart, the DOW, for the first time in a long time, is showing its 200DMA as declining, similar to drops in 2008, for example. Prices remain below the 200DMA -- indicating the beginning of a bear cycle -- and if the 200DMA is not taken back, we could see drops to the Fibonacci retracement levels of $13.8k and $12.4k.
DJ:DJIShort
by RespectRiskManagement
1
Why you should be buying more stocks now...The chart presented is a Comparison of the 30 Year Bond and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Notice how the extreme Peaks in bond prices (hitting the upper trend line) starts a strong rally in Equities and also vise versa. Its a good time to buy stocks, and short bonds. With the Feb raising rate some time in the future, I expect bond price to fall and the the next major top can be estimated when the price hits the lower trend-line. Until then the Trend is your friend...The projections made are just estimates based on the average of the two last occurrences of this pattern. Bullish !
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by aravindran1